The analyst checks out, the fan hits the road
by KJ@theonlycolors on Apr 1, 2010 11:12 PM CDT
in Michigan State Spartans Basketball
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PrintWe're now roughly 43 hours out from the commencement of the Michigan State basketball team's quest for a third national championship. And I'm of two minds.
The basketball analyst inside me isn't too optimistic. It's been a thrilling ride to get this far, but it's been a ride with razor-thin margins. In the five halves of basketball MSU has now played following the end of Kalin Lucas' season, there have been 151 possessions each for the Spartans and their foes. In those possessions, the MSU players have scored 166 points. Their opponents have scored 165. Since the Spartans started the first half of basketball in that sample with a 9-point lead, that's been enough to secure three victories. But it's not an encouraging statistical predictor. (Key question: Can Mr. Summers keep it up? Disconcerting stat given who our opponent is Saturday night: Opponent's free throw rate over the 100 Lucasless minutes is 43.1.)
The Spartan fan inside me, meanwhile, is packing the immediate family up at 8:00 tomorrow morning to drive to Indianapolis. The same white-block-S-on-Spartan-green-background shirt that helped secure two wins at Lucas Oil Stadium 53 weeks ago is packed in my suitcase. Michigan State's all-time 7-0 record in NCAA Tournament games played in Indy is securely implanted in my consciousness. Tom Izzo's well-established track record and Draymond Green's personal NCAA career record of 9-1 calm my nerves. The dream scenario is tantalizingly dangled in front of us.
Let's hope fandom trumps analysis. Fight for the the only colors.
P.S. I hope to check in a couple times over the weekend--and you can follow whatever spontaneous insights pop into my head on Twitter--but LVS and Pete will be running the show until (at least) next Tuesday night.
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Reason For Optimism
Just remember, statistically no one picked Villanova against Georgetown in ‘85. Stuff happens on the court, and sometimes it’s good stuff.
Have fun in Indy
I don’t think Summers will keep it up in this game, at least from three point land, but not because he’s been playing above his pre-tournament level and coming back down to earth is inevitable. Butler absolutely does not let opponents go off on the perimeter, as you noted in your preview. If Summers gets his point they’ll have to come from inside the arc.
Butler’s defense is built around forcing you to take the least efficient shots – they prevent you from shooting 3s and getting layups. What is left is 2 point jumpers. Let’s hope we can feast on those. I think we have the personnel to do so – Morgan, Green, Summers, and Allen are all capable of scoring from closer in, but don’t necessarily have to be at the rim. I don’t think points will come very easy so we need to play really well on D, because they are virtually sure to play well on that side of the ball. First team to a point-per-possession wins. Lets hope it is us. The numbers are not necessarily in our favor, but it’s hard to be too pessimistic after the run we’ve had over the past couple of years. If we win it all, we very well may be the most unlikely National Champ since that Villanova team.
Summers
I’m hoping that Summers realizes the lanes that open up from Butler defending the perimeter so tight. Although he has done damage from beyond the arc, he can still tear it up closer to the hoop.
He was doing it earlier this year
during the heart of the Big 10 season he was sort of attacking that middle area inside the 3 point line effectively. His 3 point shot did not seem to be falling at the time, but he is capable of consistent shooting of the non-dunking variety inside the arc.
by TheCrestedHelm on Apr 2, 2010 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions
Correction: Draymond's career NCAA record is 9-1
I keep screwing that up. LVS, can you correct?
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Apr 2, 2010 9:30 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Maybe I'm the only one paying attention to this
This year’s sophomore class is more than half way to becoming the winningest class in MSU basketball history. The Charlie Bell-Andre Hutson gang holds the current record with 115 wins. Thus far, the sophs have 59 wins. The Lucas-Allen-Summers juniors have 86 as of now and need two this weekend plus a dynamite senior year to get the record. I would like to see both classes get out with over 120 wins in their respective four years.
Good stuff
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Apr 2, 2010 10:16 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
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