Does this really happen every year?
by KJ@theonlycolors on Dec 8, 2010 7:50 PM CST
in Michigan State Spartans Basketball
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PrintWell, yeah, kind of:
Season
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Preseason
AP Rank
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Pre-Conf
Top 50
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Pre-Conf
Top 100
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Big Ten
Record
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NCAA
Seed
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NCAA Result
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002-03 | #9 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 10-6 | #7 | Elite Eight |
| 2003-04 | #3 | 0-5 | 2-5 | 12-4 | #7 | 1st Round |
| 2004-05 | #13 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 13-3 | #5 | Final Four |
| 2005-06 | #4 | 3-1 | 4-1 | 8-8 | #6 | 1st Round |
| 2006-07 | -- | 1-2 | 3-2 | 8-8 | #9 | 2nd Round |
| 2007-08 | #8 | 3-1 | 5-1 | 12-6 | #5 | Sweet 16 |
| 2008-09 | #6 | 2-1 | 2-2 | 15-3 | #2 | Runner Up |
| 2009-10 | #2 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 14-4 | #5 | Final Four |
| 2010-11 | #2 | 1-3 | 2-3 | ?? | ?? | ?? |
In 7 of the past 8 seasons, the pollsters have deemed MSU to be a top-15 team entering the season. On almost every occasion, the team has gone on to disappoint in the pre-conference season, losing to at least two KenPom top-100 teams in 5 of the 7 years. The 2005-06 season only saw one loss, but there were no top-20 teams on the schedule (MSU beat #21 Arizona and #24 Boston College). The 2007-08 season was the only really major-error-free pre-conference run: a 5-point loss to #3 UCLA but a win over #9 Texas. (These are all end-of-season KenPom ranks.)
Ironically, neither of the one-loss pre-conference runs led to great success further down the road: a .500 Big Ten record plus a first-round loss, and a 4th-place Big Ten finish plus a (blowout) loss in the third round of the tournament.
Meanwhile, 3 of the 4 seasons that ended in at least an Elite Eight appearance involved some combination of multiple bad pre-conference losses and/or a lack of quality pre-conference wins. The exception was the 2008-09 season--but that's a bit misleading. A blowout loss to #54 Maryland cost the team a chance to play a highly-ranked team in Orlando and there was, of course, the disaster vs. UNC at Ford Field.
What's left is the post-Lorbek implosion against the murderer's row 2003-04 pre-conference slate.
[Warning: This thing is going to start rambling after the jump. I mean it. Get out now if you can't take another dozen non-coherent paragraphs on the state of the 2010-11 Michigan State basketball team.]
So I guess there's some comfort there. Bad starts have actually been a pre-condition to March success over the last 8 MSU basketball campaigns. I wouldn't necessarily imply causation, but at least the direction of the correlation doesn't spell DOOM.
Here's the thing, though: You really need to have a lot of faith in Tom Izzo's NCAA Tournament coaching skills. In only one season (2008-09) has MSU been able to rebound from a slow start with sufficient force to earn a favorable seed in the Big Dance. In every other case, MSU has had to overcome larger obstacles than they might as a top seed to advance in the tournament (or seen a major obstacle drop out of the way before they got to it, in the case of last season's tournament run).
Further, this season's pre-conference struggles feel a little different than previous season's. MSU has now played 8 games against Division I opponents and turned the ball over at 23%+ clip in each and every game. Last season, the team only hit that threshold in 4 of its first 9 games. The season prior, it was 3 of the first 7. (I'm using December 8 as the cut-off date.) And it's an almost teamwide phenomenon: 8 of MSU's 11 players have individual turnover percentages of 24% or higher.
Previous Spartan squads have taken some time to gel against top competition. This year's team is struggling to find offensive cohesiveness against any kind of competition. (And, despite the multiple defensive breakdowns inside against Syracuse, the bulk of the problems are on offense. KenPom's hybrid projections/ratings now have MSU at #27 on offense vs. #9 on defense, despite the defensive numbers suffering due the easy baskets resulting from the plethora of turnovers on offense.)
I generally play the voice of reason when it comes to assessing the team's performance level. I'm having a little harder time sticking to that role this season. By my reasoned-stathead standards, I've been pretty up and down in terms of evaluating things over the last couple weeks. Down after the Chaminade/UConn games. Back up a little after the Washington win. Concerned but looking at the half-full part of the glass after the Duke loss.
