Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick: Michigan State 70, Iowa 63
by KJ@theonlycolors on Jan 20, 2010 9:32 PM CST
in Michigan State Spartans Basketball
25 comments
I'm tempted to just repost this comment and be done with it:
But I'm contractually obligated to write something resembling a complete game recap. Let's start with the numbers:
Outside of the rebounding department, Iowa played MSU almost dead even. MSU's free throw rate advantage was negated by shooting only 64.7% from the line.
I'm not sure there's really much to learn from the four-factor numbers. Ultimately the underwhelming nature of the final scoreline came down to a lack of intensity from MSU. This embedded graph probably tells the story more clearly:
Under the circumstances, I can understand the Spartan players coming out somewhat lacking in zeal. They eventually found their rhythm and built a 12-point halftime lead.
The problem came in the final 8 minutes. As they have several times in recent weeks, MSU lost its focus after building a big lead. This time their opponent took advantage, as Iowa suddenly got hot from 3-point range. The Hawkeyes made 5 of their final 9 three-point attempts--a couple of them from Talor Battle range by Cully Payne and Eric May--after having hit only 2 of their first 16 shots from beyond the arc.
Three MSU players scored in double digits, but I have a grievance to air regarding each of them (official box score is here):
- Raymar Morgan scored 16 points but shot just 2-6 from the free throw line, helping Iowa stay within striking distance late.
- Durrell Summers scored 12 points but was somehow 0-4 from 3-point range, instead hitting a series of long 2-pointers with a foot on the line.
- Kalin Lucas scored 11 points but took 11 FG attempts to get there, shooting just 1-5 from beyond the arc.
If there's a star in this game, I guess it would be Draymond Green: 9 points, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks 1 steal. Korie Lucious also played well, posting 7 points, 2 assists, and zero turnovers. He bounced back from a bad drive in the final seconds of the first half that led to a dunk by Iowa going the other way to score a basket late in the shot clock when Iowa had squeezed the lead down to 3 points with 2 minutes to go (one of only 4 unassisted MSU baskets in the game).
I'll stop there. I don't think this game is anything to get too worked up about; LVS pointed out to me that MSU only beat Iowa by 8 at home last year and things worked out OK. If anything, this gives Tom Izzo just the excuse he needs to keep a team that's 6-0 in conference play motivated.
Having said that, a performance like tonight's won't come close to getting the job done at Williams Arena on Saturday (noon, CBS).
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Uhh
Slow start. Lackadaisical finish. A recipe for disaster against a quality club, and an almost-disaster against a marginal opponent. Hopefully there will be an awakening.
Ugh
Noon game this weekend? Shouldn’t being a powerhouse program grant you an exception from games that early?
Light a man a fire, he'll stay warm for a day.
Light a man afire, he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
The next two days of practice...
will not be pleasant.
We might lose Saturday, but we’ll play better than we did today, no matter what. The players will be fairly sick of their screaming coach by the time the ball goes up.
We have a tendency ...
to try to make the highlight reel, rather than keep the foot on the neck and maintain a lead. I agree that we are ripe for an upset and this game is motivation for this weekend.
The stupid alley-oop tries
Don’t try to be fancy when it’s not open. We’ve been doing that ever since the Ager/Brown days, but (at least in ‘05) they had the sense not to throw it when it’s guarded. (Helps that both of them were ridiculously good jumpers and dunkers – alley-oops are more often open when you can throw them two feet above the rim.)
oh the drama!
I just love the tone of the coverage in the press; it’s really as if the Spartans had lost the game! Obviously, the team was a bit lackadaisical, and packed it in a bit early. I suspect Izzo has been driving them hard in practice, and they were looking ahead to the road trip. I will say that Izzo seemed to take a big win for granted as well, since he gave quality minutes to Thornton (who missed two wide open 15 footers) and Dahlman, and played the freshmen more than usual. But let’s not get carried away — Iowa basically made a few shots late, some not at all the fault of the defenders, and on the other end MSU did not shoot the ball well. A few extra threes go in, and this remains a blow out. Why the guards are suddenly cold from three point is mysterious. That and foul shots — once again Morgan completely lost his touch at the line.
Good point on Thornton/Dahlman
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Jan 21, 2010 8:15 AM CST up reply actions
Less snarky.
It appears a post I made was deleted.
So I will ask in a polite manner.
What does the “lead safe” analysis tell us?
You have posted why the “4 factors” are important and how to interpret those graphs.
Can you explain the benefit of the “lead safe” analysis to our understanding of the game and our teams performance?
It’s a calculation Bill James came up with that tells us, based on history, at what point a team has effectively locked up the game. It’s roughly comparable to win probability in baseball.
The graph above tells us that MSU was right on the verge of locking up the game with 10 minutes to go when they lost intensity and let Iowa back in. Of course, the gap between the two scoring lines tells basically the same story (which is why I posted the graph).
