The Only Colors: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: The Pros and Cons of an 18-game NFL Schedule

The 2010 Big Ten Basketball Season in Groovy Chart Form

We had some fun with this a couple years ago, so I thought I'd take another crack at it.  Bulleted explanation/caveats:

  • The charts below show game-by-game offensive and defensive efficiency numbers for each Big Ten team in conference play this year.  (Efficiency is points scored/allowed per 100 possessions.)
  • The thinner lines in the graphs are polynomial trendlines of the third order.  They show trends for the teams' performances on each end of the court, allowing for two peaks/valleys (i.e., trend reversals) over the 18 games.
  • The graphs have to be interpreted very carefully due to the nature of contemporary Big Ten scheduling--bunching up of home/away games or two games vs. a good/bad opponent in a short span.  I've included 2-letter opponent abbreviations for reference.
  • Finally, 18 games is not a reliable sample for the trendlines to have statistical significance.

Still, I think the charts help tell the story of each team's conference season.  Plus they're just cool for gazing at.  Right?

Here's MSU's chart:

Image008_medium

Outside of spikes for the two Northwestern games and the Indiana game and the slugfest in West Lafayette, the offense was actually fairly consistent (but not highly efficient) over the course of the season.  The defense improved after the midseason open-shot-fest, although it would have been hard not to.  Funny how Kalin Lucas' injury appears to have impacted the defense more than the offense.

After the jump, we'll run through the other 10 teams in the league, in ascending order of Big Ten Tournament seeding.

Star-divide

Image001_medium

I call this one "Evan Turner makes a difference--a really big difference."  The Buckeyes are scoring very efficiently and playing consistent defense right now, but that's basically been true over the last 14 games.

Image003_medium

Outside of the basement-level offensive output against MSU, the Robbie Hummel injury doesn't really show up here.  But that's a function of playing two of the three worst teams in the league in the final two games.

Image007_medium

Exhibit B as to why the fourth-place Badgers may, in fact, be the favorites to win the conference tournament.  Offense steadily improved over the course of the season; Jon Leuer's return from his wrist injury for the final five games helped.  Defense is surprisingly inconsistent (but mostly good).

Image009_medium

Decidedly average team most of the season--up until the end, when they tanked on both sides of the ball.  Backloaded schedule is a major factor there.

Image011_medium

Slightly below average team for the first half of the season.  Showed some life with blowout wins vs. Wisconsin and Indiana (the latter more impressive than the former, obviously).  Back-to-back blowouts of inverse directions to end the regular season make for an inelegant-looking graph.

Image013_medium

Defensive numbers form what looks like the output from a heart rate monitor--nearly perfect up-and-down pattern between a well-defined range of 100 and 120 (i.e., not good).  Doesn't correlate with home/away games, either.  Offense improved some over the course of the year; Wildcats posted eFG% of at least 50% in all of their final 9 games.

Image018_medium

On average, this was an average team.  But the averageness was the net result of very inconsistent play on both ends of the court.  Offense looks pretty dismal if you take the two Minnesota games out--not that Minnesota is a complete defensive pushover; they just apparently have no idea how to guard Manny Harris (42 points) or DeShawn Sims (50 points).

Image017_medium

Defense went from average to very, very bad as season progressed.  Offense looked decent for a bit there, but two games against Northwestern in a four-game stretch tends to do that.

Image022_medium

If not for that closing win against Northwestern, the simplest interpretation of this graph would be that the team completely quit on its coach.  On the other hand, you have to give the Hoosiers for playing like a semi-competitive team for the six-game stretch to start the conference season on the heels of losing Maurice Creek.

Image021_medium

I told you the Nittany Lions were the most dangerous conference tournament #11 seed in the country.  The trendlines say this is a (slightly) above average Big Ten team at the moment.  Offense has improved markedly since the beginning of the year, as Talor Battle's supporting cast has stepped up.  Defense is still below average, but not to a last-in-the-conference degree.

