Return of the Spartans
by KJ@theonlycolors on Apr 15, 2010 9:11 PM CDT
in Michigan State Spartans Basketball
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PrintSo Kalin Lucas is definitely playing a fourth year in the green and white. And this excerpt from Joe Rexrode's blog sure makes it sound like Durrell Summers isn't entertaining thoughts of departing early any more:
Once a human being confirms it on the record, I expect to say the same of Durrell Summers.
I think it's safe to start getting excited about next season.
Raymar Morgan is the only player among the top 11 MSU players in minutes played this past season who will not return for the 2010-2011 season. To get even more precise, 84.7 percent of the 2009-2010 Spartan minutes played will return next season. Of the 15.3 percent of minutes that are not returning, 13.2 percentage points belonged to Morgan. The other 2.1 percentage points belonged to Isaiah Dahlman, Tom Herzog, and Jon Crandell. (I'm assuming Herzog doesn't come back for the moment, just to be a conservative statistician.)
My guess would have been that a returning minutes percentage of 84.7 would represent the high-water mark during the Tom Izzo era. But it doesn't. Here are the numbers going as far back as StatSheet can take us:
| Season | MinRet% | Departed Players |
|---|---|---|
| 1997-98 | 63.6 | Weathers, Garavagila, Polonowski, Mull, Webber, Evans |
| 1998-99 | 91.4 | Wiley, K. Miller, McKenzie |
| 1999-2000 | 62.6 | A. Smith, Klein, Kelley, D. Davis, Guess |
| 2000-01 | 60.4 | Peterson, Granger, Cleaves, Cherry |
| 2001-02 | 26.3 | Bell, Hutson, Richardson, Thomas, Randolph, Chappell, B. Smith |
| 2002-03 | 82.6 | Taylor, Ishbia, Westrick, Alexander |
| 2003-04 | 71.0 | Anagonye, Ballinger, Lorbek, Wolfe, Westrick, Vincent |
| 2004-05 | 90.2 | Andreas, R. Johnson, Ockerman, Cotton |
| 2005-06 | 58.9 | Anderson, Hill, Torbert, Bograkos, Harvey |
| 2006-07 | 40.5 | Brown, Ager, P. Davis, Trannon. Rowley, Hamo, Aerts |
| 2007-08 | 89.4 | Joseph, Ducre, Hannon, Tibaldi, Darnton, Curry, Wardius |
| 2008-09 | 73.6 | Neitzel, Naymick |
| 2009-10 | 67.9 | Walton, Suton, Gray, Ibok |
| 2010-11 | 84.7 | Morgan, Dahlman, Herzog, Crandell |
(Technical notes: (1) I counted all players' minutes as returning for the next season unless a player was departing the program for good through graduation/etc. The first two numbers in the table are arguably overstated due to mid-career redshirts by Thomas Kelley and David Thomas. (2) Just for the heckuvit, I included every player who's played a single minute for MSU in the table. Five hundred bonus points to anyone who can tell us about Rob McKenzie, who literally played a single minute for MSU.)
The 1999, 2005, and 2008 teams all had higher returning minute percentages than next year's team will have. Those three teams posted a collective Big Ten record of 42-10 and a collective NCAA Tournament record of 10-3 (with two Final Four appearances). And those performances were based on returning a high percentage of minutes from teams who weren't elite performers in the previous year. The 1998 team won the Big Ten title and made it to the Sweet Sixteen, but neither the 2004 nor 2007 teams had advanced past the first weekend of NCAA Tournament play.
Returning nearly 85 percent of your player minutes coming off two straight conference championships and Final Four appearances is, I'm nearly certain, a rare feat in the world of modern Division 1 college basketball. Add in a top-10 recruiting class, and MSU looks to fare very well in Dan Hanner's model for predicting future success.
As shown below, there's a decent correlation between returning minutes percentage and depth ratio. But you probably didn't need any fancy numbers to tell you that next year's team is going be crazy deep. More on that next week.
P.S. Congratulations to the 2009-2010 team for being the first Tom Izzo team with a depth ratio above 3.00 to get past the first weekend of NCAA Tournament play.
