Where I Come From: Expectations For the Season
by Pete Rossman on Jul 12, 2010 10:01 AM CDT
in EA Sports NCAA FB 11
46 comments
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While the off-season's more than halfway over, the college football season is still weeks away. That hasn't stopped me from speculating about the season. Here's what I hope to see:
- For the defense to try flavors other than vanilla. Most fans could tell problems were present with the defensive play-calling last season, especially since Tim Brewster and Danny Hope said variations of "we knew exactly what the defense was going to do". Whether Pat Narduzzi thought a base 4-3 could work against spread offenses or if he was trying to hide a lack of talent on defense, it didn't work. It'd be nice to see the defense show a nickel set-up on obvious passing downs, but I'd settle for seeing an 11-man blitz on 1st down at midfield, if only to show signs of original thought are present. The talk of giving more of a 3-4 look is hopeful (if William Gholston's as advertised, I can't imagine someone better suited for the linebacker/defensive end hybrid). However, I'll believe it when I see it.
- For a kicker to emerge and consistently make field goals up to 40 yards. Whether that's Kevin Muma, Dan Conroy, or even Mike Sadler, so long as somebody can convert short to intermediate range field goals at an 80% clip, I'll be happy. Don't make me bring up John Goss as a cautionary tale.
- For Keith Nichol to turn 3rd downs into 1st downs. He doesn't need to be a deep threat, since Mark Dell, Keshawn Martin and B.J. Cunningham can already stretch the secondary. If his role is limited to catching the 10 yard curl, slant, or out on a 3rd and 7, I'll be happy with that.
- For Kirk Cousins to take a page out of the Brian Hoyer playbook. Specifically, the page titled "Know when to take a sack". Hoyer could be absolutely maddening at times when he'd buckle under a defensive lineman, losing yards and a down. Conversely, discretion is the better part of valor, and sometimes it's better to live to fight another day rather than get possessed by the ghost of Drew Stanton and wing the ball indiscriminately down the field. Cousins didn't have many interceptions this year, but some of them were either costly (the one that ended the Notre Dame game), or deep in the opponents' end (2nd half of the Michigan game, where a field goal could've essentially sealed a victory).
- For Keshawn Martin to have multiple touchdowns passing, running, receiving, and in kick returns. More wishful thinking than expectation, but how sweet would this be? Assuming the offensive play calling is as aggressive as it's been in past seasons, there's a chance for Keshawn "HACKNEYED NICKNAME HERE (my choice is rocket)" Martin to achieve this.
- For Greg Jones to improve his pass defense and win the Butkus award. Pass defense is the one dimension Jones needs to add to become a truly great linebacker. If he can do that, the Skandalaris building better be prepared to add a new wing for all the hardware he'll win.
Those are my expectations, what are yours?
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6-6...
I expect to see the same MSU football product I’ve been watching for many years. We’ll see MSU hang with opponents that should destroy them and MSU’s defense make absolutely wretched offenses look like they are all-world.
season
from a win loss expectation my expectations are a 9-3 season. and we shoudl flirt with the b10 championship.
i would love to see nichol develop into a “go to” receiver in tough situations. along with martin/dell/cunningham being the type of deep threat, dominating type play maker. one of those three needs to be somewhat spectacualar – thats what i expect.
defensiveley, anything better than last year is what i expect. at least guarding someone on passing downs would be great. and of course stay staunch on the run D.
Just two commenters in
and we have already successfully set the lower and upper bounds of a 95% confidence interval!
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Jul 12, 2010 11:05 AM CDT reply actions
from my perspective
if any season we are going to have a good one. now is it. UM has been down. if we can win the games were supposed to and that include ND. then get a win at UM and arguably the second best b10 team in wisco at home… thatll be a 6-0? start? i think thats doable. we were nearly there last year. granted losses are losses no matter how close. but win those close ones and whammy, there we are.
