Your Wisconsin v. Michigan State Basketball Preview
by Pete Rossman on Jan 5, 2010 8:09 PM CST
in Michigan State Spartans Basketball
24 comments
Here's the four factors graph for each team to this point:
While Wisconsin has the better Pomeroy ratings (#4 to MSU's #19, #12 to MSU's #60 on defense - offense is dead equal with a rating of 116.8 for each team), the four factors graph shows that these teams are closer than you think. The only significant differences are in turnover percentage, which Wisconsin predictably leads, and offensive rebounding percentage, where MSU also predictably leads.
The key to this game will be how well Michigan State can offensively rebound. Michigan State is eighth in the nation in this statistic, rebounding 42.1% of its misses. Wisconsin is even better at defensive rebounding however, they only allow opponents to collect 23.8% of its misses; that rate is first in the nation. If Draymond Green, Delvon Roe and Raymar Morgan can out maneuver the Badger forwards for State's missed shots, one of the cornerstones of the Badger defense will be compromised.
The Badgers have quickly risen to prominence this season thanks to the much improved play of Jon Leuer. The 6'10" forward averages about 27 minutes a game but is extremely efficient. He scores 15.8 points per game and has a Pomeroy offense rating of 128.5, ranking 31st in the nation. To boot, his offensive and defensive rebounding percentages both rank in the nation's top 100, and his turnover percentage is one of the nation's 50 best. If you wanted to name him Big Ten MVP to this point, I wouldn't complain.
The other important Badgers include Trevon Hughes, who's leading Wisconsin in scoring with 16.5 PPG. Sophomore guard Jordan Taylor leads the team in assists with 3.35 per game. Jason Bohannon, seemingly in his 15th season in a Badger uniform, has the highest three point percentage with 42.6%.
Besides offensive rebounds, the other key for State will be the same one it's been since the beginning of time - limit turnovers. They're not facing a team that forces turnovers in Wisconsin (19.2% opponents' TO%, that's 250th in the nation), so the onus will be on the Spartans to hit their alley-oops and keep the travels to a minimum.
As for prediction, Pomeroy has the Badgers winning 67-66 in a 63 possession game. I don't see it that way, and one intangible that could swing a Spartan win is the Izzone alumni. About 850 Izzone alumni have tickets to this game, including LVS, and if they're as loud as they say they were back then, they'll be able to hear the Bres at Oades' Big Ten (note to non-MSU readers - yes, that's far away from the Breslin Center). The data indicates a Wisconsin win, but there's no way I'd be able to live with myself if I predicted a Badger victory.
YOUR MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS 69, WISCONSIN 62
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Toss-Up
This is definitely a game that could trip the team up, no doubt about it. At the same time, if MSU can win these sorts of games it’ll make the defense of the Big Ten title a lot easier.
Alumni
better bring it in the Izzone, I wish I could be there to hate those filthy clutching, hacking, flopping Badgers in person.
HATE!
Light a man a fire, he'll stay warm for a day.
Light a man afire, he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
+100
I was quite disappointed that I couldn’t make it to this game. I have a feeling it will be quite loud for the Wisky floppers.
Always true, but even more so tonight
An appearance by the all-conference version of Raymar Morgan would be really helpful tonight. I don’t think Wisconsin has anyone that can match up with him.
Go Green.
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Jan 6, 2010 8:41 AM CST reply actions
height up front
MSU is much more athletic than these guys, but Wiscy’s height and bulk up front worry me a bit, particularly if they are able to control tempo. This is a good game for Nix to show up.
I do think the “Bo Ryan is a genius” line is getting annoying. He is a good coach, no doubt about it, but his teams never get credit for having talented players, and in fact they have had as much talent as anyone in the Big Ten. He is underrated as a recruiter, not in the sense that he can can McDonald all Americans and other highly touted recruits every year, though he has gotten as many 3-5 star players as anyone else in the big ten, except for Matta. He does have an an eye for relatively underrated talent that fits his system. In Devin Harris, after all, he had perhaps the best pro prospect the Big Ten has had in the last decade. Lauer was I think a three star recruit, who has slowly developed, sort of like Suton. But he is just as reliant on the quality of his players as anyone else. And I think the quality is down a bit from the past. The idea that they challenge for the Big Ten this year I find pretty incredible. I see them coming in 4th or 5th.
Of course, if the spartans shoot the way they did in Evanston, then it’s a blow out, anyway.
Agree on height/bulk up front being worrisome
Roe/Green will need work hard to deny Leuer good position, as I think he’ll be able to get his shot off without too much difficulty.
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Jan 6, 2010 8:53 AM CST up reply actions
According to...
…Jim Comparoni on the radio this morning, Wiscy did have two McDonalds All-americans recently, in Brian Butch and I can’t remember the other guy.
