Statistics That Will Make Your Head Hurt
Lest anyone think I was exaggerating in my Sunday morning recap rant, here are two sets of statistics demonstrating MSU's inability to convert short-yardage rushing attempts this season:
- 3rd and Short
For the season, MSU has attempted rushes on 20 third-down plays with 3 or fewer yards to go. They have gained 18 yards on those attempts (0.9 yards/attempt) and converted only 8 of the attempts into first downs. They were 8-19 in such situations going into Saturday's game. (Source) - Goal Line Plays
MSU has now gone 10 straight goal-to-go rushing attempts from inside the 5-yard line--spanning 3 games--without a touchdown. On those 10 rushing attempts, they have gained a total of 2 net yards. Six of the attempts came in the two games that preceded the Minnesota game.
So it's not as if the coaching staff didn't have sufficient evidence going into Saturday's game that running the ball up the middle in short-yardage situations wasn't likely to be a successful endeavor.
Again, could putting Kirk Cousins in a spread formation on the goal line be any less effective than rushing the ball out of power formations has been? (Or, to be less innovative, how about just running a play-action pass on first down, rather than third down, when the defense knows it's coming?)
Based on the goal line data from the last three games, no, it could not have been--as a matter of simple mathematics.
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Brutal.
Hope someone on the staff reads this. Gantt was very effective last year in goal line situations. We’ve got the TEs… bring those plays back, please.
by Stuka on Nov 2, 2009 9:00 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
"We’ve got the TEs… bring those plays back, please."
QFT. We have 2 excellent tight ends and 2 more who are, at the very least, capable ones. Can we please involve them in goal line situations? That’s where having guys like that should be a big advantage.
It’s just embarrassing.
"Do not cheat your team or your teammates. Know your plays. Block. Protect. Add to what we are trying to do."
The Only Colors
by LVS on Nov 2, 2009 9:31 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hm...
That certainly does make my head hurt. Too bad Treadwell is so damn stubborn and doesn’t let things like simple/basic math influence his ‘tried-and-true for the last 20 years’ defensive philosophy.
by MooTheKow on Nov 2, 2009 9:07 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Why use facts
to make logical arguments about how stubborn our play calling can be at times? We’re a power running team, we’re going to run up the middle on 3rd and short situations and goal line no matter what!!!
Isn’t the saying “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result”?
Things I’d like to us try for 3rd and short and goal line situations:
- Play action to FB and TE on 1st down if we use our goal line formation.
- More spread formations, some with Cousins in shot gun
- Quick slants or corner end zone routes
- We can still run the ball and their won’t be 11 defenders bunched up in the middle
- 3 WR’s to one side of the field…fake the quick bubble screen pass, then pitch it to our back on the other side of the field. We ran this multiple times earlier in the year with success, but I can’t remember it happening in the last couple games.
- Take advantage of Nichol’s running ability and use the zone read play like Florida does with Tebow.
- Run some play action roll out plays with a run/pass option for Nichol
by Stones1981 on Nov 2, 2009 10:06 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
If the coaches want Nichol to get some time on the field, goal line situations would be the way to do it.
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Nov 2, 2009 10:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
co-sign
"Do not cheat your team or your teammates. Know your plays. Block. Protect. Add to what we are trying to do."
The Only Colors
by LVS on Nov 2, 2009 10:29 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yikes
I knew it was bad, but I didn’t know it was that bad. Going into the season the O line was considered a question mark. They’ve actually held up pretty well in pass protection but are obviously not capable of moving the pile in short yardage running situations.
I still can’t believe we haven’t tried a play action pass on first down on one of these goal line situations. EVERYONE knows we’re going to run. Fake the run and throw it once – next time they won’t know what is coming, which may actually loosen things up for the run game in those situations.
The coaches have to accept reality – we do not have an offensive line that is skilled at short yardage run blocking. They may wish we had such an offensive line so fervently that they call plays based on that wish, in the hopes that at some point our O line will morph into the O line of their dreams, but it is not working. Maybe next year when we have more experience and another year of strength training for the young guys on the O line, but not now.
Play to the team’s strengths, which are a good QB, decent pass protection, and a slew of talented receiving options both at wideout and TE.
by TheCrestedHelm on Nov 2, 2009 11:03 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
If Treadwell is so good at calling plays outside the red zone...
…why is he suddenly so bad at playcalling with the ball at the one yard line?