P.P.S. Again, 10 of our top 11 players are back next season. This is exciting. Like all-caps EXCITING. If only it weren't nearly seven months in the future.
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Not to dump a cold bucket of water...
but I’m waiting until we hear from Durrell and whether or not any of the transfer rumors are legit.
But it sure is hard to not get excited-particularly when you look around the college hoop landscape. Hoo boy.
Yeah, I'm guessing
that the impending 2011 NBA lockout has a lot of players jumping ship now.
Before we get too excited though, I’m betting both JJ and E’Twaun will play for Purdue next year, making the Big Ten the best league in CBB next year.
Don’t sleep on OSU either. Even though Turner’s a great loss, Sullinger’s got the talent to fill in, and Leighty and Buford still scare the crap out of me.
by Pete Rossman on Apr 15, 2010 9:35 PM CDT up reply actions
Moore will be back. I think JJ may stay in.
OSU will be loaded. I’m still worried about our roster-but if everyone does return, we’d be loaded and experienced to boot, with two freshman to push the old guys.
It will be Izzo’s toughest coaching job ever.
Cautiously exciting but don't count chickens yet
I don’t really have inside info but I feel comfortable saying that I wouldn’t rule out some attrition still. I think one (or two?) of those ten still might not be back next year. It may be all smoke but at least one person I’d trust says their might be fire. I would expect it to resolve itself sometime after the semester ends. Don’t mean to be cryptic or imply I know more than I do but I’m just saying I wouldn’t invest my life savings in the idea that one of those other guys (besides Lucas/Summers) isn’t moving on still.
Well, there's two schools of thought on this
The pro: You make a typo, and want to change it.
The con: Someone says something incredibly stupid and is able to backpedal.
I lean more towards the con. Trust me, every single one of the writers of this site has made multiple typos before, so you might as well embrace your clumsy fingers.
What might happen is a time-limited edit; you’d be able to edit your comment for a short period after you make it. E-mail support@sbnation.com if you want this.
by Pete Rossman on Apr 15, 2010 9:49 PM CDT up reply actions
What good does back pedaling really do?
Everyone knows who idiots are in message board type settings. You can edit stuff on places like the rcmb, rivals, and scouts and yet it never helps.
Anyone who makes a dumb statement or wrong prediction and is not a tool is not gonna edit that stuff. There gonna own up and go on there way because nobody perfect
I dont think there are any cons to being able to edit. You can fix typos or even add something to the thought without a full new post.
"You think our war drill is something now. Next year is going to be fist fighting."- Tom Izzo
Go Spartans
Time-limited editing works
Another blog I regularly follow does it and it helps a lot. I think it’s set to like 10 minutes. Hopefully they can add this feature on sbnation.
by AlkalineKidAP on Apr 16, 2010 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions
It is exciting
That crumpling noise you hear is me discarding my notes for a post on exactly this topic. The other thing worth mentioning is how experienced those minutes are. How often in modern college basketball does a team at MSU’s level of performance return three seniors like Lucas, Summers and Allen? I know, more often than you might think, but still. . .And Green, Roe and Lucious will be juniors. Disclaimer: yes, we still don’t know who will be back. The current buzz is that Allen might not. I’ve even heard Sherman mentioned. Nothing I consider solid yet, however.
I heard that as well.
Rexrode said 6 of the 9 returnees, other than Summers and Allen, have had transfer rumors attached to their names. It’s not tough to figure out who the 3 are.
The only one I believe
is Herzog. It seems logical that he’d want to go somewhere else to grad school and get another engineering degree and playing time. Other than that, I will light my pants on fire in Rick’s if any of these transfer rumors are true, especially Allen’s. No way you play on a foot that hurt in the NCAA’s if you don’t give a damn about MSU.
by Pete Rossman on Apr 15, 2010 9:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Hope you're right.
I was thinking Lucious might go too, if Kalin returned. But I kind of doubt that at this point. Despite Kalin’s return, his health is anything but a sure thing, and Korie will be a full-time co-pilot now. We’ll go 3 guards a lot, with or without Durrell, with the arrival of Appling. You could even see 4 guards with one of the bigs at times.