"if we can win the games were supposed to"
Here is the big problem. MSU isn’t historically great at winning the games they’re ‘supposed to’. For example – see CMU last year.
Hey bro,
I think someone took your picture at one of the games last year:
http://exburgher.com/art/stories/July06/MajorLeague2/RandyQuaidXOut.jpg
I've suggested in the past that the CMU loss was a direct result of scheduling a I-AA school for the opener.
Had we played a school with a pulse in the opener we would have been more prepared to handle some adversity in game 2. Dan Le-what’s his face was a NFL caliber QB. MSU jr. did not prepare us for him.
Hopefully after we play Northern Colorado Community College for the Blind this year we will never, ever, ever, ever, ever play a I-AA school again. Ever.
I would recommend boycotting the NCCCB game this year, but that never works. It would be nice if the stands were somewaht empty for the game so that the athletic department understands how unacceptable it is to schedule that kind of game.
+1
For taking the words right off my keyboard.
As it turns out
The Football Outsiders College Football Almanac actually has the odds of MSU finishing between 6 and 9 wins (inclusive range) at 88%.
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Jul 13, 2010 9:42 AM CDT up reply actions
Same as the last couple of seasons
The O-Line has not been able to blow OSU/PSU level teams off the line, ergo, 9-3/8-4.
KJ – Need a Chi square test to confirm “goodness of fit”.
I think
going 8-4 is a realistic goal for this team.
If the defense can get back to what it was in 2008
There’s not a single game on the schedule where I think MSU has no shot. However, the defense won’t get that good so I think 8-4 including wins over Michigan and Notre Dame is a reasonable, attainable goal.
Light a man a fire, he'll stay warm for a day.
Light a man afire, he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
Expectations
I think 9-3 is a realistic top end goal.
The offense should score plenty of points. This is the deepest they have been at the skill positions since I have been following the team.
The O-line is the question mark as they lost a few guys from a unit that was only average in my opinion last year. If they can consistently provide just a little larger creases for the running game the offense could be the best in the B10.
I think you saw them stay in their base defense on passing downs because of a lack of depth in the secondary. I don’t think Narduzzi had a lot of faith in going to his 3rd or 4th best corners. Unfortunately I still think there are more questions than answers back there. It would also help the secondary out if we could generate more pressure on the opposing team without blitzing.
I love Greg Jones, but you don’t want your middle linebacker leading your team in sacks. Worthy should be even more of a beast. Gholston might provide that outside rush. I don’t know if it will be Neely, Anderson, Strayhorn, or somebody else though, we need somebody who can get back to the qb.
With expansion bringing a Nebraska team that will be really competitive right away next season, and with OSU off our schedule this is a golden opportunity to compete for a B10 title. It would be nice if we could take advantage of it.
by trivialstuff16 on Jul 12, 2010 12:47 PM CDT reply actions
"Would be nice" is the story of MSU football over the last 40+ years
Once again, MSU looks pretty good on paper; lighter than normal schedule, lots of skill on offense, some experience and talent on defense, etc.
However, have we learned nothing about MSU football? The kicker situation is questionable at best; we all remember the last time we were in that boat. And how long can Narduzzi last without getting fired? I think that is the question of the year; we didn’t have the most talent in the world on defense last year, but never have I seen someone do less with more talent than the Nard dog last year.
I hope we get more than 7 wins, but I don’t think that’s really all that realistic.
"It's a trap!"
by AdmiralAkbar on Jul 12, 2010 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Kicking game
Muma is an absolute monster, book it. Scouted the kid in high school; as long as he has the savvy to nail the chip shots, the distance is outrageous.
He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named had outrageous distance too
Unfortunately, his accuracy left a little something to be desired (I swear he actually kicked one out the side of the end zone). The result was the kicking debacle known as 2005.
Man...
