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Rockets are Good for What Ails Delvon Roe: Michigan State 75 Toledo 62

[Note: I watched this game in a somewhat disjointed fashion: final 16 minutes live, first 24 minutes on DVR.  So my perception of the game's time continuum may be slightly off.  Bear with me.]

Given (1) how bad Toledo was last year and (2) how young they are this year, we would have liked to see MSU's final margin of victory closer to 30 than to 10.  But coming off the emotionally-draining win against Gonzaga, I think we can cut the team a break.  They came out playing efficiently in the first half, building a 17-point lead before Toledo went on a 10-0 run late in the half.  And they came out with purpose after halftime, holding Toledo scoreless for the first 5 minutes of the second half.  There was never any real danger of an upset.

Player bullets (official box score is here):

  • Great to see Delvon Roe look back to being himself (or better): 10 points, 11 rebounds.  Seems like all 4 of his made field goals came off nifty moves near the basket.
  • I need an autotext feature for "Draymond Green stuffs the stat sheet": 15 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 turnover, 2 steals, 1 block.
  • Efficient game for a very confident-looking Chris Allen: 14 points on 11 FG attempts, 3 assists, zero turnovers.

Star-divide

  • Kalin Lucas and Korie Lucious combined: 10 assists, zero turnovers.
  • Austin Thornton and Isaiah Dahlman combined for 14 minutes as Tom Izzo looked to keep the other perimeter guy's minutes down as the team entered the first of two straight 2-games-in-3-days weekends.  Definite edge to Thornton, who made a couple nice defensive plays.  Air ball for Dahlman on his only 3-point attempt.
  • 4 points and 3 rebounds for Tom Herzog in just 6 minutes.  Good to see him use his PT productively.
  • Derrick Nix is not enjoying his time at the charity stripe.  0-6 at the line tonight.  1-15 on the season now.  This is making Roe's problems last season seem pretty mild, and I'm guessing it's not an issue that's going to go away quickly.  (I'm not all that concerned with the overall FT shooting.  Take Nix out of the equation and the team was 11-20, which is within the bounds of the normal random variation you're going to see from the line.)
  • Only 1 minute for Garrick Sherman.  Presumably, the thigh bruise is an issue.
  • Raymar Morgan did not play.  Which is OK--for now.
  • Bit of an off game for Durrell Summers, who posted two-thirds of MSU's turnovers (not quite as bad as it sounds; read on).
  • This was a 67-possession game, so MSU's performance was pretty balanced between offense and defense.  The defense may have been a little better than the score would indicate, as freshman Stephen Albrecht made some great shots for Toledo.  Take his 20 points on 13 FG attempts out of the equation and the Rockets posted an eFG% of just 40.8%.

    Four factors graph:

     

    MSU turned the ball over on just 6 of 67 possessions  The resulting turnover percentage of 9.0% is the lowest figure posted by a Spartan team since the December 2007 win over Texas.  So that's a nice way to bounce back from the give-away fest in the first half vs. Gonzaga.

    Beyond that, this game was fairly unremarkable from a statstical standpoint.  Just another ticket punched on the standard slate of mid-to-low-major nonconference opponents.

    Next Up: The Valparaiso Crusaders step right up to take their shot at the Spartans in the second "round" of the Legends Classic.  Sunday at noon.  The Breslin Center.  Big Ten Network.

    P.S.  Maybe I got a little too worked up about the quality of the revamped UNC lineup last night.  As successful as they were at forcing Evan Turner to turn the ball over last night, they seem to have a bit of a turnover problem themselves.  Two straight games with a TO% of 25%+, the latest resulting in a resounding loss.  Oh, and Mr. Turner bounced back pretty nicely: 26 points, 16 rebounds, 6 assists, and a relatively modest 4 turnovers in Ohio State's win over California tonight.

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    That FT% for Mr. Nix has got to get better

    His form doesn’t look THAT bad. And, for God’s sake, a 12-year old throwing basketballs at the net from the free throw line is likely to make 7%.

    Something tells me this has all the makings of a really horrifying small sample size.

    by cwel87 on Nov 21, 2009 7:37 AM CST reply actions  

    Ft. Nix's FTs

    I agree that his form doesn’t look bad, like the classic big guy who can’t shoot from the line. But as soon as that decent shot leaves his hand, it’s painfully anyone’s guess where it’ll end up. He’s big and strong and uses both of those qualities effectively to draw fouls. I have to think the size/talent disparity was even greater in high school. How have free throws not been a priorty for him? Anyone have any stats from his Pershing days?

    ** reserved for something original **

    by Spartalytical on Nov 21, 2009 7:50 AM CST up reply actions  

    Pomeroy

    How many games until Pomeroy ratings are useable? I doubt St. Peters is the 4th best team at 1-1.

    by TMadison25 on Nov 21, 2009 7:46 AM CST reply actions  

    Arkansas State is SCARY

    Seems like it takes the bulk of the nonconference season for the KenPom rankings to sort themselves out—sort of the like the Sagarin ratings getting “connected.”

    Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!

    by KJ@theonlycolors on Nov 21, 2009 8:02 AM CST up reply actions  

    One more positive

    Fast break points – MSU 24 Toledo 2

    by Con-T on Nov 21, 2009 7:50 AM CST reply actions  

    Turnovers make the world go round!

    Or something.

    ** reserved for something original **

    by Spartalytical on Nov 21, 2009 7:55 AM CST up reply actions  

    Toledo

    I didn’t see much of last night’s game at all, as I was busy hoisting my three year-old up over the masses to see the Silver Bells parade downtown. Caught some on the radio and the last seven or so minutes on TV at home. I was very pleased and not a bit surprised to see Roe’s stat line, which should hopefully stem the tide of criticism that’s flooded his was over the last week. Herzog seemed to show some aggressiveness a couple of times which was great to see, and Allen looking like a confident Allen was even better, and the turnovers were best of all.

    ** reserved for something original **

    by Spartalytical on Nov 21, 2009 7:54 AM CST reply actions  

    Classic Tom Izzo:

    “I’m going to keep working at it, but great teams don’t have those letdowns. We did not do the job. We meaning me, my staff and the players.”

    Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!

    by KJ@theonlycolors on Nov 21, 2009 8:07 AM CST reply actions  

    Also
    “Since you all wanna know what I think this program has to do to become an elite program, you saw it tonight,” Izzo said. “Duke beats this team (Toledo) bad – get ‘em down and beat ’em bad. Michigan State doesn’t.”

    And I have to say, he has a point.

    by intrpdtrvlr on Nov 21, 2009 9:16 AM CST up reply actions  

    Except that

    Duke’s method of pounding weak teams into submission early in the season hasn’t translated to success against stronger teams late in the season over the last 5-6 years.

    This is just Izzo being Izzo: The Unparalleled Motivator. Which is great.

    Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!

    by KJ@theonlycolors on Nov 21, 2009 10:31 AM CST up reply actions  

    Reflections

    Glad to see Roe get off the schnide and I believe we can pretty much pencil in what Green will give the team each night. Nix needs a fix – a quick fix please.
    I could see the team wasn’t fired up for this one. The area that concerned me the most though was the lapses in judgment at times regarding shot selection. It appeared that players were just throwing thing up, assuming they’d go in. There were a number of periods where we didn’t work for good shots. The flow was erratic. We can’t do that against quality opponents and expect to win.

    by donaldo on Nov 21, 2009 8:59 AM CST reply actions  

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