I'm back at "down." My main concern is that the signs we've seen of a solid 8- or 9-man rotation coming together to play Tom Izzo's brand of basketball have been fleeting. The two freshmen have shown glimpses but looked absolutely overmatched last night. The two walk-ons have done about as much as can be expected-- particularly Austin Thornton, who actually has the 2nd highest offensive rating on the team--but simply aren't legitimate offensive options against quality opposition. Garrick Sherman remains the most promising of the underclassmen in terms of becoming a reliable 20+ minute contributor, but still has a ways to go in terms of outfoxing bigger/stronger opponents. Derrick Nix provided a nice spark last night, but it's hard to put your faith in a guy who's scored a total of 4 points this season.
The team's core group will be fine. Kalin Lucas will reach 100% health at some point. Draymond Green will keep doing, well, everything (he ranks in the top 400 nationally in 11 of 13 KenPom offensive categories). Durrell Summers is, more often than not, playing the roles he needs to--knocking down jumpshots and grabbing rebounds. Korie Lucious is an increasingly key playmaker and decreasingly a liability in terms of his decision making. Delvon Roe isn't blossoming into a major low-post scoring threat, but he'll eventually find his footing and provide a solid defensive and rebounding presence inside.
Unfortunately, the losses of Raymar Morgan and Chris Allen are hurting more than we might have expected. Allen's departure means that Thornton and/or Keith Appling have to play significant minutes, regardless of form or match-ups. The absence of Morgan's versatility means that Draymond's versatility is being stretched that much further. He's being asked to initiate offense on the perimeter while also remaining a factor in the paint as MSU's other post players struggle to play consistently.
To get to even an 8-player rotation with the baseline athletic ability to play with other national contenders, Izzo needs two of the Appling/Payne/Nix group to emerge as reliable options over the next month or two. It could well happen. But it may not.
And it's not quite that simple in terms of finding more balance offensively. Unless one or two of the non-Draymond big men find a consistent scoring touch, this team will need to play a perimeter-based game very efficiently. That means continuing to shoot the ball well from the outside while dramatically reducing the number of turnovers committed in the course of creating those shots. (I'm less worried about the rebounding issues; if there's one problem Tom Izzo knows how to fix, it's that one.)
Time to wrap up: I'm not sure this exercise has done anything to crystalize the situation. In fact, I'm sure it hasn't. The positive spin is that MSU has lost to three top-ten teams--all in games played away from East Lansing--while multiple players round back into form after dealing with offseason injuries. (Note that KenPom isn't buying UConn and Syracuse as top-ten performers quite yet, though--although his numbers do like Washington, slotting them in at #5. Thank goodness MSU pulled that one out. It keeps a top-3 NCAA seed at least theoretically in play.)
The negative spin is that the struggles against lesser opponents portend problems against teams ranked below #10 but above, say, #100. We'll know a little more after Saturday (KenPom has Oakland at #87). Then the team will regroup during finals week before playing one more patsie going into this year's final pre-conference test (#25 Texas).
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Thanks for the warning
But in my opinion it’s not necessary. Because this team right now is defying coherent and rational analysis.
Others have written that individually almost everyone on the team looks to have improved their games in some way in the offseason.
Summers, Lucious and Green all seem to be shooting the ball with more confidence and more efficiently, (especially Green).
Green, Sherman, and Nix all put in significant work getting themselves stronger and into better shape.
Roe is supposedly healthier than he has ever been.
And yet, the sum of these players is not adding up to what most of us are expecting from them. I don’t know if anyone knows why. I mentioned this in the recap thread, but judging from Izzo’s post game comments that includes him. I can’t recall him ever going that far in calling out a team before.
Saturday is huge, they need to play well. But that Texas game, after having a bunch of rest and practice time, to me is going to be a true test for whether these guys are going to get it together to be contenders for Big Ten and National Titles.
The most important player on the team (well, maybe second most) isn't listed above.
This team, over the long haul, has to have Lucas at something approaching his past efficiency.
If I had to guess, by watching, it appears to me that we have a whole bunch of guys with uncertain basketball futures who are trying to figure out what they are doing, all at the same time.
The fact that Green, Summers, Lucas, and possibly Roe are all trying to show themselves to NBA scouts was the factor that most concerned me before the season. (Payne is all over the draft boards based on his ridiculous potential, and he’ll stay on the radar no matter how poorly he plays) That doesn’t always make for a cohesive unit.
Also, I’m not sure this team isn’t already looking ahead to March. They don’t appear to be particularly enamored of the process at the moment. Maybe the better part of a month with an empty campus and little to do but play basketball together will help. It’d be nice to see these guys have a little fun out there.
Finally, we do have the best possible coach to figure this out. Can he? Don’t know. But rest assured, he will pull out every stop on the board in trying. I would guess the players might have to hide or ignore their feelings for awhile. Izzo is angry, and it’s not in the man to give up.
Lucas
I was trying to list the players that had made offseason improvements, and given his injury it would have been hard for him to really work on his game.