Lots of pessimism on the boards today, and I’m a pessimistic person when it comes to Michigan State football. I think my LOW expectations for this season are 8-4, and my UPPER expectations are 10-2…
Exciting offense, potentially punishing defense. Guys seem to have a chip on their shoulder. Could be something out of the 1999 teams diary about to happen here. The schedule is favorable, this is EASILY the most talented team Coach D has had. 10-2 is not out of the question. Losses to Wiscy and Penn State?
Possible losses, ranked from most to least likely
- Iowa: it’s an away game, and they’ll be very tough on defense.
- Michigan: Another away game, and I’d bet on it being close.
- Notre Dame: Yes they lose Clausen, but they have a competent coach now.
I’m expecting 8-4. I’ll be mildly disappointed with 7-5, and pleasantly suprised with anything above 9-3.
by Pete Rossman on Jul 12, 2010 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Defense
I have no problem having optimism on our offensive game; I think if anything it will be improved from last year, barring any “rotating QB” shenanigans.
While we have some punishing players on our D, I just don’t see how you can be optimistic about the D this year. We have the same boneheaded coordinator that drove the plane into the mountain last year, we have the same suspect secondary and we have the same “run punishing / pass coverage lite” linebacker corps. Not to think that we are going to be coming out of this year with a losing record, but I think any opposing coach with 3/4 of a brain simply runs play action over the middle or 5 yard outs until the final whistle.
"It's a trap!"
by AdmiralAkbar on Jul 12, 2010 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions
D
youd think a player like mylan hicks or isiah lewis might be able to help out the depth issue. i dont know anythin about their red shirt statuses. even someone like keith mumphrey could play to help with size and speed. granted all these people are freshman. but thats what depth is. also the improvement of chris norman. i guess the d has to be better over last years team. i think its impossible for it to be the same or worse.
“Guys seem to have a chip on their shoulder” that can go a long way.
Won't matter if Narduzzi sticks to the same idiotic scheme
When you’re putting a linebacker in man coverage against WRs, you’re doomed. When you play prevent at any time other than “up two scores with 20 seconds left”, you’re doomed. When you blitz eight guys on four plays in a row, you’re doomed.
If Narduzzi has learned his lessons, this could be a great year. If he has not … well, we’re doomed. (“Doom” being a relative term here, as in struggling to get to Detroit.)
After Last Year..
After last year, I am starting to think that our D has less of a “talent issue”, and more of a “coaching issue”. I think everyone who watched last year grimaced almost every game as our players were put in a position to fail all the time? Will that change this year?
"It's a trap!"
I think it's more of a
failure to adapt issue than anything else. The run defense was decent last year, it was that against spread teams, there was seemingly no change in the plan.
by Pete Rossman on Jul 12, 2010 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions
I know, but
I haven’t seen that kind of “there’s no way they could go for another 5 yard out again, amirite?!?!” thinking since late in the George Perles era*. Sure, Narduzzi could wake up this morning and decide to innovate and adapt his defensive schemes, but I am just doubting that is going to happen. Even “non-spread” teams figured out these weaknesses by the end of the year and were completely exploiting them.
- This was admittedly more of the “They could never stop power I off tackle 3 times in a row, amirite?!?” variety, but you get the point.
"It's a trap!"
by AdmiralAkbar on Jul 12, 2010 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions
It's the same...
…philosophy, I think, of stop the run first. That’s the point of staying in a 4-3 when teams go to a a spread with three or four wideouts, to keep the run defense solid. That scheme can work, OSU will often do the same thing, and it worked better during the first two years of Dantonio regime. It worked very well against Northwestern the last two years, oddly, because they were obviously a better team than Purdue or Minnesota.
I’ll remain optimistic that they’ll be able to cross some teams up this year by using the 3-4 and get some better pressure on the QB. That, to me, is the culprit for much of the problems last year. If you get decent pressure rushing four, then you LBs in short zones can be effective against slot wide recievers, but if the QB has a lot of time, it’s a problem.
by witless chum on Jul 13, 2010 6:07 AM CDT up reply actions
Sticking to the 4-3 works ...