The only people I haven't heard mentioned are
The only three I haven’t heard mentioned are Nix, Roe, and Green. I would count Kebler, Thornton, Allen, Sherman, Herzog, and Lucious. Obviously, as Rexrode parodies, all those guys aren’t leaving, possibly none. No need to rumor monger but just sayin’ our 2010-2011 roster is no guarantee at this point.
Where would we finish in the Big Ten?
With a 8 man lineup of Lucas Appling, Green, Roe, Nix. With Gauna, Payne, and Byrd coming off the bench.
Just assuming worst case.
"You think our war drill is something now. Next year is going to be fist fighting."- Tom Izzo
Go Spartans
Should Mike Chapelle be on that list somewhere or...
are you not counting him since he transferred in? I see you’ve got the outgoing guys…D. Davis and MoJo for example.
Forgot to include him in the table
Had accounted for him in the percentages, though.
Fixed. Thanks.
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Apr 16, 2010 7:15 AM CDT up reply actions
post season contribution by one of the freshman (or more)
Unless the team chemistry is screwed up by so much contribution for playing time,
would think the depth will be great.
I would look for one (or 2) of the freshmen to have a significant post season contribution in
terms of making plays when they are really needed. Learning MSU defense, offensive sets,
running in transition and 4 to the boards is a challenge for any freshman. When he is surrounded by experienced players it is much easier. Think of Jason Richardson, Randolph, Davis and Lorbeck, Neitzel and Shannon Brown (who both contributed steadily from mid season on), and Green last year.
One of my sons was a varsity runner all 4 years in high school. He
said he really enjoyed it most his freshman year because he was so innocent and was
just delighted by being able to contribute. After that year, every team race he felt the need to really get faster, do his best for his team, to score as high as possible. He certainly enjoyed his other 3 years but not as much pure joy as his freshman year.
Three times is the charm
We have not had this much quality depth since 1999. As in we’re gonna party like its …
I knew Rob McKenzie!!!
Not only was he a good friend of a good friend, he was also a friend of other friends! And yet, Rob and I never managed to be actual friends ourselves! I believe he was a 5th year senior when he finally suited up. I knew him (by proxy) before that, as he was a couple of classes ahead of me. My good friend who later became a good friend of Rob’s told me his thing was being deadly from 3. I say this in all sincere nicety: you would not ever imagine Rob suited up for a Big Ten champ team if you met him in any other circumstance. But hey, that’s also exactly what you’d say of my current hero, Mike Kebler. The supposed great piece of trivia about Rob is that his last name was misspeled on his Big Ten championship ring.
Bonus bonus: It was was through this connection that we heard of a story where Izzo ran a drill of full court sprints followed by FTs after each sprint, with some ungodly number of sprints involved (I vaguely recall the number 75). Only one player made all FTs. That player? …Steve Cherry.
Bonus bonus bonus: I know Rob went on to work for government in DC, eventually left to either start his own non-profit, or do significant lobbying for certain non-profits, or something like that. This should be the man right here
http://www.soas.ac.uk/staff/staff41796.php
I'm gonig to go ahead and award 1,000 bonus points
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Apr 16, 2010 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Arabic and Swahili
Hah, nice DP, Yes that’s definitely #15.
After School he came out to DC before deciding to move to Egypt to learn Arabic and study Middle Eastern culture – living in Cairo, and not really in the nice parts. He seems to think in Arabic expressions now and talks with an excellent accent. A few years ago he started working with Sudanese refugees coming north from the mess there and picked up some Swahili. Recently earned his doctorate and has been working on similar refugee issues in other countries as a post-doc.
I once went with him to the ESPNzone and watched him miss a first shot walking in the door before hitting 12 “three-pointers” in a row—putting him #2 in the score book there behind some NBA’er.
Whenever you see the Big11en/NCAA commercials about most of the NCAA going onto something besides pro sports, think Bobby Mack.
