Detour
by KJ@theonlycolors on Feb 17, 2010 8:04 PM CST
in Michigan State Spartans Basketball
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PrintThe road to a Big Ten title now runs straight through West Lafeyette.
Foolproof two-step plan for Michigan State to win at least a share of the Big Ten title:
1) Win at least 2 of 3 remaining home games.
2) Beat Purdue on the road.
The first part of that plan looks quite a bit more plausible than the second.
Upside from tonight's result in Columbus: We won't have to argue whether sharing the Big Ten title with a team we lost to twice devalues the honor. (For my part, I could have been cool with it. I like banners.)
Purdue does have five games remaining, so it's not out of the question they could still drop one to someone besides MSU (in which case the arguably-devalued-shared-title scenario would reemerge). Their next two games (home to Illinois and at Minnesota) are better upset candidates than the final two games (home to Indiana, at Penn State), so we'll have a good idea where things stand when MSU heads to West Lafayette (in between those two sets of game).
Oh and, hey, at the moment we're still in first place by ourselves:
| Standings | Conference | Overall | |||||
| W | L | GB | PCT | W | L | PCT | |
| 11 | 3 | - | .786 | 21 | 6 | .778 | |
| 10 | 3 | ½ | .769 | 22 | 3 | .880 | |
| 10 | 4 | 1 | .714 | 20 | 7 | .741 | |
| 9 | 4 | 1½ | .692 | 17 | 9 | .654 | |
| 9 | 4 | 1½ | .692 | 19 | 6 | .760 | |
| 6 | 7 | 4½ | .462 | 17 | 8 | .680 | |
| 6 | 7 | 4½ | .462 | 13 | 12 | .520 | |
| 5 | 7 | 5 | .417 | 14 | 10 | .583 | |
| 3 | 10 | 7½ | .231 | 9 | 16 | .360 | |
| 3 | 11 | 8 | .214 | 9 | 18 | .333 | |
| 0 | 12 | 10 | .000 | 8 | 16 | .333 | |
Keeping (or at least sharing) that top spot on the ladder through the next three weeks just got substantially tougher.
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As Tom Izzo would say:
We want to go in through the front door, not the back.
Word
I know, I know, KJ, I seem to be nearly alone in this but it’s time to step up. If not now, when? I look at this as a great opportunity for MSU. They can prove beyond a doubt that they are Big Ten Champions by winning out. It’ll be great to see how they respond, how hungry, focused the team is. And honestly, I like the team’s chances. I fully believe that MSU at 100% is better than Purdue at 100% even at Purdue. Time to make that game happen.
If it happens, it will indeed be sweeter
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Feb 17, 2010 8:20 PM CST up reply actions
true quote by Izzo?
that’s fantastic, if it is.
Purdue put the pressure on us tonight, but I think I agree: I’d rather beat them to get the title, than lose to them twice and share it somehow.
game on.
I believe it's what he said last year
when we could have won the title without beating Purdue at the Breslin Center.
Concept
I simply cannot understand the issue with “backing into” a title. Best record is best record… simply put. Had Purdue lost to OSU and one more game on their schedule, yet beaten us twice, I would have no problem declaring us Big Ten Champions.
Not to get all tRCMB about this but
If you’re talking winning by one game over a team who beat you twice, that’s a slightly different dynamic than ending in a tie.
I guess part of it is about math vs. perception. To me, merely a share of the best record is not as satisfying as being able to make the claim that your team was the best in the league and therefore are the champions (small ‘c’). I want say “Big Ten Regular Season Champions and best team in the league.” MSU wins out and that claim is on solid ground. Lose to Purdue twice and finish tied with them and you’re left saying only the first part with credibility. Banners are great but part of it is merely bragging rights. Who is the best and what evidence can you bring? Beat Purdue and finish a game ahead, we can make the case for MSU. Fail in this and we might be Big Ten Champions but we’re the unequivocal second best team. Until we win the National Championship and vanquish the Boilermakers in the Final Four, of course.
It’s personal preference. I’m not saying it should mean something to everybody by some kind of universal truth or appeal to Hegelian Absolute Spirit.
It's fairly likely...
That Purdue’s just the best team in the league this regular season.
