TOC Talk: The 2010 Michigan State Football Outlook

by KJ@theonlycolors on Apr 28, 2010 9:32 PM CDT in Michigan State Spartans Football

So we've got all the hard data we're going to get for the next four months. Here's what we know (or, rather, what I think I know):

The team is talented, deep, and experienced at the offensive skill positions. The best pure passer in the league will be throwing to a talented stable of receivers and handing off to as many as four running backs with playmaking ability.
The offensive line is unsettled. The pass blocking more than likely won't be as good as it was last season. The run blocking, almost as a matter of simple mathematics, has to be better.
The defensive line has potential, but it's potential of the very young variety.
The linebackers are led by the top defensive playmaker in the league and show enough depth for the 3-4 to be a real possibility as the base defense--which could just maybe mean less predictable defensive play calling.
The starting defensive backs (Rucker/Adams/Hyde/Robinson) look good on paper, although that's the only place the defensive backs looked good last season.
The punter is a senior. The placekickers are freshmen (effectively).
The schedule has pluses (all four nonconference games are [basically] at home, no Ohio State) and minuses (Michigan, Iowa, and Penn State on the road).

Corrections? Predictions? Prognostications? Vacillations?

We'll take any of those.

Poll

How many regular season wins will the 2010 MSU football team put up?

5 or fewer

16 votes

6

26 votes

7

95 votes

8

284 votes

9

146 votes

10 or more

45 votes

612 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 7 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I called 8

4-0 in non-conference and 4-4 in conference.

Light a man a fire, he'll stay warm for a day.
Light a man afire, he'll be warm for the rest of his life.

by Seer on Apr 29, 2010 10:58 AM CDT reply actions

I said 9. Losses to Iowa, PSU, and Wisconsin…I guess a loss to Northwestern or Michigan wouldn’t shock me, but I think they can win both.

by Sparty2k on Apr 29, 2010 12:27 PM CDT reply actions

So far,

it would appear that people are (1) relatively optimistic about the season but (2) scared to say exactly why.

Paranoid optimism. The hallmark of MSU football fandom.

Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!

by KJ@theonlycolors on Apr 29, 2010 2:03 PM CDT reply actions

last season i predicted 8, with a good chance at 9 or 10. this means i really thought we’d win 9, but i’m a total homer, so i always subtract 1. i expected wins against UM and ND, even though they weren’t givens. i also assumed a win for all the games that were not clear wins or losses (iowa, minnesota, northwestern). add in the loss to CMU, and that’s how 9 wins turns into 6.

i had assumed our o-lines and d-lines would be better due simply to talent upgrades. the d-line was the real disappointment, as hoover didn’t surpass neely, and anderson seemed to be injured every week. there was also the narduzzi imaginary unicorn defense. there are very good reasons why those predicted wins were turned to losses, and it usually had to do with experience. which is what we lack again this year on the lines.

so this year i still expect we will beat UM and ND (2). i also think we will beat WMU, FAU, northern colorado, illinois, and purdue (7). and then i can assume one win out of UW, @NW, and minnesota (8). this leaves expected losses to two of the previous three, iowa, and penn state. subtract 1, and i see us going 7-5.

it certainly wouldn’t shock me if we exceeded 7. the optimism is there for another 2008, but i think we will need another year or two before anyone outside of homers like me can realistically expect more than 8 wins.

by robb. on Apr 29, 2010 2:59 PM CDT reply actions

I voted 8

Completely uneducated at this point (ie. haven’t read Phil Steele) looking at the schedule, I can see nine wins, but of course you never know.

SEPT. 4 WESTERN MICHIGAN- Win. Blowout last year, WMU loses Hiller
SEPT. 11 FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Ford Field, Detroit)-Win
SEPT. 18 NOTRE DAME-Winnish. Brian Kelly does worry me, but in EL, they lose Emu and Golden Tate.
SEPT. 25 NORTHERN COLORADO-Win
OCT. 2 WISCONSIN-Losish, Wiscy lost a bit from last year, I think, but should still be strong.
OCT. 9 AT MICHIGAN-Winnish, them losing their best players on D ought to compensate for likely improvement on offense.
OCT. 16 ILLINOIS (Homecoming)- Win.
OCT. 23 AT NORTHWESTERN-Winnish. We seem to play our best bend-but-don’t break D against NW.
OCT. 30 AT IOWA- Loss. They’re the obvious 1b in the conference.
NOV. 6 MINNESOTA-Winnish. The only reason I put ish is last year’s surprising barrage.
NOV. 20 PURDUE-Winnish, but I think they’ll be better than people think.
NOV. 27 AT PENN STATE-Lossish. PSU lost a lot, but by the end of the year their talented, but inexperienced players will be more like experienced players.