But, your right it’s tough to talk about the team’s potential without talking about Lucas. The thing is, early on many of us, myself included, were commenting at how close to 100 percent Lucas looked. It would appear that his issues are more related to his conditioning and the ability to take the daily grind of the season. Maybe he has lost a tiny bit of explosiveness, which isn’t insignificant, but he has still managed to score 14 a game including 28 vs Chaminade and 29 vs Washington in his 3rd game in 3 days. Don’t know what to make of his play. Last night he had either 5 or 6 turnovers (I saw both numbers reported). He looks out of sync. That can be related to the injury even if physically he is close to being back.
But you are right, they need him playing well. Obviously.
I hadn’t thought about the NBA angle, but Izzo talked about it being a distraction last year. Lucas and Summers both admitted they were thinking about it as well. Don’t know the solution to that particular question either.
by trivialstuff16 on Dec 8, 2010 9:21 PM CST up reply actions
Hoop Dreams
Drew Nietzel and Chris Hill showed declines in their senior seasons, perhaps as a result of looking ahead to professional careers. I seem to remember Nietzel admitting to being distracted b that in his last campaign.
I’m not sure how one gets youngsters to focus on the here and now.
Lucas improvement
I remember in the pre-season Izzo talking a lot about how Kalin’s injury had allowed him to step back and look at the overall picture of his game and role as a distributor on the team. He also talked about how Kalin and Rel were in the tape room more than him.
His assist stats have never been overly impressive for a pg (which can be attributed to MSU’s good ball movement, and running of set plays), but I was expecting to see more emphasis on that part of his year. The most puzzling part for me is that Kalin has been at the 2, and Korie at the point most of the year when they’re in together. I was always under the impression Korie was more of a combo-guard than Kalin.
For the sake of good ole fashion speculation, but could this be to:
-Give Kalin a rest in games?
-Continue to build Korie’s experience at the 1? (For this year and the next)
-Any other ideas??
Kalin has shown he can still score at will in (some) games, yet in others not so much. I think pretty much everyone would agree that he’s not 100% back yet, and hopefully this break around finals will let his body recover from all the travel and play. I definitely agree with rook and trivialstuff, the reemergence of our Big Ten POY should be not understated in the team’s potential.
"We were a little fat and sassy" -Tom Izzo
by itsalwaysunnyinEL on Dec 9, 2010 6:16 AM CST up reply actions
Free throw shooting
Really concerns me. There was a time when we were good at that. I’m not much of a stats or strategy kind of guy, but it seems to me that rebounding and free throw shooting are not up to our usual standards. I agree that rebounding will probably come around, but what about the free throw shooting. Better shooting could have won the Uconn and Duke games.
I also haven’t noticed an improvement in team chemistry this season which I believe was one of the reasons Allen was kicked off the team. Allen might have also made the difference in the aforementioned games.
Ultimately, I think we’ll be fine. Unfortunately, I’m just not as confident that we’ll end the season with a National Championship as I was a month ago.
Not picking on you in particular...
but can we please put a period at the end of the Chris Allen sentence? The kid, as I said last night, had enumerable chances to get himself together. He couldn’t do it. None of us know for sure what incident broke the camel’s back, but earlier in the year, Rexrode (who is The Man on the MSU Basketball beat) noted that not a single teammate had kept in touch with Allen since his departure. That says a lot.
I hope the kid gets himself going, in order, and has a great season next year at ISU. But he’s not here. And it was Izzo’s decision for him not to be here.
Allen
Oh, I’m not in the “I wish Allen were still here / we’re lost without him” club. It is what it is. He’s not here. There’s your period.
All I was trying to do was point out the obvious: on court team chemistry does not appear to be any better than it was last year. Maybe they’re all the best of friends off the court, but considering the play where KL2 stood under the basket with his arms in the air giving Sherman a “WTF” look as ’Cuse ran the other way for an uncontested layup, I kind of doubt that as well.
Also, on the Allen related front. What’s wrong with the “we miss Allen” talk anyway? Why not get on to people for the “we miss Raymar” talk? Morgan couldn’t have been here in any case, so that talk seems even sillier to me.
Bit of a stretch
To suggest they may not be friends because Korie looked pissed at Sherman for missing a pass is a stretch, no? Looked to me like Sherm blew his assignment and Korie was letting him know. I really don’t see how anyone could draw conclusions about their personal relationship from that.
In regards to the difference in Allen/Morgan not being here hurts-In my opinion, and I know I’m not the end all be all, but I really don’t think Allen was ever THAT good. He did some things well enough, but there are a few notions on the kid that make me think I’ve been watching a different team than those who miss him so much.
-Defense: He was never a lock down defender, period. His defense improved, certainly. How could it not, honestly? As a freshman and sophomore the kid couldn’t spell defense, let alone play it. This angle of his worth is so overblown.
