This has been talked to death in a lot of circles. The assertion that it’s UK and WVU is widespread and they’ve been discussed as front runners forever. Around the time Payne hit Morgantown, a WV newspaper said it was down to two (with NO sourcing for this) and pushed the story further. Then Payne’s coach debunked it. Still, you hear “pundits agree,” “common knowledge is,” “word is,” and it’s almost always about UK and WVU having it down to two.

My response is this – the Payne camp is incredibly tight-lipped. I think all this UK/WVU talk is just numerous bloggers repeating each other’s speculation until no one remembers that it’s based on ZERO sourced (on or even off the record) comments from the Payne camp. It becomes accepted as common sense by repetition not accuracy. “Word is,” “word is” ad nauseum but no one has any backing for it. Not saying he picks MSU but I think the idea that’s it a done deal to UK or WVU is pretty baseless if you like actual sources and not speculation.

So, there’s stories out there that Payne was on campus for the Iowa game this weekend, even going to the Breslin with his coach in an MSU sweatshirt. Now, not saying that’s true, however, the anonymous posters willing to claim they saw or were told that Payne was at MSU (including people I’d trust on the Scout free board) are already far closer to tangible “evidence” than anyone has been able to show me for putting UK and WVU in the lead. So, take my analysis for what it’s worth.

Lastly (can you see I spend waaaaaaayyy too much time on this), Payne dropped Kansas days ago. This particular twitter isn’t adding any new or breaking information. In fact, it shows that he’s actually behind and just another person parroting the party line. I would say it means nothing.

Honestly, after following this to the point of a sickness, if I had $100 to bet, I’d put 60 on MSU, 20 on UK, 20 on WVU, and take my chances that Arizona is out. That’s how I’d divide my money to minimize risk. From all I’ve picked up from reading, I honestly think he’s coming.

I’m probably underestimating the value of Raymar Morgan (this year will decide that) but I believe next year’s team is looking almost better than this year’s team on paper (especially if Lucas stays). I think Payne elevates that team to “scary.”