Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs. Northwestern Wildcats
by KJ@theonlycolors on Jan 1, 2010 5:24 PM CST
in Michigan State Spartans Basketball
23 comments
6:30 P.M. (ET), SATURDAY
TV: BIG TEN NETWORK
Let's start with what I've already written about the Wildcats this week:
Lost to only KenPom top-50 team on nonconference slate. Wins against three teams in 50-125 range keep them in the hunt to end their however-many-years-they've-held-the-tournament NCAA Tournament appearance drought (although they may need 10 or 11 Big Ten wins to accomplish that), despite Kevin Coble's season-ending injury. Could rank them ahead of Gophers, but I'll trust KenPom that the differences in schedule strength and statistical dominance mean Minnesota is the better team. Adjusted for schedule strength, Wildcats look average on both ends of court. Dominance in turnover department continues (5.7 percentage points). Major areas of improvement have been interior scoring (led by John Shurna's .567 two-point%) and forcing tough shots on defense; four players with block percentages of 3.0 or better, holding opponents to 3-point% of .284. Freshman guard Alex Marcotullio leads nation in steal% at 7.0. Michael Thompson (.511/.439/.804 shooting line, top 500 in both assist/TO rates) probably isn't the best-kept secret in the country--but maybe in the conference.
Since those words were written, Northwestern played its Big Ten opener, giving Illinois everything it could handle in Champaign but ultimately losing 89-83 in overtime. SB Nation comrade Sippin' on Purple has your four-factor rundown of that game:
In watching that game, I was struck by what a solid, versatile starting lineup the Wildcats have, even with Kevin Coble out for the season:I really liked the job Northwestern did rebounding the ball. While they got outrebounded by 7, thats very deceiving because the 'Cats missed a lot more field goals than Illinois. They rebounded 75% of the Illini misses, and rebounded just over 25% of their own misses. Davis and Tisdale both had huge rebounding games, but it was a solid team effort for NU as 4 different players had at least 7 rebounds. Of course all those missed shots for Northwestern was definitely a problem, as NU shot just 33% from the field on the game. The problem wasn't from three, as 34% from long range is a decent percentage, but just 12 for 37 on 2-pointers is unacceptably bad. Many times they had makable shots near the basket and couldn't finish. That 2 point percentage definitely needs to improve in a hurry. The bright side on offense was just 3 turnovers in 45 minutes, an incredibly low total. 21/3 team assist to turnover ratio is very impressive.
- Michael Thompson: an efficient point guard averaging 15.9 points and 4.2 assists per game.
- Jeremy Nash: a defensive-oriented off guard who's also shooting the ball pretty efficient (.467/.352/.867) and averaging 3.6 assists/game.
- Drew Crawford: a versatile, athletic freshman swingman who's also scoring efficient (.553/.385/.684).
- John Shurna: a creative scorer from the 4 spot (in the same vein as Coble) averaging 16.8 points and 7.2 rebounds per game.
- Luka Mirkovic: a scrappy interior player averaging 4.8 rebounds (18.5 DefReb%) and 1.2 blocks per game.
Off the bench, Bill Carmody can bring in another shooter (Freshman Alex Marcotullio; .407 3pt%) and a big body (Kyle Rowley).
In terms of the team-level statistical profile, Northwestern is doing all the things Carmody wants his team to do: limiting turnovers (16.2 OffTO%), passing the ball (75.0 A/FGM ratio, 1st in the nation) to create easy baskets (52.9 2pt%), creating turnovers with the 1-3-1 (22.4 DefTO%, down a bit from last season), and forcing tough perimeter shots (28.7 Opp 3pt%). And they're doing all those things while minimizing the traditional weaknesses of Caromdy's system: a lack of offensive agression on offense (35.9 FTR) and allowing offensive rebounds on defense (31.7 Opp OffReb%).
The Wildcats take a full 50.9% of their field goal attempts from 3-point range. Given that volume of beyond-the-arc launches, their team 3-point shooting percentage of 36.1 has been more than adequate.
Going into any game against Northwestern, you know what you have to do to win: make smart passes, knock down 3-pointers, and get out on 3-point shooters (without giving up easy baskets on back cuts). Basically, Bill Carmody forces you to beat his team at its own game. (Just as the Wildcats take a lot of 3-pointers and record assists on a high percentage of made fields goals, they force their opponents to do the same.) The difference so far this season has been that have opponents have had less margin for error in doing those things, as these Wildcats have shown a more well-rounded skillset within Carmody's traditional system.
