A Note on Robbie Hummel

Two (countervailing) points:

1) You can argue that Hummel’s PORPAG number is too high as an estimate of the loss to Purdue’s offense, since Purdue has enough depth now that they won’t be replacing him with a “replacement-level” player. (Of course, the absence of his defensive rebounding abilities will hurt some on defense, too.)

2) Dan Hanner’s projection model actually says the loss of Hummel will cost Purdue slightly more than Katz says it will.

I tend to agree with Katz/Hanner here. Hummel is just so darn efficient, and IMO he adds a lot not captured in the numbers (as you note). In particular, I think he keeps the offense in balance with his passing skills, preventing one-on-one play from Johnson and (to a lesser extent) Moore. To take Pomeroy’s thought experiment and tweak it just a bit, I think adding Hummel to this year’s Minnesota team just might make them Final Four-quality.

Still, you’re quite right that Purdue will have more time to adjust to Hummel’s absence this year. And it’s quite possible that Matt Painter can find a new balance on offense with the freshmen now on board and last year’s freshmen now sophomores.

If you adjust Purdue’s numbers for Hummel not playing this year, they drop down near Butler on this scatterplot:

Katz has Butler at #18. Gary Parrish says #19. Jeff Goodman says #23.

So somewhere between #15 and #25 seems reasonable.

Nice read.

More from Hanner on this topic.

My feelings on Purdue have been noted before but seriously:

There’s no question that the season-ending injury to Robbie Hummel is a disaster for college basketball.

I’m not quite sure that anybody but Purdue/fans/alums really cares about this injury anymore than they cared about Kalin Lucas’s injury in the tourney last year or say Kenyon Martin’s in 2000, etc. Injuries are part of the game. You always want to beat the best, at their best, but all teams, schools etc. deal with injuries on a regular basis.

Purdue has three guys who acted unselfishly and returned for their senior season to win a title(s), for that they should be commended, but injuries happen. This isn’t the first time for Hummel, so it’s not a “freak” thing but an instance of depending on a player who does not have the body to withstand major college athletics. It’s akin to us “depending” on Delvon Roe then acting shocked if he suffers a season ending injury. He was injured when he started his career here and has been injured every season (playing gamely, I might add!) he has been here.

Second: As far as (as noted on Hammer and Rails) Hummel being their best player: Is that because the team he plays for is in Indiana and (I really hesitate to say this because I haven’t seen anything to suggest that H&R or TOC think this) he’s white? Statistical analysis above points to him as the THIRD best player on Purdue. Everything I’ve seen points me to Moore and Johnson being potential NBA regulars. Hummel…might get a shot. Moore and Johnson came back. Hummel injured or not wasn’t a legitimate early draft candidate.

Last: Are my eyes deceiving me? Is KJ, who I have always pictured as a Bill James disciple acknowledging “intangibles”? That Hummel may provide more than “just” his stats to the team. That something as ethereal as “chemistry” actually exists?

But that says nothing of his defense as well. He’s a phenomenal rebounder, which that alone is worth a certain amount of points. Kick in ability to guard in there as well, and Hummel’s PORPAG, in my opinion, is probably at least 5-8 PPG – I think he’s that important defensively to what Purdue does.

Dan Henner just had a nice retort to Pomeroy’s article and I agree with Katz/Henner, here.

Here.

I didn’t realize how good Temple was last year.

I defer to the gentlemen who run this site who are. I think the Hummel loss hurts Purdue most on the boards-they aren’t a good rebounding team anyway, and losing him and Kramer hurts them badly in that area. He’s also basically a point forward, they facilitate a lot of the offense through him. They now are tasked with getting the ball to two stars without the help of a strong offensive point guard (Jackson is often a spectator on offense). And without Hummel, Johnson spent much of his time wandering the perimeter jacking 18 footers.

As Izzo has said, there are probably 8-10 teams who can win the national championship. I think it’s too much to expect of Purdue to be one of those ten without Hummel. They have to remake themselves, and while they have a season to grow into it, they are pretty limited in some key areas.

One defensively, one offensively.