-3 Point Shooting: Only slightly less overblown angle to his worth. He was never off the charts on this either. Durrell is a better shooter, so is Korie. When Kalin is rolling again, that makes 3. And I’ve noticed Green has improved here as well. Simply put, we don’t miss his 3 point shooting.
-Turnovers: Sure, when you consider the way this team loves to turn the ball over they DEFINIITELY miss his stellar ball handling. (I hope my sarcasm is picked up here)
-Consistency: Just as consistent as Summers. Period
Just speculation but I think people might be saying they miss Ray now because he was so severly criticized when he was here, and now they see how valuable he was. Maybe
I am leaning toward wbrianr on this one
Allen may not have been a superstar, but he was a Big Ten ready player, who could hit threes and was our second best perimeter defender last year. I’m not saying our problems would be fixed if he were here, but I think he could definitely help things. Mostly for a reason KJ mentioned that you didn’t Conor… Minutes. Appling has looked lost, and Thornton has been physically overmatched. I think Allen would have been significantly more productive eating up20-25 of their minutes a game.
That being said, he is gone, and had to go. But a few points to make here to.
1. Chemistry has not noticeably improved, at least on court.
and,
2. Lets not disparage Allen because he left. The kid gave everything to get us to a final four last year while playing through an injury. Not to mention, when he was forced out, he acted like an adult and left instead of kicking or screaming.
Not to bicker
But when you say “forced out”, you imply that he did not contribute to his dismissal. How many players have we seen end up like Allen in Izzo’s 14 years? And most adults would probably not find themselves in a situation where they have to leave a program where the circumstances and benefits are much nicer than 90% of those around them.
I’m not trying to be a jerk, I know this isn’t the real issue right now, but giving him praise for leaving gracefully completely looks over what put him in the position to leave in the first place.
Although I'd like to see composure,
dirty looks, and the occasional chewing out will do too. I’ve noticed a lot more of them this season than last year (I’m sure there are plenty every year). The talk from this team after the lose to the Orange was about manning up, and I think that means holding each other accountable for their play.
Lack of chemistry can probably(hopefully?) be blamed on the more serious injuries over the off-season and the smaller ones that flared up at the start of the season.
Also +1 on the Allen/Raymar comment
"We were a little fat and sassy" -Tom Izzo
by itsalwaysunnyinEL on Dec 9, 2010 8:18 AM CST up reply actions
I don't hang around the comments section here enough to know if i'm the only one to feel this way.
Here’s the thing, though: You really need to have a lot of faith in Tom Izzo’s NCAA Tournament coaching skills. In only one season (2008-09) has MSU been able to rebound from a slow start with sufficient force to earn a favorable seed in the Big Dance. In every other case, MSU has had to overcome larger obstacles than they might as a top seed to advance in the tournament (or seen a major obstacle drop out of the way before they got to it, in the case of last season’s tournament run).
But with as incredibly luck-based as the NCAA Tournament run I don’t have the faith in Tom Izzo’s NCAA Tournament coaching skills. That is not an indictment on his skills as a coach – I’ll put his skills against any coach in the game – but more a referendum on the beast that is that tournament. The one-and-done is just too deeply rooted in luck for me to put faith in someone continually defying the odds. But that’s probably my baseball-backround coming out in me a bit.
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Certainly a logical school of thought.
I’m not a stat guy, so I tend to side with Izzo’s coaching in the tourney. Those games often come down to game management i and play calling in the last 4 minutes or in overtime, and Izzo is without peer in that department. If you take out the 04 and 06 flameouts which we all saw coming, we rarely lose a close game in the tournament. Over the past several years, we lose primarily when outclassed heavily in the talent department. O5 UNC. 07 UNC. 08 Memphis. 09 UNC. Butler was certainly a change in this department, but there were a lot of weird factors in that game, from the injuries to playing essentially a road game to getting a ridiculous whistle.
Have we been lucky? Sure. We were lucky KU went down last year. But it’s also tough to consider a team playing without its best player and with two players basically on one leg all that lucky.
Have faith, my friend
The ‘other’ statistical guru of East Lansing—Nate Silver—did an analysis of Izzo’s tournament success last spring:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/03/incredible-izzo-again-defies-odds.html
It’s well-worth re-reading occasionally. Warm fuzzies on similar level to “Little Giants” replays.
following up on my post below
I agree that’s a great article, I remember reading it in the spring. My point in the post below is similar to one of Mr. Silver’s caveats:
Finally, analyses like this are always subject to cherry-picking. Although the odds of any one particular coach doing as well as Izzo in the tournament are very low, the chances that some coach somewhere will have a record like this are considerably higher.
