Moving right along: A first look at the Northern Iowa Panthers
The plane leaves tomorrow night. Here's what we know about the Panthers:
- Overall record of 30-4. Conference record of 15-3. Won both regular season and conference tournament titles in Missouri Valley Conference.
- Quality (KenPom top 100) wins: Iowa State, Siena, Missouri State (twice), Illinois State (twice), Old Dominion, Wichita State, UNLV, THE #1 RANKED AND TOP-OVERALL-SEEDED UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS JAYHAWKS.
BadAll losses: DePaul, Wichita State, Bradley, Evansville.- Common opponent: Iowa. UNI beat the Hawkeyes by 17 at home. Michigan State beat Iowa by 18 on the road and 7 at home. (Pish posh. Small sample size.)
- KenPom rating of #25 (they've just now inched ahead of MSU). #55 on offense; #15 on defense.
- Good depth: 9 players average more than 10 minutes per game.
- Coached by Ben Jacobson, who took over for previous head coach Greg McDermott when McDermott left for Iowa State in 2006 after guiding UNI to 3 straight NCAA Tournament bids. This is the Panthers' second consecutive NCAA appearance under Jacobson; last year, they lost to Purdue in the first round, 61-56.
Here's a statistical capsule for the five Panther starters (sorry, I don't have a pronunciation guide):
| Player | Height | Weight | Year | Min/G | Pts/G | OffRtg | Poss% | 2pt% | 3pt% | FT% | Oreb% | Dreb% | Ast/G | TO/G | Blk/G | Stl/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kwadzo Ahelegbe | 6'2" | 200 | Jr | 29.5 | 10.6 | 89.9 | 27.4 | .387 | .348 | .732 | 1.9 | 11.5 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
| Ali Farokhmanesh | 6'0" | 190 | Sr | 30.3 | 9.7 | 113.5 | 16.7 | .414 | .378 | .865 | 1.0 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| Johnny Moran | 6'1" | 190 | So | 26.4 | 5.6 | 95.5 | 15.7 | .443 | .276 | .829 | 3.5 | 12.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Adam Koch | 6'8" | 255 | Sr | 25.1 | 11.6 | 110.6 | 27.0 | .511 | .353 | .842 | 6.8 | 18.4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Jordan Eglseder | 7'0" | 280 | Sr | 21.6 | 12.0 | 113.3 | 30.7 | .544 | .250 | .736 | 15.7 | 27.7 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
(Went with rebounding percentage, rather than per-game, numbers to show what a beast Eglseder is on the boards.)
This is a deep, balanced, veteran team. But their offensive numbers don't exactly leap off the page. That's partly a function of the fact UNI plays the game of basketball at a glacially slow pace--59 possessions per game. That's good for 3rd slowest in the country. Even Wisconsin plays with (slightly) more hop in their step than these guys do.
Like Wisconsin, the Panthers' clear offensive strength is taking care of the ball. They've turned it over on just 18.0% of possessions this season. Beyond that, UNI has a pretty run-of-the-mill offensive profile. Ali Farokhmanesh is a pretty good 3-point shooter (as anyone who watched the game against Kansas knows), but the Panthers make a routine 35.6% of shots from beyond the arc as a team. Jordan Eglseder scores proficiently around the basket and grabs missed shot with abandon (ranking 10th nationally in offensive rebounding %), but the team only makes 47.5% of 2-point attempts and grabs 32.2% of missed shots collectively.
UNI hits their free throws when they get to the line, ranking 7th in the nation in FT% at 76.1%, but they don't get to the line that often, ranking just 193rd in free throw rate. In other words: Don't swipe at the ball.
Most of the UNI offense runs through their post guys. Eglseder gobbles up possessions with his combination of height, bulk, and funky post moves, and Adam Koch is pretty assertive with the ball, as well. Kwadzo Ahelegbe is an oddity: A player who takes up 27% of his team's offensive possessions while he's on the floor while posting an offensive rating well below the 100 mark (89.9). Forcing him to drive the lane with the shot clock running down seems like a good strategy, as he's made just 38.7% of his 2-point attempts this season.
Farokhmanesh is, on paper at least, the only real threat to put up big scoring numbers from the outside for the Panthers. And he's done that very well thus far in NCAA Tournament play, scoring 33 points on 9-19 three-point shooting over the opening weekend. The Spartan guards will want to keep close tabs on him.
Despite the fact that UNI beat Kansas by putting up 69 points in a 62-possession game, defense has been their calling card for the most of the season. The Panthers held 14 of their 18 MVC opponents below a point per possession. Again, they bear an eerie similarity to our friends in Madison, ranking 22nd in the country in defensive rebounding percentage, allowing opponents to grab just 28.0% of their misses. Eglseder also leads the way on the defensive glass, ranking 6th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. UNI also bears a quality that Bo Ryan teams of past years were known for: They don't foul. UNI's opponent's FTR ranks 15th nationally.
The Panthers rarely block shots (ranking just 294th nationally in team block%), but they do a good job forcing tough shots inside the arc, holding opponents to a 2-point shooting percentage of 44.7%. And UNI opponents recorded assists on just 44.2% of made field goals, indicating the Panthers are going to man you up and make you beat them one on one.
