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Linking Laconically still hasn't found the ceiling on Draymond Green's statistical brilliance

Bonus nonlaconic commentary after the jump . . .

Star-divide

On Draymond Green

As good as Draymond Green has been since the start of this season (maintaining the efficiency he displayed in limited minutes last season), the scariest thing for MSU opponents may be that he just seems to keep getting better and better.  Here's a graph of Green's game-by-game offensive rating figures this season:

 

Normally, a graph like this one is going to show a lot of fluctuation from game to game.  Outside of a bad performance vs. Gonzaga, though, Green has been remarkably consistent on offense.  Further, he's gotten more and more efficient as the season has progressed.  He's posted a rating of 120+ in the last 8 games and has been at 140+ in 4 ot the last 5 games.

And it's not as if that's been a function of reducing his assertiveness on offense.  As I tweeted the other day, Green now has 27 assists and 7 turnovers in his last 6 games.  An average of 4.5 assists per game is point guard territory.

What exactly is the ceiling on the offensive performance of a 6'6" 235-pound power forward?

On the Eternal BCS/Playoff Debate

Mr. Cook issued his annual pro-playoff discourse a few days ago, using a (largely rhetorical, I think) Joe Posnanski post questioning the benefits of a playoff system as the jumping-off point.  I won't go into much detail here, as this subject has been beaten to death over the last several years, but I do want to reiterate a point I made a couple years ago.

Here's a longish segment from the Posnanski post, with emphasis added:

4. Who would a playoff be for? The college presidents absolutely do not want it. You might disagree with them, but they don’t have any interest in making the seasons even longer and more demanding and more disruptive for their students. The athletic directors and coaches are split — some probably want it for more money or potential glory, but I would bet that most are against it because it just adds strain and pressure to the must-win atmosphere. How about the players? You think they want to make their seasons longer and more demanding? Plus, from what I can tell, those guys LIKE the bowls. They get to spend a week in place, get treated like kings. Why not?

So it would be for the fans. But what fans? Most school-specific fans in college football probably like it just the way it is. Iowa State fans seem to enjoy going to their bowl game every year. A playoff would not affect them … unless the playoff eliminated bowls like it could. That’s how it would be almost every year for 80 or 90 of the 120 or so schools. So it seems to me it would be more for the GENERAL college football fan who likes to watch games on TV. Is that who this is all for?

5. College football is more popular now than it has ever been. There are big games throughout the season — huge, playoff-atmosphere type games. People point to March Madness as a reason for football to go to a playoff, and March Madness is special. But it is also true that the college basketball season is pretty close to meaningless. Texas played North Carolina earlier this year in what seemed like a BIG GAME. But it meant nothing, and nobody cared, and Texas and North Carolina will both be in the tournament with high seeds so … big deal.

I’m not suggesting, as some do, that a playoff would make Ohio State coaches rest players against Michigan like they do in the NFL. But it certainly could make Ohio State-Michigan mean a lot less … and also Georgia-Auburn, Alabama-Tennessee, Penn State-Iowa, USC-Notre Dame, Texas-Oklahoma, Kansas-Missouri, Mississippi-Mississippi State, Washington-UCLA, Kansas State-Nebraska and on and on and on and on and on. Is that worth the price of a playoff?

Part of Brian's response to these questions is to argue that instituting a playoff system wouldn't have any major effect on the lower-tier bowls that fans of non-National-Championship-contending teams (*cough*, us) enjoy seeing their teams participate in.

But I'm not sure that's entirely true.  Here's the argument I made at the old site (again longish):

This illustrates why we’re stuck with the current bowl system. Ultimately, college football is actually too popular for its own good. Fans of most Division 1 football teams will traverse great distances to watch bowl games which decide just about nothing besides which team’s fans get to buy t-shirts that say "20__ _______ Bowl Champions." Only two teams are really playing for something. That makes the other 30+ bowl games pretty much equivalent in nature.

If you had a playoff system, the teams that didn’t make the playoffs would suddenly realize how meaningless their bowl games were and the games would then be reduced to the equivalent of the NIT–something even die-hard fans of the teams participating in it can’t quite take seriously.

From a philosophical perspective, a sports’s postseason games should fulfill two purposes:

  • Determine a champion–i.e., "the best team."
  • Entertain fans of the sport.

To some extent, these two goals compete with one another. The NBA goes to one extreme–systematically determining a champion that is more often than not truly the best team in the league, with a relatively low level of drama along the way. NCAA basketball goes to the other extreme–proving entertaining, do-or-die games at the expense of some of the best teams getting upset early in the tournament.

The BCS system manages to do neither thing well. There’s almost always controversy as to whether the teams competing for the championship are the most deserving, since there’s no objective standard as to who gets to compete in the one postseason game that matters. And the college football postseason isn’t all that entertaining since only one of the 30+ games counts for anything besides mere bragging rights.

