Preview: Michigan State vs. Maryland

by LVS on Mar 21, 2010 2:12 AM CDT in Michigan State Spartans Basketball Comment 16 comments

Your MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. the MARYLAND TERRAPINS
SECOND ROUND, NCAA TOURNAMENT
SPOKANE VETERANS MEMORIAL ARENA, SPOKANE, WASHINGTON
2:40 P.M. (ET), SUNDAY
TV: CBS (Tim Brando and Mike Gminski)
ONLINE RADIO FEED: WJR
ENEMY BLOG: TESTUDO TIMES

The reward for Your Spartans' first round victory is a Sunday date with the ACC regular season co-champions. As always, we start with bullets:

24-8 (13-3). Tied with Duke for the ACC regular season championship. No particularly notable wins in their out-of-conference slate: the best win was probably a 71-42 shelling of Fairfield, and they also beat Indiana 80-68. Meanwhile, they lost to Cincinnati (69-57), Wisconsin (78-69), and Villanova (95-86). Their relatively poor seed--how often is the second-best team in the ACC a 4-seed?--can almost certainly be attributed to those mediocre OOC results. Nonetheless, the conference record is certainly noteworthy: the Terps finished the regular season with seven straight wins, including an emotional win against Duke on senior night.
And now, for the statistical part of our program: KenPom's computer rates the Terps as the 10th-best team in the country. Not surprising, as they're very strong on both offense (119.1 adjusted efficiency, 4th nationally) and defense (92.0 adjusted efficiency, 38th nationally).
The four factor profile is similarly impressive: 51.9% eFG (53rd nationally), 16.6% TO% (17th), 35.7% OR% (62nd), and 34.0 FTR (268th).
They shoot the ball well from the free throw line (72.7%, 50th) and from three (38.2%, 28th -- though they don't shoot many threes: 24.5 3PA/FGA, 331st).
On defense, Maryland forces turnovers at a higher-than-average rate (21.2%, 119th), limits opponents to an extremely poor eFG (44.4%, 21st), but gives oppenents lots of second chances (36.3% opponent OR%, 304th). Obviously, the last weakness is something MSU will need to capitalize on.
The Terps generally use an 8-man rotation, but rely heavily on their starters: bench players only provide 26.8% of all minutes played for Maryland. Individual stats for Terrapin players can be found here.

Clearly, the headliner for Maryland is the sometimes controversial--but always interesting--Greivis Vasquez, the ACC Player of the Year, and likely first-team All American. (Here's one of many reasons for the hate directed at him; personally, I've always kinda cheered for him because I like his game, and because he's had to put up with so much xenophobic nonsense throughout the past few years.) Vasquez scored 17 points the last time Maryland played Your Spartans, in November 2008, and this year, he's averaging 19.4 ppg and 6.3 apg, while shooting a more middling 49.9% eFG.

I'll cut-and-paste the scouting report from Testudo Times' Ben Broman, who knows more about Vasquez than I do:

Offensively, [Vasquez] an extremely complete player, and it takes a top-flight defender to slow him down. He can hit the outside shot, drive the lane, finish at the rim, and dish the rock at an elite level. Where he's a liability is on the defensive end, because he simply doesn't have the quickness, strength, or mentality to be an elite defender. As for stopping him with a quicker player, it has seen moderate success. If that quicker defender is using a lot of pressure and getting in his face, Vasquez tends to get frustrated. But if he's playing off just a little, it probably won't work. Vasquez isn't particularly quick, but he's extremely long, and that makes up for his lack of speed. He'll still be able to get in the lane either way, and shorter defenders have trouble contesting his shot or getting in his line of sight to force bad passes.

Weeeeeell, seems like we sure could use a healthy Chris Allen tomorrow. Allen has the height to guard Vasquez (who is 6'6") and, of course, has generally been tasked with slowing down the top opposing guards all season. Kalin Lucas has the requisite quickness but Vasquez would be able to shoot over him with ease; you never quite know what you're going to get with Durrell Summers; and while Mike Kebler has had some success defending good players--Talor Battle in particular--it would still be disconcerting to see a player with such limited game experience attempt to check one of the four or five best players in the country. Raymar Morgan may even get a chance if things get desperate. There are no great options here; if Allen is well enough to play at close to his normal level, he's the best one. And if there's any question as to Vasquez's centrality to Maryland's fortunes, KJ provides the following evidence: in Maryland's 8 losses, Vasquez averages 4.5 assists and 5.4 turnovers; in the 24 wins, he averages 8.8 assists and 2.3 turnovers. Making his stats look more like the latter set is clearly the biggest defensive priority tomorrow.

