MSU #7 in the Initial BCS Standings
by LVS on Oct 17, 2010 8:17 PM CDT
in Michigan State Spartans Football
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PrintPrologue: as co-proprietor of a blog that tries to be intellectually honest with all things statistical, I'd be remiss not to emphasize that the BCS rating system truly is a travishamockery, as exposed by Dan Wetzel et. al. here. Nonetheless, it's the system we have to live with, and so on we go . . .
Michigan State is ranked seventh in the initial BCS standings. The six teams ahead of MSU, in order: Oklahoma, Oregon, Boise State, Auburn, TCU, and LSU. MSU is ranked higher than any other Big Ten team; at the moment, Ohio State is #10, Wisconsin is #13, and Iowa is #15. Auburn and LSU play this Saturday, so at least one of the teams currently ahead of MSU is nearly guaranteed to drop in next week's rankings.
In recent years, there's been no need for MSU fans to pay close attention to the BCS rankings, so to briefly review the rankings system: 1/3rd is determined by the Harris Interactive Poll, 1/3rd is determined by the Coaches Poll, and 1/3rd is determined by the average of six different computer rankings, with each team's highest and lowest rankings dropped. A full explanation is here; MSU's rankings in each poll are below:
| Poll |
MSU Ranking |
| Harris Interactive | 8 |
| Coaches Poll | 8 |
| Wolfe Rankings | 4 |
| Colley Matrix | 4 |
| Sagarin Ratings | 3 |
| Anderson Rankings | 4 |
| Billingsley Report | 12 |
| Massey Ratings | 3 |
Colley, Anderson, and Massey haven't yet released their Week 7 ratings. Nonetheless, it's probably safe to say that the Billingsley rating was MSU's lowest and was thrown out. Updated with the new Colley, Anderson, and Massey ratings. So the Billingsley rating and one of Sagarin/Massey was thrown out for MSU.
On a personal note: it's still very strange and surreal having MSU play such a large role in the national dialogue. Likewise, I knew that the Spartan head logo would show up at some point during the BCS rankings show, but actually seeing it on my screen was still jarring -- in the best possible way, of course. Each passing week presents a new chance for MSU to prove to a skeptical public that it belongs; and given MSU's remaining schedule, the opportunity is certainly there for MSU to play a large role in the national championship picture. Yes, it seems unreal to type that, but this has the possibility to be a very, very special year.
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Michigan State
could really benefit from Notre Dame, WMU, and Illinois all winning out.
Michigan couldn’t hurt, and Wisconsin finishing strong would be great too
Iowa upending Ohio State would be nice too
A win by a team we do play over a team we don’t is always good.
Rooting interest next week RE Iowa vs. Wisconsin
Here’s the deal. If Wisconsin wins, then MSU can actually lose to Iowa (while winning every other game) and still capture a share of the Big Ten title and the Rose Bowl slot. This would occur because MSU would own a critical head to head over Wisconsin, while Iowa will be knocked out of a tiebreaker process because of their OOC loss.
On the other hand, MSU is actually in the conversation for making the BCS Championship game. And in that case, perhaps you want to root for Iowa. After all, the polls are subjective and based on what have you done for me lately. So UW getting higher ranked doesn’t help as much as Iowa getting a bump before going down to us.
As for as the rest of the Big Ten? I think in general you root for teams that you haven’t played against yet. And I have no ill will for OSU, but they’re off schedule and so rooting against them every week can only help our SOS. Also root against Indiana for the same reason, and also because (as Jim Delaney can attest) we really hate IU.
Es gibt keine Freude wie Schadenfreude
Wisconsin-Iowa
IMO winning at least a share of the Big Ten title is the first priority, so I say, “On, Wisconsin.”
If we actually run the table, I think getting selected to play in the NC game will hinge largely on factors outside our control. And a win over a Wisconsin team that’s undefeated against everyone would but us would look pretty good on paper (although I agree with your theory on beating a highly-ranked Iowa being a bigger boost with poll voters).
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Oct 17, 2010 8:40 PM CDT up reply actions
NC Race
Note that MSU only has one top-25 opponent remaining, while Oklahoma/Auburn/LSU/Alabama all have 3+ top-25 foes remaining. Again, to me, the Big Ten title is priority #1 and #2.
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Oct 18, 2010 7:42 AM CDT up reply actions
I'd say "on Wisconsin" too, except for one thing
If they beat Iowa there’s not another L on their schedule, meaning that if we lose to Iowa, we have no margin for error. Iowa still has to play them, us, and OSU (they have the toughest remaining schedule). I think Iowa is pretty good this year but I don’t see them winning all three of those games. I guess on balance it would be better if Iowa lost to Wisconsin but I wouldn’t complain about Wisconsin picking up L number 2 either.
by TheCrestedHelm on Oct 18, 2010 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, but in the scenario we lose to Iowa
then we definitely want Iowa to have a loss, no?
