Irrational Exuberance

by LVS on May 18, 2009 3:38 PM CDT in Michigan State Spartans Football

Keith Nichol, apparently

Angelique Chengelis, the excellent U-M reporter* for the Detroit News, has a very early season preview up, with game-by-game predictions for both MSU and our friends in Ann Arbor. Normally, this is unremarkable, except that she has MSU going 10-2 this season. Woah.

*and thus, perhaps the title of this post is fail-ish.

The last time we went 10-2, Saban was on our sideline, Bill Burke was throwing to Plaxico Burress, and the below-mentioned Julian Peterson was being generally beast-like on defense, among other goodness. Is our current team that good?

I guess my preliminary answer to that question is no, but the Big Ten is meh and we miss Ohio State, so we might not have to be. Implicit in Chengelis's prediction is that we've got a fairly manageable schedule. I think that's true, but it's crazy to look at our schedule and not see difficulty lurking all over the freakin' place:

After warming up cupcake-style against Montana State, we jump right in against a good Central team, led by the quarterback who spawned a million played-out Blue Oyster Cult jokes. (I've got a LeFevour . . . get it??! LOLOLOLOLOLOL!!1) This is the most dangerous MAC team we've played in years, IMO.
@ Notre Dame, a game which is, incredibly, considered an auto-win as a matter of faith by some of the particularly, uh, optimistic segments of the SpartanNation (TM). ND ain't great by any means, but they may be the best passing offense we see all year. (I do think Chengelis is right in that it's essential that our pass rushers show up that day.)
@Wisconsin. We haven't won there since 2001 (although we've only played there twice since then), and they'll be on a revenge mission after last year's meltdown in EL.
vs. Michigan. Yeah.
@Illinois. Chengelis has us losing this game. Truthfully, I think this is a game we'll win -- our rush defense is our biggest question, IMO, and Illinois doesn't have the RB or the line to hurt us there.
vs. Northwestern. Fitzgerald's a great coach, their new quarterback worries me quite a bit, and they ripped us in half the last time they came to EL. Each season, I have a bad feeling about a mid-season game against a less talented team. This year, this is it.
vs. Iowa. I'm even more concerned about this game. Their line play, as always, will be absurd, and I think Stanzi will have a big year. Thankyouthankyouthankyou for the bizarre B10 scheduling which results in getting Iowa at home two years in a row.
@Minnesota. Long trip, haven't played them in several years, new stadium . . . I think we're a substantially better team, but there's enough uncertainty here to make me a little nervous.
vs. Western. Glad that this game's at home instead of in Detroit. They return most of the players from a team which went 9-4 last season. I doubt they're as good as Central, but no MACrifices this season, sadly.
vs. PSU. They're good.

The obvious bit of good news is that we're missing OSU for the next two seasons (hallelujah!), but I don't see that many gimmes in there. 10-2 isn't out of the realm of possibility, but nearly everything would need to go right for that to happen.

It's very early, but what games scare you the most? Is Chengelis crazy, or crazy like a fox?

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The way I see it...

8-4 is a reasonable expectation.
Probable win: Montana State, Central, Western, @ Purdue
Should be favored: @ND, U-M, NU, @Minnesota
Probable underdog: @Wisconsin, @Illinois, Iowa
Probable loss: PSU

by Stuka on May 18, 2009 6:04 PM CDT reply actions

I’m thinking 9-3, with losses to PSU and probably two of Iowa, NW, and Minnesota. I don’t think Wisconsin or Illinois will pose much threat; Illinois has no passing threat and no running back (just a QB with legs but no arm), and Wisconsin came within three missed PATs of losing to Cal Poly last year.

by SpartanDan on May 18, 2009 11:59 PM CDT reply actions

Tougher this year to make a prediction

given that we play the two teams that are probably better than us on paper (PSU/Iowa) at home and most of the teams that are probably a little worse than us (Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Notre Dame) on the road. Plus the CMU/WMU games are unusual: MAC opponents you can’t rule out losing to even if we don’t implode against them.

I’d say 8-4, but with more upside than downside.

Cheer for The Only Colors: Green and White!

by KJ@theonlycolors on May 19, 2009 7:39 AM CDT reply actions

I'm no football expert

But given uncertainty at several important positions, I would be absolutely thrilled with a 10-2 finish. Sign me up for an 8-4 prediction, which seems to be the consensus so far. We’re pretty unproven at QB – I know Cousins played a little bit last year but still, we have no idea really what we have there. No one has shown anything at RB. I’ll believe our defensive secondary is finally up to snuff when I see it. Plus, who knows if our wide receivers are cured of the epidemic of dropsies they had last year. We could be looking at an inconsistent passing offense and zero running game, which doesn’t make for much of an offense. Our D may be pretty good but it is not going to be capable of dominating every game a la OSU. I may revise my prediction based on early season results if we can find a consistent producer at RB and our receivers are consistently catching balls. Until then I don’t see 10-2 as a possibility.

by TheCrestedHelm on May 19, 2009 8:27 AM CDT reply actions

Just because you're paranoid...

I think she’s trying to sabotage MSU’s football season, by creating the perception that anything less than 10-2 is a failure. Or possibly not. But vigilance!

by witless chum on May 19, 2009 8:28 AM CDT reply actions