Why You Should Definitely Start Panicking, In Handy Scatterplot Format
While nothing about this MSU basketball team is really clicking right now, the major problems clearly lie more on offense than on defense. KenPom still has MSU as the 15th best defensive team in the country. The team is holding opponents to 41.2% shooting inside the arc and shows signs of righting the ship on the defensive glass. In terms of individual game performances, Duke is the only opponent to have hit the 110 mark in offensive efficiency, while MSU has held six opponents (including South Carolina and Texas) below the 100 mark.
And all those numbers have to be viewed in the context of the large number of easy transition baskets MSU has conceded due to offensive ineptitude, rather than defensive breakdowns. That context makes the defensive 2-point percentage figure all the more remarkable. (Admittedly, some of Texas' easy baskets last night were the result of a failure to hustle back on defense by MSU, but that's been the exception, not the rule.)
On offense, meanwhile, MSU has dropped all the way to #45 in adjusted efficiency. The team's turnover percentage ranks 259th in the country. Only 3-point shooting, which went missing last night, has kept the team afloat on the offensive end. The team has yet to hit the 110 mark in offensive efficiency against a quality (top-100) opponent and has now put up two sub-90 clunkers.
Big picture, individual players aren't growing into the specific roles needed to form a coherent and effective offensive unit. To illustrate that assertion, I've scatterplotted MSU's individual tempo-free indicators. Technical stuff and perplexing graphical depiction after the jump.
Offensive rating is a measure of an individual player's efficiency. In its simplest form, it's points produced divided by possessions used. If you want to know more than that, you must read Dean Oliver's Basketball on Paper. Otherwise you'll have to take my word that the formula is about as good as it gets for assessing personal efficiency based on the stats that are recorded.
Values of ORtg fall in the same range as team efficiencies - 100 is about average, higher values are better. Considering that individual stats are often dependent on team interactions, to say that Player A is better than Player B because he has a better offensive rating is a serious misuse of this metric.
A very important aspect of offensive rating is that it must be used in conjunction with the possession usage (%Poss) column to have any value. The average player will use 20% of his team's possessions while he is on the court. The majority of players fall between 15% and 25%. A player that has a high offensive rating and uses a lot of possessions is especially valuable (example: Adam Morrison, 122.8 ORtg, 31.4% possessions used).
To get a sense of how individual offensive performances fit into team performance, the two indicators described above can be plotted against each other. For example, here's last season's MSU player data (numbers pulled from StatSheet):
The midpoint on the vertical axis is set somewhat arbitrarily. Across college basketball, 100 would be average. To get back to a top-20 level of efficiency, MSU would need to be around 110--although the higher minutes and usage rates of the team's stars pull up the average. I went with 105 as a reasonable measure of where the majority of MSU's contributors need to be for the team to perform consistently on offense.
Players in the upper, right-hand quadrant are your stars--guys who can take on a more assertive role in the offense and still turn possessions into points efficiently. MSU had four such performers last season. Players in the upper, left-hand quadrant are efficient role players--Chris Allen and Delvon Roe last season. Players in the lower, right-hand quadrant are, to put it as uncharitably as possible, ball hogs; they use up a lot of possessions without many points to show for it. Players in the lower, left-hand quadrant are guys who are limited and know it.
All in all, last year's team split up the offensive duties the way you want a team to. The guys who took the most assertive roles on offense were the guys able to create offense efficiently. Everybody else stuck to more limited roles, with one player outside and one player inside performing their specific roles very efficiently. And, keep in mind, the 2010 MSU squad only ranked 28th in the country in offensive efficiency over the course of the full season. To become a legitimate national contender this season, MSU needed to improve on last season's performance level, not just maintain it.
Needless to say, that hasn't happened:
Let's move into bulletpoint mode (while trying not repeat too much of what I said in last week's statistical review):
- Kalin Lucas, Draymond Green, and Durrell Summers all remain in the "star" quadrant, but Lucas' efficiency is down as he awaits his past level of explosiveness to return coming off the Achilles' injury and Green's efficiency has suffered some as he's taken on an even larger role in the offense. Relative to last year's baseline, Summers has been adequate.
- No one has stepped up to replace Raymar Morgan as the fourth playmaker. Korie Lucious and (in more limited minutes) Adreian Payne have tried, but neither has performed efficiently.