If we lose two games, we’re done as far as the Big Ten race goes.
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Oct 18, 2010 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions
I was thinking about it
as I was walking across the Red Ceder. If Wisconsin wins, then we’re only wins against PSU, Purdue, Northwestern and Minnesota away. We’d have to lose twice for UW to make it to the Rose Bowl. Iowa currently has to win out against us, Wisconsin and Ohio State.
The Rose Bowl is looking very likely if this team is as good as it has shown in the last three weeks.
Es gibt keine Freude wie Schadenfreude
Son of a gun
I forgot that this situation also calls for a loss of OSU to Iowa. Which is certainly possible, but not a sure thing.
So as stated before, root against OSU and for UW and the Rose Bowl will be a quantum leap closer.
Es gibt keine Freude wie Schadenfreude
Hate to say it...
but a win over OSU by Michigan would really help our cause. And it would ensure at least another couple years of RichRod running that program into the ground.
Even in my best case scenario coming into this season
I couldn’t imagine showing up at 7th in the 1st BCS standings ahead of teams like Alabama and OSU. It’s a good time to be a Spartan fan.
Spartan Matrix
You know at the end of “Matrix Reloaded” when Neo meets the Architect and he explains the different iterations of the Matrix that had come before? I feel like right now, with the trajectories of the football and basketball teams, we’re in some special version of the Matrix that was designed specifically to keep Spartan fans plugged in. And like Cypher in the first movie, if I had a choice, I’d choose the Matrix.
Am I a bad Spartan Fan?
I’ll start off by saying that I’m thrilled, like most Spartan fans, and wish the team all the success in the world.
That being said, I don’t think we are the number 1 or 2 team in the country and I think playing in the NC game would result in a Florida over OSU style embarrasing loss. I’d almost rather take the one conference loss to Iowa and go to a bowl game and win. The single loss to a ranked opponent on the road can’t hurt that much in the rankings, and a January 1 bowl win would still leave us in the top ten when the season is over.
Ideal outcome
Go undefeated, get excluded from NC game, go play in Rose Bowl against non-BCS-conference team.
Bowl game becomes more winnable + we get to have chips on our shoulders for rest of our lives about getting screwed out of a national title.
(This is 50% tongue in cheek, 50% not.)
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Oct 18, 2010 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions
Agree...
…completely and utterly, especially with the percentages.
by witless chum on Oct 18, 2010 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions
Courage.
I think it is better to go undefeated regular season and lose in the MNC game, than to lose earlier and win a lower tier bowl. Making it to the MNC game would be totally worth it, for respectability and recruiting value, among other things.
Or..
It could end up more like the 2003 Championship game when a seemingly overmatched OSU upset the Miami juggernaut.
I understand the concern, obviously getting blown out in a BCS bowl would do a little damage to the credibility of the team and conference, but not enough to counteract the positives of playing there would bring.
Besides, while I suppose I agree that we might not be the 1st or 2nd best team in the country, I don’t see a juggernaut out there that we can’t match up with. Bama looked like one and then got beat by a South Carolina team that just lost to Kentucky.
So, no, let’s not worry about a potentially tough matchup in a BCS game just yet. Just keep winning.
by trivialstuff16 on Oct 18, 2010 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions
And OSU's D in 2003 was coached by...
…oh yeah, our head coach.
by Ducking Delvon on Oct 18, 2010 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Help
Can someone link me to some type of respectable strength of schedule rankings?
Am I crazy to think that losing a NCG
Is even better than winning the Rose Bowl? I can’t imagine the excitement of just getting to see our team play on THE biggest stage in college sports.
First things first...
A potential NC game is a long way off, and given the nature of the polls and the weight they carry in the BCS system I have a hard time imagining that we’ll climb over all the teams we need to to get there.
In the shorter term though… ball hawking secondary or not, that was one of the most anemic 20 point wins over an FBS team that I can ever remember. I am substantially more concerned about going to Iowa now that I was last week.
I would have to agree
This whole line of thinking is making me nervous. Let’s just beat Northwestern.
by trivialstuff16 on Oct 18, 2010 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions
I wouldn't worry so much on that front.
Illinois seems to have a knack for making teams look anemic this year. They slowed Ohio State down just as much as they did you guys. And they beat Penn State by the same margin as Iowa did, only they did it in Beaver Stadium, during Homecoming.
Illinois was a solid win. MSU belongs in the top echelon of the Big Ten this year. That said, I agree that you’re not quite good enough to play poorly and still win. And Iowa of course is no gimme. Good luck, and hope you represent our state well!
by Dan TrueBlue on Oct 18, 2010 7:39 PM CDT up reply actions
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