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Around SBN: College Football Preseason Top 25 Rankings

Mining the Box Score: Northwestern Edition

Greg_jones_medium

Here's to the linebackers.  (Photo credit: MSU FB page.)

MSU-NW box score is here.  Up-to-date MSU season statistics are here.  Up-to-date Big Ten statistical leaders are here.

Bullet-pointing through the numbers from Saturday:

  • How do you beat a team that gains 3 more first downs than you do (22-19) by 10 points?  One way is to give up the majority of those first downs on your opponent's side of the field.  Of Northwestern's 13 offensive possessions, 10 resulted in drives of at least 20 yards.  But 8 of those drives ended with 41 yards or less of yardage, meaning the Wildcats got into the redzone just twice (scoring touchdowns both times).  The bend-but-don't-break thing definitely worked Saturday.  The question is whether the success was a function of (a) the MSU defense buckling down once Northwestern crossed midfield, (b) the Northwestern spread offense stalling out when it had less room to work with downfield, or (c) good old-fashioned random good fortune.  (Option (b) seems unlikely to me, since Kafka threw downfield pretty infrequently.)

Star-divide

  • Continuing on that line of thought: A combined 39 tackles for the 3 starting linebackers (15 for Eric Gordon, 14 for Greg Jones, 10 for Brandon Denson).  Once again, Pat Narduzzi stuck with the base 4-3 defense for 90% of the defensive snaps, even against 4- and 5-WR sets.  It seemed like Northwestern was picking up 5-10 gains at will on passes toward the sidelines all game, but in the end the linebackers made enough plays to get those 8 Northwestern drives in the 20-to-41-yard range to stall out.  And, as Pete noted in the game recap, 4.5 of those 39 tackles went for a loss.  The result was cumulative losses of 22 yards for Mike Kafka, partially offsetting the 64 yards he picked up eluding Spartan tacklers all afternoon.  (He was particularly elusive against MSU defensive linemen, who recorded just 1.0 TFLs.)
  • 47 pass attempts and 18 rush attempts by Kafka (including the 3 sacks) for Northwestern vs. 6 rush attempts by running backs.  That's the definition of a one-man show.  Easy to see why Kafka seemed to run out of gas on the two final Wildcat drives.
  • Zero sacks allowed by the MSU O-line. This may sound repetitive, but Kirk Cousins had all day to throw the ball all day.
  • The result: 4 pass completions of 20 yards or more to Blair White.  3 of them in the 2nd half, when Don Treadwell seemed to stumble on the concept of the play-action pass.
  • Only one pass completion to a tight end this week (Charlie Gantt).  Can we bust the Ganthisimslek monster out against Iowa, please?
  • Total of 18 yards in negative results for the two running backs.  The telegraphing of the runs up the middle needs to stop.

First-down stats:

  • 15 rushing attempts for 83 yards (5.5 yards/carry).  Two of those attempts were a first-and-goal from the four and a Keshawn Martin end around.  Of the 13 first-and-10 carries by running backs, 8 went for 4 yards or more.  The run blocking was actually pretty darn good when the defense didn't necessarily know a run was coming.  Only one first down run went for a loss (of 3 yards); the other 15 negative RB rushing yards came in (presumably) shorter-yardage situations in which the Wildcats were expecting the run.
  • 9-13 on passing attempts for 119 yards (69.2% Comp%, 9.2 yards/attempt).  And one of the 4 incompletions was a dropped pass by Martin that would have gone for a healthy gain.  First-down play-action passes = YES, PLEASE.

