So the preseason polls are out, and the Spartans got very little love. Which is surprising because, as Steve Grinczel noted (H/T: Steve Hendershot), preseason polls are generally based on the "recency" effect -- where teams finish the previous season becomes where teams start the next season.
So, I figured, why not go all in on last year being a predictor for this year?
I went to the 2008 Final Sagarin rankings -- using the Predictor model -- and lined out this year's schedule using last year's rankings. And was very unsurprised by what I found.
As you can see, MSU would be a favorite in all but two games: Iowa and Penn State. Using this predictive model, 10-2 is very much within reach.
Since I started this post, the 2009 Preseason Sagarin rankings have been put up. Here is a game-by-game based on preseason Predictor rankings.
Not quite as good for MSU, but still an 8-4 finish.
I personally am predicting 9-3: losses to Penn State, Iowa (although I am growing less sure of this by the day), and at Illinois. I just don't see Notre Dame as that much improved and I think Wisconsin is in the middle of a downward trend.