- I included them for purposes of analytical completeness, but you really have to mentally remove Mike Kebler and Austin Thornton from the scatterplot. Both have dramatically increased their offensive efficiency, but those increases have been entirely the result of scoring outbursts against lower-tier opponents.
- Garrick Sherman is the one MSU player who has clearly met and surpassed expectations this season. He's posted the third-highest offensive rating among non-walk-ons. Unfortunately, his scoring opportunities have been limited to finishes off of set plays and very occasional low-post scoring moves.
- Keith Appling's profile looks pretty good here, with a usage rate approaching 20 percent and a relatively efficient offensive rating. But his numbers have been highly correlated with opponent quality, scoring frequently against lower-tier opponents and struggling against highly-ranked foes.
- Surprisingly, Delvon Roe's usage rate hasn't gone up. But his efficiency has nevertheless gone down.
- In limited minutes, Derrick Nix has been both nonassertive and nonefficient.
As much as I spent a lot of time this past offseason talking about how the team returned 9 of its 11 top players and was adding two potential immediate freshman contributors, we're 12 games into the season and they're aren't really 11 legitimate offensive contributors available. Only 7 of the 11 guys listed above have usage rates above even 15 percent.
Long term, I'm not that worried about the Big Three. Lucas will get back to 100% at some point (although how soon that happens is becoming more of an open question). Green will find the sweet spot in terms of what he can do efficiently on offense given his vast array of basketball skills but somewhat limited physical abilities. While there's certainly room for improvement, Summers has, for the most part, done what he's been expected to do.
The major long-term issue the team faces--and the cause for short-term panicking--is who steps up to support the Big Three in an efficient manner. Sherman should see more touches as the season goes along, but I'm not sure he can consistently score (or find the open man) with his back to the basket. Same deal for Roe. Payne and Nix are even less likely to become legitimate offensive threats for more than one or two possessions at a time.
The best hopes for a fourth offensive playmaker are Lucious--who's done it in flashes but still can't perform consistently from one game to the next--and Appling--who still looks like he has a ways to go against longer, more athletic opponents. And there's a limit to how much you want the team relying on perimeter scoring--as evidenced last night, when the team could hardly get a 3-pointer to drop most of the night.
Talking about a team's lack of "offensive identity" may sound clichéed, but it fits the bill pretty darn well in this case.
If anyone can figure out how to build a coherent offensive attack out of the roster available to him, it's Tom Izzo. But, as Joe Rexrode pointed out (in the course of providing a somewhat more upbeat assessment of things), not every highly-touted Izzo team that's dug an early-season hole has been able to climb back out of it (see: 2004, 2006). Izzo and the players have over a full week now to try to figure things out going into Big Ten play. In the mean time, the rest of us, in my view, don't have much option: Commence panicking.
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all alone
you might be the only person that would describe summers as adequate. Even rexrode has said he needs to be more aggressive, and izzo has said the team as a whole needs to be more aggressive. I beg you to describe adequate. Please. Is it settling for jump shots? I think I’m the only person that isn’t afraid to say, but summers needs to do more if this team is to succeed. He NEEDS to drive to the lane. I csn remember 4 from last night. 2 resulted in fouls and 2 resulter in turnovers. Persoanlly I’ll take a turnover if it also risksa post players fouling you. On top of that. A three foot shot is a lot higher percentage than a 20 foot shot. Adequate is just not the right word. More like underwhelming.
My statement
“Relative to last year’s baseline, Summers has been adequate.”
Implicit in your comments is that Summers has been “underwhelming” relative to some version of him that has never existed. When Summers was carrying the scoring load in last year’s tournament, he did it mainly by hitting perimeter jumpers. In 4 of 5 tournament games, at least half his FGA were 3-pointers.
Summers is making 45% of his 3-pointers, rebounding the ball competently, and avoiding major mistakes on defense. Of course, you want him to be aggressive when the opportunities are there (primarily in transition). But you don’t want him forcing things; 2 TOs in 4 possessions is hardly what this team needs right now.
My point is that, without a more efficient supporting cast, the Big Three will have to force things too much. Generally, that’s going to turn out badly. Saying the team needs to play more aggressively is an oversimplification. Draymond’s problems last night largely stemmed from playing too aggressively.
