The Kalin Lucas No-News Smorgasbord
by LVS on Feb 8, 2010 4:35 PM CST
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So, will our sidelined assassin play tomorrow? There are a number of pieces out today on the topic, and while none of them fully clarify the situation, they do, collectively, provide hints as to what's going on. Your first contestant: Shannon Shelton!
"It’s improving, but it’s not 100% -- and we’re not looking for it to be 100%," Izzo said. "So we’re up in the air on that."
"If you look at his ankle, it doesn’t look nearly as swollen as I’ve seen others. But he just can’t cut on it. I think he has a chance to play, but the better question is, at what level?"
Mike DeCourcy has more, and some grist for optimism:
Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said Monday star point guard Kalin Lucas "told me he's going to try to play" in Tuesday's Big Ten showdown against surging Purdue. [ . . .]The reigning Big Ten player of the year, Lucas is averaging 15.6 points for the 19-5 Spartans. Lucas participated in a walk-through Sunday night and has done some layup
drills. "He was feeling somewhat better," Izzo said. "He wants to play, and he'll play if it's 5 minutes. It's not one of those prima donna things."
Of course, Draymond Green is even more optimistic:
"We're hoping Kalin is back," forward Draymond Green said Monday. "We're pretty confident he will be." [ . . . ]
"He's a warrior," said Green of Lucas. "He's not going to sit out [against the Boilermakers] if he doesn't have to."
Of course, Day Day's opinion may be informed more by emotion than by reality. Nonetheless, he's probably onto something here: the team is semi-reeling after two losses, and badly needs a turnaround at home tomorrow. If Saturday night's game taught us anything, it's that this team is better off with even a not-quite-healthy Kalin Lucas running the point than it is with a healthy Korie Lucious or Chris Allen.
Rexrode gets the final blockquote:
The guess here is Kalin Lucas dresses and tries to play Tuesday night. Draymond Green said he expects Lucas to play. Tom Izzo said Lucas "has some Cleaves in him."
. . . and I agree with what he says. Knowing what we do now, I'd look for Kalin to start tomorrow night.
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The Michigan State athletics department is asking fans to wear white to the MSU-Purdue men's basketball game on Feb. 9 as a gesture of uniform support for the Spartans. The Spartans and Boilermakers will tip off at 9 p.m. White t-shirts are available at GMC Kiosk on the Breslin Center concourse outside Section 110. Fans can receive a free t-shirt in exchange for filling out a short GMC survey.
So close, yet so far: Illinois 78, Michigan State 73
by KJ@theonlycolors on Feb 7, 2010 12:14 AM CST
in Basketball
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I think we have to start with the player bullets tonight. We'll go roughly from the very good to the very bad; the range of Spartan performances was unusually large in this game.
- It's a shame MSU lost this game if for no other reason that it will probably prevent Draymond Green's performance from reaching truly legendary status. And it deserves that status: 17 points, 16 rebounds (6 on offense), 3 assists (3 TOs), and one blocked shot against a player who's at least 7 inches taller than he is. That assist figure understates the extent to which Green was the primary playmaker for the Spartans tonight. See, for example, the back-to-back passes to Morgan in the lane late in the game, the first of which turned into 2 points at the line and the second of which resulted in, the officials decided, a jump ball. It's not hyperbolic to say that Draymond Green single-handedly prevented this game from being an MSU loss by 15+ points.
- . . . as evidenced by the fact that the second guy on this list is the player who started the game at point guard and was, not to put to fine a point on it, an unmitigated disaster in that position. Chris Allen turned the ball over on 2 of MSU's first 6 possessions, in both cases on miscues of the clearly-not-meant-to-be-a-point-guard variety. After Korie Lucious entered the game at the 14:44 mark, Allen did not return to point guard duties. To his credit, he shook off the POINT GUARD FAIL and performed quite nicely as a shooting guard, hitting 4 of 6 three-pointers to pull MSU back from the brink on two different occasions.
