Who's been dying to see those PORPAG numbers?

[This is not so much a real post as a blockquote/bulletpoint/numbers dump.  This is what you get for showing an interest in my rigged-up statistical inventions.  Appropriate given that SparanDan helped invent PORPAG.]

Original post on Points Over Replacement Per Adjusted Game (PORPAG) is here.  Big picture concept/caveats:

  • As a refresher, this stat is an attempt to measure the marginal points per game a player contributes to his team on offense above what a "replacement-level" player would provide.
  • Major caveats: (1) Basketball is a team, not an individual, sport and (2) this stat tells you nothing whatsoever about defense.

Technical stuff:

  • Pace factor is set at 64 possession/game--roughly the average through the first half of Big Ten play.
  • I left the "replacement-level" offensive rating at 88.0.
  • This stat is meant to measure cumulative, rather than average, offensive impact.  So missing time due to injury hurts you (Evan Turner).
  • This is conference-only data.  The conference schedule is, of course, unbalanced.
  • The table below includes all players who've played at least 40.0% of their teams' minutes in conference play.
  • Data pulled from StatSheet.com.  The Minute% numbers look a little glitchy for players that have missed time due to injury/etc.  I've attempted to correct any obvious errors.

Numbers after the jump:

Player Team OffRtg Poss% Min% PORPAG
Robbie Hummel Purdue 127.0 24.1 86.7 5.22
DeShawn Sims Michigan 113.6 28.2 89.2 4.13
John Shurna Northwestern 114.8 25.5 94.0 4.11
Demetri McCamey Illinois 114.7 25.0 89.6 3.83
Blake Hoffarber Minnesota 140.3 15.3 73.7 3.78
E`Twaun Moore Purdue 109.5 29.4 82.8 3.35
Evan Turner Ohio State 112.1 32.8 65.0 3.28
Kalin Lucas Michigan State 110.9 26.2 83.3 3.20
Draymond Green Michigan State 122.9 18.6 66.7 2.76
Jon Diebler Ohio State 117.3 15.7 92.5 2.72
Talor Battle Penn State 103.1 29.4 94.2 2.67
Manny Harris Michigan 106.2 28.8 79.2 2.65
William Buford Ohio State 107.1 25.0 86.7 2.65
Mike Tisdale Illinois 113.6 20.8 76.7 2.61
Jason Bohannon Wisconsin 115.3 15.5 95.3 2.58
Jordan Taylor Wisconsin 108.9 24.2 75.6 2.45
Keaton Nankivil Wisconsin 113.7 20.6 66.3 2.25
Raymar Morgan Michigan State 112.3 22.4 64.4 2.24
Trevon Hughes Wisconsin 102.0 28.4 87.7 2.23
Lawrence Westbrook Minnesota 108.2 24.6 66.8 2.12
David Jackson Penn State 113.6 16.0 79.2 2.08
D.J. Richardson Illinois 108.6 18.4 77.8 1.89
Jeremy Nash Northwestern 109.6 16.1 84.1 1.87
Drew Crawford Northwestern 103.0 23.5 78.4 1.77
David Lighty Ohio State 103.5 19.7 88.6 1.73
Durrell Summers Michigan State 107.3 20.2 68.9 1.71
Chris Babb Penn State 108.2 16.6 77.8 1.67
Michael Thompson Northwestern 104.6 16.4 94.2 1.64
Aaron Fuller Iowa 101.0 23.9 75.6 1.50
Damian Johnson Minnesota 106.3 20.5 60.8 1.46
Zack Novak Michigan 105.3 14.8 84.7 1.39
JaJuan Johnson Purdue 99.7 22.7 80.6 1.37
Bill Cole Illinois 120.1 10.7 61.4 1.35
Ralph Sampson III Minnesota 112.8 16.1 52.6 1.35
Verdell Jones III Indiana 95.8 30.7 85.2 1.31
Jordan Hulls Indiana 105.7 14.3 76.0 1.23
Chris Kramer Purdue 111.3 11.5 70.3 1.20
Luke Mirkovic Northwestern 100.7 21.7 64.7 1.14
Delvon Roe Michigan State 104.2 20.6 48.3 1.03
Jarryd Cole Iowa 103.9 16.9 55.3 0.95
Chris Allen Michigan State 98.8 17.1 71.4 0.84
Devan Dumes Indiana 97.9 25.9 48.6 0.80
Devoe Joseph Minnesota 95.4 21.9 53.2 0.55
Al Nolen Minnesota 97.5 19.9 41.9 0.51
Dallas Lauderdale Ohio State 96.5 13.7 65.0 0.48
Laval Lucas-Perry Michigan 96.6 13.8 60.6 0.46
Mike Davis Illinois 93.3 18.2 71.5 0.44
Christian Watford Indiana 90.7 25.5 75.1 0.33
Kelsey Barlow Purdue 94.1 17.9 40.3 0.28
Stu Douglass Michigan 91.4 15.3 81.7 0.27
Keaton Grant Purdue 91.9 18.7 48.6 0.22
Korie Lucious Michigan State 88.9 15.5 50.8 0.04
Eric May Iowa 88.3 18.6 87.5 0.03
Jeff Brooks Penn State 88.3 19.9 47.7 0.02
Darius Morris Michigan 84.0 14.5 56.1 (0.21)
Tim Jarmusz Wisconsin 76.9 6.9 62.7 (0.31)
Tom Pritchard Indiana 77.3 9.9 53.2 (0.36)
Andrew Jones III Penn State 75.5 14.9 50.4 (0.60)
Matt Gatens Iowa 82.8 22.3 90.3 (0.67)
Bill Edwards Penn State 76.8 21.3 51.2 (0.78)
Jeremiah Rivers Indiana 72.4 16.8 74.8 (1.26)
Cully Payne Iowa 69.9 23.4 76.4 (2.06)

 

Observations:

  • My major complaint (to myself) about PORPAG is that it over-rewards 3-point shooting.  Hoffarber and Diebler both look out of place.
  • Remove those two guys, and the top ten players on the list look like a pretty solid set of candidates for first- and second-team all-conference honors: Hummel, Sims, Shurna, McCamey, Moore, Turner, Lucas, Green, Battle, Harris.  No obvious candidates to jump into the top ten based on defensive performance.
  • Robbie Hummel is your leader at the turn for conference player of the year.  Has improved almost all his offensive numbers over last season, despite taking a larger role in the offense.
  • Evan Turner will likely climb toward/to the top as he picks up more minutes played down the stretch, though.
  • DeShawn Sims' numbers are pretty amazing for a guy playing alone inside amongst a group of teammates who can't hit 3-pointers.
  • John Shurna's numbers are even more impressive in light of how hard Northwestern's schedule has been to date.
  • Demetri McCamey's finally playing up to his potential, although he's still been somewhat up and down (3 games in single digits scoring).
  • If you factor in defense, you can make an argument that, statistically speaking, Draymond Green (#2 in the league in DefReb%) has actually been MSU's most valuable player to date.  Kalin Lucas has been pretty good, too: right on pace with his conference-only PORPAG figure of 3.10 from last season (which was perhaps a bit of a down year for offensive stars).
  • Bottom 6 includes 2 each from Iowa, Penn State, and Indiana.
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