A Quick Statistical Look at Texas Tech

by LVS on Dec 7, 2009 11:31 AM CST in Football Comment 6 comments

So, right to it. The somewhat gory details:

CATEGORY	TEXAS TECH	TT Nat'l Ranking	MICHIGAN STATE	MSU Nat'l Ranking
Total Offense	461.75 yds/game (6.14 yds/play)	7	407.08 yds/game (6.26 yds/play)	41
Scoring Offense	36.67 pts/game	9	29.58 pts/game	44
Passing Offense	380.67 yds/game (7.43 yds/att)	2	271.17 yds/game (8.28 yds/att)	26
Rushing Offense	81.08 yds/game (3.38 yds/rush)	115	135.92 yds/game (4.21 yds/rush)	79
Pass Efficiency Rating	142.67	25	146.09	17
Sacks Allowed	30 (2.5/game)	92	13 (1.08/game)	16
Total Defense	348.75 yds/game (4.72 yds/play)	47	364.33 yds/game (5.27 yds/game)	62
Scoring Defense	21.75 pts/game	36	25.08 pts/game	61
Passing Defense	223.75 yds/game (6.16 yds/play)	72	251.58 yds/game (7.07 yds/play)	103
Rushing Defense	125.0 yds/game (3.33 yds/rush)	37	112.75 yds/game (3.37 yds/rush)	24
Pass Efficiency Def. Rtg.	116.43	34	139.16	96
Turnover Margin	-6 (.5/game)	94	-6 (.5/game)	94
Net Punting	34.98 yds	73	36.42 yds	47
Kickoff Returns	24.48 yds/return (0 td)	18	26.66 yds/return (1 td)	6
Penalty Yds/Game	79.92	118	55.42	70

This is clearly not the Texas Tech offense of last season, when Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree and others combined for 413 yards per game and blew everyone not named Oklahoma off the field. But, erm, it's not far off. We've been decent against the run and terrible against the pass, and Texas Tech never runs and always passes, hooray!

Yes, Tech's passing numbers are inflated because of their enormous run/pass disparity, but their very respectable pass efficiency rating demonstrates that the inflation is only slight. And, on defense, commenter/interloper TechFirst seems spot-on: this year's TT iteration isn't the gridiron Loyola Marymount equivalent of the past -- they actually sorta play defense. 36th in scoring defense isn't necessarily anything to write home about but it's far, far better than the 72nd-ranked defense of 2008 (which nonetheless was good enough for an 11-2 record).

Happily, Tech is just as bad in turnover margin as we are -- although they live far less numbly than we do (22 gained, 28 lost, compared to 12 gained, 18 lost for us.) And, they're the 3rd most undisciplined team in the country . . . and we'll take as many 15-yard freebies as we can get.

More after the jump.

Texas Tech's schedule reveals a bit more ambiguity:

DATE	OPPONENT	RESULT	RECORD
September 5	North Dakota	W 38-13	1-0 (0-0)
September 12	Rice	W 55-10	2-0 (0-0)
September 19	at No. 2 Texas	L 34-24	2-1 (0-1)
September 26	at No. 17 Houston	L 29-28	2-2 (0-1)
October 3	New Mexico	W 48-28	3-2 (0-1)
October 10	Kansas State	W 66-14	4-2 (1-1)
October 17	at No. 15 Nebraska	W 31-10	5-2 (2-1)
October 24	Texas A&M	L 52-30	5-3 (2-2)
October 31	Kansas	W 42-21	6-3 (3-2)
November 14	at No. 19 Oklahoma State	L 24-17	6-4 (3-3)
November 21	Oklahoma	W 41-13	7-4 (4-3)
November 28	vs. Baylor*	W 20-13	8-4 (5-3)

So, after blowing the doors off Nebraska in Lincoln -- yes, the Nebraska which made regular Texas look utterly awful on Saturday night -- the Raiders returned home and gave up 52 points to a thoroughly mediocre Texas A&M team. But still, 3 of the 4 losses came to ranked teams, so it's not like they've made a habit of blowing games to bad teams. Which we, ah, kinda sorta are. I would like to find a torrent of the Baylor game, however: Baylor has the 95th-ranked defense in the country, and somehow held Tech to only 20 points and 5.5 yards per pass. (Actually, perhaps Pat Narduzzi should be the one looking for that film.)

