Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs. IPFW Mastodons
by KJ@theonlycolors on Dec 17, 2009 7:47 PM CST
in Michigan State Spartans Basketball
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PrintTHE BRESLIN CENTER, EAST LANSING, MICHIGAN
NOON (ET), SATURDAY
TV: BIG TEN NETWORK
Mastodon bullets:
- 2008-09: Overall record of 13-17; 8-10 in Summit League play; KenPom ranking of #222.
- Lost to MSU 70-59 last season in a game played in Fort Wayne; IPFW led game with less than 11 minutes to go.
- Returned 4 of 5 starters from last seson.
- Record of 3-5 to date this season. Lost road games against Wisconsin by 29 and Gonzaga by 35.
- Leading scorer is 6'6" senior forward Deilvez Yearby: 16.0 points and 8.6 rebounds per game. The leading-scorer status is mostly a function of taking a lot of shots, though; Yearby is only shooting .462 on 2-pointers and .526 from the line.
- 6'0 junior guard Ben Botts is averaging 12.0 points per game on .500 three-point shooting (22-44). Botts is a career .445 shooter from beyond the arc.
- Dane Fife is a dad!
IPFW's tempo-free profile doesn't have all that much to recommend it. They rank 231st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 301st in adjusted defensive efficiency.
On offense, the Mastodons don't turn the ball over at an excessive rate (19.8%) and they shoot the 3-pointer pretty well (.360; down from .408, which was 3rd in the country, last season). But, constent with their lack of size (308th in the country in effective height), they don't score efficiently on 2-pointers, get to the free throw line very often, or crash the glass on offense.
Defensively, IPFW has actually rebounded the ball very well for an undersized team (different skills!); opponents have procured only 26.2% of available offensive rebounds. But opponents have also run their offenses without disruption (Def TO%=17.7%) and shot the ball well both insdie the arc (55.1%) and beyond it (37.7%.)
Barring a The-Citadel-like 3-point shooting barrage from the Mastodons, this is a team MSU should handle easily. KenPom predicts a 93-61 MSU win in 71 possessions.
One small wrinkle in the plan to dispatch IPFW with ease, getting tuned up of Texas game next Tuesday night in the process, is that Delvon Roe took a shot to the jaw (from Derrick Nix) in practice yesterday. He expects to play Saturday, but we may see more of the two freshmen up front than usual.
And, on the topic of big men off the bench, apparently Tom Izzo still hasn't give up on Tom Herzog:
"If a pro scout came in and watched him do an individual workout, they would say: ‘Wow!’ He dribbles the ball well, he shoots the ball well, he’s athletic as the day is long, he can do a lot of things. I don’t think he’s crumbling in games as much. He needs more time."
So we'll see how that plays out.
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I hope everyone...
…listened to the Izzo Radio Show this week.
(Podcast available)
Included at the end of the show was this gem from Gus Ganakas. (from memory)
“I was talking to Goran Suton the other day and he said when he first came from Slovenia, wasn’t that where he was from? He said they took him to an eye exam and the doctor put IPFW up on the wall and asked him to read it. And he says ‘Read it, I dated her!’”
Did Gus ever do vaudeville?
More important was the Christmas special with Izzo’s accordion playing and most of the team singing along. Herzog was accused of not singing and Nix was accused of hiding in the back. (Seems unlikely) I think Izzo only knows three songs, because they did “Jingle Bells” twice.
Roy Williams can’t play the accordion for crap. I’m very confident of that.
Beautiful
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Dec 18, 2009 8:17 AM CST up reply actions
intrpdtrvlr represents
I’ll be attending my first and almost certainly only game of the year on Saturday (no @OSU!). Looking forward to it.
In non-personal notes, I don’t understand the handling of Herzog. By Izzo’s own admission, it seems clear that the only way he’ll get better is through playing in games, which may require taking some lumps as he struggles. If Izzo isn’t willing, that’s fine but what’s the alternative? I’ve always thought Herzog would need 10-12 a game to see what he has/can develop.
I can see...
…the point of giving those basically developmental minutes to Sherman and Nix, rather than Herzog, if they already look better. We’re going to need some quality defensive minutes from someone in that group at some point, though, and it’s not obvious now who would provide it.
by witless chum on Dec 18, 2009 8:24 AM CST up reply actions
I agree to a point
I’m not sure either Nix or Sherman looks better than Herzog in practice, and I think that is what frustrates Izzo about Herzog. He has the height to be a true game changer and the skills, he just seems incapable of putting it together on game day. Maybe with more playing time he gets more comfortable out there. One thing is for sure though – if any of the three are going to be major contributors by the end of the year, we need to pick the most promising option and start giving him more minutes so he can develop. Otherwise we face a scenario where none of them have played more than spot minutes all year long.
by TheCrestedHelm on Dec 18, 2009 8:47 AM CST up reply actions
Right
I agree, basically. If Herzog is never going to get it, that’s fine. But the ONLY way he might ever is if he plays. A moment has to come where it’s either “play him and see” or “bench forever.” I don’t necessarily favor giving him more minutes, but he’s probably never going to come of the bench for 2-4 minutes and wow you.
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