Maryland's starters all fall between 6'4" and 6'10"; the 6'10" guy, freshman center Jordan Williams, is probably the #2 cause for concern. He's young but has started 30 of the 32 games he's played this season, and is coming off the best game of his career: a 21 point, 17 rebound performance against Houston. As KJ noted below, he's also by far the best Terp rebounder. One glaring weakness: Williams only shoots 53% from the line, so Derrick Nix and company shouldn't be overly concerned about getting physical with him. Maryland also features three starters who can simply bomb it from outside: Vasquez (36% from 3), Sean Mosely (39%), and Eric Hayes (45%!).

The Terps will look to push the ball, as they do much of their damage on the fast break. Their adjusted tempo--70.1, 56th nationally--reflects that preference. MSU, of course, is better equipped to play an uptempo game than most of our Big Ten brethren, but we struggled mightily on Friday when New Mexico State cranked up the tempo. The biggest key to the game for us is the same as ever: dominate the rebounding battle and capitalize on our second chances. Testudo Times, again:

When Maryland loses, it's usually because they gave up an absurd amount of offensive rebounds and second chances. That's what did them in against Georgia Tech, and it certainly made a difference in the Clemson and Duke losses. For some reason I'll never understand, Gary Williams doesn't teach rebounding or boxing out, and says that rebounding is all about effort. When Maryland gives that effort, they can usually keep the battle of the boards close enough. When they don't, it gets ugly. I wouldn't be surprised if that's where the game's decided.

For our purposes, we'll assume that the effort will be there (if it's not there with a chance to go to the round of sixteen, then, um, I don't know what to tell you . . . ), but MSU should have the opportunity to rebound lots of its own misses. However, it's just as important to keep Maryland off the offensive glass: while the Terps are a poor defensive rebounding team, their 35.7% OR% is certainly respectable.

My anxiety about this game has roughly quadrupled since we learned earlier today that Chris Allen may be in worse shape than any of us expected. We missed him desperately against Minnesota; Maryland is a much better team than the Gophers are, and Allen is the ideal prospect to guard the Terps' best player. Fingers crossed for a quick recovery.

KenPom, fickle mistress that he is, predicts a 75-71 Maryland victory. The winner gets Northern Iowa, who had a bit of an exciting Saturday, as you might have heard. While UNI is playing fantastic basketball and will be a highly formidable opponent for either team, it's impossible not to think that Kansas's loss has blown the bracket wide open. As Wojo wrote earlier tonight, MSU is now presented, all of a sudden, with a tremendous chance to make more noise in this tournament than was previously thought possible. Here's hoping that this team can join the ranks of great MSU teams of the past that saw similar opportunities, and seized them.

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Just because I happened to have this handy from before the NCAA Tournament

Maryland’s polynomial trends (my favorite KJ/TOC basketball nerdom graph). Conference numbers only and their ACC Tourney game against Georgia Tech, as well.

My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.

Now I write at Bless You Boys.

Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.

by Mike Rogers on Mar 21, 2010 2:33 AM CDT reply actions

Only on this site

. . . could readers have polynomial trend graphs “handy.” (And I love it!)

PP-TPW.
The Only Colors

by LVS on Mar 21, 2010 2:40 AM CDT up reply actions

Makes me get a little teary-eyed

Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!

by KJ@theonlycolors on Mar 21, 2010 7:01 AM CDT up reply actions

You have obviously never seen

FTRS.

Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.

by Kyle McCann't on Mar 21, 2010 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions

They tend more toward pie charts, though.

by SpartanDan on Mar 21, 2010 7:53 PM CDT up reply actions

And losses.

Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.

by Kyle McCann't on Mar 21, 2010 8:31 PM CDT up reply actions

Hey, I wouldn’t want to bring anything less!

My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.

Now I write at Bless You Boys.

Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.

by Mike Rogers on Mar 22, 2010 12:41 AM CDT up reply actions

Good Luck

Usually before games, I say, may the best team win, and it is my snide way of deriding Maryland’s opponents. Today, I have a different feeling. I have a ton of respect for Izzo and Mich. St., as do most folks in Maryland (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/20/AR2010032002908.html). I see our teams and coaches as quite similar and know that you all win the right way. Best of luck this afternoon. May whoever wins, win it all.

by nmprisons on Mar 21, 2010 7:53 AM CDT reply actions

Watched the 03 Maryland game last night

Tables Turned: This time MSU has the small PG and MD has the bigger “point forward”
In the 03 game Steve Blake didn’t play well against the bigger MSU defenders culminating in his hilariously, badly missed dunk attempt and missed game winner; Alan Anderson played well save for some bad turnovers.
MSU won the rebounding battle(duh) and was particularly good on the offensive glass though MD wasn’t bad there either
What should’ve been a runaway turned into a nailbiter because of inability to handle the press and a 12-0 run by MD. I hope those 2 factors stay in the time machine.
This MD team looks tough but in 03 they were defending champs and determined to defend their title.
Other random thoughts:
It sure does help to have tall guys to pass to in the post(Davis, Lorbek)
It sure does help to have tall guys who can step out and make shots(Ballinger, Davis)
Ager and Davis were really good as Freshmen, and beyond of course
Chris Hill shot with no fear, didn’t make many but wasn’t scared to shoot
Torbert was by far the best athlete on the floor, too bad his basketball ability never caught up
Whatever happened to the different color schemes on courts at different venues? I like the NCAA’s blue and black color choices but do they have to use it on every court? It seems like you’re watching one game for 8 hours because every venue has the same court.

Play 40

by spartyball on Mar 21, 2010 9:02 AM CDT reply actions

Kansas jumped the shark!

This game is HUGE. It’s time to shut the slap twins( Digger and Seth) up.

by MSU1978 on Mar 21, 2010 9:05 AM CDT reply actions

thanks - classy post - 2 ? areas for msu to prevail

Very classy post, i absolutely agree that a ton of mutual respect between these 2
coaches and teams. Nice dialog in Tom Izzo’s press conference last night (B10network)
re operation hardwood, izzo’s second time going with Gary Williams and how that
deepened their friendship and respect for each program “doing it the right way”

I am most concerned re MSU’s guards and our defense. The size of the Terp guards
really makes me leery of Luscious just plain being shot over by whomever he is guarding. His defense actually has been very pleasantly surprisingly good this year.
Despite his lack of height, he seems to really use his quickness to have his lower body
down tight in defensive stance and really move well with opponents. He is vulnerable though to the opponent stepping back and nailing a 3 with a quick release, maybe more so than being driven on. Not sure a hobbled Lucas and short Luscious together on the court isn’t a huge offensive advantage for MD’s backcourt. WE will see, the “6 eyes” are not
just the backcourt so the whole team needs to really bring it defensively with no lapses.

I do think MSU will have “6 eyes” at all times on Vasquez so how Maryland’s other 2 guards play will really affect the game. IF Chris Allen can’t go at all or is really unable
to provide his usual defensive effort physically, I wonder if Raymar will play lots of minutes at the 3?

Which brings me to the second key ? for MSU. How will our freshmen centers
perform against Maryland’s star center Williams? We are very lucky that he is
a freshman too, not a junior/senior as it makes the matchup more equal in terms of
experience. Will Nix give us 15-20 good minutes with 10-15 from Sherman? That would
give us more Roe minutes for the 4 and let Morgan play more 3.

I think Morgan and Green will have Lucas-like minutes (ie 34-36 game minutes unless
either is in foul trouble).

We need to limit Vasquez without letting another guard light us up and win the battle of the points in the paint to win, I think. If defense can lead to some (ie 8-12 points off turnovers) that would be a huge boost to our offense. Have to believe this game
comes down to Spartan defense though. A lot has been made of our offensive rebounding advantage and Morgan at the 3 can definitely help there which might
give us enough extra possessions to win.

Will be very very surprised if this is not a close battle all the way through.

by wifeofaspartan on Mar 21, 2010 9:19 AM CDT reply actions