In the end, I guess the current system has managed to make college football as popular among the fans of major college teams as it is. But the system (which has been cemented in place for at least another year) detracts from the sport’s appeal to a broader audience. The closest comparable system for determining a champion in the sports world is boxing–where some guys no one has ever heard of set up match-ups they think will be competitive and financially rewarding.

Note that I agree entirely with Brian in principle on the idiocy of the current system and the rationale for a playoff system.  I just think there would be a potential negative economic impact for less high-profile football programs--and their conferences--which is part of the reason the BCS conferences aren't interested in a playoff system.

OK, I'll leave it there.  Peace (re)spoken for another year. 

On Our Esteemed Readers

The SB Nation corporate office recently provided us with lists of the top contributors to the blog in 2009.  Here are the lists for the various types of reader-submitted content:

Most Active Commenters

User Count
KJ@theonlycolors 798
LVS 559
DrDetroit 242
CPT Hoolie 238
intrpdtrvlr 228
nickexperience 227
msufan23 186
witless chum 182
Stones1981 178
Seer 176

Most FanPosts

User Count
CPT Hoolie 17
DrDetroit 16
Ken Braun 8
Seer 5
msufan23 4
RickTheBloggerMartel 4
Pete Rossman 4
witless chum 4
intrpdtrvlr 3
MSULaxer27 3

Most FanShots

User Count
KJ@theonlycolors 113
LVS 61
Seer 25
Pete Rossman 14
Spartalytical 6
CPT Hoolie 5
Con-T 4
NoPoSparty 3
Stuka 3
intrpdtrvlr 3

Congrats to DrDetroit, CPT Hoolie, and Seer for being the top contributors in the respective categories when you remove us blog manager types from the rankings. And thanks to everyone who piped up in 2009 to help get things rolling here at TOC.  Here's to an even bloggier, and greener/whiter, 2010.

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Draymond Green’s becoming one of my favorite Spartans of my lifetime.

My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.

Now I write at Bless You Boys.

Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.

by Mike Rogers on Jan 11, 2010 10:26 PM CST reply actions  

Mine, too

Partially because I started dating a wonderful woman (2 years + now) and her hometown is Saginaw. Being a WMU Bronco by education, she started watching the team with me and Day Day, as representing Sagnasty, has been part of bringing us together as she adopts my feverish love of MSU basketball. Goofy, I know. Before he even got a lot of playing time we would cheer together for him when he came on the court and I would relay to her his impressive contributions in limited minutes and overall efficiency. Then, of course, he exploded at the end of the season and all of Spartan Nation took notice.
Even personal bias aside, he seems like a basketball fan’s basketball player. How can you not love his game?

I’d love to see him go as far as his talent can take him. Perhaps even better physical shape can up his athleticism to where Green can really compete at the NBA-level using his knowledge of the game and natural nose for the ball. I hope so but it’s a big-time up hill battle, I think.

by intrpdtrvlr on Jan 11, 2010 10:35 PM CST up reply actions  

Enos

Tremendous opportunity for him, of course, and I (we, I’m sure) wish him all the best. Nonetheless, I’m fairly surprised at CMU’s decision. It would seem to me that following the success of Brian Kelly and Butch Jones, they’d have their choice of young coaching prospects. And they go with . . . someone who’s never been a coordinator, and whose position group (running backs) had a mediocre season? True, he’s a fantastic recruiter—and we’re going to miss him a lot in that department—but I dunno, it just strikes me as a strange choice. Wouldn’t you want to hire someone who at least has playcalling experience?

by LVS on Jan 11, 2010 10:42 PM CST reply actions  

Agree completely

There is no way in which this doesn’t suck if you are an MSU fan, and there is no way in which this works out as well for CMU as the last 2 HC’s there have.

by DP99 on Jan 12, 2010 3:12 PM CST up reply actions  

Good for Dan Enos...

…sucks for us. If he were were going to leave, I wish he’d gotten this oppurtunity somewhere a little further out of MSU’s recruiting ground.

I’d assume CMU looked at all the plaudits Enos received in recruiting and thought of the adage, “It’s Jimmys and Joes, not Xs and Os.”

As for CMU, we’ll see what life is like without the Rust Belt Tebow (tm Holly Anderson).

Also FWIW, if you read down futher in KJ’s link, Enos was offensive coordinator at 1-AA Missouri State, too. I never knew he’d been at WMU, either.

by witless chum on Jan 13, 2010 8:02 AM CST up reply actions  

If only...

I had participated in more football game threads.

by DrDetroit on Jan 12, 2010 5:32 AM CST reply actions  

Also...

thanks for putting this site up and letting me run my mouth here!

