Who's been dying to see those PORPAG numbers?
[This is not so much a real post as a blockquote/bulletpoint/numbers dump. This is what you get for showing an interest in my rigged-up statistical inventions. Appropriate given that SparanDan helped invent PORPAG.]
Original post on Points Over Replacement Per Adjusted Game (PORPAG) is here. Big picture concept/caveats:
- As a refresher, this stat is an attempt to measure the marginal points per game a player contributes to his team on offense above what a "replacement-level" player would provide.
- Major caveats: (1) Basketball is a team, not an individual, sport and (2) this stat tells you nothing whatsoever about defense.
Technical stuff:
- Pace factor is set at 64 possession/game--roughly the average through the first half of Big Ten play.
- I left the "replacement-level" offensive rating at 88.0.
- This stat is meant to measure cumulative, rather than average, offensive impact. So missing time due to injury hurts you (Evan Turner).
- This is conference-only data. The conference schedule is, of course, unbalanced.
- The table below includes all players who've played at least 40.0% of their teams' minutes in conference play.
- Data pulled from StatSheet.com. The Minute% numbers look a little glitchy for players that have missed time due to injury/etc. I've attempted to correct any obvious errors.
Numbers after the jump:
| Player | Team | OffRtg | Poss% | Min% | PORPAG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Hummel | Purdue | 127.0 | 24.1 | 86.7 | 5.22 |
| DeShawn Sims | Michigan | 113.6 | 28.2 | 89.2 | 4.13 |
| John Shurna | Northwestern | 114.8 | 25.5 | 94.0 | 4.11 |
| Demetri McCamey | Illinois | 114.7 | 25.0 | 89.6 | 3.83 |
| Blake Hoffarber | Minnesota | 140.3 | 15.3 | 73.7 | 3.78 |
| E`Twaun Moore | Purdue | 109.5 | 29.4 | 82.8 | 3.35 |
| Evan Turner | Ohio State | 112.1 | 32.8 | 65.0 | 3.28 |
| Kalin Lucas | Michigan State | 110.9 | 26.2 | 83.3 | 3.20 |
| Draymond Green | Michigan State | 122.9 | 18.6 | 66.7 | 2.76 |
| Jon Diebler | Ohio State | 117.3 | 15.7 | 92.5 | 2.72 |
| Talor Battle | Penn State | 103.1 | 29.4 | 94.2 | 2.67 |
| Manny Harris | Michigan | 106.2 | 28.8 | 79.2 | 2.65 |
| William Buford | Ohio State | 107.1 | 25.0 | 86.7 | 2.65 |
| Mike Tisdale | Illinois | 113.6 | 20.8 | 76.7 | 2.61 |
| Jason Bohannon | Wisconsin | 115.3 | 15.5 | 95.3 | 2.58 |
| Jordan Taylor | Wisconsin | 108.9 | 24.2 | 75.6 | 2.45 |
| Keaton Nankivil | Wisconsin | 113.7 | 20.6 | 66.3 | 2.25 |
| Raymar Morgan | Michigan State | 112.3 | 22.4 | 64.4 | 2.24 |
| Trevon Hughes | Wisconsin | 102.0 | 28.4 | 87.7 | 2.23 |
| Lawrence Westbrook | Minnesota | 108.2 | 24.6 | 66.8 | 2.12 |
| David Jackson | Penn State | 113.6 | 16.0 | 79.2 | 2.08 |
| D.J. Richardson | Illinois | 108.6 | 18.4 | 77.8 | 1.89 |
| Jeremy Nash | Northwestern | 109.6 | 16.1 | 84.1 | 1.87 |
| Drew Crawford | Northwestern | 103.0 | 23.5 | 78.4 | 1.77 |
| David Lighty | Ohio State | 103.5 | 19.7 | 88.6 | 1.73 |
| Durrell Summers | Michigan State | 107.3 | 20.2 | 68.9 | 1.71 |
| Chris Babb | Penn State | 108.2 | 16.6 | 77.8 | 1.67 |
| Michael Thompson | Northwestern | 104.6 | 16.4 | 94.2 | 1.64 |
| Aaron Fuller | Iowa | 101.0 | 23.9 | 75.6 | 1.50 |
| Damian Johnson | Minnesota | 106.3 | 20.5 | 60.8 | 1.46 |
| Zack Novak | Michigan | 105.3 | 14.8 | 84.7 | 1.39 |
| JaJuan Johnson | Purdue | 99.7 | 22.7 | 80.6 | 1.37 |
| Bill Cole | Illinois | 120.1 | 10.7 | 61.4 | 1.35 |
| Ralph Sampson III | Minnesota | 112.8 | 16.1 | 52.6 | 1.35 |
| Verdell Jones III | Indiana | 95.8 | 30.7 | 85.2 | 1.31 |
| Jordan Hulls | Indiana | 105.7 | 14.3 | 76.0 | 1.23 |
| Chris Kramer | Purdue | 111.3 | 11.5 | 70.3 | 1.20 |
| Luke Mirkovic | Northwestern | 100.7 | 21.7 | 64.7 | 1.14 |
| Delvon Roe | Michigan State | 104.2 | 20.6 | 48.3 | 1.03 |
| Jarryd Cole | Iowa | 103.9 | 16.9 | 55.3 | 0.95 |
| Chris Allen | Michigan State | 98.8 | 17.1 | 71.4 | 0.84 |
| Devan Dumes | Indiana | 97.9 | 25.9 | 48.6 | 0.80 |
