My Gift to You: Nonconference Edition Big Ten PORPAG

[And, no, I don't have the receipt.]

Original post on Points Over Replacement Per Adjusted Game (PORPAG) is here.  Last season's conference-only numbers are here.  Big picture concept/caveats:

  • As a refresher, this stat is an attempt to measure the marginal points per game a player contributes to his team on offense above what a "replacement-level" player would provide.
  • Major caveats: (1) Basketball is a team, not an individual, sport and (2) this stat tells you nothing whatsoever about defense.
  • Technical stuff:

    • Pace factor is set at 62 possession/game--roughly the average for Big Ten play last year.  Per usual, Big Ten teams are playing at (mostly) faster paces during pre-conference play.
    • I've continued to leave the "replacement-level" offensive rating at 88.0.
    • This stat is meant to measure cumulative, rather than average, offensive impact.  So missing time due to injury hurts you.
    • This is pre-conference data, including all nonconference games played to date other than tonight's Ohio State/UT-Martin game.  The strengths of pre-conference schedules vary widely.  At the extremes, John Shurna put his numbers up against much less stiff competition than Draymond Green did.
    • The table below includes all players who've played at least 40% of their teams' minutes in conference play.  Data is pulled from StatSheet.com.  The Minute% numbers can be a little glitchy for players that have missed time due to injury/etc.  I'm not aware of any such issues so far this season, although I may be missing something.

    Lots and lots of numbers after the jump:

    Rk Player Yr Team OffRtg Poss% Min% PORPAG
    1 John Shurna Jr Northwestern 133.5 26.4 83.0 6.17
    2 Jon Leuer Sr Wisconsin 129.3 27.9 80.2 5.73
    3 Jordan Taylor Jr Wisconsin 132.0 23.7 84.4 5.46
    4 Darius Morris So Michigan 121.7 26.2 85.6 4.68
    5 Jared Sullinger Fr Ohio State 125.9 26.6 69.2 4.33
    6 Talor Battle Sr Penn State 114.8 28.3 89.5 4.21
    7 Demetri McCamey Sr Illinois 121.5 24.2 80.6 4.05
    8 E`Twaun Moore Sr Purdue 117.0 27.6 78.8 3.90
    9 Christian Watford So Indiana 118.1 28.7 72.5 3.88
    10 Jon Diebler Sr Ohio State 143.5 14.0 80.2 3.87
    11 Blake Hoffarber Sr Minnesota 126.5 18.7 84.2 3.75
    12 JaJuan Johnson Sr Purdue 115.9 26.3 82.3 3.73
    13 David Lighty Sr Ohio State 121.2 21.5 75.8 3.36
    14 Drew Crawford So Northwestern 116.8 23.9 77.5 3.31
    15 Michael Thompson Sr Northwestern 117.8 20.3 87.5 3.27
    16 Jordan Hulls So Indiana 133.7 14.1 68.5 2.74
    17 Deshaun Thomas Fr Ohio State 122.1 28.5 43.3 2.61
    18 Jeff Brooks Sr Penn State 111.3 22.0 75.2 2.39
    19 Keaton Nankivil Sr Wisconsin 124.3 17.6 55.8 2.20
    20 Draymond Green Jr Michigan State 109.5 24.8 65.8 2.18
    21 D.J. Richardson So Illinois 115.5 16.5 76.0 2.14
    22 Josh Gasser Fr Wisconsin 120.0 15.8 66.5 2.08
    23 Jordan Morgan Fr Michigan 113.6 23.3 56.3 2.08
    24 Kalin Lucas Sr Michigan State 106.0 25.4 72.9 2.07
    25 Durrell Summers Sr Michigan State 108.1 21.9 73.5 2.00
    26 Mike Tisdale Sr Illinois 112.2 21.5 61.1 1.97
    27 Trevor Mbakwe Jr Minnesota 108.3 23.3 67.1 1.97
    28 Mike Bruesewitz So Wisconsin 126.3 13.9 58.3 1.93
    29 Ralph Sampson III Jr Minnesota 109.2 21.6 64.2 1.81
    30 Tim Hardaway Jr Fr Michigan 105.9 23.9 66.0 1.76
    31 William Buford Jr Ohio State 104.5 25.5 66.0 1.72
    32 Aaron Craft Fr Ohio State 117.2 13.9 66.0 1.65
    33 Luke Mirkovic Jr Northwestern 113.8 17.5 58.3 1.63
    34 D.J. Byrd So Purdue 118.5 16.0 50.7 1.54
    35 Matt Gatens Jr Iowa 108.0 19.3 62.9 1.51
    36 Mike Davis Sr Illinois 105.2 19.1 73.0 1.49
    37 Zack Novak Jr Michigan 108.8 13.9 81.3 1.46
    38 David Jackson Sr Penn State 105.7 20.4 62.5 1.40
    39 Bill Cole Sr Illinois 130.8 12.1 43.0 1.38
    40 Tim Jarmusz Sr Wisconsin 135.1 9.8 48.1 1.38
    41 Zach McCabe Fr Iowa 107.9 18.9 56.0 1.31
    42 Evan Smotrycz Fr Michigan 109.2 20.0 46.7 1.22
    43 Maurice Creek So Indiana 104.3 22.0 52.7 1.17
    44 Alex Marcotullio So Northwestern 112.9 16.1 47.0 1.16
    45 Lewis Jackson Jr Purdue 108.0 15.5 55.5 1.07
    46 Stu Douglass Jr Michigan 104.7 16.3 62.7 1.06
    47 Victor Oladipo Fr Indiana 105.1 24.1 41.1 1.05
    48 Dallas Lauderdale Sr Ohio State 114.3 11.9 51.9 1.00
    49 Roy Devyn Marble Fr Iowa 108.2 18.8 40.6 0.95
    50 Colton Iverson Jr Minnesota 103.6 22.7 43.3 0.95
    51 Ryne Smith Jr Purdue 116.1 11.1 46.8 0.91
    52 Brandon Paul So Illinois 100.3 23.3 49.9 0.89
    53 Keith Appling Fr Michigan State 105.1 18.6 41.0 0.81
    54 Jarryd Cole Sr Iowa 101.4 17.6 54.2 0.79
    55 Garrick Sherman So Michigan State 107.4 13.8 44.6 0.74
    56 Eric May So Iowa 95.4 21.2 72.5 0.71
    57 Andrew Jones Sr Penn State 99.9 12.3 74.5 0.67
    58 Austin Hollins Fr Minnesota 106.6 13.8 41.9 0.67
    59 Delvon Roe Jr Michigan State 98.7 17.2 56.5 0.64
    60 Melsahn Basabe Fr Iowa 96.9 20.2 56.7 0.63
    61 Korie Lucious Jr Michigan State 96.9 20.8 54.0 0.62
    62 Jereme Richmond Fr Illinois 95.6 21.8 53.5 0.55
    63 Rodney Williams So Minnesota 96.8 19.3 50.8 0.54
    64 Jeremiah Rivers Sr Indiana 101.8 10.6 51.2 0.46
    65 Bryce Cartwright Jr Iowa 92.2 25.9 67.7 0.45
    66 Verdell Jones III Jr Indiana 90.5 31.4 58.1 0.28
    67 Tim Frazier So Penn State 91.4 16.1 66.6 0.23
    68 Billy Oliver Fr Penn State 92.9 14.7 43.2 0.19
    69 Terone Johnson Fr Purdue 90.9 19.4 47.0 0.16
    70 Kelsey Barlow So Purdue 86.8 19.5 50.9 (0.07)

