Big Ten Basketball Bradley-Terry Projections, Dec. 31

With the start of conference play, it's time to project the conference standings. I had hoped to get this in before any games were played, but the holidays (and not realizing that some conference games were to be played earlier this week) got in the way. Given the wildly varying levels of competition faced to date, it's hard to say how much value any ratings will have, but here are the projections, such as they are. First, team rankings:

  Pom Rank Pom WPct BT Rank BT WPct MABT Rank MABT WPct
Ohio St 1 0.9896 6 0.9816 1 0.9931
Wisconsin 12 0.9529 17 0.9450 14 0.9599
Purdue 7 0.9662 19 0.9402 11 0.9646
Minnesota 57 0.8584 31 0.9160 39 0.9032
Illinois 27 0.9304 40 0.8911 28 0.9338
Northwestern 48 0.8834 41 0.8893 31 0.9285
Michigan St 21 0.9381 44 0.8824 48 0.8853
Michigan 71 0.8272 52 0.8544 47 0.8881
Penn St 80 0.7802 87 0.7597 82 0.7678
Indiana 76 0.8085 120 0.6242 98 0.7230
Iowa 72 0.8191 137 0.5661 111 0.6880

 

Pomeroy's rankings still have some preseason projection in them, which accounts for part of the discrepancy. Based just on this year, there's a pretty solid middle tier of five teams below the OSU-Wisconsin-Purdue trio and ahead of PSU-Indiana-Iowa.

Basic Bradley-Terry (W-L only)

As always, home court is ignored. In the offseason I plan to look at a way to factor it in (my instinct is to adjust your opponents' ratings for the strength of schedule calculation, multiplying by some factor if it was a road game and dividing if it was home), but for now it has no effect.

Team WPct Current Average wins Win all 14 or more 12 or more 9 or more 6 or fewer 4 or fewer Lose all Outright title Share of title
Ohio St 0.9816 0-0 15.78 8.74% 94.38% 99.71% 99.9995% 1 in 42.4M 1 in 30.6B 1 in 2.48e18 79.29% 89.90%
Wisconsin 0.9450 1-0 12.57 0.05% 30.43% 73.78% 98.85% 0.04% 1 in 253k 1 in 9.14B (1-17) 4.88% 11.16%
Purdue 0.9402 1-0 12.24 0.03% 23.81% 67.22% 98.27% 0.06% 1 in 154k 1 in 5.90B (1-17) 3.70% 8.46%
Minnesota 0.9160 0-1 10.44 1 in 20,400 (17-1) 3.83% 27.99% 86.15% 1.47% 0.05% 1 in 263M 0.40% 1.30%
Northwestern 0.8893 0-0 9.95 1 in 216k 2.92% 20.91% 77.63% 3.53% 0.20% 1 in 23.4M 0.19% 0.90%
Illinois 0.8911 1-0 9.63 1 in 864k 1.63% 15.38% 73.00% 4.32% 0.21% 1 in 1.64M (1-17) 0.18% 0.73%
Michigan St
0.8824 0-0 9.17 1 in 1.02M 1.15% 11.33% 63.44% 8.28% 0.68% 1 in 2.99M 0.08% 0.36%
Michigan 0.8544 0-1 8.04 1 in 5.22M (17-1) 0.11% 2.79% 39.92% 19.83% 2.38% 1 in 434k <0.01% <0.01%
Penn St 0.7597 1-0 5.33 1 in 198B 1 in 216k 0.04% 3.58% 76.20% 32.47% 0.43% (1-17) <0.01% <0.01%
Indiana 0.6242 0-1 3.11 1 in 383T (17-1) 1 in 977M 1 in 2.04M 0.05% 98.41% 83.06% 2.20% <0.01% <0.01%
Iowa 0.5661 0-1 2.73 1 in 3.37e15 (17-1) 1 in 5.13B 1 in 7.91M 0.02% 99.19% 88.83% 4.15% <0.01% <0.01%

 

This follows the rankings themselves pretty closely, with only minor exceptions (NW moves up thanks to getting OSU and Purdue once each). Based just on record, you have to like Northwestern's chances of breaking their 0-for-NCAA streak (10-8 in a ridiculously stacked Big Ten would carry a lot of weight). With Ohio State unbeaten, the projections strongly favor them to win the title.

Margin-Aware Bradley-Terry

Team WPct Current Average wins Win all 14 or more 12 or more 9 or more 6 or fewer 4 or fewer Lose all Outright title Share of title
Ohio St 0.9931 0-0 16.75 26.58% 99.47% 99.99% 99.999998% 1 in 50.7B 1 in 142T 1 in 1.57e23 91.60% 96.88%
Purdue 0.9646 1-0 12.89 0.04% 36.35% 80.71% 99.50% 0.01% 1 in 1.48M 1 in 108B (1-17) 1.79% 4.96%
Wisconsin 0.9599 1-0 12.27 0.01% 23.64% 68.30% 98.47% 0.05% 1 in 184k 1 in 6.38B (1-17) 1.06% 3.12%
Northwestern 0.9285 0-0 10.70 1 in 79,800 6.33% 33.85% 87.93% 1.32% 0.05% 1 in 166M 0.15% 0.49%
Illinois 0.9338 1-0 10.35 1 in 445k 3.51% 26.11% 85.13% 1.54% 0.05% 1 in 14.3M (1-17) 0.04% 0.18%
Minnesota 0.9032 0-1 8.70 1 in 3.13M (17-1) 0.26% 5.68% 54.68% 11.02% 0.94% 1 in 1.94M <0.01% <0.01%
Michigan 0.8881 0-1 8.14 1 in 12.1M (17-1) 0.10% 2.98% 42.12% 18.25% 2.12% 1 in 450k <0.01% <0.01%
Michigan St 0.8853 0-0 8.03 1 in 35.4M 0.18% 3.38% 39.94% 21.14% 2.92% 1 in 214k 0.01% 0.01%
Penn St 0.7678 1-0 4.60 1 in 24.2T 1 in 3.51M 1 in 21,800 1.09% 88.13% 49.55% 1.30% (1-17) <0.01% <0.01%
Indiana 0.7230 0-1 3.32 1 in 288T (17-1) 1 in 468M 1 in 968k 0.10% 97.61% 78.81% 1.75% <0.01% <0.01%
Iowa 0.6880 0-1 3.27 1 in 456T (17-1) 1 in 568M 1 in 1.08M 0.09% 97.73% 79.61% 2.05% <0.01% <0.01%

 

Biggest differences are in Minnesota's rating dropping behind the two Illinois schools, Michigan jumping up, and the dregs (Indiana and Iowa) being less awful. If you are already panicking about MSU, I'm afraid this chart gives you more reason to. I suspect MSU's chances of a title being better than Minnesota or Michigan's is an artifact of simulation; the title chances were computed by 10,000 simulated seasons and one happened to come out with an outright MSU title. I suspect all three are probably similar.

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