| Devoe Joseph | Minnesota | 95.4 | 21.9 | 53.2 | 0.55 |
| Al Nolen | Minnesota | 97.5 | 19.9 | 41.9 | 0.51 |
| Dallas Lauderdale | Ohio State | 96.5 | 13.7 | 65.0 | 0.48 |
| Laval Lucas-Perry | Michigan | 96.6 | 13.8 | 60.6 | 0.46 |
| Mike Davis | Illinois | 93.3 | 18.2 | 71.5 | 0.44 |
| Christian Watford | Indiana | 90.7 | 25.5 | 75.1 | 0.33 |
| Kelsey Barlow | Purdue | 94.1 | 17.9 | 40.3 | 0.28 |
| Stu Douglass | Michigan | 91.4 | 15.3 | 81.7 | 0.27 |
| Keaton Grant | Purdue | 91.9 | 18.7 | 48.6 | 0.22 |
| Korie Lucious | Michigan State | 88.9 | 15.5 | 50.8 | 0.04 |
| Eric May | Iowa | 88.3 | 18.6 | 87.5 | 0.03 |
| Jeff Brooks | Penn State | 88.3 | 19.9 | 47.7 | 0.02 |
| Darius Morris | Michigan | 84.0 | 14.5 | 56.1 | (0.21) |
| Tim Jarmusz | Wisconsin | 76.9 | 6.9 | 62.7 | (0.31) |
| Tom Pritchard | Indiana | 77.3 | 9.9 | 53.2 | (0.36) |
| Andrew Jones III | Penn State | 75.5 | 14.9 | 50.4 | (0.60) |
| Matt Gatens | Iowa | 82.8 | 22.3 | 90.3 | (0.67) |
| Bill Edwards | Penn State | 76.8 | 21.3 | 51.2 | (0.78) |
| Jeremiah Rivers | Indiana | 72.4 | 16.8 | 74.8 | (1.26) |
| Cully Payne | Iowa | 69.9 | 23.4 | 76.4 | (2.06) |
Observations:
- My major complaint (to myself) about PORPAG is that it over-rewards 3-point shooting. Hoffarber and Diebler both look out of place.
- Remove those two guys, and the top ten players on the list look like a pretty solid set of candidates for first- and second-team all-conference honors: Hummel, Sims, Shurna, McCamey, Moore, Turner, Lucas, Green, Battle, Harris. No obvious candidates to jump into the top ten based on defensive performance.
- Robbie Hummel is your leader at the turn for conference player of the year. Has improved almost all his offensive numbers over last season, despite taking a larger role in the offense.
- Evan Turner will likely climb toward/to the top as he picks up more minutes played down the stretch, though.
- DeShawn Sims' numbers are pretty amazing for a guy playing alone inside amongst a group of teammates who can't hit 3-pointers.
- John Shurna's numbers are even more impressive in light of how hard Northwestern's schedule has been to date.
- Demetri McCamey's finally playing up to his potential, although he's still been somewhat up and down (3 games in single digits scoring).
- If you factor in defense, you can make an argument that, statistically speaking, Draymond Green (#2 in the league in DefReb%) has actually been MSU's most valuable player to date. Kalin Lucas has been pretty good, too: right on pace with his conference-only PORPAG figure of 3.10 from last season (which was perhaps a bit of a down year for offensive stars).
- Bottom 6 includes 2 each from Iowa, Penn State, and Indiana.
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Numbers bear what intuition would say it does
Sims is the real star of that Michigan team. I really wish he had come here. But since he didn’t I’ll enjoy his loss last Tuesday.
Light a man a fire, he'll stay warm for a day.
Light a man afire, he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
Green's play has been outstanding
I’m not sure how (or why) Roe is getting a higher possession percentage. I think that stat controls for playing time so coming off the bench and playing fewer minutes overall should not affect it.
Mostly free throw rate
Also turns it over slightly more, which bumps up Poss%.
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Feb 2, 2010 9:09 AM CST up reply actions
Not too many surprises actually,
Actually KJ, I have my own stat that tracks pretty well with this. It’s called the ‘guys whose names I have to remember after watching them play’ stat. Not all scientifical or math-y, like your stuff, but I’d have Sims, Harris and Novak in there from UM, Lucas and Dancing Bear from MSU, and Turner from OSU in there. The other dudes, I haven’t seen and so don’t care. But if I saw them, yeah, their names would be remembered too.

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