Odds and Ends, Iowa Edition
And the Spartans won and rainbows and unicorns appeared we all lived happily ever after YAYYYY
So, I'm not particularly wild about reliving Saturday night, but it's worth doing so to chime in on a few major points of contention on the internets:
First, obviously, the personal foul penalty on Jeremy Ware. I'm going to bump a comment by KJ, because it succinctly reflects my general thoughts about the entire situation. (Zapruder-quality video of the incident is available at that same link, courtesy of Seer.)
I don't know
On the one angle, it sure looks like the Iowa receiver’s head snaps back on contact.
I’m afraid that, if the receiver in fact suffered a concussion, that’s pretty damning evidence in and of itself.
The late nature of the call is pretty aggravating, but it’ doesn’t really change the final verdict.
Now, my longer version: I've watched the replay several times now, and I think it was the correct call. You can pretty clearly see the Iowa player's head snap back from the helmet-to-helmet contact, and that's a play which referees have been calling penalties on this year. Of course, that doesn't address the entire issue: it was obnoxious that the penalty wasn't called until the referee realized the severity of the injury. Based on that alone, I think the criticism that the call was based on the result of the play, and not what was seen during the play itself, is valid. OTOH, I've personally advocated for instant replay in sports--particularly in baseball, where the general concerns about replay seem most salient--because completely aside from the process reached to get there, ultimately, I want the officials to get the call right. Here, I think they got it right, so the while the way they got there was lame, I'd be a hypocrite (and ultimately missing the point) to complain about process.
Second, however, I'm torn as to whether this should be a penalty at all. Ware seemed to lead with his hands first, directed at the shoulders, and, for me, it's difficult to divine any malicious intent on his part. Essentially, he was penalized for making a good football play--and that really sucks--but at the same time, if we're really concerned about stopping injuries, it's probably inevitable that some non-malicious plays end up as collateral damage for the greater good. IMO, This is one of those plays.
Finally, I think that focusing disproportionately on this penalty really isn't useful or good. Two full touchdown drives happened after the play occurred. After a loss as devastating as this one was, there's a natural inclination to grab onto the instances where you reasonably believe that your team has been screwed (and I'm not immune), but the decisive events in this game happened well after the controversy, and were, at best, tenuously related to it. Had we stopped Iowa on the last drive, none of us would have remembered the penalty a week later. By asking the conference to review the penalty, our coaching staff is in effect at least partially blaming the loss on the officials rather than our own team's defensive failings at the end of the game, and that's a bad message to send to the team. End of.
The end-of-game clock situation. From my vantage point at Spartan Stadium, everything looked kosher, and furthermore, when your own coach investigates the situation and then expressly disavows the argument . . .
[Dantonio] had a different viewpoint on some things after viewing the film, as is usually the case. He took out the stopwatch earlier in the day and confirmed that the game clock was correct on Iowa's final drive.
"I wish I could say it wasn't," he said.
. . . I think it's a dead issue.
The defense at the end of the game. Ugh, the defense. The post at The Rivalry this morning (spotlighting TOC's own DrDetroit) is painful but correct, I think. For 58:30, we played our best defensive game of the year by being aggressive both in coverage and with pressure, and then, at the critical time of the game, we completely abandoned what had been working. Dantonio's comment last night was to the effect of, "had we brought pressure and given up a big touchdown play, everyone would be criticizing us for that too"; it'd be naïve to think that there would be no criticism if that happened, but nonetheless, I don't think that's a valid argument. First, we had a lot of success in our base defensive package, and there's no special reason to believe that Iowa would have finally found a way to master it in the last minute of the game. Second, this exact situation has happened several times previously this season! CMU, Michigan, and, to an extent, ND, were all games in which the opposing offenses were able to move the ball at will-and in critical situations, no less-once we switched to a more passive style of defense.