In the full-season stats category:

  • Still the #1 passing offense in the league: total yardage (280.4/game), yards/attempt (8.5), TD-INT ratio (15-7), and pass efficiency (146.3).
  • We've crept up to #6 in rushing yardage per game but (1) we're over 20 yards/game behind the #5 team and (2) our numbers are skewed upward by the low number of sacks allowed.  (Nichol/Cousins rushing yards may also be a factor, although there are certainly other Big Ten teams with mobile QBs.)  For the season, MSU running backs are averaging just 3.85 yards/carry.  Take out the Montana State game and that number drops to 3.71.
  • Put it all together and we rank #3 in both total offense and total scoring.
  • Blair White now ranks 4th in the league in receiving yards per game (90.7) and 2nd in receiving TDs (6).
  • Somehow, the MSU defense now ranks 4th in the conference in scoring defense and 5th in total defense.  In both cases, I'd note we're there's a large gap between the top 3 defenses in the league (Penn State, Ohio State, Iowa) and the #4 team.
  • Third in the league in rush defense.  I think that ranking would hold even if you backed out lost yardage from sacks.
  • Ninth in the league in pass defense--although we're in the middle of a clump of 6 teams within 15 yards/game of each other.  (So we have an average below-average defense against the pass.)
  • Greg Jones leads the conference in tackles/game at 12.1.  Surprisingly, he ranks "just" 4th in solo tackles.
  • We're dead last in red zone defense: both scoring percentage (18/19=94.7%) and TD percentage (13/19=68.4%).  Let's hope those are regression-to-the-mean kind of numbers.
  • Ninth in the league in penalty yards/game (58.7), ahead of only Indiana and Illinois.  Not the kind of company to keep if you want to compete for a conference title.

In the looking-ahead-to-next-week category:

  • Reason for optimism vs. Iowa: MSU now ranks 1st in the conference in both sacks allowed (6) and sacks by the defense (21, tied with PSU).  Iowa, meanwhile, ranks 8th in both categories (15 and 13, respectively).
  • Reason for pessimism vs. Iowa: Despite the two forced fumbles on Saturday, MSU still ranks dead last in the conference in turnovers created (8).  Iowa, on the other very menacing hand, ranks 1st with 22 (15 interceptions, 7 forced fumbles).

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Tight ends must be used

If Michigan State is to beat Iowa, they MUST get their tight ends involved. Cousins will be great on Saturday, no doubt. And Swenson will play a role, again. But it’s past time for the tight ends to be key.

by Faygo Kid on Oct 19, 2009 12:29 PM CDT reply actions  

And, while we're on the subject, stopping their tight end wouldn't hurt.

Kyle Rudolph did a lot of damage against us for ND, and Garrett Graham killed us for UW. Tony Moeaki’s probably better than either of those guys.

"Do not cheat your team or your teammates. Know your plays. Block. Protect. Add to what we are trying to do."
The Only Colors

by LVS on Oct 19, 2009 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah, but

ND and Wisky put the TE out as a WR as they went to a 4 or 5 WR set.

I doubt Iowa will do that, so Moeaki will be at the end of the line.

To me, this should be the real show for MSU’s defense this year.

by DrDetroit on Oct 19, 2009 8:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't mind bend but don't break

I think © is a possiblilty, but wouldn’t chalk it up solely to good fortune. In the NFL bend but don’t break is a terrible strategy, because any NFL caliber QB will tear you apart. But in college, the offensive execution is not nearly as good – if you give most college offenses enough rope they will hang themselves much of the time. Make them dink and dunk it down the field and eventually they’ll have a negative play or two to kill a drive.

by TheCrestedHelm on Oct 19, 2009 3:31 PM CDT reply actions  

Last year...

….was a statistically strange game.

“How do you beat a team that gains 3 more first downs than you do (22-19) by 10 points? One way is to give up the majority of those first downs on your opponent’s side of the field. Of Northwestern’s 13 offensive possessions, 10 resulted in drives of at least 20 yards. But 8 of those drives ended with 41 yards or less of yardage, meaning the Wildcats got into the redzone just twice (scoring touchdowns both times). The bend-but-don’t-break thing definitely worked Saturday.”