Draymond Green looks to be a key factor on both ends of the court for MSU. Offensively, he and Raymar Morgan will need to make good passes from the middle of the 1-3-1 to create easy looks around the basket. And he and Delvon Roe will look to create some easy baskets off offensive rebounds against the zone. Defensively, he'll be matched up with a more perimeter-oriented player (Shurna most of the time) and will need to play defense with his feet to prevent drives to the basket. (I'd also expect to see a lot of the small lineup with Morgan at the 4.)
MSU is shooting .381 from 3-point range over its last 6 games, so that's one positive statistical indicator going into this game. Hopefully, the good shooting strokes displayed by Chris Allen and Durrell Summers against UT-Arlington carry forward into this game.
Historically, one big run of easy baskets and hot 3-point shooting has been enough to build a comfortable working margin against the Wildcats. I don't think that'll be the case tomorrow night; it's going to be a 40-minute contest. KenPom likes MSU in this one, but just barely: 70-69 in 66 possessions.
P.S. This preview represents my last blogging act before departing early tomorrow morning for for my annual post-nonconference-season sabbatical at an undisclosed Carribean location. I expect I'll be checking in every couple days, but I'm leaving you in the very capable hands of LVS and Pete for the day-to-day basketball stuff over the next 8 days.
P.P.S. One more link before I go: An interesting behind-the-scenes look from Kyle Whelliston at what it's like to do the official scoring for a college basketball game. Personally, I think I'm much happier analyzing box scores than I would be compiling them.
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Passing
I was heartened by the crispness of our passing at times in the UTA game (especially early), as if we were preparing for NW’s 1-3-1 a game in advance. Let’s hope we crash the boards on the offensive end and our guards bring their shooting touch to Evanston. This game makes me nervous.
By the by, Purdue looked awfully good today. I know they have some depth issues, and sometimes misfire offensively, but it must be nice to be able to simply suffocate another team for a 8-10 minute period the way they did to WVU at the beginning of the second half today. As we know from past experience, it is a lot more comforting as a fan when you know that defensive intensity is a constant.
by RobbingGormanThomas on Jan 1, 2010 8:13 PM CST reply actions
RE: Purdue
It’s a lot easier to suffocate teams when you’re at home and the officials allow Kramer, Moore, and Hummel to manhandle every ballhandler. and cutter. I’m not buying Purdue on a national level until they start beating quality teams (not Alabama) on the road or on neutral floors. They are too dependent on being allowed to maul people on the perimeter. It will catch up to them as it always does.
Those weren't Big Ten refs.
And they called a bunch of fouls. Kramer, Hummel, and Moore all picked up their 3rd fouls early in the 2nd half and they still pulled away. I’m not sure how it “always” catches up to Purdue, but okay. Purdue also beat Tennessee (before their whole team got suspended) on a neutral court, which you failed to mention. Which road games has MSU won this year, again?
My assessment of Purdue isn't a comparison with MSU.
MSU has a ton of their own issues. And Purdue would beat us today on a neutral floor. It catches up to them because they never advance past the round of 16 when they’re playing good teams on neutral courts and aren’t allowed to maul people on the perimeter.
I forgot the Tennessee win. Good point. They beat a fine WVU team at home, and an average Wake team at home.
They’re not the Lakers.
Point Taken
I’ve only seen Purdue 2-3 times this year, but they’ve been impressive defensively, especially in the second halves, when they seem capable of ratcheting up the pressure another notch or two. Never said they were the Lakers, however (and acknowledged that they have flaws): in fact, my point had more to do with wishing MSU had more of a defensive identity we could rely on.
Lastly, if “beating quality teams on the road or on neutral floors” is a criteria for national recognition, there aren’t a lot of contenders out there in December. I think Kansas and Texas only have one true road win each (UCLA & Rice respectively), and even UT’s big win against UNC was in JerryWorld. But sure, home cooking/reffing helps.
by RobbingGormanThomas on Jan 2, 2010 10:25 AM CST up reply actions
It's a good day to watch the Spartans
I think that Sherman and Nix will be able to exert their authorita,r as they continue to improve. I agree thet Day-Day has become a monster and will start, soon. I hope Ramar starts to play like “this is it”, theme song from the 1979 NC game..