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Dec 23, 2010 4:48 PM CST up reply actions
thank you.
greens whole game was a mess also. I wouldn’t say it’s from being too agressibe. He just wasn’t there. Unfortunetly, no one elses shot was there either to pick up his miscues.
are you of the camp that thinks ‘a shooter should shoot througha slump’? Persoanlly I am not. I like, when, if you’re throwing up bricks, you start taking it to the hole. This is something raymar did well and summers can’t grasp. Plus it makes the other team make more plays which disrupts their defense a lot more. And can create even more opportunities.
Summers
He has also scored 10+ in every game except Chaminade and he is our leading scorer. I would say he has been adequate if not good
Stats don't lie do they?
I’d be interested in seeing the same scatterplots for OSU, Minny, NWestern and even Michigan who btw look really organized, sharp and engaged right now.
In other words, like a basketball team that wants to win and knows how.
I’ll go vomit now.
Thanks KJ.
Everybody loves Draymond
Last night
I thought about Summer’s dunk over Robinson in the Detroit Final Four. I thought about it, because there isn’t one player I can imagine taking it that strong to the hoop on this team.
Schadenfreude ist die schoenste Freude
Post idea, KJ
KJ,
I would love to see a post examining the loss of Raymar Morgan. It seems like every year the team loses one player who you think won’t be a major impact because of who is waiting in the wings, but I think he is the something that is missing and no one is ready to fill those shoes. Just curious what you think
I've been pouring over the same stats
We’re OK on D. We are not headed in the right direction on O. I think Summers has been OK, Green has been very good, Lucas has a valid excuse, and Sherman has been something of a pleasant surprise, and that is about it for the positives. Hopefully Lucious can continue to put it together – last night’s poor performance may have been due to the ankle sprain, and he was rusty at the beginning of the season.
To me, the fact that we’re not getting more out of Roe is a major disappointment. He’s a junior, and should be contributing more on offense. He’s significantly worse than last year – his rebounding is down, and his effective field goal percentage is off almost 11 points. Even considering the injuries, it’s reasonable to expect him to be as effective as the freshman power forward Texas put on the floor last night. Regression is not what I expected, and he was our best hope to replace Morgan as a post scoring presence. So far, that hasn’t happened. He’s got a ways to go to even get back to last year’s level. I don’t want to be too hard on the guy after the adversity he’s faced, but we really needed him to improve a little bit and instead he appears to have gotten worse.
Roe misses Morgan.
Roe is now drawing more responsibility on D. He has looked better the last three games. He played well against Texas short of his shooting, which is a horrible problem. His offensive confidence appears to be all but gone. He’s pressing.
by rook34 on Dec 23, 2010 10:29 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Until we get a post game
we’ll be subject to the ups and downs of our jump shooting percentage. And the jump shooting becomes more difficult if they don’t have to be concerned about the post. The game has always worked better inside out. I’m seeing some efforts to work on that weakness but we’ve got a long ways to go. One or more of the guys have to be able to be a post threat. I don’t see Green being consistent in the post, not athletic enough to overcome his size. Roe seems to be making strides and maybe he starts putting the ball in the basket but obviously the Texas game shows that isn’t happening yet. Sherman is crafty and I think they should go to him more often, I think the kid could put up 10 most nights.
After the TX game I’m officially concerned. Still time left to fix what ails ya but I sure hope we don’t have to live and die by the jumpshot.
Our guards don't feed the post.
I am more of an eye-test guy than a stat guy (though KJ does an amazing job), so I went to the tape tonight. Sherman, Nix, and Green (on the rare occasion he’s on the low block) are open. Our guards almost never throw it into the post. Sherman is always open and begs for the ball. You can’t have a post game if the only guy who throws it there is Green. I don’t know if Summers has fed the post once.
by rook34 on Dec 23, 2010 10:36 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
agreed
Seems we miss a lot of opportunities to feed the post. If it isn’t open immediately they don’t seem to have as much patience to ball fake or work to get it in there. Of all things Izzo’s teams do well feeding the post with a simple low bounce pass isn’t usually one of the strengths.