… if, and only if, you can stop the pass with just your base secondary. We could maybe get away with that with Otis Wiley at safety. With last year’s matadors (and nonexistent pass rush) … not so much.
12-0
Believe and Expect…
I didn’t grow up in Michigan so I don’t know when or why so many “fans” for MSU turned so pessimistic and earned their reputations as “typical”. I’m guessing it happened sometime in the early 80’s or early 90’s. However, the below is the way I roll… laugh if you want — though I’ll welcome other believers. Thanks Tbone for your own expectations.
I expect MSU to go 12-0 (+) in football this year. Just as the last several years I’ve been expecting the hoops team to win the National Championship and Hockey to go back to the Frozen Four and win their championship.
I BELIEVE at some point between now and the start of the season someone will tug at Coach Dantonio’s sleeve and say something like, “Hey, there’s some guy on one of these fan sites who believes MSU Football will go 12-0… he actually expects it,” and coach will know it is not mocking. I believe Greg Jones, William Gholston, Chris L. Rucker, Marcus Hyde, Eric Gordon, Colin Neely, and Jarel Worthy are challenging each other to become bigger, faster, stronger, and tighter as a unit and are pushing the entire defense beyond wherever they thought their limits were previously. I expect more vomit to be spilled in practices this summer than those guys have ever seen before in their lives. I believe Kirk Cousins, Andrew Maxwell, Joe Boisture, Mark Dell, BJ Cunningham, Larry Caper, Edwin Baker, Keith Nichol, KeShawn Martin, Charlie Gantt, Dion Simms, Brian Linthicum are not just doing the same, but they are driving themselves in competition with the defense… to make everybody better – knowing the best challenge for a “weak” secondary is to go up against the best receiving corps in the Nation. I believe the right side of the O-line knows people doubt and wants to earn respect and will do so first in the weightroom with Coach Mannie, then on the practice field—challenging the “established” left-side, maybe with pride contests based on who gives up the first sack in practice, or wind sprints, or who can hold off Greg Jones the longest… I believe the team has student-athlete leadership like it’s not had in years with the embarrassment of last season’s “incident” putting a mark on everyone’s chin which every member of the team knows they need to repay. I believe the leaders will have every member of the team focused more on being a teammate than on being a thug or someone just wearing the jersey to get laid. I believe someone from the secondary this summer will be toiling upwards through the night while others sleep so that he can earn his teammates’ trust and respect as much as Kirk and Greg Jones, and so that he can surprise Spartan Nation. I believe someone else won’t want to put in the effort and will quit. I believe Coach Dantonio and Coach Narduzzi are aware of all the comments about the defensive play calling and heartbreaking moments experienced the last couple of years and are planning a few special things with the 3-4… I believe at the start of the summer practice and before each game the players will line up to walk arm in arm down the length of the field but will also walk down the line the width of the field, one at a time, look each other in the eye and tell each other, " I am your brother and I will bleed for you this day and I will give everything for you this day. You have made me stronger, and we will win this." I expect they will believe these words themselves. I believe the Spartans this year have the talent and opportunity to win like never before and they will find the heart to do so, digging deeper within themselves than they ever have before. I also expect a few random moments as a team not seen before—maybe November 6th after the game vs Minnesota the whole football team goes to cheer the Volleyball team against Penn State, maybe sleeping out in Spartan Stadium under the stars, maybe starting a whole new tradition… maybe each player will just carry his head high each Monday knowing he gave his all in practice and on the field and took his shot and succeeded or failed. I expect Spartan Nation to cheer for him either way.
I expect the some of you will believe in none of this, which is really too bad, but this is what I expect of the Spartans in 2010…
by Withshieldoronit on Jul 12, 2010 5:42 PM CDT reply actions
Paragraphs are nice.
And helpful for readers. Unless you were going for a stream of consciousness type thing.