Good luck to the football team in the Family Feud Bowl.
Regarding Purdue, let’s see them play at the Brez.
barometer game
The game tonight will provide a good sense of where the team is right now, and what it will do in the Big Ten this year. Winning the league will basically take having no more than 3,4 losses, which means you should really win in Evanston. In the mid 2000s, this was the kind of trap game early in the season in which the team often laid an egg. Also, given the schedule, win tonight and three of the next four games are at home — a 5-0 start would be within sight.
The keys tonight? Perimeter defense and turnovers. If the Wildcats shoot at their season average from three and the Spartans have more than 15 turnovers, this is basically a loss.
I agree about Purdue. It was an impressive game, but they do get away with a lot of very physical play at home. I also think this is a team that relies too much on intensity; by march they always seem to have lost the edge they have in January. I have not seen the minutes, but it seemed like Painter kept in his big guns all the way to the very end, despite the fact that WVU was a beaten team at the 10 minute mark.
Robbie played 29 minutes, E’twaun 30, Kramer 24, and JJ 37. No Purdue player is averaging more than 29 minutes a game so far this year.
Well about the averages
Isn’t that more a function of the non-conference schedule than anything else? You can get away with playing some of the lesser players against the Sun Belt teams of the world, not so much with teams like OSU and MSU. I’d think there’d be at least two Boilermakers with averages above 30 minutes in the conference schedule.
It’s definitely lower during the non-conference. The starters minutes right now are pretty comparable between MSU and Purdue, and while they’ll both go up during conference play, I expect them to stay similar. The point was that I don’t buy the “rely too much on intensity” argument. Purdue didn’t lose to UCONN last year because they lacked intensity. They lost because they were still inexperienced, and we didn’t have the big guys to match up with them.
nothing against Purdue
Hey, I was rooting for them against WVU. I like Painter. They seem like they have always had a clean program, and they have the same kind of values as MSU does — I’m just trying to understand why this team that looked like absolute world beaters yesterday and generally in the early season never seems to do anything in March.
nice preview
gotta be careful when you say something negative about Purdue, their fans are like vultures and will instantly move in to defend their team’s honor.
All I was saying....
is that they aren’t unbeatable and that they get a ton of calls in their building. Most teams do, including MSU. That’s why home court is such a big deal in college basketball, especially in the Big 10. You’re ten points down (at least) before the game even tips in many opposing buildings, such as Purdue, Wisconsin, MSU, Illinois, and Minnesota.
Purdue doesn’t have our record (in previous years) of getting it done on neutral floors in the tournament. Maybe that changes this year. I doubt it.
Not trying to be defensive.
But some of what was said just wasn’t true. I know everyone loves to hate Kramer, but he’s not so different from Walton. The whole “mauling” business is completely overblown, but that’s fine.
In all fairness..
I’ve seen Kramer himself say he fouls on every play but just manages not to get called for it most of the time.
Isn't that what everyone does?
Basketball is a game of doing as much as you can without picking up a foul. That’s how it works in all levels. Kind of like offensive holding – it almost always happens, just a matter of how much you can get away with.
Kramer has his hands on the person he's guarding. Constantly.
Walton was a physical defender, but not at Kramer’s level. It’s also hilarious that Kramer, who is built like a linebacker, falls as if he’s been shot whenever someone touches him.
Well, call it what you want.
I don’t expect to agree on this topic. Not exactly sure where the diving rep comes from though, I certainly haven’t ever seen it. He’s good at frustrating people and then turning that frustration into charges, for sure.
Kind of like the Michigan fans saying that Kramer dove and broke his nose on the floor when Manny was swinging his elbows…although that would definitely be Oscar-worthy.
Not sure if anyone's watching UK/Louisville.
Wall just made a nasty Isiah move for a 3 point play. UK, Texas, and Kansas are above anyone else.
4-point game now.
Wall is good, but he’s not playing very well today. 7 points, 3 assists, 5 turnovers.
He picked it up a bit after I said that.
But you know Cal won’t be happy with those turnovers. Louisville just doesn’t have the skill to keep up with Kentucky at Rupp.
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