I’m not sure why someone would get worked up the “lead safe” stat. Do we think the players are checking what the number is during timeouts and reducing their effort based on it?
I have not deleted any comments in this thread.
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Jan 21, 2010 9:52 AM CST up reply actions
I read the slate article when it was originally posted.
Maybe it’s because Bill James rubs me wrong. I like statistical analysis but there’s just something about James that irks me. When I read the article, he came across as very neurotic…to wit, you’re at a KU hoops game and instead of rooting for the team your staring at the scoreboard and doing calculations in your head to figure out when the lead is “safe”.
Part of the enjoyment I get out of being a fan is notknowing that we are going to win. I apreciate the struggle…proving that you are the better team.
Thank you for responding.
Bill James can certainly rub people the wrong way at times
(Being a genius often times goes hand in hand with being a bit on the arrogant side.)
But, to me, the “lead safe” stat is just one more analytical tool. Use it when it’s appropriate; ignore it when it’s not.
In this particular situation, I’m pretty sure most of us, at the 10 minute mark, were thinking, “Well, this looks like a comfortable MSU win.” Which is exactly what the “lead safe” stat would have been telling us at the time.
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Jan 21, 2010 4:06 PM CST up reply actions
Izzo got exactly what he wanted
Methinks this was sort of a “figure it out your damn selves” game by Izzo. He played a lot of weird lineups and gave a lot of minutes to Thornton/Dahlman/Sherman. I think that from about 8:00 of the first half, he was trying to create a close game and see who responded. With the killer part of the schedule coming up, it was time to see who can be trusted mentally in a close-and-late spot. Lucious, Roe, Morgan and Nix gained trust. Lucas and Summers lost trust. Green and Allen did nothing to lose trust, but were two of the most trusted guys anyway. I’d not be the slightest bit surprised to see a Lucious/Morgan/Green/Roe/Allen combination on the floor late in the second half at Minnesota.
Is it just me, or has this season seen a remarkable number of 26+ foot threes made against MSU at important times? Without them, this was a ho-hum 16 point game.
Very nice game from Iowa. Gatens, Fuller, and May can be the foundation of a really good team for the next two years. If Iowa can get anyone to provide any post presence to keep the defense honest, and maybe grab an offensive board or two, I think this group contends for the 2011-12 B10 championship.
Lucas air balls
Once again, with the game on the line (remember the Wisconsin game), Lucas shoots up a three pointer that seems about a foot short. This time, I did wonder if he got hit on the elbow as he was shooting. Otherwise, I’m not sure I want him shooting threes at the end!
I think Lucas has proven himself in the clutch
His performance in last year’s tournament, especially the KU game,should exempt him from being questioned for clutch-time performance.
by TheCrestedHelm on Jan 21, 2010 4:30 PM CST up reply actions
Driving, sure
Not sure he’s our best long-range bomber late.
Interesting Comments via Rexrode
Izzo had a lot to say about the team. Green shows why he is the leader of this team. I believe he will motivate these guys and hold them accountable.
http://noise.typepad.com/hey_joe/2010/01/i-just-watched-the-game.html
shows the potential
that Izzo thinks this club has. Maybe not just “this club” but really “this club this year”, if you look at the landscape of college basketball, there is no dominate team(s), unlike last year (UNC). It is very much wide open and good play in March could make a historic year.
luttez pour les seuls couleurs, vert et blanc
by vert_et_blanc on Jan 21, 2010 11:13 AM CST up reply actions
Odd game
Raymar scored a very quiet 16 points. And his play was marred with some poor defense down the stretch.
MSU is looking good but I still worry about their defense. Iowa had too many open looks from 3, and the interior defense continues to be a concern.
Waiting for April.
Open looks
Besides for the lapses, which definitely ARE a problem, I thought our defense in conference play has been solid. Iowa hit a number of deep, contested three-pointers.
Agreed.
Flipping through the game on TiVo, I saw a lot of good defense by us and a bunch of hellacious made shots by them. Not much you can do about that.
PP-TPW.
The Only Colors
No BTN for me
I listened to the game on the WJR internet fee because my cable company doesn’t carry the Big 10 network. That’s what I get for living in ACC/Big East country. Anyway, they interviewed Izzo after the game and he almost sounded like there had been a death in the family. I got the impression that he was sorry Iowa lost – probably because they gave maximum effort while we coasted for parts of the game. In his mind, maximum effort should always be rewarded.
recap
Talor Battle plays for Penn State, not Iowa!
Good analysis of the game though.
http://bleacherreport.com/users/138313-adam-biggers
I’m a Featured Columnist and syndicated writer, check out my Spartan articles, too.
GO GREEN, GO WHITE!
correction
My fault, you were using Battle as an example. Didn’t mean to come off as a “you know what!”
Sorry!
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Well, it's a win
6-0 in the Big Ten. Now let us never speak of this game again.
by SpartanDan on Jan 20, 2010 5:32 PM PST