UNI is a bigger team that I was expecting. They have a 3-guard lineup, but their post players are of the full-sized variety. The Panthers feature three players that are at least 6'8" in their regular rotation and four players that weigh at least 255 pounds. The bad news is that Draymond Green and Raymar Morgan--both of whom can initiate the offense more in Kalin Lucas' absence--won't have any size advantage at the 4 spot. The good news is that Tom Izzo can use big lineups for most of the game.
With Lucas out and Chris Allen improving but still a unknown factor, MSU only has two healthy guards that have played regular minutes throughout the season: Korie Lucious and Durrell Summers. Izzo will be able to rotate Derrick Nix, Garrick Sherman, and Delvon Roe (as long as his knee holds up) regularly at the 5 spot, leaving Green to man the 4 and Morgan to play the 3. Morgan should then have a size advantage against one of the Panther guards on offense, but will need to play solid perimeter defense on the other end.
I'll stop there for now. Big picture, this is a game in which MSU, despite the absence of its best player, will still enjoy a positive talent differential. But it's also a game that will severely test the ability of a short-handed and banged up group of Spartans to play disciplined basketball for 40 minutes.
KenPom is now predicting a 60-59 Northern Iowa win on Friday night in a 59-possession game. Despite MSU's injury situation, the guys in Vegas think it's the Spartans by a point or so.
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35 comments
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Comments
Since I;d like us in a normal match up
I’ve got to think that this is where MSU digs down and shows the grit that we know it has and pulls this one out.
Light a man a fire, he'll stay warm for a day.
Light a man afire, he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
Me too, but I think that UNI team also showed a little grit last weekend
The Panthers will try to control the tempo and the game. We might be able to win in that circumstance, especially if they don’t shoot out of their minds like they did against Kansas. How we deal with the big guy when on defense, and how we find good shots on offense, look like the key to this one.
Haven't posted in while
I’ve been recovering from “the shot”. But here are some thoughts on the sweet sixteen.
1. I like us against UNI. I think if there is one thing the Big Ten can do it is grind a game out, and even with out Lucas we have superior talent. This game could very well be Lucious’ coming out party.
2, Ohio State should crush Tennessee who is the least deserving team still left.
3. I will be rooting for Xavier and Butler to pull upsets, but Syracuse and KSU look dominant and on a collision course. (Does anybody know if Onuaku is playing?)
4. Baylor vs St. Mary’s might be the best game of the round.
5. I think Purdue has a shot to show its grittiness yet again against one of the least gritty teams remaining. If Purdue can turn it into a slugfest then they have the toughness, and Kramer, to beat Duke.
6. No idea on Wash-WVU. WV has looked great, but the Big East has struggled and Washington is playing some awesome basketball. Pondexter vs Butler will be fun.
7. As much as I would like to see Cornell win I just don’t see it happening. Cornell sliced up two methodical, disciplined, slow-paced teams that would let Cornell get into the half court. If Calipari knows anything about basketball he will press from buzzer to buzzer and run Cornell out of the gym.
Any team that plays with the defensive fire
the Boilers have displayed of late will have a chance against anyone. They shouldn’t win, but I would feel very uncomfortable betting against them.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Mar 24, 2010 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Did you watch the Duke-Cal game?
Duke played lockdown D for most of the game. They’re a lot better defensively than in recent years. This season’s version looks much more like their previous Final Four teams.
by handsomerob1 on Mar 24, 2010 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions
The only problem there:
it was against Cal. Yes, Washington is in the Sweet 16, but it’s become apparent that, had they actually played to expectations, they should be the only team from the Pac 10 to have made it; that was a lousy conference this year. Following the turd of a football season they had I don’t want to hear a single peep of “East Coast Bias” for the next calendar year.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Mar 24, 2010 7:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Given the Big East's performance ...
… charges of “East Coast Bias” are believable. It’s just that it’s the Midwest and Rockies instead of the West Coast that got short shrift this time.
I'm all for Big Ten chest thumping
but there is a very real possibility that the conference is knocked out altogether after this round. If they all make the Elite 8, I’m down.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Mar 24, 2010 9:03 PM CDT up reply actions
The Pac 10
is 2-0 against the Big East in this year’s tourney, with the chance to go 3-0 tonight. An East Coast Bias is more than believable.
by handsomerob1 on Mar 25, 2010 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions
Cal is an explosive offense, though.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
by Mike Rogers on Mar 25, 2010 12:35 AM CDT up reply actions
The way the Ford Pinto was and explosive car.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Mar 25, 2010 9:17 AM CDT up reply actions
They held Cal to 53 points
25 points below their season average of 78. The number of possessions doesn’t matter. They were flat-out shut down.
by handsomerob1 on Mar 25, 2010 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm mostly just trying to be a smartass,
but there is the Big XII football comparison. Two years ago everyone was blown away by how incredible seemingly every offensive unit in that league performed. It wasn’t until deep into the season that people started to wonder, “are their offenses really good or do they just not play defense?” The same point could be made about Cal’s season average. It was achieved playing in a Pac 10 conference that got a grand total of two teams into the tourney. So they are 3-0 vs. the Big East. The MAC, Colonial, WCC and A-10 have also knocked Big East teams out.