We’ve still got a chance. But we have a rough one on Sunday before anyone should be thinking about that.
Congrats to the Boilers on a well-earned win. Congrats to Kramer for making a big play that didn’t involve fouling anyone.
PSU finally wins
and probably severely hurts Northwestern’s hopes of getting into the NCAA this year.
NW Needs to win the BTT...
pretty sure that’s the only way they’re in after going through the non-conference with a super weak SOS, 1 marquee win – and two absolutely abysmal late-season losses.
I think NW could still get in
with a win in Madison and winning the rest of their regular season games. Losing to PSU is a bad loss, but a good win like one in Madison is what they really need on their resume. They’d still have to win a game or two in the BTT but I’m not sure a title game run would be necessary, depending on who they face in the first round (if they get another quality win then that might seal it). I don’t forsee them winning in Madison though, and without that, they would need a title run to get it.
by TheCrestedHelm on Feb 18, 2010 7:42 AM CST up reply actions
Out
CBS RPI Breakdown of Northwestern.
4-7 vs. Top 100 Teams
Quality wins: Purdue (RPI 9), Illinois (RPI 69), Notre Dame (RPI 77), Minnesota (RPI 80)
Bad losses: Iowa (RPI 186), Penn St (RPI 207)
Even if they win out, it only adds one more win to their resume (albeit a good one).
Can’t imagine they make the tournament unless they win the Big Ten tournament.
Well I was thinking a BTT win
Would get them at least one more quality win, plus if they won their second game that would be 2. That would put them at 24 and 8 and 11 and 8 in the conference regular season.
I think a couple of our teams have gotten in with an arguably worse resume (most notably 2003-04 when we were 17-10 at the end of the regular season and lost in the second round of the BTT, with nary a high quality win on our resume). I think the selection committee might give them the benefit of the doubt if they are close just to end their streak. But I’m no expert on how the RPI is used so maybe their resume just doesn’t stack up.
by TheCrestedHelm on Feb 18, 2010 1:05 PM CST up reply actions
In that example, you could argue they are a bubble team… I could see that. Regarding giving them the benefit of the down, the NCAA mock committee article on ESPN stated that the committee should not select a team like Northwestern just to end their streak. I really hope they make it, but not at the cost of any Michigan State gain.
I agree the committee should not accept them unless they deserve it
but given two teams with equivalent resumes, if one is Northwestern I would not have a problem giving them the tiebreaker based on the streak, and I think the committee might do that. I hope it doesn’t come at our expense (i.e. I hope we aren’t one of those quality wins in the BTT). Given that they lost at home to Penn State it’s probably a moot point – if you can’t beat PSU at home this year you’re not going into Madison and coming out with a W.
by TheCrestedHelm on Feb 19, 2010 8:41 AM CST up reply actions
We do need to take care of business at home first
Hopefully OSU will be gassed – they have no depth and I have to believe their starters may be wearing down at this point in the season.
Hopefully we can turn the tables on Painter and come up with a new wrinkle during the extra prep time to exploit their weaknesses, the way they seemed to do in the first game to get good look after good look. Our D will have to improve if we want to come out of West Lafayette with a win.
I’d like a banner any way I can get it, but at this point the only way looks to be a win at Purdue, unless they drop another “should win” game.
Something to prove
Winning at Purdue is a challenging environment, but at this point in the season, it is time for the Spartans to find a way to win. The game will have a tournament-like atmosphere, and what better way to prepare for the Big Dance than by having to dig deep against a quality opponent. We don’t really have what I’d consider a signature win this year. A win against Purdue would qualify. We will have a week to prepare for them, so it is a matter of executing a plan and playing to our potential.
Regrettably (only in the sense of missing MSU hoops) I’ll be on one of those undisclosed Caribbean islands for that game and the run to the the Sweet Sixteen, so I’m hoping there are still games to watch when I return. Taking care of OSU an Purdue would set us up for an advantageous seed that would increase the likelihood of such a run.
You poor man!
But that’s what I’m saying. The personal ad would look like: “Experienced, successful G&W basketball team seeks signature wins for Big Ten Championships. Industrial steelworkers preferred.”
by intrpdtrvlr on Feb 18, 2010 11:13 AM CST up reply actions
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