And with that I’ll end my comments on this subject, until March. Skill or luck, hopefully we’ll be in Houston. And if it is luck, well, I’ll probably call it skill anyways!
interesting perspective
I’m an Izzo guy through and through – I wouldn’t want anyone else on my sideline in March or April.
At the same time, stochastic (random) processes have kinda been my thing for the last two years of grad school… and not once did I ever consider that Tom Izzo’s tournament performance as merely a random outlier. It had to happen to some coach at some time, right? Interesting. Guess the fact that I never considered that shows my own bias.
Anyways, clearly this team is going to take awhile to find itself. Let’s hope it happens before the Big Ten season gets underway. And, I suppose, we should temper our expectations by considering how we would have felt about this team pre-season IF the ball had bounced the other way once or twice last spring and we’d had an early round exit.
Hope no one takes this as doom and gloom. It is just really interesting trying to sort out what is random and what is not when you want to believe it is all skill!
I don't understand
In a one and done situation, a coach who consistenly comes through more often than not ,over a 12 year period should not be considered consistent? Rather, he should be considered lucky? I’m really not flaming you here, I just don’t understand.
I would think his past success in “the beast” that is the tournament would instill confidence in others. To me, the only other coach that I’d want coaching my team in March is Coach K (can’t spell his name). Bill Self, maybe, But only if Izzo wasn’t available.
If you’re saying that coaching is coaching, no matter what month you’ve got a point. But there is still an argument there. The one and done nature requires something different than the rest of the season. If I, or any else, could explain it-there’d be a lot of other coaches with Izzo’s winning percentage in March
There's no doubt he's the best in the business come March
But that doesn’t mean he’s a sure thing if the team hasn’t come together by then. Either of the last two tournament runs could have ended short of the Final Four if a play or two breaks the wrong way.
And, as I’ve asserted before, being a legitimate national title contender means showing a level of dominance in regular season play that MSU hasn’t shown since the 1999-2001 run.
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Dec 9, 2010 7:50 AM CST up reply actions
Ok
Strong point.
Though Duke wasn’t dominant last season. Kansas could probably say they were. Kentucky too. Syracuse was very good when they won with “slap you then run away” Carmelo, but not dominant. They were a 3 seed that year. Two years ago Oklahoma had Blake Griffin and they steam rolled through the regular season….all they way to the sweet 16.
Don’t take this as bickering. I just think the panic level is getting really high, really quick. Though I can’t say that I blame anyone. I’m not predicting a National Championship right now.
I think KJ's point was
when was the last time a NC winner had a seed lower than 4. In his graph above he shows just how rare it is for us to grab a seed that high, despite all the preseason hype.
Title contender
Certainly the road to a national title has fewer obstacles when a team’s play throughout the season is consistently strong. Izzo can do his magic in March, but he is likely to have to do it against 5 quality teams if the team plays at the level that finds us with a 4 seed or higher.
Izzo's 2nd game tourney coaching/scouting
should count for something. Izzo’s motto, “win me the first, and I’ll get you through the second” is pretty accurate.
I believe he’s 16-3 in the second games of each weekend. With his only losses against the juggernaut that was UNC in 2009, UNC in 2007 (which was played in North Carolina), and Texas in 2003 in the elite 8 (which was played in Texas). Both UNC teams won national championships.
—And as KJ just added above me, the last two runs could have ended much earlier. Although Korie made a great buzzer beater, someone had to lay out a game plan to play without Kalin.
"We were a little fat and sassy" -Tom Izzo
by itsalwaysunnyinEL on Dec 9, 2010 7:58 AM CST up reply actions
Practice, Practice, Practice
This team needs it bad. They just haven’t had much opportunity. The schedule in retrospect was just too much, not too dissimilar from an NBA sched. Those teams never practice. With the injuries and lost time over the summer and guys still hurt and not able to practice, it’s too much to overcome. I actually think Byrd’s injury is an underrated factor here. Not sure Coach Izzo foresaw being down so many guys when this schedule was constructed. Plus even in the event Byrd’s shooting prowess is overstated he looks like a pretty big kid that could make a difference in a number of ways.
After Saturday the tough part is over, there’ll be time to practice. If they don’t look like the team we thought they were by the time they step on the floor with Minny then feel free to let worry run amok.
Glad to see the return of Raging Izzo last night. I was starting to wonder if maybe the Cleveland experience followed by the football coach’s heart attack had changed him, mellowed him. Last night he got back in that bus and started driving over people. Good. Kid gloves not working.
BTW, Oakland just gave UI a pretty good run in Champaign before fading. Announcers described Benson as a man-child! Ruh roh…
We are who they thought we were.
So Izzo Is No Wizard
It just takes him the entire season to get his team to play up to the pre-season expectations.
And in 03/04 and 05/06 he wasn’t able to right the ship before March.