I see glimpses that there is some additional emphasis on feeding the post but it’s going to take those post players scoring consistently to give the guards and wings the confidence to drop it in to them.
by Drew Perkins on Dec 24, 2010 8:31 AM CST up reply actions
Jay Bilas said it adequately
I remember a play mid way through the second half where one individual threw up a wild one-on-three layup where Payne trailed and corralled the rebound. He found a guard and proceeded to post up for the entire possession. He had position and the court was spread perfectly, but of course no entry pass was made. Bilas commented, “I don’t know why Payne even bothers to post up. The guards never look to pass it in.” I realize Payne is raw, at best, on offense, but he couldn’t have done any worse than what was already going on. He saved that possession with the rebound and was rewarded with another jump shot from a guard.
by PeterLemonjello on Dec 24, 2010 8:54 AM CST up reply actions
Talking about stats I want to see
I’ve said it over and over, I’d love to see how many of Sherman’s baskets are off of passes from Green. He’s the only one who consistently gets him the ball. I think this is a problem.
Co-sign
Need an MSU version of this:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/luke_winn/12/09/power.rankings/index.html
(But I’m not doing it.)
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Dec 28, 2010 10:25 AM CST up reply actions
Green has assisted on 7 of Sherman’s FG, rest of team 8. Lucas with 3, no one else with more than 1.
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Dec 28, 2010 10:37 AM CST up reply actions
One player accounting for the assists about half his scores?
And it’s Green? Yeah, that sounds about right. I wouldn’t be surprised if last year’s stats were similar. Thanks, Con-T! I think Sherman could give us more if players other than Green got him the ball.
Stats, stats, stats...
You guys can pour over all of the stats you want.
You’re not going to figure it out.
It’s a chemistry problem right now. Guys aren’t in the right place at the right time. Passes are little bit off and guys are being missed on defense.
It’s NOT a lack of talent.
I’m pretty sure that Izzo can figure out a way to make a team with this kind of talent work.
Are they going to win the NCAAs? Probably not. Are they good enough too? Yep.
I’m not thrilled with the start and I wish Izzo would stop scheduling these games if he can’t get his team ready early in the season to play them.
But they’ve lost to #1, #4, #5, and #18.
They haven’t played like the #2 ranked team in the country but let’s not pretend like this team isn’t pretty good.
They’ll get it together one ugly Big Ten game at a time.
Thank you Bill!
I couldn’t agree more with your post. Sometimes it just takes a little longer to figure out how to play together successfully and that is evidenced by this teams slow progress thus far this season. But I (and most knowledgeable basketball fans) would agree with you that this team is oozing talent, and with the best coach in the nation there is no reason to believe that they won’t get it figured out eventually.
I was at the Texas game and was disgusted to hear some of the comments by MSU fans around me. “This could be the year we lose to Micihgan twice”…“We’ll be lucky to finish .500 in the Big Ten”…“I’ll take a 5th place Big Ten finish this year”. It made me sick. If a few shots would have fallen at the start of the second half and we could have put Texas on their heels, the crowd would have been into it more, we wouldn’t have had to force so much, and the whole outcome could have been different and everyone would be raving about how we have turned the corner and are on the way to a championship. I am one fan that is with you Bill, and will continue to stay positive and optimistic about this season. Thank you for your rational, level-headed post. Cheers.
Well
They’ve looked awful. I don’t think it’s irrational to be concerned when a team that should be good is playing awful. It’s not just State fans that have picked up on this. Guys like Bilas and Jimmy Dykes, two very good bball analysts with tremendous knowledge of the game, have expressed their frustrations with this team.
Right now, we would be lucky to finish .500 or 5th place in the big 10. And right now, I’m not sure this team could beat michigan. It disgusts me too. To say it’s a chemistry problem after 12 games with several returning experienced players who’ve won 2 conference titles and made 2 runs at a national championship is more alarming than any stat-in my opinion.
Pump the brakes on Michigan.
