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Around SBN: College Football Preseason Top 25 Rankings

Your First Round Opponent: The New Mexico State Aggies

New_mexico_ref_2001_medium

I bet those guys voted for the Gadsden Purchase.

Let's do this bullet-style:

  • 22-11 (11-5).  WAC tournament champions; 2nd place in the regular season, behind Utah State.  Ranked 115 nationally by KenPom.
  • 3-5 against other NCAA Tournament teams: 11/13 lost to St. Mary's, 100-68; 11/17 lost to New Mexico, 97-87; 12/1 lost to UTEP, 79-58; 12/5 lost to New Mexico, 75-58; 12/13 beat UTEP, 87-80; 1/2 beat Utah St., 55-52; 3/6 lost to Utah St., 81-63; 3/13 beat Utah St., 69-63.  Also was manhandled by a terrible UCLA team, 100-68.
  • Four factors analysis: 53.4 eFG (26th nationally), 17.9 TO% (48th), 30.4 OR% (254th), 38.0 FTA/FGA (160th).
  • They're good offensively (110.5 efficiency, 46th).  They do this by shooting a ton of 3s (38.7 3PA/FGA, 49th highest), and they shoot them well -- 37.4%; they're also above-average from the line (70.1 FT%, 138th).  They also like to play fast, as their adjusted tempo, 71.8, is 23rd nationally.
  • Happily, they're, uh, not so good on defense (104.1 efficiency, 222nd). They: 1) allow opposing teams a 51.3% eFG, on average (277th), 2) don't force many turnovers (18.7%, 267th), and 3) allow opponents to rebound a ton of their misses (34.6%, 261st).
  • They rely heavily on their starters (22.9% bench minutes, 321st), and 3 of their starters average more than 14 points per game: guard Jahmar Young (20.5 ppg, 54.1% eFG), guard Jonathan Gibson (17.5 ppg, 56.8% eFG), and forward Troy Gillenwater (14.4 ppg, 56.3% eFG).  The other starters are forward Wendell McKines (10.8 ppg, 52.4% eFG) and center Hamidu Rahman (10.4 ppg, 56.3 eFG).
  • New Mexico State last appeared in the tournament in 2007, when they were a 13 seed and were bounced in the first round by Texas, 79-67.

The rebounding numbers should make you smile, as State should have a major, major, major advantage on the boards.  Of course, a team that shoots as many threes as the Aggies do -- and shoots them well, as they also do -- is always dangerous.  (The Aggies' offensive statistical profile surely makes John Beilein swoon.)

Still, the consensus seems to be that MSU might have dodged a bullet with this matchup, and that UTEP and Cornell are empirically better teams.  (Of course, that's made up for by the Midwest bracket placement; it's the most difficult region by a country mile.)  KenPom's computer doesn't see this as a close game at all, and predicts an 83-71 Spartan victory.  And, if you need more reasons for optimism, let's go to the man himself:

Kenpom_jail_bigger_medium kenpomeroy: Congrats to Michigan State for a relative walkover in a 5/12 game.

. . . and TAFKATBTW:

Usethisone_bigger_mediumJohnGasaway: Huge disparity in 5-seed situations. Michigan St. won the lottery. Temple's underseeded (duh). Butler and TX A&M have *very* tough games.

It's March again.  Here we go.

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When I made my comment in the Selection Sunday thread that MSU would be a popular pick for a 5-12 upset, I didn’t know anything about NMS or the other 12s. BUT, I think it’s still an accurate observation as media commentary rather than basketball analysis. And, in fact, Digger brought it up (of course) as soon as the bracket came out. I am glad we didn’t get Cornell or UTEP, though, which are both very underrated teams. Cornell came within a whisker of beating Kansas at Kansas and has been tough all year. MSU this year is the type of team that gets picked to go down: highly rated early but disappointing record, questionable chemistry and problems down the stretch.

by Con-T on Mar 14, 2010 9:35 PM CDT reply actions  

Rexrode says not to pay attention to any stats on this team...

Apparently they have two really good players that make them a completely different team that joined in December and February:

http://noise.typepad.com/hey_joe/2010/03/the-basics.html

“The Aggies are fast, athletic and high-scoring, with six guys shooting above 33 percent from long range. And you may as well ignore everything this team did in the first half of the season. Athletic forwards Troy Gillenwater (6-8, 234, 14.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg) and Wendell McKines (6-6, 224, 10.8 ppg, 9.9 rpg) joined the team in February and December, respectively, after they gained academic eligibility. This is a totally different team with those two, and a huge reason the Aggies won the WAC tourney.”

by MooTheKow on Mar 15, 2010 5:49 AM CDT reply actions  

Yeah, I saw that article after I wrote this one.

FWIW, NMSU was 9-3 from February on. Dropped two games to Fresno St., Nevada, and Utah St., but they avenged the last two losses in the WAC tournament. Nevada and Utah St. are both decent teams (96 and 20, respectively in KenPom), but Fresno’s not so great (185).

by LVS on Mar 15, 2010 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

Beware the Gadsden Purchase...

/BHGP’d

Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.

by Kyle McCann't on Mar 15, 2010 1:49 PM CDT reply actions  

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