MSU isn’t the underdog that they’re made out to be every year come March. They just don’t perform all year long.
And the idea that the tough schedule prepares them for the NCAAs is probably garbage – they’re just playing the way they should have all year. Or it would translate to the Big Ten Tournament as well.
I sure wish that Tom would either A) get this figured out or B) stop scheduling annual national TV blowouts.
I'd say yes and no
yes, you’re right because it does take him all season to get a team playing like it should, and that’s very frustrating. I wish as much as anyone that we could win one of these big early season games. And they certainly aren’t the tournament underdog in our eyes, but nobody outside of State fans realize that Izzo coaches for the tournament, and a shining regular season record just doesn’t mean that much to him (even though he’s over a .700 career win percentage.).
However, I’ll have to disagree with you with your idea that these non-conference games are garbage. Every game we play against a team is like watching 1000 hours of tape on that team…that is to say, if we see them again in march, our scouting is that much easier. On top of that, Our team has now played against Duke’s tough man-to-man, Syracuse’ tough zone and played against multiple teams with guys who can go out and score 30 points against anyone. Now, not only does Izzo have some idea of what line-up he wants to use in all of these situations, but the players also have a clearer idea of what kind of on-court, non timeout adjustments to make against these tough situations. This is what limits turnovers, a clear plan.
That’s why we’re better in March, and that’s why Izzo is the best in March. It’s not like we just all of the sudden mesh in March for some reason, it’s through the constant preparation during the season. Something that I’ve been thinking about lately is the fact that we still don’t get the kind of recruits that schools like Duke and Syracuse and Uconn get. My point being that when no teams really have their chemistry down in the early part of the season, and individual players have to take over games a bit more, we suffer because we don’t have multiple first-rounders that can just go out there and ball and win games, we need a bit more time for things to come together.
And the Big Ten tourney, I really, truly think that if we’re not going to cruise to a win there, Izzo would just assume let one more big ten team get a Bid to the NCAAs than win an arbitrary tournament that doesn’t determine the big ten champion anyhow.
Agree except
the tourney isnt arbitrary. Its significantly helps your seeding and Izzo wants to win it.
good point
i guess i just want an excuse for us always coming out flat in it!
Perplexed by that especially
The same combination of confusing factors always appears in the pre-season. Freshmen generally not ready to contribute, turnovers, and sluggish starts to games. I understand why a freshman might feel a little overwhelmed playing at Duke and at Madison Square Garden. But I don’t understand why the core group of Lucas, Summers, Green and Roe consistently look like they haven’t spent played 90+ games together. It is early, but like KJ indicated, hard to see this team going deep with an 8 man rotation that includes Sherman and Thornton, who are two of my favorite guys out there.
I'm concerned but not panicing yet
A few things need to be kept in mind with this team. One is that we’ve played a challenging schedule and the Syracuse game was the only one where we looked overmatched. I think that was a function of fatigue and having an off night. They are good this year, but we’re not as bad as we played in that game.
That said, until the turnover issue gets fixed we’re not a national title contender. No team can turn it over on 23% plus of possessions and contend for a national title. Also – we were somewhat overrated this year when you consider our statistical profile last year and what we lost to graduation/departure.
On Lucas – I think he looked back close to 100% in our first few games because he was fresh. He’s struggling right now because his conditioning and strength in the injured leg are not back to 100% yet. With adequate rest and continued strength gains I think he’ll get back to normal.
The front court is a concern. I’m optimistic that Sherman can contribute meaningful minutes, although he really needs to work on his free throw shooting. Green is doing everything we could ask of him and then some. Roe has been something of a disappointment so far. His offensive rating, according to Statsheet.com, is no higher this year than it was his freshman year, and much lower than last year. Mostly this is because his offensive rebounding has fallen off a cliff. I expect his rebounding to improve because he has a solid track record. More dissappointing to me is that he still hasn’t developed any offensive skills other than rebounding and making dunks/layups. I think that, even with the injury situation, we could reasonably have expected him to be a scoring threat in the low post, and maybe even have some semblance of a face-the-basket game by this point. I haven’t seen him use any low post moves to speak of this year, and his jump shot still seems to be MIA. I’m rooting hard for the guy but it’s getting harder to believe he’ll ever provide much scoring punch at this point.
I’m a little concerned about relying on exceeding expected performance in the tournament every year. Ideally, we’d look like a top 10 team going into the thing, both in terms of national ranking and tempo-free statistical profile. That plus the Izzo factor makes a deep tournament run very likely. Relying mostly on the Izzo factor makes a miraculous win to advance a necessity.
Post problem
Curious to hear other opinions on this. I can’t think of a big man who has played under izzo and developed a significant low post game. Paul Davis, Suton, and Erazem Lorbek all had one or the semblance of one when they came to MSU. I could be wrong on this.
