Those Pesky Turnovers

by Con-T on Jan 27, 2010 10:29 PM CST Comment 13 comments

[Bumped. Good post on a bad topic. -KJ]

Although last night's turnover meltdown against Michigan was discouraging, I figured we had to be doing something right this season, and we are. When we DON'T turn the ball over, we're the best scoring offense in the conference. John Gasaway uses a statistic he calls points per effective possession (PPEP). This measures how well you score in your turnover-less possessions. Here's how the conference stacks up so far this season (conference-only games, stats from Statsheet.com):

Team	Poss	Points	TO	TO%	PPEP
Michigan State	519	541	116	22.4%	1.34
Ohio State	447	454	97	21.7%	1.30
Minnesota	536	554	105	19.6%	1.29
Purdue	467	495	79	16.9%	1.28
Michigan	494	496	99	20.0%	1.26
Iowa	449	413	115	25.6%	1.24
Illinois	476	477	90	18.9%	1.24
Penn State	435	420	94	21.6%	1.23
Northwestern	513	533	78	15.2%	1.23
Wisconsin	477	492	65	13.6%	1.19
Indiana	465	421	109	23.4%	1.18

Not too many surprises here. It does show an interesting contrast in styles. We're better than only Indiana and Iowa at holding on to the ball, but we can light it up when we do. Wisconsin apparently needs to be as frugal as they are with their possessions, as points are not as easy to come by for them.

It was forecast by many before the season that we would need to improve on offense to offset the defensive losses of Travis Walton and Goran Suton. The most obvious way to do that would be to cut down on turnovers. In fact, the turnover problem has gotten worse (22.1% in conference last year) and our improved shooting (52.9 eFG% vs. 49.8 last year) and steady offensive rebounding (40.7% both years) have only left us pretty close to where we were last year (1.08 PPP vs. 1.11).

Which is still pretty darn good. But just think where we might be if we could just shave a little off those TOs. . .

This is a FanPost, written by a member of the TOC community. It does not represent the official positions of The Only Colors, Inc.--largely because we have no official positions.

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The only kind of turnovers I like are filled with apple

I keep wanting to forgive Korie Lucious due to the massive amount of development he missed because of his injury. What’s that line Izzo says? “Players are made in the summer” or something? Hopefully next summer will secure his halfcourt ball management skills. If Kalin leaves, he’ll be a big time component of running the offense. Can’t expect Appling to come in and run the point guard show.

by intrpdtrvlr on Jan 28, 2010 1:01 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

agree Lucious turnovers puzzling

For a point guard, his turnovers are puzzling. Just watching the game, they appear often
to be careless turnovers (ie steals when his dribble is coming up too high and his body
is not really guarding the ball). I thought his height would actually tend him towards being
harder to steal without fouling and be a huge liability on defense. Actually it seems the opposite with his defense much better than i expected for his height. He is really down in his defensive stance but seems to be using his quickness to help his defense much more
effectively this year.

He does make phenomenal no look passes which can sometimes be turnovers though
it doesn’t seem like a high percentage of his turnovers are due to this, without watching film and categorizing his turnovers (which i’m sure is happening at MSU). Occasionally he makes a great no look pass and the recipient goofs up by not expecting it.

I also think Lucas is likely gone after this year unless he tanks horribly in the tournament. Like what you read about Appling but it will be Lucious as the main man
next year if Lucas leaves.

Watching the Michigan game and their lack of point guard and MN and PUR, i really appreciated TI’s new strategy of always having 2 true point guards available and really
using one at the 2 significantly so they both play. He seems to have the recruits so that he will never again be stuck in Marcus Taylor, Brandon Cotton situations of having no
true point guard again.

by wifeofaspartan on Jan 28, 2010 8:34 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Bless him for trying

But I never want to see the days of Rashi Johnson again.

by intrpdtrvlr on Jan 28, 2010 9:17 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

TO issues

While he turned it over 4 times Tuesday night, I’d note that Lucious’ TO rate is actually down dramatically from last year: 23% vs. 32%.

