Maybe not, but certainly very close.
I’m a Spartan fan of the opinion that the first UNC game last year was a real detriment in the rematch. Players are human beings and once the going got rough in the national championship game that first match-up started playing a major role in the MSU players’ heads even if they wouldn’t like to admit it. They would have been better off to never have played the first game.

Anyway, yep, I think this is an opportunity to make a statement about how good this team can be. I don’t care how “inexperienced” UNC is. It’s their crown to take and I consider them the favorites regardless. MSU needs to take ‘em down. We’ll see.

Oh how I’m hoping for much better production out of the gate than in the previous two meetings. If they falter early tonight, I do hope that Izzo will call an early timeout instead of trying to let them work through it.
This is one of those look-yourself-in-the mirror games. As a team we need to find consistency from players beyond Lucas and Green. We need at least three of the other core players to be present tonight.
I would like to see Lucas look to assist a bit more. I think that can help get his teammates going. I have no doubt that we can be an exciting and dominant team this year. I’d like to see them play with the mindset that every possession is critical, and, on the defense end, my guy is not going to beat me. We wil know a lot more about this team after tonight.

I think they need to have a good night offensively as a group, as UNCs height advantage will make it tough for our bigs to score. The one exception will be Morgan – if he is matched up against Graves, he’ll have a couple of inches and we should post him up down low if we get that matchup.

I would not mind seeing the zone in this game either – 3 point shooting is a relative weakness for UNC (compared to how efficiently they score in the paint). Plus Syracuse’s zone bothered them. I’d rather we forced them to make their guards beat us with outside shooting than let them dump it inside and go head to head against their bigs. Given how easy it was for Gonzaga’s bigs to score down low denying post entry and forcing their guards to prove they can hit outside shots looks like our best strategy on D.

It will be interesting to see who they put Ginyard on. Lucas would be the obvious choice but Allen has quietly become (arguably) our best offensive player from a statistical standpoint. He’s got our highest eFG percentage, is shooting better than 40% from three point land, and has the second highest assist to turnover ratio on the team (ahead of Lucas but behind Lucious). If I were UNC I would be concerned about letting him get hot.

UNC by 2.5

We just aren’t sharp enough right now offensively to win a game like this on their floor. The only reason I think we have a chance is that UNC is arguably a bigger mess than we are right now.

Izzo’s system requires time to get rotations and combinations down. I don’t see us as being ready. That said, I don’t expect an out-and-out pantsing like last year, but I think UNC will get us down 8-10 fairly early and ride their customary ridiculous free throw advantage to the win. Roe, Green, and the Triumvirate simply must stay out of foul trouble for us to pull this off, and I don’t see it.

I realize we’ve been trounced by UNC a lot lately, and it is frustrating, but this is an entirely different UNC team. I’m not saying we’ll win, but there are reasons for cautious optimism. Our offense looks about 6 points better than theirs, and our D’s are basically equal according to Kenpom.com. It’s early to say anything definitively, but on paper at least we look like the better team. They are not the monster they were last year. Their size is a concern, but we beat one team with even more size this year (Gonzaga) that also had a more experienced backcourt than UNC currently does, so it is not a reason to give up all hope.

They do have the home-court advantage going for them, and that is my main concern as it will lead to foul discrepancies, and we are already prone to fouling. Plus it may exacerbate the jitter-induced turnover problems we are prone to. Assuming we go with Nix/Sherman, Roe, and Morgan/Green we pretty much match their size on the interior. They have a slight height advantage on the perimeter but it’s not extreme, and I think we are more skilled there overall than they are, which is something that could not be said last year. As long as we can keep our wits about us and avoid wounds of the self-inflicted variety (i.e. unforced turnovers) I think we have a shot.

It seems that Summers saves his best for the big stage, so I’m looking for a big game from him tonight. Light it up, Durrell!