You're right
We’ve never had a guy who’s strongest element was low post. I think that’s the idea with Nix and Payne, but its just an idea right now.
Meh.
No one comes to college basketball with a polished low post game that’s D1 ready. Most bigs come in having pounded smaller opponents in high school. Try that in D1, the ball will be bounced off your face. Suton was very raw when he arrived on campus. Left with both a solid back to the basket and face-up game. Davis was a bit more of a face-up player. Hutson developed considerably. Not all bigs develop a post game. Some are primarily defenders (Naymick). Izzo’s record with bigs is mixed, but so is everyone’s with the possible exception of Georgetown. Also a factor here-Izzo’s sets are slanted to the perimeter and wing. Bigs in the MSU system, unless they develop a face-up game, aren’t often featured in the offense.
by rook34 on Dec 9, 2010 11:28 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Agree with this
Also I would point out that Suton had a redshirt season that also contributed to his development.
Davis came in with a prettty polished jump shot. He developed some ok post moves to compliment his shooting, but I dont’ remember him ever being a guy that they would just throw it in to and let him go to work on the block.
Izzo’s offense isn’t really designed that way.
Actually I think Sherman has shown some aptitude as a post scorer, as only a sophomore. I can’t recall anyone else having his variety of moves on the block at this stage in their career.
His problem is that he lacks strength and athleticism compared to some of those previous bigs. Against big, physical defenders, he has struggled to get position that lets him use his skills in the post. It’s also hurting him rebounding the ball.
I still think that while it would really help this team to have more of a post threat, it isn’t necessary. There is enough perimeter and wing talent for them to be effective without an offensive post up player.
But, their bigs have to do everything else well. For Roe, Nix, Sherman, Payne its really as simple as play defense and control the boards. If sherman can give us 8 points in the post I think that’s enough if they take care of the glass.
by trivialstuff16 on Dec 9, 2010 12:11 PM CST up reply actions
another take on it
I don’t necessarily agree, Randolph had a low post game his freshman year, Izzo helped a little with his defense, but he was gone to the NBA in the first round because he had that ability. Most of the good kids now don’t stay four years, so the ones who do end up developing is over 4 years of work. There is a long list of kids who were that good to begin with, and 30 years ago they stayed in school, now they are gone after a year. So what is left are project players, they have shown some ability, but they are going to need time to develop. My example is Payne, if he has a breakout season this year, he is probably gone. But then again, Sullinger of Ohio State is that type of player right now. My guess is he already gone to the NBA no matter what happens.
I don’t think Izzo’s system plans to have all the majority of sets going to wings, it is more of a design for what he has. Izzo’s strength in recruiting has been getting the best kids in the Midwest. So if he gets a big kid with the talent it is because one is there, he doesn’t go nationally and get one of the top kids in the country, at least not yet. So he has kids like, Davis, Sutton, Nix, and Payne-project low post players.
What he also gets are players like Morgan, Hutson, Smith and Sutton, who are not natural low post players, but have developed into the player the system needs. They at least give you a threat, right now this team doesn’t have a threat in the low post, and it is allowing everyone to focus on shutting down the wings. Roe could be this role player or more. Sure injuries have hampered his development, but remember he was on the all big-ten freshman team with the injuries. He also had Sutton and Morgan around him. He is going to need help down low to come out of this and vice versa. Nix could become the other threat, he needs to get his footwork together though, he is used to being slow and using his body against smaller players and that is not going to work at the level he is at now. But I think Sherman is going to be more like an A.J granger player, he can give some good minutes as long as he has some help. Payne really is the wild card here. He has the athleticism, but he doesn’t quite have the mind set yet, he is very lost out there. Izzo needs to figure that combination that will make other teams respect the low post and if not they will burn you. Right now they have not shown that threat to anyone to be respected. It is going to be a committee approach right now too, if Nix, Payne, Sherman and Roe can give you 25-30 points a game and some tough defense, then this team becomes very good again.
big development
I remember being tremendously disappointed in Paul Davis so many times… he was what, 6’11"? I don’t recall him taking it strong to the hoop once, ever. He had quite a few “agile” moves that were quite effective against other really big guys, but he never did quite figure out that, when you are matched up against some 6’4" forward, you are going to be more successful going strong to the basket. Watching him shoot that little fadeaway jump thing in these kind of situations always made be chuckle a bit.
I think the point is, we don’t really develop bigs, or at least the “post you up down low” type. Constantly we see players like Lorbek, Suton, Davis, etc who have a solid midrange game and are really very “smart” down low. I’m fine with this, by the way.