I think we are overlooking the short field / stack the box effect. I am considering doing abbreviated MSUFRs for the last several games focusing on those goal line offense situations.
I do seem to recall a play action pass attempt to Hawken on 1st down. I can’t remember which game it was, it all seems to be blurring together right now.
by CPT Hoolie on Nov 2, 2009 11:43 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
It was against Iowa
Of course, that’s a sample size of one failed first-down play-action attempt—vs. the sample size of 10 failed rushing attempts over the the last 3 games.
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Nov 2, 2009 12:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, no doubt that the default is "run" on first down...
…but at least they have tried it. Unfortunately Dantonio and Treadwell seem to imprint on FAIL when they do something outside of the box and it doesn’t work once. [Another good example was the fake punt in the Capital One Bowl.]
by CPT Hoolie on Nov 2, 2009 1:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Fade routes
Gantt and Sims are 6’5", Linthicum is 6’4" and White, Cunningham and Dell are all 6’2". Cousins has good touch. How about a fade route now and again?
by Con-T on Nov 2, 2009 12:39 PM CST via mobile reply actions 0 recs
Not being able to man up and get that 1 tough yard bothers me ...
… (I was an All League OT way back in my prep days, so maybe it more than bothers me) but State still put up a respectable 34 points.
What irks me even more, what really chaps my rearend, is the pass defense. I don’t know if there’s anything to be said about this secondary that hasn’t already been said. That unit is just plain godawful, downright terrible. Perhaps even more embarassing because that’s Dantonio’s area of expertise.
(Being able to cover on kick-offs would be nice, too. But that’s a seperate issue – and it’s not like it would matter, as it only would prolong the pain of watching the Spartans horrendous secondary give up yardage play after maddening play.)
Man looks in the abyss, there's nothing staring back at him. At that moment, man finds his character. And that is what keeps him out of the abyss. -- Lou Mannheim, Wall Street
by ChiSpartan on Nov 2, 2009 12:48 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Yes ChiSpartan
We have reason to complain abou the short yardage play calling, but giving up as many points as we did to that Minnesota offense is far worse than any transgressions the offense committed.
by TheCrestedHelm on Nov 2, 2009 1:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
At this point the "schematic" problems seem like our biggest hurdle
Offense:
Simply put, our grim determination to make the run off tackle work is costing us games. We are not a power running team, so lining up with 2 TE sets in the “I” against 9 in the box is simply not going to work. This is even less effective in running situations, like third and sort or goal line situations (see OP).
Why are we so determined to give Nichol a series, when we should be using his situationally? Why is it when he does come in, we don’t take advantage of his “scrambler” label and get him running around back there? Why put him in to do a 5 step drop when we have a guy who does it better on the sidelines?
Sometimes I feel like we have a playbook that has about 10 plays in it. Sure, we pull out a hook and ladder once, but the other 99% of the time we are running 10 yard outs, or off tackle runs. We run a fake dive end around and go for a TD. Then immediately stop any thought of running another misdirection play. I constantly have a vision of a smug Treadwell thinking “they’ll never expect us to run off tackle again! Perfect!”, and he rarely fails to live up to these visions. At this point in the season, we seem to have more success with 3rd and 15+ than we do with 3rd and 4 or less, which is deeply troubling; we do better when we simply have to run some sort of creative play.
Defense:
While I think that we have some talent problems on defense, I think that often our players are simply not put in a position to win. How many times have we seen a guy WIDE open deep this year? Not “I just faked the CB out of his jock in man coverage” open, but “the offensive coordinator figured out how to beat this coverage scheme earlier this week” open. Its one thing when our LBs and DBs get beat by a step or two or a great throw, its quite another when there is simply nobody there.
Halftime adjustments anyone? Have we made a defensive adjustment all year? We simply keep “doing what we were doing” until the end of the game, giving opposing offenses a blank canvas to come roaring back in the second half of games. Remember the CMU “lets just throw this 5 yard pass until they stop us once” play? We didn’t figure out how to stop it during halftime, did we?
Sending more guys is not the end-all of putting pressure on the other QB. Do we ever do anything more interesting with our blitz/rush package than simply “blitz the LBs” or “blitz the CB”? Often teams can simply make an adjustment and burn you on this. See: the last play of the Iowa game
"It's a trap!"
by AdmiralAkbar on Nov 2, 2009 4:48 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

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