Preview: Michigan State vs. Iowa
by Pete Rossman on Oct 29, 2010 11:40 AM CDT
in Michigan State Spartans Football
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PrintIn retrospect, the times I've proclaimed a particular Michigan State football game to be the "most important" have been hyperbole. This is definitely the most important game in the past decade, and quite possibly as important since the 1988 Rose Bowl. Although the Penn State game still looks a bit daunting, the Iowa Hawkeyes and Nile Kinnick Stadium present the most significant challenge to an undefeated regular season. I've blocked out the memories of last season's game, but if you're a masochist, you can revisit the ending here.
The Hawkeyes haven't had the magical year they had in 2009, but Iowa has still had a very nice season. Their two losses have been against Arizona on the road - it's always bad when Big Ten teams play nonconference games in the Pacific time zone - and a one-point loss to Wisconsin last week, where Kirk Ferentz got in touch with his inner Les Miles at game's end. Iowa's identity this year has been flipped - the offense is now the stronger unit and the defense, while still strong, has weaknesses that can be exploited. After the jump, a look at how State will attack the Hawkeyes.
When Michigan State is on offense...
The offensive line will be doing their darndest to ward off a statistically diminshed, but still fearsome Hawkeye defensive line. I don't need to tell you Adrian Clayborn is dangerous, but his statistics have not backed up that statement as he only has six tackles for losses and two and a half sacks. Regardless, I wouldn't back off the double teams just because his numbers are a bit lacking, as he is still very capable of making State's offensive tackles look like statues. As a whole, the Hawkeye front four is not putting up the same numbers as they were last year. As a whole, the Iowa defense ranks 84th in the FBS with 5.14 tackles for loss per game and 72nd in sacks with 1.71 sacks per game.
This lack in defensive disruption might be attributed to a lack of depth in the linebacker unit. Our friends at Black Heart Gold Pants lamented the depth at linebacker in Iowa's loss to Wisconsin last week, and although most of those injured in the Wisconsin game will be back this week, they probably won't be 100%. If ever there was a time to take advantage of Charlie Gantt and five-yard slants and hitches it's now, because Tyler Jimmerjammin Sash still leads a Hawkeye back four that is 20th in the FBS with 10 passes intercepted this season. Although Sash has only one of these picks he ranks second on the team in tackles with 45. As a whole the Hawkeye defense is still a solid unit, but not the Galactus, Devourer of Offenses edition it was in 2009.
How do the Spartans attack this offense? I'm guessing in the same way most Don Treadwell-run offenses have done at Michigan State - try to establish the run first. This strategy might not be effective considering how iffy the offensive line performance has been in the past two weeks, but in the off-chance it works look for a 60-40 run-pass ratio throughout the game. If the run game isn't established, expect the run-pass ratio to flip-flop over to 60% pass with Cousins attacking the middle of the Iowa defense much like Notre Dame attacked MSU's.
When Michigan State is on defense...
They will have a heck of a time dealing with Ricky Stanzi, version 2.0. While the 1.0 version was interception-prone and had accuracy issues, today's model has stomped out those bugs. Stanzi ranks 2nd among starting BCS quarterbacks in passing efficiency, going 124-182 (68.13% completion rate) so far for 1,732 yards, 16 touchdowns and two interceptions. Stanzi is as close a clone to Kirk Cousins as Michigan State will see this year - he's a quarterback who can throw a deep ball accurately, he rarely makes bad decisions, but not particularly mobile. Truth be told, the biggest difference between the word associated with each's personality; Cousins's is "Faith", while Stanzi's is "AMURICA!!!" Stanzi's top two receivers are dangerous as well. Derrell Johnson-Koulianos (DJK) has averaged 16.6 yards per catch on his team-leading 30 receptions for eight touchdowns. Marvin McNutt is the other deep threat for the Hawkeyes, and I don't need to tell you how explosive McNutt can be.
In what's becoming scarily routine for the Hawkeye running game, Crazy Old Testament ACL-hating God made an appearance this season, smiting back-up Jewel Hampton in the Arizona loss. This means that Iowa has only one running back that could be considered a threat as of now, but he's a solid one. Adam Robinson has performed very well on the season and in the past two games as well; he ran for 143 yards on 31 carries against Michigan, and for 114 yards on 23 carries against Wisconsin. While not a home run threat, he's the kind of consistent back that can continually pick up 4-5 yards on first down and make life miserable for the Spartan defense when third and very short eventually comes up. As Robinson goes, so goes the Hawkeye rushing attack - besides Stanzi, he's the player Iowa can least afford to lose right now.