They are ahead of most teams due to the Eurotrip. They have beaten one decent team, an exhausted Oakland team. Once other teams catch up to them on continuity, the talent problems will show, big time. They might get us at Crisler, but It’s a bit alarmist to say we can’t beat Michigan. Michigan’s schedule is absolute garbage. Call me when they beat someone, and Clemson has a new coach and sucks. We’ll be over .500 in the league. Not saying we’ll win the thing. But it’s not as awful as it appears. No reason to cower in fear.
by rook34 on Dec 24, 2010 10:23 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Oakland Game
We you at this game at the palace? I was. We didn’t win because Oakland was exhausted. They have a player that is expected to be the number one draft pick! Both teams played hard. I went there thinking it was going to be an easy win- it was quite the opposite.
Now Praire View was an easy win. That was like MSU playing a highschool team. But we did NOT win against Oakland because they were tired. They were a great team & it’s been said that they may be in the Big Ten very soon. We won by ONE point. Oakland was not exhausted by any means.
Not discounting Oakland.
Oakland is a very good team. They have played something like 7 out of 10 away from home against great teams. They are tired right now, as they showed in Columbus last night. Just saying that because some UM fans are acting like beating Oakland is the same as beating the 1990 UNLV squad.
by rook34 on Dec 24, 2010 11:30 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah,
pump the brakes indeed. “Cower in fear”? I’ve done nothing of the sort. My opinion, based on what I’ve seen this team do, is that RIGHT NOW they might not beat michigan. No reason to be a jerk because someone states their opinion.
by Conor Boyle on Dec 24, 2010 11:48 AM CST up reply actions
Sorry for coming across as a jerk.
Guess some of hanging out at my in-laws this week (all obnoxious UM alums) has crept in. My bad for not interpreting your post correctly. My apologies.
by rook34 on Dec 24, 2010 12:02 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
2 Conference titles,
and 2 runs at a National championship encourages me to believe that this team will be alright. I’m not saying I am thrilled about the way they are playing right now, but I also don’t think that dwelling on every negative and making pessimistic predictions about the rest of the season does anybody any good. Travel and injuries have played a large part in the team’s struggles so far in my opinion, and with a little holiday break to clear some heads and heal some injuries sure can’t hurt heading into the Big Ten season. The core of this team is very familiar with all of the teams left on our schedule, and I guess I am the irrational one to think that some shots will start falling and some younger players will develop and become more comfortable out there and contribute. Happy holidays everyone.
MSU vs TEXAS
Thank you NCSPARTAN for your comments! I was at the game as well. I sat near the alumni fans one section from the visitors section. 6th row. I was so upset with one individual- one incident in particular. Texas headed into the tunnel & this guy yelled at each player shoving his arm/finger very close to their faces YOU SUCK, YOU SUCK, etc. Then it got worse. He did the same thing to two of the coaches. I was just about to go over to him when he got his ass chewed BIG TIME not only by the Texas coach but by two of the men in suits guarding the tunnel. He should not have done that. Period.
As far as the game goes- did anyone other than myself (& the announcers) notice that the refs were calling fouls against MSU when they didn’t do anything yet did NOT call very obvious fouls against Texas- some were very blatant & my side of the arena was yelling at the refs saying YOU SUCK- ARE YOU WATCHING THE SAME GAME WE ARE? We had taped the game & watched the game, & I stopped counting the bad calls against us at 21.
I have read each of these posts & I don’t like some of what I’ve read yet agree on some.
Did you earlier posts realize that we had injuries in praire view that prevented 2 players from practicing this week? Corie Lucious hurt his ankle & Keith Appling got fouled & hot a head injury? He didn’t play the 2nd have of that game because he was dizzy.