My fear is that Payne does not fit this mold at all. He fits the mold of Ibok or Anagonye, a tough bruiser with much raw physical ability. IMO Izzo and the coaching staff did not develop these guys at all while they were at MSU.I might also add Davis to this group, as he was really a beast and really could have learned a thing or two about using his great physical talents.
"It's a trap!"
in the 90's-2000's
we had a big man by committee who were tough and physical, Antino smith, Andre Hutson and Al Anagonye.
Then of course there was Zack Randolph, but one season only. Wonder if he had stayed what would have happened.
But since those guys, I would only put Sutton in as a good post player, but he was more of a threat to step out and shoot.
Izzo has been looking for someone to fill that role for a while.
Understandable
Yet I’ll be glued to the tv for every game no matter how pissed I get. I swear being a fan is a sickness
This team will be fine if/when Lucas gets healthy
He just doesn’t have the quick burst to create off of the dribble right now, and given the inconsistency of the interior play so far, Draymond can only do so much on the perimeter to create for teammates. Lucious has emerged as a great scoring guard but he’s still not a playmaking guard who makes those around him better.
I’ve been surprised at how clueless Appling and Payne have looked in the early going. I expected more, and I hope that it’s just a steep learning curve and that once they get over the hump they will be valuable contributors.
Bottom line – MSU really misses Raymar’s versatility and Lucas’ pre-injury explosiveness. This year’s team will ONLY be a Nat’l Championship if the latter issue takes care of itself.
Waiting for April.
Many moving parts
While obviously a healther, more aggressive Lucas helps this team tremendously, I don’t think its a cure all. Without any good interior players (honestly, we are a bad team on the interior right now), we are not going to be very good unless there is a group effort from the guys on the outside to slash to the hoop.
We can’t just sit back and hope that our long range threes go in like we are a Mid-Southwest-American Conference championship playing a 2 seed in the first round of the tourney.
"It's a trap!"
Do need Lucas to be better...
But a healthy Lucas won’t fix:
1) Inability to make free throws
2) Turnovers by the rest of the team
3) Rebounding
They simply have a long way to go as an entire team.
If Izzo insists on using a 10 man rotation....
After digesting the loss to Cuse over the past 48 hours, I’ve come up with a 10 man rotation that I would like to see:
PG-Lucas-Has been starting PG for 3 years, no reason to change now. Doesn’t have to be the 1st or 2nd option with this line up.
SG-Lucious-Clearly the best scorer on the team as of now, can hit the 3 and create his own shot. Creates a smallish back court but Korie can D up when he chooses.
SF-Summers-Played poorly as of late but free to run the wing in this line up similar to MoPete. Needs to play more up tempo to get easy baskets before jacking up fade away 3’s. A total confidence player so let’s get that going early
PF-Payne-The wild card in the line up. Doesn’t deserve to start based on performance but would be free to run up and down the floor like the deer that he is. Doesn’t have to worry about plays being run for him in, can do what he does best, run, jump, block, and hopefully rebound a bit better. Creates a match up problem for other teams too with his ability to stretch out to 17 feet or so.
C-Sherman-Only one on the team who gets a play called for him and executes assuming he can hold onto the ball. Is a key factor the 1st 5 mins of each half as they can establish an inside outside game early to free up the shooters.
2nd Five
PG-Appling-Doesn’t seem to know his role at the moment, this fixes it and he can be the scoring point guard who can facilitate for others as well
SG-Thornton/Kebler-Pick your poison here, a little better O vs a little better D. Let’s say it will depend on match ups game to game. This would’ve been nice to have Russell Byrd here but no sense in worrying about that 9 games into the year
SF-Green-Not much needs to be said here, will still get starter minutes but can help this bunch stay in the game and can be a true point forward type player. When he starts, he’s just one of the many who want their shots but coming of the bench helps solidify the 2nd team and should be a huge advantage over an opposing team’s first sub.
PF-Roe-Can worry about D and rebounding, seems to jittery at the start of games which leads to foul trouble more often then not.
C-Nix-My man, he actually played well against Syracuse forcing TO’s, running the floor well, and nearly shattering the backboard with a FT on his 3 pt play. He would certainly be able to bang with any 2nd stringer another team threw out and playing with Day Day and Appling would give him the opportunity to pick and roll like crazy. Plus him with Appling on the floor makes sense since they played in HS together.
So that’s my two cents, if we tried this line up I think it would be the best combo of talent, chemistry, athleticism and also provide balance in the process.
Let’s try to figure out the problems and help provide solutions, not rant and rave about how WE suck or how WE showed no effort. Unless you have used up your 4 years of Division I eligibility playing BIG 10 hoops, the constant criticism is just not warranted.
-The Clipboard
by Izzo's Clipboard on Dec 9, 2010 2:47 PM CST reply actions
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