How does Michigan State find a way to stop the Hawkeyes? If the Spartans focus on stopping the run Stanzi could pick the back seven apart all day, and if they focus on stopping the pass Robinson could pull the Hawkeyes down the field five yards at a time. Since the Hawkeyes are well-balanced, I'd expect Pat Narduzzi to go with the usual defensive game plan - hard against the run and the usual bend-but-not-break mentality against the pass. It worked against Wisconsin, but this time could be worse, I don't think Stanzi will look as bad as Scott Tolzien looked that game.
As for Iowa's special teams...
They're decent enough in the Big Ten this year. Trent Mossbrucker was the kicker for the first three games, but was shelved in favor of true freshman Michael Meyer. Meyer hass been 4-5 on field goals so far this season with a long of 40, and 17-of-18 on extra points. Ryan Donahue is one of the best punters in the nation; he ranks 12th in the FBS averaging 45.8 yards a kick. He has had one blocked however, so if you're looking for a ray of hope, that's it. DJK has had 12 of 14 kick returns for the Hawkeyes, and he's averaged 26.5 yards a return with a long of 40. Nothing to see here. Punt returner Colin Sandoval averages 9 yards a return, and deserves this sentence and this sentence only.
Final Thoughts and Prediction
I'm still not sold on Michigan State having an easy route to 12-0 if they win this game - the Spartans need to prevail in Happy Valley at least once in my lifetime before I feel confident with a State victory there - but a Spartan victory tomorrow would clear the biggest obstacle remaining. I'm going to spare you the platitudes here of "the tougher team will win" and "this game is going to be a dogfight". The Iowa-Michigan State tilt was the most brutal game in terms of physicality each team played last season; I see no reason why this game will be any different. It'll be a close game throughout, but Stanzi has the best deep ball Michigan State's seen all season, and I think that sadly makes the difference. Please let this be a reverse jinx.
FINAL SCORE: IOWA 30, MICHIGAN STATE 20
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This game is so evenly matched
I expect it to be along the lines of last year’s game…down to the wire. Iowa has been underachieving and Iowa fans assumed it was only a matter of time before they snapped out of their funk and took off. Well, that moment has yet to happen and some key injuries have popped up and special teams has been a nightmare in key moments and voila, Iowa looks very beatable and is hard to figure out.
I don’t think that changes this Saturday. Iowa will do some very impressive things, some unimpressive things, and some mind-numbingly stupid things. If Michigan State can match Iowa’s intensity and not have turnovers they can certainly win this game. Iowa is a cornered dog and will likely come out with more emotion than they have all year (where has that been???) but that usually only lasts for a quarter, at most.
The wildcard to me will be Farentz’s mindset going into this game. If he is going to trot a business as usual game plan then I think Michigan State wins and maybe by double digits. On the other hand, if Iowa dusts off some offensive and defensive plays and gets decent, not great, decent special teams play then Iowa could be in shape to win.
I don’t think it would be an understatement to say that it would be a disaster for Feretz to lose back-to-back home games he is sizeably favored in, and to lose to Michigan State at home for the first time since the 80s. Iowa City will not be a great place for him to be.
Should be fun!
"I wish you luck with a capital 'F'" - The Real Elvis.
X factor
Will be who these teams played last week. Our guys played a finesse not physical team in Northwestern. Iowa play a physical, drag out, knock down brawl against Wisconsin.
Schadenfreude ist die schoenste Freude
Except Iowa wasn't "beaten up" by Wisco
but rather shot themselves in the foot with (uncharacteristically) silly mistakes. They’ll be ready. So will Sparty. Round Two, here we come.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Oct 30, 2010 3:37 AM CDT up reply actions
We actually beat them up
they are missing like 5 starters now after that game.
"I wish you luck with a capital 'F'" - The Real Elvis.
Should be a great game
The key to me will be our play on 3rd down both offensively and defensively. Against Wisconsin and Michigan we played very well on 3rd down. Those games just happened to be our two most complete games IMO. However, every other game this season we have not done well on 3rd downs.
The fact that we’ve been able to win all our games despite our lack of success on 3rd downs is pretty amazing. I think Iowa is too good of a team for us to beat if we don’t play well on 3rd downs.
I like details...
Oh man I cannot wait for this game Saturday night! Yes I said Saturday night – due to my kid’s softball tournament, I’m gonna have to DVR this one and watch it after she goes to bed. Will have to turn my phone off all evening to avoid the texts from friends.