- Your most efficient point guard tonight? That would be first-time-ever-in-real-action walk-on Mike Kebler. 2 assists and ZERO turnovers in 5 minutes. He got the ball up the court, found open shooters or other players who could initiate offensive moves toward the basketball, and played more-than-adequate defense. (The MSU offense was most successful at the end of the game when Lucious followed the Kebler model: get the ball up the court and then find an open player who can initiate the offense.) If Kalin Lucas can't play Tuesday night, I think we need to see Kelber in double-digit minutes against Purdue.
- Garrick Sherman scored 6 points in 15 minutes. He also played very good defense on Mike Tisdale, forcing a travel and the world's ugliest looking hook shot attempt.
- Durrell Summers only managed 11 points on 13 FGA. But he was solid with the ball in his hands (2 assists, zero turnovers) and hit the 3-pointer that gave us life in the final half-minute.
- Delvon Roe: 8 points and 2 rebounds in 20 minutes. A couple authoritative moves to the basket--one for a monstrous dunk, one for an and-one layup.
- Isaiah Dahlman and Austin Thornton each scored a basket in first-half appearances (both assisted by Green, if I'm not mistaken). Thornton's was particularly notable--a jumper at the buzzer to close within 1 point going into halftime. Three rebounds for Thornton, too.
- Raymar Morgan made some key plays in this game, but disappeared for large stretches. Only 8 points on 6 FGA in a team-high 34 minutes (also: 3 each of rebounds, assists, and turnovers). I realize it's a tough gig for Morgan to find offensive opportunities without an effective point guard in the game, but your senior star has to find more ways to contribute in this situation. He also lost Mike Davis on multiple opportunities, allowing Davis to knock down several of his plethora of 15- to 18-foot jumpers. (To be fair, Green lost him a few times, too.)
- Derrick Nix: Pretty good defense in the opening minutes of the game. Picked up 2 quick fouls in the opening minutes of the second half.
- That brings us to Korie Lucious. As bad as Lucious' stat line was--1 for 5 from the field, 3 assists, 6 turnovers--it really doesn't fully reflect how ineffective he was in his 27 minutes on the court. He looked overmatched and overanxious for almost the entire game. Tom Izzo tried to take some pressure off him by not starting him, but he still looked like he was pressing. Even his dribbling skills--normally a strength--seemed to fail him, and he telegraphed a multitude of passes. You hate to pin a loss on one player being asked to take on a significantly-increased role in a hostile environment, but you have to think that, had Lucious been just average tonight, MSU wins this game.
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Aftermisery Thread: Illinois 78, Michigan State 73.
by LVS on Feb 6, 2010 10:35 PM CST
in Basketball
30 comments
State fought valiantly, but was ultimately done in by a 27.4 offensive TO%, Illinois' otherworldly offensive efficiency (120.7!), and a virtuoso performance by Demetri McCamey. It's an understandable and predictable loss, but it still hurts. Tuesday's game against Purdue looms large, and Kalin needs to heal at warp speed.
KJ will have your recap later this evening. Until then, vent here.
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Game Thread: Spartans vs. Illini
by KJ@theonlycolors on Feb 6, 2010 7:30 PM CST
in Basketball
351 comments
As you've surely heard already, Kalin Lucas is not playing tonight. Thus, Korie Lucious is almost certainly your starting point guard, Chris Allen is your back-up point guard, and Raymar Morgan is the only team captain in the starting lineup.
Nonetheless, there are 12 healthy players on scholarship to play basketball for Michigan State University. Let's see what they've got.
Go Green. Beat the Illini.
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Preview: Michigan State vs. Illinois
by LVS on Feb 6, 2010 1:25 AM CST
in Basketball
27 comments
ASSEMBLY HALL, CHAMPAIGN, ILLINOIS
9:00 PM (ET), ESPN (DAN SHULMAN, DICK VITALE, ERIN ANDREWS).
