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Around SBN: College Football Preseason Top 25 Rankings

Greatly Abbreviated Preview: Michigan State vs. Minnesota

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This guy deserves more attention.

Your MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. the MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
TCF BANK STADIUM, MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA
8 P.M. (ET), BIG TEN NETWORK
WEATHER: MOSTLY CLEAR, 40 DEGREES.

[Note: this preview is going to be much shorter than usual, as yrs truly his his head on a pipe in the basement this morning, and has had a vicious headache ever since.  Hopefully I won't have a seizure while typing this.  Also, if my prediction is horribly wrong: built-in plausible deniability!  --LVS.]

Here's what you need to know: Minnesota was not a good football team before the loss of Eric Decker, and much worse without him.  Support:

MINNESOTA TEAM STATISTICS

Statistic Relevant Number Conf. Rank Nat'l Rank
Scoring Offense 21.13 ppg 10 101
Passing Offense 186.88 ypg 8 89
Passing Efficiency 113.55 10 97
Rushing Offense 105.88 ypg 11 105
Total Offense 292.75 ypg 11 112
Turnover Margin -4 7-t 90-t
Scoring Defense 25.13 ppg 8 70
Pass Defense 229.63 ypg 8 77
Pass Efficiency Defense 130.44 7 75
Rush Defense 177.88 ypg 10 96
Sacks 1.63 sacks/game 9 n/a
Total Defense 407.50 ypg 10 95

 

I mean, there's little that can be said which isn't already reflected in that chart.  In the major statistical categories, Minnesota's best conference rank is 7th, and best national rank is 70th.

The passing game has been the best weapon for Minnesota so far this year (although, in comparison to the rushing game, that's not saying all that much).  But, for some perspective, of Minnesota's 1495 passing yards this season, Eric Decker has 758 -- more than half the team's total -- and 5 of the 8 touchdown passes Minnesota quarterbacks have thrown this season.  Without him, Minnesota is left with a shell of it's former passing game, and has virtually no running game to speak of.  MSU's rushing defense has been mostly excellent this year; without having to worry about Minnesota doing much in that regard, we should be free to focus on stopping the pass.  (More 3-3-5, plz!)

On defense for Minnesota, things aren't much better.  We've complained all season long about MSU's performance on defense, but we're giving up nearly nearly 90 fewer yards per game than the Gophers.  Minnesota has had a lot of difficulty getting to the quarterback, and the only occasions where Kirk Cousins has had difficulty this season have been when he's under pressure.  Unless a pass rush magically appears, Cousins should be able to pick this defense apart.

Many Gopher fans would like to see MarQueis Gray take more snaps tomorrow.  For every one pass attempt this season, Gray has rushed the ball three times.  Some of that is obviously a function of him playing situationally, but I'd imagine we'll approach playing him in the same way we did for Denard Robinson -- and we made Robinson look absolutely silly.  Gray concerns me more than Adam Weber does, simply because he's quite talented and is something of an unknown quantity -- i.e., he's capable of playing horribly, but he's also capable of doing some good things, whereas I see very little possibility of Weber having tons of success against us.  Either way, we should be prepared.

In summation: we're more talented than Minnesota at nearly every position, and have performed better than them in nearly every meaningful statistical category.  This game is in Minneapolis, true, but the Gophers are only 2-2 in the new place; it's not like the new stadium has been particularly foreboding for opponents this season.  If MSU avoids shooting itself in the foot too many times, this game shouldn't be close.  27-10, MSU.*

Your own predictions in the comments, please!

*Dear God, I hope my optimism doesn't end up looking ridiculous.

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One word of caution

Minnesota’s numbers are a bit skewed by playing back-to-back road games vs. OSU and PSU. Also, they haven’t played a true patsie (unless you count Syracuse), like most Big Ten teams have.

Somehow, Sagarin says this game is pick’em—or MSU by 4.5 based on the PREDICTOR ratings (which mirrors the Vegas lines).

Regardless, this is a game we really have to win for the season to be deemed a success. Lose this one and 6-6 basically becomes the best case scenario.

Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!

by KJ@theonlycolors on Oct 30, 2009 6:22 PM CDT reply actions  

MSU should win going away...

but they won’t because of the “choke-out” mode of finishing games. As I said elsewhere…MSU 23-17.

by CPT Hoolie on Oct 30, 2009 11:03 PM CDT reply actions  

Teams need to be able to throw the ball to take advantage of that, though. If Decker weren’t hurt, I’d be utterly terrified of them. But he is. It shouldn’t be close enough for choke mode to matter.

by SpartanDan on Oct 30, 2009 11:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

Exactly my sentiment.

"Do not cheat your team or your teammates. Know your plays. Block. Protect. Add to what we are trying to do."
The Only Colors

by LVS on Oct 31, 2009 12:14 AM CDT up reply actions  

No, no, not "choke" -- "choke-out".

In combatives, there are a couple of ways to beat your opponent through submission: getting your opponent to “tap out” (putting him in such pain through submission holds or by continually and effectively striking that he submits, signaling his submission by tapping ) or by “choke-out” (technical submission; rendering him unconscious or near unconscious through a choke hold such as rean raked choke, cross-collar choke, guillotine choke, etc.) You can also

In the second half of games, MSU uses the “choke-out” strategy: clock-chewing, possesion football, run or inside-field pass drives. MSU tries to choke the opponent out. It is a slower, more deliberate, strategy than continuing to strike. This results in final scores being closer than the game.

Other teams — SEC teams come to mind, though I’ve seen Big 12 teams do it — continue to try to pummel the opponent by continuing to score. This results in larger margins of victory.

by CPT Hoolie on Oct 31, 2009 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions  

Lol, typing fail.

“rean raked choke” = rear naked choke.

There’s your unintentionally funny typo for the day.

by CPT Hoolie on Oct 31, 2009 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions  

State Wins

This is a game where MSU controls the other team and gradually keeps building up a lead.

The running game should be effective and MSU should control this game from start to finish.

by DrDetroit on Oct 31, 2009 8:08 AM CDT reply actions  

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