     

    Bullets:

    • No sense dwelling on the MSU entries, since this is basically just another way of looking at the data we looked at last week.  Lucas, Green, and Summers have been good, but not that good.  No one has stepped up as consistent 4th and 5th offensive options.
    • John Shurna is shooting over .600 from both 2-point and 3-point range.  Regardless of the level of competition, that's pretty impressive.  Shurna has scored 20+ points in 8 of 10 games, including all 3 games vs. KenPom top-100 opponents.
    • Leuer and Taylor are about as good an inside/outside combo as Bo Ryan could ask for in his offense.  The question is what he gets out of the supporting cast.  No other Wisconsin player listed above has a usage rate about 18%.  Tim Jarmusz should probably shoot a little more; he leads the conference in offensive rating but has a usage rate (just) below 10%.
    • Same deal for Purdue: Can they get enough from guys other than Moore and Johnson?  The only other two guys with usage rates approaching 20 both have offensive ratings hovering around 90.  (Purdue does have the advantage of a top-5 defense, though.)
    • Darius Morris has gotten real good real fast.  Second most prolific passer in the country, and he's converting 57% of his 2-point attempts.
    • Demetri McCamey's been up and down in terms of scoring totals; he's only scored 15+ points in 6 of 13 games.  But that's more a function of knowing when to shoot than it is of bad shooting nights.  McCamey has only had one game (the opener) in which he made less than one-third of his 3-point attempts.
    • Talor Battle has been Battle-esque.  And Jeff Brooks is looking like a legitimate #2 option.  Those two players combined for 42 points on 26 FGA in a very big Big Ten-play-opening road win vs. IU tonight.
    • Four of the top 17 players on the list are from Ohio State.  And a slow-starting William Buford is not among those four players.  And the Buckeyes have been better on defense--#1 in the nation according to KenPom vs. #5 on offense.  In a pretty solid conference, Ohio State stands head and shoulders above the rest of the league.
    • At this point (working much more off numbers than eyeballs), I'd go with McCamey, Moore, Shurna, Leuer, and Sullinger for all-Big Ten honors.
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