Summers and Roe are having just as many issues from a statistical standpoint.

Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!

by KJ@theonlycolors on Jan 28, 2010 9:16 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Lucious looked good at the beginning of the year

He actually had a phenomenal assist to turnover rate for a while. Lately it has dropped off, so lets hope this is just a blip.

I really think Wisconsin gives up too much by conceding offensive rebounds and would be better served by going after them a lot more. I know there’s a hazard of giving up more fast break points, but we battle for rebounds and teams don’t consistently kill us on fast breaks off missed baskets (fast breaks off turnovers on the perimeter, yes, fast breaks off rebounds, no). They obviously have the talent because, at least until Leuer went down, they were leading the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. It would seem that the extra shots they’d get from going for rebounds on the offensive end would more than offset the points they’d give up to the other team, but I guess Bo Ryan must know something I dont. You certainly can’t argue with his success.

Tom Crean – Izzo/Heathcote protege. Indiana – turnover issues. Maybe it’s the system? I’d have to look at his record at Marquette to confirm that hypothesis, and I don’t even know to be honest whether he run the same or a similar offensive system.

by TheCrestedHelm on Jan 28, 2010 12:08 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

It's getting worse in conference play

For everybody except Draymond Green and Durrell Summers.

Korie Lucious (23.0% overall —> 29.2 in conference)
Delvon Roe (23.7 —> 26.9)
Chris Allen (19.9 —> 24.1)
Durrell Summers (21.9 —> 20.5)
Raymar Morgan( 16.7 —> 20.5)
Kalin Lucas (19.3 —> 20.1)
Draymond Green (17.2 —> 14.0)
Derrick Nix (12.1 —> 12.5)

by Con-T on Jan 28, 2010 12:20 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Also

Ohio State might edge us on offense by the end of the year because right now their numbers are being dragged down by the games Evan Turner missed. With him they are one heck of an offense.

Our defense is actually better than last year in conference play so far (that may change as the schedule toughtens up). Our opponents are averaging 2.6 fewer points per 100 possessions against us this year than last.

by TheCrestedHelm on Jan 28, 2010 2:14 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Mentioned this to KJ the other day: how fortunate is it that we don’t have to go to Columbus? I would not feel good about that game.

PP-TPW.
The Only Colors

by LVS on Jan 28, 2010 2:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

We lucked out on that one

but we only get Indiana once this year, which sort of makes up for it.

Looking at the Wisconsin game – the schedulers really did us a favor. We played Tuesday, they have a big game tonight. We play Saturday and they have a game on Sunday. Then we play them Tuesday night – we’ll be their third game in 5 days and second game in 3 days. We should definitely have the better legs.

by TheCrestedHelm on Jan 28, 2010 4:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

As someone brought up earlier when discussing this

I wonder if the high points per effective possession isn’t correlated to the high turnover rate in some sense. Perhaps it’s a result of making high-risk, high-reward plays (so we’re more likely to turn it over, but also more likely to get a spectacularly easy basket – witness the crazy alley-oop attempts we’ve had occasionally, as these are either a basket or a turnover with not much room for another result). Obviously, this isn’t the case with all our turnovers – some are just from being sloppy or careless, and some are great defensive plays by the other team. But it may be that it’s a conscious choice to risk some extra turnovers in order to get better results on the remaining possessions. Similarly, Wisconsin’s low PPEP is likely because they don’t take chances with the ball and end up taking a contested shot instead of making a risky pass which would either lead to an easier shot or a turnover.

by SpartanDan on Jan 28, 2010 4:04 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I think there is something to this

I don’t think it’s a necessary correlaton (Duke, for example, has 1.42 PPEP with a 16.8% TO%) but it would be something for Izzo and his staff to keep in mind when tackling this problem. It would be interesting to undertake an investigation of how the turnovers break down similar to the one KJ did here to try and figure out what the types are that could be addressed without blunting our offensive approach.

by Con-T on Jan 28, 2010 5:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs