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TOC Round Table beats Big Ten Media Days to death

Many observers were surprised to see Michigan State picked by the media to finish third in the conference.  What's your take?  Is finishing third a likely outcome?  Any concerns it places too much pressure on a team with a lot of question marks on offense?

KJ:  I suspect we barely beat out Iowa/Illinois/Wisconsin in the voting. The fact they don’t release the voting details—and only go three teams deep—makes the result seem more dramatic than it really probably is.  And the fact we don’t have to play Ohio State was likely the tie-breaker for a lot of voters.  Finishing third in the league is certainly a reasonable goal—but I don’t think we’re a rock solid pick to finish there.

Pete: Third is definitely doable, but I would not say it is likely.  Remember, if Ricky Stanzi doesn't throw a couple of interceptions in the red zone and Bret Bielema retains even a modicum of sanity during the 4th quarter, we're talking about a 7-5 regular season MSU.  That said, this is the most beneficial schedule MSU's been handed in at least a decade; their toughest road game is either Illinois or Wisconsin.  Either Kirk Cousins or Keith Nichol will be, at the very least, competent at quarterback, and if even one running back can emerge from the platoon, MSU has a shot at third.  I'd say they finish tied for fourth.

LVS: Sure, if we get the kind of breaks we did last year, since I think ultimately we'll be a better team this year than we were last year.  But when I look at our schedule, I can't help but see at least three losses: Penn State (because they're clearly better than we are), Iowa (not much of a talent gap, but it'll be difficult beating them two seasons in a row, even at home -- I have a bad feeling about this game), and either at Illinois or Wisconsin.  Those two road games will be key: if we can win at least one of them, we'll be in good shape; win both, and we're a conference title contender.  Out of the two, I'm more confident about Wisconsin; I think at that point in the season, offensive line play will be our biggest liability, and Wisconsin's brand-new defensive line isn't going to be able to exploit that weakness.  Illinois -- who knows?  Either way, 3 losses most likely isn't going to get us fourth place, and 4 losses certainly won't.  A fourth-place finish isn't horrible, and that's what I'll pick.  We'll be beastly in 2010.

Star-divide

Speaking of question marks on offense, one line of thinking is that MSU's quarterback situation, while unsettled, will ultimately be a case of addition by subtraction.  Is that theory a buy or a sell?

KJ: I thought Brian Hoyer got a bit of a bad rap last season. It's hard to be successful when you're constantly being asked to throw on third and long and rarely being given chances on first and ten.  Having said that, I think the addition-by-subtraction theory holds in the long run--by midseason, optimistically. It's just a matter of how long it takes to identify the starter and get that guy comfortable as the leader of the offense. With three seasons of eligibility remaining for both Cousins and Nichol, I think Mark Dantonio will take his time in picking the starter, potentially sacrificing a game or two this season for stability over the next two seasons (when contention for a Big Ten title is more likely).

Pete: That theory's a hold for this year.  While Hoyer didn't exactly make a lot of plays that wound up winning a game, he never threw an interception or had a fumble that caused an MSU loss; the same can't be said for Drew Stanton.  I've got a feeling either Nichol or Cousins will lose a game because of a mistake either makes - they're both rookie quarterbacks, it's what rookie quarterbacks do - but I think by next year, either will be better than Hoyer.

LVS: BUY BUY BUY, if only because we'll have better receiver play this year.  Ho yer didn't do himself any favors most of the time, but he wasn't helped by the obscene amount of drops from Mark Dell, B.J. Cunningham, et al. last year.  Perhaps this is a leap of faith, but I think there will be less of that this season: both of those guys are a year older, and there's a whole lot more depth at the position this season, so they'll each be feeling more pressure to perform.  In any event, I was very impressed with what we saw from Cousins last season: he's got a great arm, and when he was in the game, the coaching staff really didn't hold back at all -- the fact that he was throwing the ball a whole lot shows their faith in him.  Nonetheless, I've said many times that I think Nichol will ultimately be the better quarterback.  Of course it's a bit of a crapshoot, since he barely has any NCAA game experience, and I doubt that any of us have watched it (I certainly haven't); but, everything I've seen in highlights and read in news accounts makes me believe that he's a tremendous athlete and can add versatility and excitement to the offense in spades.  Given that we're breaking in two new quarterbacks, I'm not thrilled that the @Notre Dame/@Wisconsin/Michigan stretch comes so early in the season.  But come mid-to-late October and November, I think we'll be in fantastic shape at QB . . . as long as the offensive line gives them time to throw the ball.