My prediction -
DJK gets loose behind Dennard for a long TD early in the game to put Iowa ahead 7-0. The Iowa D is amped up and running on emotion, and stops MSU on our first 2 drives.
MSU D plays tough and holds Iowa through the rest of the 1Q, and State finally puts a drive together to get on the board with a FG early in the 2nd Q (7-3 Iowa).
Stanzi marches Iowa down the field on their next possession, but has a ball tipped at the line and intercepted in Spartan territory.
The running game finally gets going, and the Spartans capitalize on the turnover with a Baker TD run. (10-7 MSU)
Iowa gets a big run from Robinson, but he’s caught at the 10 yard line, and the Spartan D limits Iowa to a FG (10-10)
MSU gets a big kick return from Caper, and begin their drive near midfield. Cousins hits Linthicum on a play action pass for a TD (17-10 MSU at the half).
Iowa comes out firing in the 2nd half, and Stanzi marches them down the field to tie the game with a Robinson TD.
MSU answers with a FG (20-17 MSU), and then forces a 3 and out on Iowa’s next possession. MSU blocks the punt and sets up State with a short field. Cousins hits BJ on the first play for a TD, and MSU takes a commanding 27-17 lead into the 4th Q.
On the next possession, Stanzi underthrows a deep sideline route and it’s picked off by Dennard. With the crowd getting quieter, MSU gets stopped on 2 straight running plays, and Cousins throws a INT on 3rd down. Iowa converts with a Stanzi TD pass to the tight end on 3rd & goal. (27-24 MSU)
MSU can’t do anything on their next drive against a suddenly revived Iowa D and crowd, but a Greg Jones sack kills Iowa’s next drive.
With 7 minutes left, MSU gets the ball back looking to drive for the clinching score. The O-Line mans up and open up holes for Baker down the field, and he gets in the endzone with under 2 minutes left.
Final Score: MSU 34 Iowa 24
Our running game is solid, but not spectacular, as Baker goes for 110 w/ 2 TDs, Cousins 265, 2TDs, 1 INT
The D puts good pressure on Stanzi all night: 3 sacks, 2 INTs, several pressures/hits.
Robinson goes for 115 and a TD, but 60 of those yards come on 1 run, and he’s mostly bottled up the rest of the game.
Are you sure?
If you’re sure this is going to be how it plays out, I’ll take the afternoon off (1:30 game time here in the Mountain Time Zone) and go play 18. If you can’t guarantee this, I’ll have to watch. Please advise.
83!!
Hell, if the best I can do is an 83 I might as well stay home and watch the game.
And the guy in Section 123, Row 35, Seat 12....
spills mustard from a bratwurst onto his shirt at the 3:32 mark of the 3rd quarter.
Dude, that's totally off.
How can you make such lousy predictions?
Clearly, it’s ketchup. He spills it on his girlfriend in Section 118, Row 24, seat 16. He does it because Mark Dell catches a HUGE pass from Kirk Cousins at the end of the first quarter.
by ShawHall2006 on Oct 29, 2010 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions
I lived there '06-'07
For whatever reason, I always thought Shaw’s caf food was a lot worse compared to some of the other dorms.
Maybe it was just because I had lived in Brody the prior year, and sorely missed Lafayette Square. :P
by ShawHall2006 on Oct 29, 2010 6:22 PM CDT up reply actions
If I put together a list at the beginning of the year...
…with the title, “In order for us to do great things this year we’ll have to:”
Beat a ranked Wisconsin. Check.
Win the week after beating a ranked team. Check.
Beat UM for the 3 times in a row for the first time since the 60’s. Check.
Win after beating a ranked team AGAIN. Check.
Win Homecoming against an overmatched Illini squad (see 9/30/2006). Check
Win a trap game against a tough opponent while anticipating the biggest game for MSU in 25 years (honestly could say 44 years). Check
Win in Iowa City for the 1st time in 21 years.
Win in Happy Valley for the first time in 45 years.
If the season plays out how we would like, we’ll definitely have earned any accolades we receive.
You forgot one thing we'll need to check off...
Win on January 10th.
My prediction:
But first, a true story.
Yesterday, I was looking at the Sagarin ranking data.
I noticed that even though Sagarin PREDICTOR shows Iowa as a 6-point favorite, there is a huge difference between MSU’s ELO_CHESS (non-margin aware) and PREDICTOR (margin-aware) ratings. Of the top 25 Sagarin teams, MSU has the greatest discrepancy between ELO_CHESS and PREDICTOR. (Wisconsin, the team that upset Iowa last week, has the second largest. And even despite last week’s result, PREDICTOR currently predicts Iowa winning vs Wisconsin by 7.5.)