At NU last year, we got outgained and won by 17. That was mostly a function of turnovers and generally insane field position for MSU.

by witless chum on Oct 19, 2009 4:27 PM CDT reply actions  

You would think that for a offense that lines up in “power” formations as much as we do and has a skilled stable of TEs available, we would run a wildly effective play action pass game. Yet it seems that we never fully take advantage of it, especially the “TE wide open for 10 yards” aspect. Often it seems that when we do choose to pass, it will be out of the shotgun or some other “pass oriented” formation.

"It's a trap!"

by AdmiralAkbar on Oct 19, 2009 4:44 PM CDT reply actions  

Same thing I've complained about for years

Especially since we have a QB and receivers who are capable of executing said play-action (on the occasions we tried it in ’07, Hoyer usually missed a wide-open receiver, and in ’08 Hoyer would hit the guy in the numbers only to watch him drop it). The mere threat of play action can keep the runs up the middle from being so blatantly telegraphed.

by SpartanDan on Oct 19, 2009 7:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

Iowa fan here

Iowa has not faced a passing offense with stats as glittery as MSU. However, Iowa’s achilles heel has been the run, not defending the pass where they are nationally a Top 5 team in passing efficiency defense. One thing to look for, Iowa does not sack QBs as part of their defensive scheme. They take gap responsbility very seriously and their DE’s are very tall with super long arms. They put thier hands up and block passes at the LOS all the while clsoing the pocket in on the QB. No blind side blitzes, very few sacks. Under this sort of pressure when a guy is not immediately open the QBs usually either throw it away or make ill advised throws (we lead the nation in pass interceptions). College QBs rarely show the discipline needed to play our bend don’t break so the thorw away is rarer than you would see in the pros. College QBs try to make plays, freshmen college QBs even more so, and since we never rush more than 4 guys, we have a bevy of defenders in lanes looking for interceptions or to take the head off a receiver.

Thus far Iowa has played teams that employ some version of the spread in all but one game this year, Wisconsin. It took Iowa a half at Madison to realize they were playing good old fashioned balanced, traditional football team. After the initial shock wore off they totally locked up Wisky, went on a 17-0 run and closed them out.

For MSU to win, I believe they have to run for at least 125 yards. And not gain that yardage like Arizona did against us. AZ had one run for 54 or something yards, then 17 other carried for 23 yards. MSU needs to have a ton of 4 yard runs, control the clock. We have won the TOP in every game but one (UNI) and we almost lost that game. I noticed MSU has won every game in which they’ve won TOP and lost every game they’ve lost TOP.

That is the game in a nutshell to me, time of possession. Turnovers as always are likely be huge too but we have overcome three Pick 6s this year by controlling clock, keeping our D fresh and winning turnover battle. We do not fumble, ever. Yes, we throw INTs but if Stanzi avoids those we can be darn tough to beat.

Should be a great game.

"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz

by StoopsMyAss on Oct 19, 2009 9:25 PM CDT reply actions  

Somehow I missed this comment.

I agree with nearly everything you’ve written; thanks for stopping by. Now we need the 10 REASONS WHY IOWA WILL LOSE, asap plz.

"Do not cheat your team or your teammates. Know your plays. Block. Protect. Add to what we are trying to do."
The Only Colors

by LVS on Oct 21, 2009 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

At least

our bend but don’t break D has improved – at the start of the season it was bend until it breaks – or break before it has a chance to bend. I prefer making teams work it down the field to giving up those big plays. It would be great if we could force them to go three and out but we don’t quite have the talent across the board to do that on a regular basis.

On offense SpartanDan is right – we should be using the play action more. Our offense looks really good when we do, and we have the tight ends to run an effective passing games with them in there. We don’t need 3 WRs to get someone open. That said, with the exception of the occassional dropsies, our wideouts have been pretty impressive. I just think play-action slows the rush down a bit and gives Cousins more time to find the open guy. Plus, it sets up running plays as well, especially the draw.

by TheCrestedHelm on Oct 21, 2009 9:45 AM CDT reply actions  

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