So, four wins, five winnish, two lossish and one loss. If you divide that and carry the one, it comes out to 8-4.

More generally about the team, the bullets all sound reasonable.

Position ratings without having even watched all the spring game:

Very Good:
QB-Capable starting QB returning, one proven backup, two talented youngsters
WR-Dell, Cunningham, Martin, I’d stack that against a lot of receiving corps in MSU history. Plenty of depth behind them, too. Maybe we should go back to running a Dave Baldwin-style spread?
TE-Stacked, again. Not enough passes for all the talented people to catch them.
LB-A reportedly better-covering, bigger, stronger Greg Jones, fellow four-year starter in Eric Gordon, very talented now with experience Chris Norman, young talent (Allen, Bullough, reportedly Gholston will be a LB), vet backup (Misch), others like Gardiner and Hammock.
P-Bates.
SN-I’ve not had any reason to learn senior Alex Shackleton’s name in his time as MSU’s long snapper.

Good:
RB-Caper and Baker looked good last year, healthy through the spring at least. Hill showed a flash or two, Bell got some positive notice. Depth is probably a bit of a worry after the exodus.
FB-Rouse returning is a good thing, he’s seemed like a more powerful lead blocker than Andrew Hawken was, but less good out of the backfield.

Fair:
DT-Worthy looked beastly at times, so did Treadwell, Pickelman has added needed size, Dan France and Micajah Reynolds got spring props. JUCO kid Anthony White is nose tackle-sized. There’s two good DTs in that group.

Worrisome:
DE-Neely and Hoover return with experience, Drone is exciting in that he’s now Big 10-sized.
Oline-Less experience (one starter, one starter in a new position, one with starting experience back) even than last year (three-full time starters, no experienced backups). Depth is worrisome, could have three redshirt freshmen second-stringers.
CB-C.L. Rucker and Johnny Adams sound like good starters. Depth is scary, likely redshirt frosh and true frosh as second-string.
S-Hyde and Robinson, both sound good on paper, some experience, but we all saw the secondary last year and the depth is only a bit better than CB (Jesse Johnson has proved himself smart and capable on special teams)
K- Muma and Conroy are not (yet) Brett Swenson. Kickoffs were already a problem. Maybe Bates or touted frosh punter Mike Sadler can kick off?

by witless chum on Apr 30, 2010 11:34 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs

Ugh....

I hate this prediction, but I just don’t see us getting over 7. The let down defensive scheme is getting a possible tweak to a 3-4, but is it still going to be Cover 4 all the time? If so, expect mediocre offenses (Purdue, MN) to put up huge numbers again.

MSU will also be about running the ball, and if the o-line is not up to the job of that and pass protection it will result in a more mediocre offense.

I also think some teams will be better, most notably Michigan. A game MSU dominated and barely won will now be on the road. FAU is also a tough one, they have gone to bowl games several years in a row and we barely beat them the last time we played on a rainy day in EL.

Penn State is probably the biggest question mark on the schedule. If they have a QB by the end of the season that will be a loss, if their QB is terrible all year, that can end up being a close game. Obviously we won’t know more until the season starts.

by DrDetroit on May 4, 2010 8:14 AM CDT reply actions

voted 8

Ok, I had a longer, more in-depth comment ready, but I ran out of battery so it got deleted. Overall, based on the MSU spring game and articles I have read, the Spartans should be a better team at QB, RB, DL, LB, and WR. They will be similar to last year at DB, and OL. I don’t think any position got worse in particular, so MSU should be a better team overall. That being said, I’m guessing 8 wins in the regular season based on the schedule. There are two games that I am almost sure they will lose, which is @Iowa and @Penn State. Wisconsin will be a tough game, so realistically I’ll put that game in the loss category. ND, Mich, and ND are games I can see them losing, but if they lost two of those three, I would be suprised, so I’ll go with losses to Wisc, Iowa, Penn State, and one of the last three, putting them at 8-4. ND is going to be the game that sets the tone for the season, and if the Spartans come out strong there, I could see a 10-2 season if all goes well. There isn’t an opponent on the schedule that State CAN’T beat, but years upon years of football statistics don’t lie. They are most likely not going to do better than 9-3. So my realistic (yet somewhat optimistic) prediction rests at 8-4, give or take a win.

by Tim Swiatkowski on May 4, 2010 2:55 PM CDT reply actions