Then there is Kalin Lucas. He is still struggling with his injury from earlier this year. Tom played him too much & too hard in just about every game. MSU is a bit different from every other team. Tom has them play ranked teams & they have been worn out from traveling to Maui, Duke, Syracuse, Washington etc. Either Duke or Syracuse (can’t remember) don’t leave home until the end of January- so they are always fully rested, unlike the Spartans. I do agree that they did not play so great against Texas. Kalin wasn’t able to rest as much as he needed to- I heard an announcer say that he is being a wimp by not going full force with his ‘explosiveness’ from last year. He is still hurting. He is now 100% yet. More like 75%. I agree that we are sucking inside. Nix needs to lost a ton of weight- We were happy to see him backing into his man that was guarding him, using that big body to get inside & missed but got his own rebound resulting in a basket. I think his problem is a result of lack of confidence. Sherman has been fairly good this year- but not against Texas. They missed 44 shouts in that game out of 60+ attemped. The crowd & players reacted the same way- when everyone realized that there was no way they could win, it was like someone popped the superdome & it collapsed. Everyone stopped cheering, and people were running for the exits. I know that this team has the capability to make it to the final four. They need to watch tapes of the Illini. I’m from Illinois so this is my 2nd favorite team. Mike Tisdale is great as is Demetri McCamey. They played a great game against Missouri, lost in the end but the entire game was very close. We lost Raymar Morgan, but, we also don’t have Goran Sutton anymore. This is Kalin’s last year as it is for Summers. I think Appling has the talent to take over for Kalin with more playing time. I could go on & on. My nickname is Chatty Kathy. I will be all the games & hope that things improve. They have some down time right now to get rested. They will get their stuff together. Don’t be so hard on them! Thanks for your time. Happy Holidays to everyone
Stats take the emotion out
Terrific post KJ. Your post demonstrates exactly where this team is at right now because it only uses the facts and leaves out the emotions/expectations of fans towards their team or favorite player.
Look closely, 2 of the 3 players in the “star” quadrant are barely above the 105% average mid-axis line. Quite honestly, were it not for some high point games versus poor opponents, both Lucas & Summers (SC,TT,PVa&m) would fall in the “ball hog” quadrant at the lower right of the diagram. I know, everyone is shocked with that evaluation but once again, take emotion out of the equation, look at their production in the 4 losses vs ranked teams. In order, Uconn/Duke/Cuse/Tx, Summers pts = 13,11,18,11 ; Lucas pts = 10,14,8,17. If you are a player in the “star” quadrant averaging 29 min/game (not to mention Sr. Capt.) , you have to do better. Although Green deteriorated (22,16,6,4) , he makes up for it by averaging 9 reb/4 asst per game; hence, his higher level in the “star” quadrant. Could be even better if he would reduce his turnovers.
Next, the “efficient role players” in the upper left quadrant. Kebler’s production is distorted due to very few shot attempts and lack of opportunity, but what hinders him the most is the lack of a statistical category for shutdown defenders. Likely what makes him efficient for the minutes played is his defensive contribution. Use him more with the right combination of offensive players. Thornton is playing with a “garbage man” mentality, hustling after loose balls & rebounds, and is a decent shooter. Every team needs a guy like that and can provide a spark at the right time. Sherman is the true key to this team as they move forward. At 67 FG%, there is no excuse for not giving him more touches in the post, except his foul shooting. He has demonstrated the ability to be an effective passer if doubled; yet possesses the best back to the basket moves of any post player. Coach Izzo has likened his skills to Zach Randolph. The lack of guards with ability to make entry passes is a problem but Green is proficient at it. A high/low post combination would draw defenses in tighter, thereby creating open shots for the perimeter players. It’s just fundamental basketball. Sherman is also a solid defender with great court awareness and help defense capability.
As for the “limited” players in the lower left quadrant, there is no question Roe is under-achieving considering his athleticism. Finally, he is healthy and knows the system, yet something seems to be holding him back. Nix just seems to be lost alot of the time. There is potential there but it seems to be one step forward—two back. For having done a great job losing weight since last year he seems to be the same or slower. Can’t really figure it out but it appears he is in the quadrant he belongs.
Lastly, Lucious is also where he belongs in relation to the way he is performing. Uses lots of possessions without a lot of positive production. Many of his turnovers are unforced or the result of a bad decision which is correctible but inexcusable as a Jr in the program. I thought last year’s NCAA would have been a nice springboard for him but it hasn’t happened. Payne is a huge project with a lot of potential but nowhere near what is needed in the Big10 season. Probably another case of scouting services over-rating an incoming freshman and too high of expectations. He has part of the physical tools (needs to get stronger) but is really behind on the mental side of the game. Be patient and see where he is in March.
Condensed: This team relies too much on the jumpshot.
This team has a selfish backcourt with too many turnovers.
This team isn’t using the correct post players enough offensively.
This team need to re-establish a tough, blue-collar style of play
Fortunately, Coach Izzo is adept at recognizing problems and developing players to their potential. So I would not panic just yet, but rather be mildly concerned as MSU heads into the Big10 schedule. Go Green, Go White !

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