0 recs  |  Comment 4 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

That is a freakishly huge gap at the end of Wisconsin's graph

Then again, getting Iowa and Indiana back-to-back will help that.

by SpartanDan on Mar 10, 2010 11:17 PM CST reply actions  

OSU with Turner looks like the most consistent high performer

You’ve got to hand it to Wisconsin, as much as I hate to say it. They lost their only true post presence for a long stretch and just kept chugging. Their improvement over the course of the season is impressive.

We definitely lacked consistency on D. The schedule played a part but we just were not good (even against less than stellar teams) for a while there during the heart of the season. The improvement toward the end of the season is encouraging – hopefully that will carry over for the rest of the year.

I think you can see Purdue missing Hummel in the trend line – their efficiencies merge toward the end of the season, and I don’t think PSU looks that good on offense if Hummel is in the game.

by TheCrestedHelm on Mar 11, 2010 7:06 AM CST reply actions  

Rearranging the x axis may be interesting

If I had the data, time and motivation, it would be interesting to rearrange the x axis for conference play and group it by final conference standing. Maybe that would help adjust for the varying quality/order of bigten opponents faced throughout the season? Either that or divide the efficiency by the rating of the team to correct for it.

Nonetheless, this is always a fun way to see which teams seem to be peaking near tourney time

by driveonparkways on Mar 11, 2010 11:25 AM CST reply actions  

I tried doing the latter for MSU (dividing by in-conference efficiency of opponent)

Ours looks remarkably similar, at least in the trendlines. Defense starts out a little flatter, and the later crossover point occurs further back (around PSU1 instead of PUR1). Remarkable that our offense (both in raw and adjusted terms) zig-zagged so much – only twice out of 16 chances did it move in the same direction two consecutive games.

Would be an interesting exercise to see how much it affects the others.

by SpartanDan on Mar 11, 2010 9:23 PM CST up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

A Michigan State basketball and football blog community
Start posting about the Spartans »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Small
Recruiting data
Adorno5_small
Mike Shaw and 2011 Basketball Recruiting Loose Ends
State_small
Recruiting Tidbits
Small
Donavon Clark!
Small
Personal expectations when an MSU football schedule is announced.
Delvonduck_small
UM's NCAA Allegations, As Told Through "The Office"
Small
Big Ten Divisions
Small
Recruit #14 Jack Allen
Small
South Carolina-MSU is part of ESPN's 24 hour hoops marathon
State_small
Positional Revisionism and MSU Basketball

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

SBNation.com Recent Stories

Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany speaks in Lincoln, Neb., Friday, June 11, 2010, in front of a Big Ten and a Nebraska backdrop. Nebraska made it official Friday and applied for membership in the Big Ten Conference, a potentially crippling blow to the Big 12 and the biggest move yet in an off season overhaul that will leave college sports looking much different by this time next year.(AP Photo/Nati Harnik) +5 updates

Big Ten Announces Conference Divisions For 2011

FILE - In this Sept. 24, 2009 photo, South Carolina's head coach Steve Spurrier stands with his quarterback Stephen Garcia (5) before the start of their NCAA college football game against Mississippi at Williams Brice Stadium in Columbia, S.C.    A year ago, first-time postseason starter Stephen Garcia got chewed out by South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier for playing video games the night before the Outback Bowl game. These days, Garcia putting all his focus where it counts most _ on the Gamecocks.  (AP Photo/Mary Ann Chastain, File)

College Football Kickoff: 2010 Season Gets Underway With Southern Mississippi At South Carolina

Pittsburgh running back Dion Lewis (28) runs with the ball during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game against Rutgers Friday, Oct. 16, 2009, in Piscataway, N.J.  Lewis ran for 180 yards and two touchdowns and Pittsburgh ended four years of frustration against Rutgers with a 24-17 victory on Friday night. (AP Photo/Mel Evans) +1 updates

College Football Kickoff: Utah Plays Host To No. 15 Pittsburgh Thursday Night

More from SBNation.com >


Managers

Onlycolors-md_small KJ@theonlycolors

Sbnation2_small Pete Rossman

Woodward_small LVS

Contributors

Square_sun_small Steve Hendershot

Adorno5_small intrpdtrvlr

Oldspartan_small Rob Visconti