It’s a canard on the level of Michigan State being afraid to run with Louisville.
Comparoni’s opinion was that Izzo really wants to beat Wiscy every year and that trickles down to the players and they play “tight,” while the Badgers tend to play looser and glory in the role as MSU irritant.
Not that I'm advocating thuggery
but, like theRPS below, I agree: might this be a prime Derrick Nix game? If you plant him down in the paint he could serve for making the lane a little more physically intimidating place to be. Make Wisky earn those flops.
Couple him with Roe’s athleticism and Morgan’s versatility and I think Wisconsin should be in big trouble.
Also
I have every confidence that the alumni Izzone will be a huge factor. It’s my understanding that LVS has been practicing jumping up and down and yelling for 120 minutes consecutively 3 times per week for the last several months.
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Jan 6, 2010 8:51 AM CST reply actions
Season defining game
Yeah, seriously. This is the game where it is brick-to-face obvious that going big is the best strategy. If either Nix or Sherman (or both) is (are) going to be a major factor this year, this is where it will start. If one of them comes up big today, MSU has the eight-man rotation it needs to be a legit Final Four contender. If not, well, I’m not going to “The Secret” that Sweet-16 exit to myself.
I’m calling the Derrick Nix breakout game. 25 minutes, 14 points (5-7 FG, 4-7 FT), 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 PF (2 from diving polar bears), 6 angry big guy scowls.
72-61 MSU.
Ridiculously excited to be there tonight
And we’d better win. I hate those guys.
PP-TPW.
The Only Colors
Bo knows slow
The myth that Wisconsin wins without talent is, IMHO, because Ryan’s system makes even talented players look like slow-footed goons. They’re annually one of the slowest-paced teams in the country (332 in adjusted tempo so far this year, 334 last year, 318 the year before per Pomeroy) and the cornerstone of their offensive success is their high-flying, crowd pleasing not turning-the-ball-over. I’m not saying it doesn’t work — far from it. Ryan’s Big Ten winning percentage speaks for itself. It’s just that it’s about as much fun to watch as a root canal. The amazing thing is that he can still reel in the Devin Harrises and Alonzo Tuckers while playing a sub-60 possession per game system. It is, after all, possible to play good defense at a fast tempo (thank you, Texas – or even Minnesota if it comes to that).
Since Wisconsin is all about them getting more opportunities than you do (if anyone appreciates the virtues of tempo-free, it’s Bo Ryan) I think there are a couple of keys to this game. Number one, eliminate the unforced turnovers. Both of Wisconsin’s. losses this year (to Gonzaga and Wisconsin Green Bay) came in different styles of game, but both opponents actually won the turnover battle. Number two, as others have pointed out, is to be competitive in the paint. The swing offense is all about getting the ball down low, either to post players or cutters, for easy looks or fouls. Finally, make foul shots. Wisconsin generally makes you earn any victory at the line. Gonzaga went 21-25 in their win and Wisconsin-Green Bay 23-30.
by Con-T on Jan 6, 2010 1:42 PM CST via mobile reply actions
They are slow
but so was Georgetown a couple years ago and they were fun to watch. We may play faster but I don’t really I enjoy watching us turn in over on nearly 1 of every 4 possessions in big games., so I guess enjoyment is in the eye of the beholder.
by TheCrestedHelm on Jan 6, 2010 3:33 PM CST up reply actions
Don't jump to conclusions
Just as I DID say that fast pace doesn’t have to mean bad defense, I DIDN’T say that slow pace has to mean bad offense. I enjoy watching gifted athletes diplay their skills and athleticism on the court. Wisconsin does not come first to mind as a program that provides these viewing opportunities.
by Con-T on Jan 6, 2010 4:26 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Twitter News
Trey Zeigler will be at Breslin tonight.
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Jan 6, 2010 1:46 PM CST reply actions
TZ
I’m sure lots of recruits come to lots of games but having Zeigler around as much as possible should be a good thing.
Honestly, a few months ago, I would have bet large chunks of change on Zeigler to CMU. However, Izzo thinks he has a shot, so does JB, and Duke is getting involved late. I can’t imagine TZ and his family would be pulling all those legs if they were almost positive that he’s staying home to play for his father. I’d still bet CMU but bet lower.
The only question is
if TZ does commit, where does the scholarship come from? The two most likely candidates are Lucas’ (leaves early) or Herzog (graduation, he has four years in).
That's the big question
But apparently Izzo believes TZ committing and someone leaving are both likely enough to continue the pursuit. Who knows what lurks in the mind of Izzo!
Oades' Big 10
Nice reference…..bought a few kegs there back in my day.
by RickTheBloggerMartel on Jan 6, 2010 4:08 PM CST reply actions
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