HT to the MGoReaders who helped spark these questions.

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One quibble on the QB situation

Pete, I assume you’ve repressed the memories of the Champs Sports Bowl, because Hoyer had five turnovers in a game we lost by a single score. Hoyer probably gets a worse rap than he deserves because he failed so spectacularly on what was, at the time, easily the biggest stage we’d played on in four years. He was also prone to air-mailing the ball to Abu Dhabi on occasion (the OT loss to Northwestern featured four consecutive incompletions to end the game, at least three of which landed 10+ yards out of bounds). Hoyer may not have had any spectacular “snatch defeat from the jaws of victory” implosions (which Stanton certainly did), but he also didn’t make many game-winning plays.

Both Cousins and Nichol have a higher ceiling than “just don’t screw up”, but early in the season I expect there will be a few bumps in the road.

by SpartanDan on Aug 2, 2009 1:14 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

My English teacher always said never to use absolutes

Yeah, I completely forgot about the Chammps Sports Bowl, you’re right on that one.

However, those plays all happened during his first full season as the starter. I was mainly thinking about the past season, and probably should’ve mentioned that in my response. I think you got my main point though- for as much hype as Nichol and Cousins are getting this season, they will make mistakes, and shouldn’t be thrown under the bus for it.

Co-Manager: The Only Colors

by Pete Rossman on Aug 2, 2009 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Buy, buy, buy

As pointed our by SpartanDan, Hoyer couldn’t blame his low completion percentage last year entirely on stone handedness of his recievers. I know Nichsins (Couschol?) were only playing in a spring game, against a divided secondary with people out, but Hoyer never had a comparable performance in his two spring games. In fact, first Connor Dixon and then Cousins looked better.

Both QBs showed a lot more accuracy and that’s what I’ll hang my MSU hat that I kept from working at the McDonnell Hall cafeteria on for hoping that we’re going to get better overall QB play this year. Overall, being the key word. I think one of them will, chances are, toss away a game this year. One thing I think we underrate about Hoyer’s tenure is that he came in with a lot of experience. Hoyer also was durable, which was much appreciated last year when we were two snaps from Aaron Bates under center.

As to finishing third, I’m not sure. We’d have to be 6-2 at the least, which seems like it might be one win too many. But there’s not a more obvious number three, so “Michigan State, why the heck not?” shall be the rallying cry.

by witless chum on Aug 3, 2009 8:49 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I just hope

We don’t get into a Tom Brady/Drew Henson situation where being enamored with one guy’s athletic potential leaves us blind to who is the better QB. There are a lot of intangibles that go into being a good QB, and just because a guy provides some excitement with his legs doesn’t mean he has an accurate arm or an ability to read defenses and put the ball where it needs to be. Brady had those, and it was obvious to anyone but Henson fanatics that he was the better QB even at U of M. I’m not saying Nichol doesn’t have the intangibles, but that we really don’t know at this point what he’s got. I just want us to play the guy that gets us the best results regardless of how much “upside” the other guy’s athleticism makes us think he has. We also don’t really know what Cousin brings either – maybe Nichol will be better both running and passing and make the decision easy.

As for Hoyer – he wasn’t bad. He was the kind of guy who wouldn’t blow the game for you but wouldn’t put the team on his back and take over a game either. I think his numbers looked worse than they should have yesterday for the reasons Witless Chum cites. We were run oriented so he basically threw on 3rd down and long a lot, and I don’t think they ran that conservative offense because they didn’t trust his ability to thow well. It had more to do with the receivers. When a perfectly thrown ball has a 25% chance of being dropped, it tends to put a damper on your passing attack.

by TheCrestedHelm on Aug 3, 2009 9:03 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

"I’m not saying Nichol doesn’t have the intangibles, but that we really don’t know at this point what he’s got."

That’s why I struggle with this. I was all aboard the Nichol bandwagon earlier this summer, because, well, he’s the new guy, he was more highly recruited out of high school, and he’s coming to us from one of the boldface names in college football, so he must be the best option, right? I’m starting to wonder about this, though. How can I (or any of us) make educated predictions about him when I’ve never really seen him play? As I said above, all we’re going on at this point is reputation and his performance at the spring game (admittedly, a very good showing). Not that I’m totally sold on Cousins, either — but the point is, there are so many things that we just don’t know, and won’t know until 9/5.

"Do not cheat your team or your teammates. Know your plays. Block. Protect. Add to what we are trying to do."
The Only Colors

by LVS on Aug 3, 2009 9:20 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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