ONLINE RADIO FEED: WJR
ENEMY BLOG: HAIL TO THE ORANGE
- 15-8 (7-3). Since we last saw Illinois, they've suffered losses to Purdue (home) and Northwestern (away), followed by three wins against Penn State (away), Indiana (home), and Iowa (away).
- Illinois has cleaned up against the bottom of the conference (6-1) -- but as that number suggests, their schedule is quite back-loaded, and thus the gaudy-ish record is a bit misleading. KenPom projects the Illini to go 2-6 in the last 8 games of the conference season.
- KenPom ranks the Illini 55th in the country and 6th in the conference. Their tempo-free profile is unremarkable: 64th in offensive efficiency, and 59th in defensive efficiency. They're relatively stingy about turning the ball over (17.9 TO%, 38th nationally) and almost never have their shots blocked (4.5% offensive block rate, 1st nationally), but are very poor at getting to the foul line (31.1 FTA/FGA, 306th nationally).
- 7 Illinois players average more than 17 minutes per game, and an 8th averages 13.9. The Illini are lead in most offensive categories by Demetri McCamey, who averages 15.1 ppg and 6.2 apg. Mike Tisdale, D.J. Richardson, and Mike Davis each average more than 10 ppg. Richardson is additionally a major threat from long range (44% from behind the arc). Freshman Tyler Griffey, who scored 12 points against MSU a few weeks ago, has also continued to emerge: he's started the last two games.
Three weeks ago, Illinois led for most of the first half at the Breslin Center. Then, MSU seized control before halftime, and pulled away at the beginning of the second half. The lead got as big as 23 before we sleepwalked through the last 8ish minutes of play, and ultimately emerged with a 10 point win. KJ recapped thusly:
Perhaps the biggest positive from this game was how well the MSU interior players played against arguably the conference's top power forward/center combo. Delvon Roe, Draymond Green, and Raymar Morgan combined for 36 points on 22 FG attempts (official box score is here). On the other side, Mike Tisdale struggled with foul trouble, finishing with just 2 points and 1 rebound in 19 minutes. And Mike Davis took 15 FG attempts to get to 11 points, as MSU denied him space to operate around the lane. [ . . . ]
The perimeter defense was pretty solid, too. The D.J. Richardson/Brandon Paul freshman guard combo was held to 10 points on a whopping 21 FG attempts. Demetri McCamey showed flashes of brilliance, scoring 15 points on 10 FG attempts, but, after coming out and hitting the first two shots of the game, he never really imposed himself on the game. [ . . . ]
After looking really out of sorts early on, Kalin Lucas turned things around to score 20 points on 12 FG attempts (8-9 at the line). And Korie Lucious had his best game in quite a while, with 8 points, 4 assists, and zero turnovers in a career-high 27 minutes. He came in early and played well at the point when Lucas was struggling; he threw a couple passes on the fast break that were stunning in their execution . . . Chris Allen (1-5 from the field) and Durrell Summers (3-10), meanwhile, never found any offensive rhythm. Summers continues to be a force on the boards, though: 9 rebounds, 4 of them on offense.
Lucious's performance takes on even more meaning in light of his (presumed) expanded responsibilities on Saturday. Of course, improved showings from Allen and especially Summers are even more necessary now.
Kalin Lucas's injury has been analyzed and analyzed and analyzed; the consensus seems that his injury isn't as bad as feared, but that there's virtually no way he'll play in Champaign. If this was the national championship game, perhaps he'd pull a Mateen Cleaves and hobble out from the dressing room onto the court. But at this point in the season, that's neither necessary nor desirable; the risk of further injury is too much to risk for a game we're fully capable of winning without him. Nonetheless denying that the loss hurts is silly: this may not be the best Illini team we've ever seen, but Assembly Hall is a loud and menacing place, and navigating the environment without our point guard and leader is a tall order indeed.