Don't stop him
He’s on a roll
"It's a trap!"
by AdmiralAkbar on Jul 12, 2010 9:22 PM CDT up reply actions
You are the world's biggest optimist
If they were aware of the comments about the defense, I’d have expected them to react a little more quickly than a full season too late. In fact, Narduzzi made reference to such comments last year … and things didn’t improve.
Speak it, 'shield!!
You are a proud son of East Lansing. If the boys are half this motivated, they are going to be just fine, and my Saturdays are going to be pretty fun and plenty proud no matter what.
9-3 win/loss
It could be easy to do. First 7 games are all home games, Detroit and Ann Arbor included, (we own them). We then go to NW at Evanston which should be number 8 before heading to Iowa. A toss up win/loss there sends us back home (8-1 for Purdue and Minny. Call it 1-1 so we are now 9-2 headed to PSU. Get the ball bouncing right and we end with 10-2 before the bowl. A bowl game is on the schedule. We’ve got the players to get it done.
I'd like to see 9-3.
Wins over ND (hopefully big) and UM. A bowl win. An impressive bowl win. Preferably over an ESS EEE SEE team.
You said the G-word
Why did you say the G-word? AAAARGH nightmares of watching kicks missing by 30 yards every week. Must … watch … ’07 hockey highlights to make the bad memories go away.
I'm on the 9-3 train.....
…..with losses expected to Wiscy, Iowa, and Penn State. We’ll probably end up winning one of those games, and dropping one to ND or NW to finish at 9-3.
I expect Cunningham to be have a breakout year at receiver. Dude has shown flashes, but needs consistency. With all the threats on offense, I think he’ll get a lot more open looks and catch 70 balls for 950 yards, 8 TDs.
Defense will struggle again, but not nearly as bad as last year. The spread teams will still tear us up yardage wise, but we’ll get some more turnovers to offset the yardage. We’ll be tough against the run, and get a little better pass rush, but the secondary will still be torched in several games- mainly due to scheme/coaching issues rather than personnel. Narduzzi will be fired after the season.
Offense will be a beautiful thing to watch. I expect Cousins to be the best QB in the conference: 3300 yards, 28TDs, 7 INTs. But Terrelle Pryor will get all the pub and make first team all-conference.
Cunningham...
NEEDS to step up. He’s been able to blend in to easy in the background. He and Dell need to really put the weight of the passing game on the shoulders if our offense is going to be successful. They say a good running game opens up the pass, I think its the opposite. If you have down field threats, that stops teams from stacking the box and gives you maybe a guy or 2 less for the O-Line to worry about picking up. Guys like Caper, and Baker, and Martin should feed off the 2 outside guys drawing coverage away from the line.
As much as secondary is going to be important (a good front 7 can make an average secondary look great), I think the key to success this season rests on how well BJ and Mark can pull a DB or Linebacker away from the play at the start. If they don’t establish themselves as legit threats, it could go from a 10-2/9-3 season to 6-6 very quickly.
"guys like Caper, and Baker, and Martin"
Don’t forget about Nick Hill frosh. He’s speedy and fun to watch. I doubt he redshirts this yr.
by jumpinjohnnyg on Jul 13, 2010 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions
You think Narduzzi will be fired after a 9 win season?
I think this is kind of an either / or situation; if we manage to win 9 games, I think he hangs on to his job even if we win games by scores like 45-42
"It's a trap!"
by AdmiralAkbar on Jul 13, 2010 10:20 AM CDT up reply actions
If the team wins 9 games...
I don’t care what the scores are.
If we keep hemorrhaging points on D......
……even in wins, you can’t keep Narduzzi around. I really think they have serious scheme issues with their pass coverage, and have for the last couple years.
At some point, you gotta make a change.
I agree
But Dantonio seems to really like him for some reason. I was surprised to not see more action out of him on defensive topics last season.
"It's a trap!"
by AdmiralAkbar on Jul 13, 2010 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions
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