It's like the bizarro version of what happened to Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl last season. OSU defended Texas effectively all game long by being largely restrained in attempting to rush Colt McCoy, but instead using their manpower to try to choke off Texas's receivers. But, in the deciding play of the game, OSU called a monster blitz, leaving Quan Cosby relatively open to score. Of course, our problem was going away from pressuring Rick Stanzi, not the opposite, but the point is the same: at the game's critical juncture, we went away from the type of play that brought us there, and we paid for it.
Calling our scheme a "prevent defense" somewhat obfuscates the issue, because those words have such a negative connotation amongst football fans, but it's inarguable that we played more passively by reducing the pass rush and by giving Iowa's receivers more cushion. Either way, it sucked, and a good argument can be made that this defense has proximately caused three losses this season. Three gut-wrenching, awful losses. Ugh.
Finally, my own complaint: we need a MAJOR improvement in offensive goal line situations. I mean, this is just ridiculous:
It'd be one thing if this was the first time. But this same situation happened against Northwestern, and Michigan too. We got away with it in those first two games, but here, our inability to cash in any of 4 attempts inside the two yard line really, really screwed us. It's generally the official TOC editorial policy not to second-guess playcalls that don't work out well, because it's just too easy. But, erm, going back to Baker on third down, when we were about 3 inches from the goal line and have a 6'3" quarterback who could have just sneaked it forward instead of making him do a long, slow handoff to the smaller of our two running backs was GAHHHHH unbelievable. Going forward, goal line offense should, uh, be a point of emphasis.
Bitch now in the comments about whatever your heart desires, or forever hold your peace.
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Comments
Defense
Agree whole heartedly regarding the change in D at the end of the game. IT is not only MSU, it seems everyone does it. 1:37 in college football is an eternity. We should have stayed with the D that dominated Iowa the entire game.
I am not sure regarding the QB sneak. We tried it in an earlier game and got stuffed. I would be more inclined to try a play action pass. Dare I say try a slant?
by tien_3 on Oct 26, 2009 3:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Everyone does it
You’re right. It’s exactly what Penn State did against Iowa in 2008. It’s exactly what Iowa did against Northern Iowa earlier this year.
In the NFL, you can get away with it. The clock doesn’t stop on those first downs. As long as you can funnel everything into the middle, you can’t make up the yardage fast enough. In college, if the QB can complete an 11 yard curl route, you can make up the yardage in a hurry. It drives me nuts.
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The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 26, 2009 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And if everyone jumped off the Sears Tower ...
I’m not going to call for the DC’s head, mostly because I’m not convinced we’d find one that has figured out how stupid the ultra-passive defense is. But my God is it stupid. And it’s not as if he has to study millions of games to know it. The evidence within our own program from just this year is overwhelming, to say nothing of the last six before that.
by SpartanDan on Oct 26, 2009 11:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed on the defense, penalties, clocks, etc…
Regarding the goal line situations, two things:
1. This is supposed to be a team built around its running game. So it should be able to make those plays with running backs. Baker/Caper is going to get there — they’re getting better every game. And Winston, a great weapon for such situations, is gone. Right now, this is a major deficiency in the offense that needs to be improved upon. The reason we can’t score in goal line situations is because… we can’t run the very plays that we are supposed to be best at.
These plays ARE the MSU offense. We need to get better at it and we are. Just not enough quite yet. As you say: Fixing this needs to be a point of emphasis. Unfortunately, that means keep practicing until it gets figured out.
2. Cousins is probably not completely healed up yet, and Nichol definitely isn’t. So, unless you’re jonesing to unwrap Maxwell a season early, then regardless of how tall Cousins is, I’m just fine not putting him in a situation where we have big people deliberately falling on top of him.
by Ken Braun on Oct 26, 2009 4:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
"Prevent" Defense
Aren’t the coaches that keep calling these plays (relatively) highly paid professionals? It seems almost like common knowledge at this point that the prevent defense almost never works in college unless there is probably under 10 seconds on the clock… so why do these defensive coordinators and head coaches, who have made their entire lives on the coaching of football, continue to call for this defense in situations like this?