Yes, Duke can play some serious D and should be given credit for rendering Cal impotent. However, my point is that Purdue can also play some absolutely stiffing defense which should keep things close. And in the tournament, if you’re close at the end anything can happen.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Mar 25, 2010 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Refs will be key
If they call the game real tight then Purdue has no chance, but if they let them play and Kramer and Grant can really get into Scheyer and Singler, I could see them slowing this way down and knocking Duke off. Of course, Duke could also come out hot and put the game away in the first 8 minutes too I guess.
Purdue's challenge will be scoring points
They were under one point per trip in their first two games and Duke’s defense is better than Siena or A & M.
It will come down to whether we can slow down Eglseder
I’m not too worried about their perimeter players. Yes Faroukhmanesh has been hot in the tournament but as long as we stay out on him we should be OK, as he is only 6 feet tall, so everyone including Lucious has the height to bother his shot. After facing Hayes/Vasquez in the last game, he doesn’t seem that intimidating, but we will have to keep track of him at all times to avoid letting him get hot. Having Allen able to play meaningful minutes would be nice as he is our best perimeter defender. This is one of the few games where we will have something of a size advantage on the perimeter, at least while our starters are in there.
Eglseder is the guy that will pose match up problems. He can step out away from the basket, and has the size to post up anyone on our team. He will be the tough one to slow down. Plus he is an absolute beast on the glass and has the height to bother shots. We’ve got the bodies to throw at him but I’m not sure any of them are experienced/healthy enough to slow him down much. Battling on the boards will be a strength on strength contest and winning that would be huge. Either Morgan or Green should have a mismatch for much of the game and hopefully we can exploit that. Keeping both of them out of foul trouble will be important.
Eglseder will be tough
but he only plays about 20 minutes a game, and I think if we can speed up the tempo that number, and his effectiveness will drop. If Lucious can run an efficient fast break (a big if) then I think that will take Eglseeder out of the game. No one else on their front line really scares me.
Don't forget
O’Rear! Fear O’Rear AKA The Thick Mick.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Mar 24, 2010 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions
O'Rear
Despite his outstanding name and sideburns, he strikes me as a poor man’s Draymond Green. A Dancing Bear lite if you will. Since we have the real Dancing Bear, I’m not all that worried. O’Rear averages less than 20 minutes a game, and only posts 4.2 pts and 4.5 rebs per game.
He does play limited minutes
Although they may play him more in the tourney than they have during the regular season. I agree we should attempt to push the pace and run at every opportunity, but given the pace they tend to play at I think opportunities to do so will be limited. If they allowed teams to just get out and run against them, their pace would not be so glacial.
by TheCrestedHelm on Mar 24, 2010 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Pronunciation guide
Kwadzo Ahelegbe : kuh-JOE uh-HEL-ig-buh
Ali Farokhmanesh : ah-LEE fuh-ROKE-muh-nesh
Jordan Eglseder : EGG-el-seed-er
by Con-T on Mar 24, 2010 10:04 AM CDT reply actions 2 recs
Rec'ed!
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Mar 24, 2010 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions
That's a new one to me.
I’ve met Koch’s who were “Kotch” & “Coke” but never Cook. People can pronounce their nmes however they want but Cook from Koch doesn’t make linguistic sense.
And now for something completely different ...
Who doesl UNI have that can matchup with the Dancing Bear, or ’Rell? Do they have a defense as good as Maryland? Can they handle our fast break? I think not.
"Can they handle our fast break?"
Because Kansas is pretty bad in transition…
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Mar 24, 2010 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Clearly
Northern Iowa is a solid team that can compete with the best of the best. Yes, they can handle our fast break if we run it as poorly as Kansas did against them. I still would argue that it’s to our advantage to try to run on them.
Against a control team
not having your QB, in Lucas, will be a real test of team discipline and should provide Izzo with ample opportunity to showcase his ability to adjust in-game. It should be a real grinder.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Mar 24, 2010 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions
I think their D is far superior to Marylands
but is not based on pressing and forcing turnovers. They play at a slow pace so opportunities to get out on the break will likely be limited. It would be nice to run – I just don’t think they’ll let us do it all that often. I hope they do, but my guess is they will want to force us into a half court game.
by TheCrestedHelm on Mar 24, 2010 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions
reply to Steinfi2
Yesterday WVU’s starting PG broke his foot in practice, so they’ll be going to a back-up who, according to the talking heads, is not much of a threat to score. The 4 Letter had a telephone interview with HuggyBear last night and noted that he sounded real laid back. That was one interpretation. He sounded three sheets to the wind to me.
Mazzulla has started a lot for them
But it is never good to lose a starter. Kentucky might be breathing a little easier.
Here's to hoping we play this game in the mid-to-upper 60's pace.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.

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