As KJ noted, Illinois is the only team in the conference that starts two true post players (Tisdale and Davis), so on Saturday, the minutes gap may be plugged by Nix and Sherman. As for the guard situation:
On offense, Korie Lucious will be the primary ball-handler every minute he's on the floor. As much as the offense tends to look somewhat disjointed when Lucious is running the show, we should keep in mind that we're implicitly comparing him to one of the top 3 or 4 point guards in the country. Lucious is a very talented playmaker who's put up serviceable numbers this season: .409/.333/.889 shooting line and a 2.4 assist/turnover ratio. He's going to make mistakes; the trick will be bouncing back from those mistakes and keeping the team on as even a keel as possible.
Without a true third point guard on scholarship, Chris Allen will be the emergency point guard when Lucious needs a rest (the news reports confirm that Allen is practicing at the point). That makes sense for a couple reasons: He's not shooting the ball well right now anyway (0-5 on 3-pointers in the last 3 games) and he's been handling the ball up top with Lucas running off the ball a fair amount of late. Allen's assist-to-turnover ratio in conference play (2.7 to 1.7) actually compares favorably to Lucas' (3.8 to 2.5). The struggle will be if opponents choose to pressure Allen in the back court. In that case, we're likely to see a team approach to bringing the ball up. Durrell Summers is probably Allen's equal in terms of pure dribbling ability.
The biggest problem on offense is going to be what happens when offensive possessions break down and someone needs to create a shot with the shot clock running down. Lucious is just 29-68 on 2-point attempts in 51 career games. Allen and Summers can take the ball to the hoop, but that usually only happens off pump fakes. Asking them do it with an opposing defender squared up with them is a recipe for a charging call.
The ballhandling situation may be relatively manageable, as Illinois' defensive TO% is only 19.0, only good for 253rd in the country (although we did turn the ball over 23% of the time against them in East Lansing). Lucas's absence presents an opportunity for Draymond Green to show his true versatility: he'll probably be called on to hit the mid-range jumper with more regularity, and additionally to be a major distributor on offense. Furthermore, we rebounded 40% of our missed shots against the Illini last month, and a similar effort would go a long way toward a victory. With Lucas out, we may struggle to get open looks at the basket. What we lose in FG%, perhaps we can make up for in second and third chances.
MSU has won at Assembly Hall the last two seasons, including last season's Dance of Joy-inducing conference title-clincher. Getting the third in a row won't be easy; the students will be extra loud given that 1) it's a night game, and 2) the presence of GameDay all afternoon will slowly lather them into a frenzy.
KenPom, whose computer obviously knows nothing of Lucas's injury, predicts a 71-70 MSU victory. This is probably the most important game of the season thusfar for Your Spartans: a loss, and we head back to East Lansing with the outright conference lead in jeopardy next Tuesday; a win would prove the team's resiliency and reaffirm our pole position for a Big Ten championship. Time to win a big one.
P.S.: I'll hate you on Saturday, Orange Krush, but this is an epic, epic win. Tip of the cap in your general direction.
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Coaching Tree Article
by TheCrestedHelm on Feb 5, 2010 12:06 PM CST
3 comments
[Bumped. Haven't looked at the O'Neil article yet, but the YABB post is full of stupendous blogginess. -KJ]
I found this Dana O'Neil article via the Yet Another Basketball Blog. Both the article and blog post are on coaching trees. We all know that the Heathcote/Izzo tree is pretty impressive but I was unaware that Tom Crean has had four assistants that have gone on to get head coaching gigs. At this rate of growth by the time both Crean and Izzo retire it may be as impressive as the Pitino tree, which is very long. Also, congratulations to Stan Heath - his USF Bulls beat Georgetown at home Wednesday night. He has USF at .500 in Big East play.
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Our identity and branding process is nearing completion and is on schedule for a complete rollout in April. The elements and applications of the brand design will be unveiled collectively at that time. After careful consideration, we will use the current Spartan logo design, first used in the late 1970s, to build our visual brand identity.
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KJ@theonlycolors
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