I would be interested to see the stats on this. Say that a team scores on 1/3 of it’s drives. Then you go to the prevent defense and give up a score as well. The defense has a 66% “stop percentage” playing it’s basic defense, but a 0% “stop percentage” on prevent defense. If you stretched this across several years, I wonder how the percentages would work out. It seems like common sense that normal defense is more effective than the prevent, but it would be interesting to see just how much more effective it is.
"It's a trap!"
by AdmiralAkbar on Oct 26, 2009 4:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Prevent percentages
On a slight tangent to the point, there was a study done by an economist a few years ago about punting decisions in the NFL. I’m not sure where I read this, but the basic conclusion was that there it makes not sense to punt on short yardage from inside your opponent’s 50. That the odds of making the first down and then going and getting at least a field goal far outweigh the odds of disadvantage that spring from giving up the ball at midfield; and outweigh the almost certain advantages of pinning him further down in your own end.
In simple terms: If the best you can hope for is putting the bad guys 30 yards downfield, you’re better off playing for points.
The economic numbers were overwhelming in favor of this proposition. Of course, the actual game behavior of NFL coaches was skewed heavily against this because of the inherent precautionary principle of avoiding mistakes.
I suspect that the bias in favor of the prevent is very much the same thing. It’s safer to do the conventional thing and let your critics prove the negative rather than do the unconventional and suffer the extra criticism in those instances where it blows up and costs you a game (which it inevitably will.)
Somebody, there will be a coach that breaks the mold and tests the odds. Nobody wants to be the first and lose their job if the dice don’t roll on the table correctly the first few times.
by Ken Braun on Oct 26, 2009 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There are obviously some situational considerations to any choice; in your example, it might be in your advantage to punt if you have an especially weak offensive line. It might be in your advantage to go into a prevent defense if you have a top rated defensive secondary. Given this, it would be understandable to NEVER go into a prevent defense, as our secondary seems to be especially weak this year.
I think that at some point, as the court of public opinion rapidly (and probably rightfully) condemns the logic of the prevent defense, those who keep using it and getting burned by it will look significantly worse than those that stay with the defense that got them the lead in the first place. While the concept of going for it on 4th down at the 40 instead of punting (which I happen to agree with) is still not readily accepted by the public, I feel like the notion of how terrible the prevent defense is has almost reached this kind of critical mass. Hell, my buddy’s wife was watching the game and groaned when she saw us rushing 3 at the end. Even wives and the most casual fans can recognize and ridicule this mistake at this point. For some reason our coaching staff cannot, and that is the reason we are playing to go to Detroit this winter instead of Pasadena.
"It's a trap!"
by AdmiralAkbar on Oct 26, 2009 6:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Two thoughts on the final drive
1) Just forced myself to watch the final drive on DVR. The first 3 plays were actually pretty good by the MSU defense. First play was a nice throw by Stanzi into a pretty small window between MSU defenders. Then a very short gain against good coverage. Then a well-defended pass by Weaver. The problem was the big gain down to the MSU 30 on the RB crossing route on the next play. That was the last play MSU only rushed 3 on. To me, the problem wasn’t so much using the rush-3/drop-8 strategy. It was using it exclusively until you had no choice but to abandon it. Predictability by a defense is almost always going to play to the offense’s advantage. In fact, that’s what happened on the TD: Iowa finally figured out how to beat the constant blitzing on the final series.
2) Regarding the "Fire Narduzzi" sentiment: Narduzzi needs to be judged on the overall performance of the defense (on which the jury is still out IMO). Blame for the decision to go to the 3-man-rush plan on the final drive should rest solely with Mark Dantonio. He’s the head coach. In a situation of that magnitude, that call is (or at least should be) entirely his.
