Why is the First Minute the Worst Minute?

Hey, apparently we're not alone in struggling offensively during the first few minutes of games. Using play-by-play data from a large sample of games, Mr. Pomeroy finds that there's an odd lack of offensive aggressiveness and shooting efficiency in the first couple minutes of college basketball games.

He doesn't provide any data on turnover rates in the opening minutes of games, though, so we can continue to assume that that maddening statistical characteristic is unique to our beloved Spartans.

over 2 years ago KJ@theonlycolors 4 comments 0 recs |

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An alternative explanation

is that teams are playing better D early in the games because they haven’t lost focus or energy yet, so they are better a preventing high percentage, around the rim, shots from the opposing offense.

by TheCrestedHelm on Jan 13, 2010 11:07 AM CST reply actions

This is a very good point

Easy to come out fired up on defense, which is more about hustle/energy.

Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!

by KJ@theonlycolors on Jan 14, 2010 7:30 AM CST up reply actions

Definitely

…and I assume too with their pre-game preparation fresh in mind, they are reading the opponent’s offensive sets and tendencies more quickly. As we always say about the Big Ten, there is such familiarity by now—especially with many teams with uniquely identifiable styles of play and system coaches with some tenure—that it is hard to surprise anyone. It seems they suffocate your first and second options regularly.

by RobbingGormanThomas on Jan 13, 2010 11:30 AM CST reply actions

Is this an argument

For starting Draymond Green? (Pomeroy comments that it might pay to start the “energy” guy instead of bringing him off the bench.) Might help with the early turnover problems too.

by Con-T on Jan 13, 2010 8:29 PM CST via mobile reply actions