As it turns out, the ELO_CHESS difference between MSU and Iowa is MSU +9.85.
I couldn’t get my head around that….until this wierd thought suddenly popped into my mind: What if the transitive properties are true? In other words, MSU > Wisconsin, and Wisconsin > Iowa, so MSU >> Iowa?
Suddenly, I felt calm and confident.
This week’s emotional lift comes from the reinstatement of Chris L. Rucker, and the bunker mentality of the team in enduring criticism from those “not in the know”, for that decision. This team will pull together, not fall apart, as a result. I believe this team will beat Iowa, not because of any fluke or luck or because Dantonio wants to win at all costs, but because they trust their coaches, they trust each other, they trust themselves. They are a team.
And this team is good enough to beat Iowa by 10.
MSU, 27-17.
Heres hoping!
I actually have a weir feeling that this game isn’t going to be very close. Either our offense finally cracks and we end up on the wrong side of the TO differential (and pay for it this time – probably dropping to #20 in the polls and endure a week of SOS comments) or it doesn’t and we win comfortably. Either way I feel like the margin is going to be 10+
I agree with you about this week helping to galvanize the team some
I’m tired of talking about CLR, but I agree that it can bring the team together around their coach. I don’t think it will serve as a rah-rah type moment. But I do think it helps them circle the wagons and come out with a little extra focus.
I have been telling my friends that this is another game between relatively evenly matched teams. Just like ND, UM, Wisconsin. In all of those games when key moments came up, this team made plays to win those games. And I believe the confidence this team has playing in big moments comes directly from the coaching staff. He trusted them against ND, Treadwell trusted them on 4th down against Wisconsin, he trusted them again against NW.
I think that confidence is contagious. We see it all the time in the NCAA tournament when our basketball teams find ways to win close game. This team is in the same mold. When they have had to make a play, they have made it.
I think that continues 27-24 MSU.
by trivialstuff16 on Oct 29, 2010 6:39 PM CDT up reply actions
I won't go as far as to say Iowa wins
but they’ll have no problem topping 20. I’ll have no problem coming back here to say otherwise if they don’t (they will).
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Oct 30, 2010 3:39 AM CDT up reply actions
yep, MSU is good enough to win this game
and it should be very close. My biggest concern is that Iowa has the advantage at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Both teams will be able to control the running game, but I’m not convinced that our pass rush is consistent enough to get to Stanzi and give him happy feet back there. If they can’t get to him, he’ll pick us apart. I think it’s pretty well understood Iowa has an advantage with their d-line.
We have advantages at the skill positions (even without KM) and on special teams, so if we can battle to a draw at the line of scrimmage, I think our chances improve considerably.
Can’t wait for 2:30!
by Mark in Chicago on Oct 30, 2010 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions
I
I wont say I am up to speed on all my Big 10 history, but there is no question in my mind that this is the biggest regular season game for MSU since they hosted Indiana in November, 1987. Given the higher national, BCS stakes we have tomorrow, you could make a case that it surpasses that and only the 1966 game with ND can beat it.
I think MSU covers this number. We’ll see if the magic lasts another day.
As a fanbase, y’all have waited a long time for a season like this and a moment like tomorrow. I truly hope it works out for you.
Go Green, Go White
www.justcoverblog.com
Thank you, sir
Very classy, as always. You’re about where I am. I’d take us to cover, but I think we probably need a couple breaks to win: a big special teams play would be fantastic. Also: Cousins needs to outplay Stanzi, which is no small task but is well within the realm of the possible.
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Oct 29, 2010 10:10 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
How the game will end . . .
Iowa runs a JAILBREAK screen to Rucker’s side to punch in the karmically correct game winner in the final minutes.
Book it.
8 days in jail
plus an additional week and a half not practicing or playing against Illinois on homecoming.
Schadenfreude ist die schoenste Freude
I love the all caps
to make sure we all notice how clever the wordplay is…
by trivialstuff16 on Oct 29, 2010 6:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Karmically speaking Dantonios good karma he has coming from his heart attack and blood clot still outweighs CLR’s bad for a DUI. So we’re still ok
by GreenGiant77 on Oct 29, 2010 8:59 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Spartans by 10.