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Oct 26, 2009 4:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Rush 3/drop 8
I agree about predictability dooming a defense. The problem I had w/ the final series wasn’t rushing only 3, it was when it was implemented. When the opponent gets in the redzone is the best time to drop 7-8 into coverage. Force Stanzi to fit something into a tight window until the line gets to him. On the final play there are 2 lbs outside of the RT that don’t get w/in 10 yds of Stanzi as he throws. On that play you need to take the easy read away from Stanzi.
by tbliggins on Oct 26, 2009 9:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
Dropping 8 into coverage makes more sense when say a team is at the 7 yard line and you only have so much field to cover. When a team still has 70 yards to go there is just too much space available for WR’s and too much time for the QB, so eventually some one is going to get open.
The thing that gets me is that we were so predictable on defense. We only rushed 3 for the first 4 plays of the drive then we brought pressure the rest of the plays. Stanzi said him and the coaches knew we were going to do an all out blitz on that 4th down play.
Some one else had a post a couple articles back about how our overall ppg has dropped each year Narduzzi has been here, so I’m not going to jump on the fire Narduzzi bandwagon yet. I’m not sure how the dynamic is between him and Dantonio regarding what type of defense we should play, especially in late game situations, but I hope adjustments are made.
by Stones1981 on Oct 27, 2009 8:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meant to link to this
Regarding Iowa figuring out how to beat the blitz on the TD throw.
http://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/2009/10/26/1100216/the-takeaway-michigan-state
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Oct 27, 2009 8:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
“…the problem wasn’t so much using the rush-3/drop-8 strategy. It was using it exclusively until you had no choice but to abandon it.”
Yeah. I can agree with that. If they throw 4 WRs out, don’t always let them know how you’re going to respond. On the flipside, however, in hurry-up mode there are vanishingly small windows to figure out and change bodies without getting nailed for an illegal participation penalty. (See also: Michigan Wolverines, 2001, East Lansing.)
by Ken Braun on Oct 26, 2009 4:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
In seeing the Ware hit over and over, I was reminded of a way more vicious hit by, I believe, Kyle McCarthy of ND against Washington that also KO’d the receiver (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tTYsvo3GoU). This play was on 4th down in OT and ND won with the incompletion. No flag. And this, in my eyes, was much worse than Ware’s hit. You can argue whether Ware’s was penalty-worthy until the cows come home, but until these things are called consistently, we are going to continue to have these problems. If that hit is not a penalty, then Ware’s hit isn’t, either.
Unfortunately, this is college football in a nutshell.
by Matt Bishop on Oct 26, 2009 8:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The entire football world
said that ND hit was a massively cowardly oversight by the refs. Again, refs subconsciously favor home teams. Always have and always will. It is human nature. A study of this was on Smart Football a ways back. They looked at penatly calls of several teams and compared teams at home and on road and teased out offsides (crowd noise) and found teams had fewer holding calls at home then on the road. Fewer big yardage penalties at home.
The call is inconsistent but the rule is clear cut. The beef on inconsistency therefore is ot with the team that gets called on it, but with the team that does NOT get the call. That is like arguing with a cop for being ticketed for speeding and saying people always speed around here. You’re still guilty of speeding.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
by StoopsMyAss on Oct 28, 2009 6:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ware's hit
Helmet-to-helmet is one of the worst terms inserted into sports. The rules indicate that if contact is initiated above the shoulders, that that’s a penalty. If the helmets subsequently hit because of momentum, that’s not. You can see in the video that the hit was initiated at the shoulders and that momentum forces Ware’s and Sandeman’s heads together.
Not worth crying that the game was blown over. The final defensive play call and our goal line failure on offense are much more damning reasons for why we lost.
Light a man a fire, he'll stay warm for a day.
Light a man afire, he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
by Seer on Oct 26, 2009 9:04 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Goal Line Situations
Our coaches need to realize the strengths and weaknesses of our team and call plays that put our guys in the best situation to succeed. It’s painfully obvious that we do not have a good run blocking o-line, especially in goal line situations.