(Incidentally, his job on the team in practice was to lock down Mateen—and they had every bit the same tenacity and spirit. A true Spartan and he believes he can do anything – just tell him he can’t). Really good guy.
by Withshieldoronit on Apr 16, 2010 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Awesome
Rob is one of the people in a long list I have. The “Looking back, why the hell didn’t I become friends/was a better friend with this person???” list. I blame the guys he was friends with before he became good friend of my good friend. All decent people, that crew, just not my croud.
Our backcourt will be absolutely stacked
I’m still a little worried about our front line. Green is a proven commodity. Roe is definitely a warrior but I’m not counting on major improvement until I hear a prognosis on his knee. Both Nix and Sherman have shown flashes of good things to come, but we’re basically going to be relying on them or a freshman to replace Morgan’s scoring and defense. If they develop well over the summer we will be in great shape.
by TheCrestedHelm on Apr 16, 2010 12:30 PM CDT reply actions
Rob McKenzie???
Rob McKenzie is worth far more than 500 bonus points. I’ve heard about this guy in passing on more than one occasion. No one, and I mean no one, really seems to know anything about this guy. Where he is or what he is doing is beyond anyone’s guess. Someone told me he was last seen in Cairo, Egypt. What the the hell he was doing there no one seems to know—one person said he was working with refugees, another said he was teaching at the American University in Cairo, another said he was studying Islam at Al-Azhar university, another person said he had only passed through Cairo for a few days. Then someone else told me he was in war torn eastern Congo, apparently living in a village known as Swima. Yet again there are more rumors or stories, but nothing concrete. Someone else said that he is coaching high school basketball in Indiana. And yet another person said he was working for a consulting firm or investment bank in NYC.
Does anyone have any idea—that is, any real idea—where this guy is or what he is doing? Rob McKenzie, despite having played only minute (although no one can confirm that either), is a great mystery. I would give 5,000 bonus points to anyone who can come up with (1) any concrete information about this guy and (2) a photo of him in a MSU basketball uniform. Otherwise, I wonder if he even exists?
Hi Jonny,
I’m actually a former roommate of Rob’s from his time here in DC. First met him in Mason-Abbot when I was a frosh. Last email I have from him is from November, but spoke to him at Christmas time (and yesterday forwarded him this article and thread—which he probably finds odd I’m commenting on). Anyhow, I have a pic with him and his Big11en Championship ring which I guess doesn’t quite count as “in uniform”… (To see him in uniform, on the team schedule poster for that year he is very visible, suited up, in the team circle with an arm raised across someone’s back—look for the small guy in front, though absent a name on his back—of course.)
He was at the American University in Cairo for a while—initially that’s where he went to study Arabic—he just didn’t go with the “traditional” housing. I’ve not asked him about the Congo. He’s certainly not living/working in NYC or Indiana, though he may have passed through to speak at some point in the last several years. Masters from Georgetown (International Affairs), PhD from SOAS (Anthropology). The ‘what he was doing there’—living in and learning about middle eastern culture—kind of a precursor to: (http://www.soas.ac.uk/staff/staff41796.php) … and I really did go with him to the ESPNzone in DC and see him hit the 12 straight “three’s” in a minute—I stood under the hoop to pass them back. He certainly exists, and he’s definitely a Spartan to be proud of who decided to go explore the world a bit. Oddly enough, there was a guy from the old floor in Abbott who started calling him “Larry Legend” when he heard Rob made the team… it sounds like a few folks are swapping stories and perhaps the legend is growing?
by Withshieldoronit on Apr 17, 2010 9:54 PM CDT up reply actions
The one minute is confirmed
He posted a trillion in this 28-point blowout of Central Michigan in November of 1997. He was a new walk-on as a senior and this was the only action he saw that year. Here’s how the Athletic Department described it the following day:
A NEW MAN ON THE ROSTER — Senior Rob McKenzie (#15), who made this year’s squad as a walk-on, saw a minute of action last evening against Central Michigan. McKenzie is a native of Dearborn Heights and graduated from Crestwood High School.
I have alerted Mark Titus.
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Apr 19, 2010 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Though I know little of him...
…all accounts suggest this is how people feel whenever Rob Mckenzie is involved.
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