I think you guys did a great job this year.

by DrDetroit on Jan 12, 2010 5:33 AM CST up reply actions  

Green

The most impressive thing about him is he hangs on to the ball – his turnover rate is lower than every one of our perimeter players, and his assist rate trails only Lucious’s (who leads the team). His assist rate is higher than Lucas’s by a percentage point per possession, and he turns it over less. If he develops an outside shot by next year, and Nix and Sherman develop to the point where they can play significant minutes, we may want to think about moving him out to the wing.

by TheCrestedHelm on Jan 12, 2010 8:45 AM CST reply actions  

Thinking Green

I think his ceiling is quite high. Dropping a few pounds will get him there faster. In terms of progress, I compare him with Mo Pete. He is ahead of Mo at this point in his career. Granted they are much different players, but Mo made huge strides from sophomore to junior. I see Green continuing on similar path. It is so rare that he makes a mistake on the court, that when he does it seems shocking. I believe his jersey may be the next one hanging from the rafters.

by donaldo on Jan 12, 2010 10:06 AM CST reply actions  

NBA Draft

Ability aside, we should ask what it’s going to take for Green to get a shot. The NBA really privileges height. JaJuan Blair owned Hasheem Thabeet on the court where it should matter most, yet their heights made the latter a top five pick while Blair went well into the 2nd round.
If scouts/GMs were suspicious of Blair’s success at the NBA level, what will they think of Day Day?

by intrpdtrvlr on Jan 12, 2010 12:28 PM CST up reply actions  

So true...

And the problem with the Barkley comparison is how preternaturally explosive Barkley was as a load at Auburn and early in his NBA days. Day Day has certainly the court savvy and is clearly nimble and athletically gifted, but Barkley was freakishly so. I wonder about someone like Corliss Williamson as a comparison, but with more of a point forward skill set. Or I could just let him be Day Day….

by RobbingGormanThomas on Jan 12, 2010 12:38 PM CST up reply actions  

Oh, the Barkley picture was totally TIC.

Day-Day is awesome, but, uh, a long way from Barkley.

by LVS on Jan 12, 2010 1:22 PM CST up reply actions  

Good call on Big Nasty

Not quite tall or explosive enough to be prototype, but managed to figure out a couple of moves around the basket by the end of his career. He and Mike James were the closest thing to instant offense off the bench for the 04 Pistons champs. Day-Day trades in strength for passing ability compared to Nasty, but drop some more bad weight and replace with muscle, now I think we have an NBA player.

by DP99 on Jan 12, 2010 3:17 PM CST up reply actions  

I like that comparison too

Because, um, national championship.

by LVS on Jan 12, 2010 3:22 PM CST up reply actions  

I don’t really buy that bowl assertion because it’s not like the people attending these things don’t already know their event is a sidelight at best, and because there are a crapload of empty seats at most of them.

by Brian @ MGoBlog on Jan 12, 2010 11:20 AM CST reply actions  

Yeah, but it’s a sidelight in fundamentally the same way that, say, the Orange Bowl was a sidelight—a game between two teams from different conferences in an exotic location that has zero meaning in terms of determining the sport’s “champion.”

I’m making an assertion about the psychology of college football fans, so I won’t be dogmatic about it. And maybe I’m overstating the economic consequences of the lower-tier games. (Doesn’t look like the Big Ten nets that much off the non-BCS games.) But I do think that, once you have 5-15 postseason games with real meaning (instead of a single game), the other 30 games are going to lose quite a bit of whatever luster they have right now.

Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!

by KJ@theonlycolors on Jan 12, 2010 12:00 PM CST up reply actions  

Read Bowls Polls and Tattered Souls by Stewart Mandel

He comes the closest to making any kind of logic for the BCS/College football fiasco.

by Chris in Kzoo on Jan 12, 2010 2:42 PM CST up reply actions  

Its been a while...

But I think it went something like… Money, Greed, Jim Delany, ND, & Money.

by Chris in Kzoo on Jan 12, 2010 4:58 PM CST up reply actions  

Watching Purdue-OSU

Hummel has been an absolute freak so far: 23 points, including six threes, and we’re just at the first-half under-4 timeout.

by SpartanDan on Jan 12, 2010 6:41 PM CST reply actions  

No kidding

First half was the Robbie Hummel show, the second has been Evan Turner.

by SpartanDan on Jan 12, 2010 7:55 PM CST up reply actions  

70-66 final. Wowowowow

Purdue with 2 conference losses already?!?

by LVS on Jan 12, 2010 7:56 PM CST up reply actions  

Even bigger

A home loss. It may be early for +/- standings, but Purdue is at -1 with that loss, while we’re +2 so far.

Light a man a fire, he'll stay warm for a day.
Light a man afire, he'll be warm for the rest of his life.

by Seer on Jan 12, 2010 8:26 PM CST up reply actions  

Well, that will shake up the Big Ten race

Home loss for one of the big contenders. (Then again, we had a couple of those last year and still won pretty comfortably.)

by SpartanDan on Jan 12, 2010 7:56 PM CST reply actions  

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