We need to add some variety to our “traditional” goal line package where we have a QB, RB, FB, and the rest O-linemen. Let’s mix it up…let’s have 3 WR’s lined up one side of the field, even if they are just a decoy, so that the middle isn’t so packed and we can try running it. Let’s put Cousins in a shotgun formation with multiple WR’s/TE’s and let him pick an open WR…the guy has a strong arm, makes quick decisions and is accurate. I’d trust him in those situations. Let’s fake a hand off up the middle and run a bootleg with a TE going into the flat to provide a run/pass option. I know Cousins isn’t a great runner, but we run up the middle EVERY FREAKING TIME so we should at least be able to surprise the defense.
I’m not saying we completely abandon running up the middle, but let’s get a little variety in there.
by Stones1981 on Oct 27, 2009 8:40 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't want to rag on the coaches too much...
I do question some of the play calling on both sides of the ball, but maybe once Dantonio has a full squad of just the players he’s recruited we’ll see much better results. Overall I’m very happy with what has happened since Dantonio took over. Have we forgotten how bad things were under Williams and Smith already? The program has been cleaned up (minus the Winston incident), we’ve made progress on the field with back to back bowl games and winning seasons, we now have top notch football facilities, and the biggest thing to me is the progress we’ve made in recruiting.
Last years class was Dantonio’s first full season of recruiting and he responded by bringing in a top 20 class. This year we are currently ranked 28th by rivals, but that’s only because we have relatively low number of commitments to date. Our average ranking per recruit (3.21 stars) is good for 20th in the country and is the exact same average as Michigan. The 4 years before he took over I believe our average class ranked some where in the 40’s.
So basically Dantonio has taken the same level of talent we had under JLS and brought better results. With us annually bringing in top 25 classes we should see continued improvement on the field. When this group of freshman are seniors we should truly be able to judge the staff and program.
by Stones1981 on Oct 27, 2009 9:16 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
My question...
…with the goal line plays was why not use the bigger Caper, or even Ashton Leggett off the bench than Baker? Riding the hot back, I guess, but Baker’s forte appears to be bouncing off the pile and taking it outside, which isn’t really in play from the one yard line.
by witless chum on Oct 27, 2009 10:41 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Forgot to mention that point
But I’ve been mentioning the same thing in real-life conversation. Totally agree.
"Do not cheat your team or your teammates. Know your plays. Block. Protect. Add to what we are trying to do."
The Only Colors
by LVS on Oct 27, 2009 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Treadwell & Nardoozie
Treadwell showed imagination on the final drive and Nardoozie showed he doesn’t belong.
by MSU1978 on Oct 27, 2009 11:33 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think it was flag worthy
I will agree that their helmets made contact with one another, but Ware lead with his arms and chest – not his helmet, and contact was initiated underneath the receiver’s shoulder (hence the reason the hit forced his arm up in the air). The helmet-to-helmet contact was incidental. If this was a penalty, you could call a penalty on more than 50% of all tackles in a game – incidental helmet to helmet contact occurs on just about every run up the middle. It contributed to the loss but was not the only reason we lost.
I tend to blame that on not being able to score a touchdown on first and goal from the one, and also on not being able to come up with a stop when we needed it. It was obvious that Iowas D line is far superior to our O line. That’s not a criticism of our O line -Iowa’s D line is very good, as is their entire defense – but I would have preferred us to try to run once but if that got stuffed go to the air. Yes, you can lose yardage that way, but that gives you more space for the passing game and getting knocked out of field goal range wasn’t really a possibility. Our strength on offense this year is the passing game. We should have stuck with that to score.
As far as the prevent – we needed to get some pressure on Stanzi. If that means rushing four, so be it – that still leaves 7 guys in coverage which should be adequate in most circumstances. At least we could have done it sporadically to keep Stanzi guessing on coverage and blocking assignments. Going exclusively with 3 rushers leads to death by 1000 cuts.
by TheCrestedHelm on Oct 28, 2009 8:42 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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