MSU totally dominated Wisconsin. I have no reason to think it wont be the same tomorrow. Good old smashmouth football, Big Ten style, played the way the game should be played…..pre spread. I look forward to a hard fought, yet sound victory over a worthy opponent. As long as we don’t take stupid penalties ( personal fouls, false starts) the final score……..MSU 27. IOWA 17
by GreenGiant77 on Oct 29, 2010 8:57 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Spartans by 10.
MSU totally dominated Wisconsin. I have no reason to think it wont be the same tomorrow. Good old smashmouth football, Big Ten style, played the way the game should be played…..pre spread. I look forward to a hard fought, yet sound victory over a worthy opponent. As long as we don’t take stupid penalties ( personal fouls, false starts) the final score……..MSU 27. IOWA 17
by GreenGiant77 on Oct 29, 2010 8:57 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
I am starting to feel confident
We kill teams in the second half, a combination of good coaching adjustments and conditioning. This team has been clutch so far, which is a mark of a championship team.
We beat Wisconsin by 10, they lost by 1.
We beat Michigan by 17, they beat them by 10.
Both played UW at home, both at Michigan. I honestly think, win or lose, we are the better team. I think we overcome the fact that it’s the first game outside of a state that touches a great lake and beat Iowa convincingly.
Go green
Schadenfreude ist die schoenste Freude
Seer, I typically love reading your posts as they are insightful and well-written
but the we beat team X by Y and they lost/won by Z is flat-out stupid. I guess Baylor is licking their chops at the chance to murder Texas this weekend since Iowa State beat UT by 7 and the Cyclones lost to KSU by 7 and Baylor beat beat KSU by 5 so…wait, what were we talking about? The transitive property doesn’t work in sports; It’s always about match-ups. Perhaps MSU matches up favorably against Iowa (I happen to think these teams are near mirror images of one another), but results against other teams is hardly empirical evidence. If it were then Purdue would have been world-beaters last year.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Oct 30, 2010 3:51 AM CDT up reply actions
It's not sound logic
but unlike Basketball, Football just doesn’t give enough data points to be sure of anything by numbers. So you’ve got to scrape by with what you have, and in this case both teams played Wisconsin and Michigan in similar circumstances.
Mostly, I’m trying to convince myself that it’s not an accident that MSU is 8-0.
Schadenfreude ist die schoenste Freude
Ha!
Now that’s the kind of post I’m used to from you.
Good luck today (insofar as good luck does not = Sparty win). May the best team win, I’m off to work.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Oct 30, 2010 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions
MSU 15-13
Last-second TD on a throwback, Nichol to Cousins. Our #7 will throw for 6.
More seriously, I’m thinking this comes down to special teams. And Iowa’s disasters in that area are well known. MSU 34-27.
That's the most logical breakdown and prediction I've seen.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Oct 30, 2010 3:52 AM CDT up reply actions
Trick-or-Treat
I got a feeling our first offensive play is going to be a flea flicker. We need to come out of the gate swinging!
MSU 31 – Iowa 27
by Prime Time on Oct 30, 2010 12:28 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
I think MSU picks up an additional 7-8 points vs. expectation in this game,
owing to their breaking out the new orange uniforms, with the block-stamped five-digit numbers. I’m sure you’ll win by a couple of TDs.
Mr. Boh Knows ...
Hah hah hah
If only your erudition and quick wit could do anything to change the butt-whipping your team is going to take today. I guess you’ll have to endure it in your smoking jacket and slippers as best you can. Might I suggest a visit to the Field of Dreams? I’ve heard that place is mighty uplifting.
by heresjohnny on Oct 30, 2010 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions
Umm, or not.
But boy, that smack-talking went well before the team got eviscerated on the field. I was wondering where Jigsaw was standing during the whole fourth quarter.
MSU 35-21.
This is a perfect game for LeVeon Bell. Underachieving front four, poor linebacker play behind them, missed gaps, seeya. I think that MSU will be able to pound the rock and Iowa won’t- that’s the difference in the game right there. I don’t know if Key will be able to play much and that worries me, but just put Bennie Fowler in there and go on with life.
For Iowa, only having Robinson at tailback isn’t good. Narduzzi will set up a gameplan that chokes off their running game progressively, and then turn his attention to the passing game, which will put up good numbers.
Finally, I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see a flea-flicker the first time MSU nears midfield. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see them try and catch Iowa napping and do a surprise onside kick or something. You know, other things they haven’t pulled out of their bag of tricks yet.
Pound, Green, Pound.
great point
Narduzzi and Treadwell have almost certainly installed some sort of package that we’ve never seen on each side of the ball for this game and those plays could have a huge impact.
by Mark in Chicago on Oct 30, 2010 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions
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