For a bit more on Texas Tech, head over to Double-T Nation, SBN's Red Raider Blog.

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Good Preview

I look forward to seeing from your perspective as the bowl approaches. I think it will be a great game, and hopefully a great time for all our athletes who worked hard enough to earn a bowl.

Here’s to some harmless banter and a great game!

by jdeeTTU on Dec 8, 2009 8:24 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Good preview…
The biggest difference about this year for Tech is the instability at QB. Injuries and a suspect OL have made this season interesting (in a negative way). This team is a few key plays away from being 10-2.

About that Baylor game, our QB Potts never really got in sync except for the two scoring drives in the second half. The receivers also had some uncharacteristic drops. Against OU he was lights out and against Baylor struggled. But that’s how the whole season has been. You can’t really prepare for him too much; either he shows up or not.

The running game actually is not bad, they just don’t get the opportunities. The ypc for Batch and Stephens is actually quite impressive and these are two high quality RB’s. When Leach commits to the run, good things happen. The backs also catch passes during the games and are very productive and block well, which makes the rushing numbers look bad.

Honestly, if Tech comes out flat, ya’ll have a good chance at winning. I haven’t gotten a chance to watch any MSU football this year, but if you have a running QB, it will increase your chances of winning about 10×. If Tech comes out to their full potential, though, it could get ugly especially since it sounds like you’re short-handed.

We’re all looking forward to a great game and welcome you in Texas!

by pcrawttu on Dec 8, 2009 8:53 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Nice preview LVS

Echo the sentiments of my esteemed DTN colleagues’ jdeeTTU and pcrawttu and welcome you folks to Texas. The San Antonio party scene is great. It’s a friendly city. And the Alamo Bowl is a nice facility. Of course you must get the obligatory "Alamo" front of the mission-picture for the team. Enjoy.
As far as the match up. It’s very much a "who" shows up formula. The Raider team which slugged it out with Texas u is completely different than the team which got sucker punched by aTm ( sorry the Aggies). There is no doubt we all expect Coach Dantonio to try and release his inner Al Groh former U of Virginia coach or Bo Pelini – the highly irritated Nebraska H.C. as far as game planning goes. I am speaking specifically about the game tactic of keeping the Tech offense off the field with time consuming short run and play action pass attack. The 4 x MSU losses by 2 or 8 points on the Spartan record speaks to the gameness of the unit. We had the same type games against Houston –not a good outcome and then the Baylor event which was a happier ending delivered in very uncharacteristic fashion by the Raider defense. Mostly. Looking forward to an excellent game. I personally don’t think the drama of the fights inflicted on the team will amount to anything. In fact I expect your Spartans to be very ready to play.

"do routine things routinely"

by centexraider on Dec 8, 2009 10:08 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Trying to find a silver lining...

And I must admit I don’t see many. Perhaps Coach D can get the team to circle the wagons (a curious metaphor, given that the circling will be done without the players causing said circling) and play well. I’m sure that they will try to bleed the clock on runs and short passes, as mentioned before. MSU will probably use a lot of Ace formation, twin TEs, two WR (Martin and White), going single-back most of the time, and try to establish the ground ‘n pound even more so than usual. That tactic will probably have to result in a 2:1 advantage in time of possession to be a winning one. Simply put, Texas Tech is completely in their wheelhouse given their strength perfectly matches their opponent’s weakness. In the end, Tech will be able to score through the air, and score quickly enough, that MSU’s offense will not be able to keep pace, resulting in a second-half blowout. Damn.

by heresjohnny on Dec 8, 2009 11:21 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

hmmmmm

I think we (Tech) will run away with this game. Our defense has been sold this yr, prob one of the best Tech defenses in the last couple years. We lead the big 12 in sacks also (well we did last week if coulda changed by now). Our offense has been up and down this yr with o-line injuries and qb shuffles which ruined our offensive rhythm. I expect Leach and Potts to be on the top of their game. Not to take anything away from MSU (Im a MSU bball fan cuz one of my best friends goes there, go Summers!) but if you look at MSU’s wins, they havent really beaten anyone too great. Northwestern and Michigan are just average teams. But then again its a bowl game so who knows they may come out to play and give us a game.

by jgome21 on Dec 8, 2009 2:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs