How much can we expect from Keith Appling as a freshman?
by KJ@theonlycolors on Aug 18, 2010 11:23 PM CDT
in Michigan State Spartans Basketball
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PrintIt's now been just over two weeks since Chris Allen's career as a Spartan was terminated. As I've contemplated the fallout from that event, it still seems to me that the biggest impact will be on the freshman season of Keith Appling. Appling goes from the second perimeter player off the bench to the first--if not a potential starter, with Korie Lucious coming off the bench. It's hard to see a scenario where he doesn't play at least 20 minutes per game right off the bat. Appling comes in very highly touted, but that's still a pretty high-pressure situation to step into on a team hoping to contend for a national title.
So what can we reasonably expect from Appling? Projecting the performance of incoming freshmen is obviously not a scientific task, but we can look back at what other freshman guards who have been asked to play substantial minutes for MSU have done in recent years. A table showing key offensive stats for freshman guards who have played more than 15 minutes/game for Tom Izzo over the last 10 years is after the jump (I've deemed Alan Anderson and Raymar Morgan to be full-fledged forwards, BTW).
| Player | Year | Min/G | Pts/G | Off Rtg | Poss% | eFG% | 2pt% | 3pt% | FTR | FT% | Assist% | TO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalin Lucas | 2008 | 25.1 | 10.3 | 104.3 | 25.1 | 46.2 | 44.5 | 36.4 | 29.6 | 76.8 | 30.0 | 19.9 |
| Travis Walton | 2006 | 18.7 | 1.8 | 94.7 | 10.5 | 40.5 | 40.0 | 33.3 | 47.1 | 72.0 | 20.8 | 34.9 |
| Drew Neitzel | 2005 | 16.4 | 3.5 | 96.3 | 17.2 | 45.1 | 42.2 | 32.7 | 17.6 | 65.0 | 29.6 | 29.7 |
| Shannon Brown | 2004 | 22.9 | 7.9 | 98.2 | 21.0 | 48.9 | 48.3 | 34.1 | 29.2 | 80.7 | 11.4 | 22.3 |
| Maurice Ager | 2003 | 17.1 | 6.7 | 103.9 | 20.0 | 49.6 | 40.3 | 39.7 | 26.6 | 77.5 | 8.1 | 15.9 |
| Chris Hill | 2002 | 27.1 | 11.5 | 120.3 | 19.3 | 62.0 | 55.0 | 44.6 | 25.0 | 75.8 | 16.3 | 19.7 |
| Kelvin Torbert | 2002 | 25.1 | 8.2 | 98.8 | 19.8 | 43.8 | 48.3 | 31.6 | 29.3 | 80.6 | 11.8 | 20.4 |
| Marcus Taylor | 2001 | 22.0 | 7.4 | 100.2 | 21.8 | 44.0 | 45.6 | 27.1 | 19.8 | 74.4 | 27.3 | 25.2 |
Source: Statsheet
Bullets:
- Not a lot of offensive polish there. Only 4 of the 8 players had offensive ratings above 100, and only Chris Hill was above 105.*
- With the exceptions of Drew Neitzel and Travis Walton, all of the players were fairly involved in the offense, posting usage rates of at least 19.
- Taking Hill out of the equation, there aren't many good shooting numbers there. Shannon Brown and Kelvin Torbert were pretty good inside the arc (they were also the two guys with the most developed bodies coming in as freshmen). Maurice Ager and Kalin Lucas were pretty good from distance.
- Nobody was too assertive going to the rack. Travis Walton was the only player with a free throw rate above 30, but that was just a function of never shooting from the field.
- The ball-handling hasn't been terribly efficient. Marcus Taylor and Neitzel passed the ball productively, but also turned it over frequently. Hill was adequate. Ager, Brown, and Torbert didn't attempt too many passes. Walton spent a lot of time tossing the ball to the other team.
- Kalin Lucas is the model: High usage rate, adequate shooting numbers, very good ball-handing figures. Can't ask a non-John-Wallian point guard to do much more than he did as a freshman.
Overall, it's not really an encouraging picture. To be an efficient piece of the offensive puzzle for this season's Spartan team, Appling will need to exceed the median performance of freshman guards at MSU over the last decade. The positive spin is that, of all the players on the list below, Appling may compare best to Lucas--a player with less impressive size who can nevertheless overcome contact to score off the dribble.
Further, while Appling will be asked to play substantial minutes as a freshman, he may be be able to get away with a lower usage rate than most of the players listed above. Lucas, Durrell Summers, and Draymond Green will take care of the playmaking. Appling just needs to knock down open shots and--even more importantly--avoid mistakes on defense.
Bigger picture, the goal will be to replicate the freshman seasons of Taylor and Neitzel: get to the Final Four despite relying on an inexperienced (and perhaps inefficient) contributor in the back court. Of course, this team has its sights set even higher than a Final Four appearance. Mr. Appling, your future awaits. Now.
*Looking at his statistical profile, I have to say that Chris Hill had a somewhat underrated career. He never posted an offensive rating below 110, with higher usage rates than you normally see from a 3-point specialist. Even as a senior, when he went through the epic 3-point shooting slump that eventually led to Drew Neitzel starting at point guard, Hill posted a very good offensive rating of 119.2, thanks to a stellar assist rate of 31.6.
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Comparing only against MSU's freshman is a bit narrow
Yes – same coach, same program = but Freshman guards have clearly played enormous factors across the country
As for Appling – I’ve seen him as a So/Jr/Sr (albeit no more than 2 games a season) and he’s going to shatter a lot of the stats indicated above. Part is of course due to circumstance, but he brings a slashing / shot creating presence that we haven’t seen in a while. In fact, I’m struggling to really thing of one (Kalin is a much different player, IMO.)
At the end of the day though, his shooting is going to be a HUGE factor for him, and for this team. Just like you said – so that really is the biggest factor for KA. I think we’ll see him playing off the ball for the most part, so he’s going to have plenty of opportunities.
I think he means Appling will be similar to Lucas in terms of production, not style
Ooonst ooonst muthafucka!
Really, not a perfect comp on the list
Better ball-handler than Ager. Not as big as Brown/Torbert. Less of a pure point guard than Lucas.
I haven’t seen him play, so I’m going purely on what I’ve read. Hopefully, crow13’s assertion is on target. My hope that is that his game has an adaptability like Lucas’.
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Aug 19, 2010 8:06 AM CDT up reply actions
offensive scheme
It sounds like you guys are suggesting all he will have to do is be a spot up shooter his frosh year. If thats true, then why not bump Byrd’s minutes? Isn’t he supposed to be the specialist of the bunch? Plus he has the size to be on the floor with guys like Lucas and Lucious.
Well, that sentence was something of an oversimplification
I think a player with athleticism is more likely to be able to adapt to the college game right away in terms of ball-handling and defense. Byrd will definitely get a shot, though.
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Aug 19, 2010 8:03 AM CDT up reply actions
I think that Appling
will start by coming off the bench. If he proves his worth I could see him starting by the end of the year, just like Lucas and Neitzel. And I dont expect him to see that much time at the point this year, although hell get a little. I predict well get about 5 maybe 6 ppg out of him with a couple big games here and there where he drops 15 maybe even 20. Frankly that production isn’t that much worse than Allens (I covered this in a fanpost I wrote so I wont get too detailed here with stats and all) and his contributions along with the other freshmen, and the development of other players should more than make up for Allen offensively. The real test will be if he can handle playing defense in the Big Ten. I worry about that MUCH more.
Ooonst ooonst muthafucka!
Appling may be a huge determing factor in this season
If you check out one of Rexrode’s blogs, the team may not have much choice. Byrd is still out for another month with his foot injury and Thornton has suffered a back injury. Not a lot of details on AT but it may be more than just a bump. Definitely going to set Byrd back in making a large dent in playing time.
For starting, it’s Appling or Lucious. I’ll be very impressed if MSU can reach their potential and goals with a primary backcourt of Lucas, Lucious, and Summers. That’s not a great deal of size. Still, Korie is a guy who could take a jump his junior year after last year’s experience.
interesting season ahead
Defense will really be the issue, as this team will put points on the board (whether or not Appling contributes more than marginally). Between losing the best two defenders from last year, being so short at guard, and not having a legitimate shot blocking center, I just don’t see this team being great defensively.
All that talent! All that uncertainty! It sure will be an interesting season, and I’m looking forward to it. I do really wonder about the preseason ranking though…
No shot blocking center?
That’s probably the only thing that we can DEFINITELY count on Adreian Payne to bring. Don’t get me wrong, he’ll bring more than just that but shot-blocking…that’s his calling card.
by LickSplickidy on Aug 20, 2010 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions
I think he'll have to play
and if he approaches Chris Hill levels from the perimeter (or even Ager levels) we’ll be in great shape. It will be great if he can create off the dribble and finish with contact a la Lucas, but if he plays adequate D, doesn’t hemmorage turnovers, and hits a timely 3 pointer now and then that will be enough. We have Summers and Lucas for finishing around the rim.
I still think we’ll see a “backcourt” of Lucas/Lucious, Summers at shooting guard, and Green at small forward a substantial part of the time. This would be an effective lineup against teams that don’t really have a PG who poses a threat to score off the dribble, because Green won’t be quite the defensive liability off a switch. We’ll need some height on the perimeter against some of the teams on our schedule and Green is really the only guy that can provide it.
Anderson
AA played exclusivly in the backcourt until much later in his career. He even started at the point as a freshmen durring an injury to Taylor. You can concider him what ever you want but he didn’t spend a minute in the front court as a freshman.
Exaggeration
Anderson played mainly at the 3 spot as a freshman—not a post player, but not a major ball-handler, either. He played the point very well when called upon (mainly as a sophomore/junior) but was not a natural guard. If you’d like to draw some sort of parallel between him and Appling coming out of high school, please proceed.
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Aug 19, 2010 1:10 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
The mysterious "3"
Related but off-topic – I am not an X’s and O’s guy, I always confess. However, I’ve had people chastise me for suggesting that there’s a distinction in Izzo’s offense between wing positions or even post positions. They claim that it’s pretty irrelevant to discuss a “3” vs. a “2” in the MSU offense.
At the same time, Izzo uses that terminology frequently – certainly when discussing new recruits on signing day or looking at match-ups for an upcoming game.
So, I’ve always been a little confused about MSU’s offense. Does it actually have a “3” or “small forward” or not?
"Wing" vs. 3
You typically will see “wing” used when talking about the fast break. One is on each side they have indistinguishable responsibilities on offense. When you are running a half court set you’re more likely to see a difference in the responsibilities. (For example the 2 is usually your secondary ball handler and the 3 is responsible for screening for the ball handler, or something similar). So the answer is that MSU does have a 3 whether it matters would depend on the set you were running.
Distinction
I think you’re basically right in terms of Xs and Os, but there are differences in the areas in which players produce. Look at Anderson’s career numbers on Statsheet. His rebounding numbers are higher as a freshman and senior (when there were two point guards on the roster); his passing numbers were higher in the other two years.
Again, I just don’t think he’s particularly relevant to this discussion, which is about how players recruited as guards have adapted as freshmen.
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Aug 19, 2010 5:30 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Not a natural guard?
Anderson was the secondary ball handler for the team that year for most of the season. Chris Hill was very much a spot up shooter as a freshman and did handle the ball some but not any more that Anderson. He was never a long distance shooter but he was one of the better ball handler, slasher and midrange shooters MSU has seen. I don’t know what more you’re looking for in a guard. Don’t get him confused with Morgan, they were very different players early in their careers. That is a case of convergent evolution. Even as a senior often times you’d see Alan play in the backcourt on offense and Trannon would play the post then they would switch for D.
Missing the silver lining
Sure, Appling will be good, and sure, he probably will have underwhelming stats in his first year. But I think you’re missing the point of Izzo teams here with these stats. Izzo’s teams have been successful, period. He doesn’t need to rely on one-and-done freshmen to buoy his teams’ successes. Players are developed so that they’re better at the end of their career than at the beginning. And Appling, Byrd, and Payne are coming in as highly ranked freshmen to fit in with the very good team that made it to the Final Four last season even without Kalin Lucas. If Indiana had guys like Delvon Roe, Draymond Green, Durrell Summers, Lucas, and Korie Lucious… well, I wouldn’t be fretting about just how less-than-totally awesome my incoming McDonald’s All-American guard was going to be.
I did sort of make that point
in the 2nd-to-last paragraph, no?
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Aug 19, 2010 12:56 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
D'oh!
Ah, you did make that point, I just skimmed over after the reading the rest of the article. MSU looks great for next season- Chris Allen was surprisingly sub-par, efficiency-wise, and Appling & Byrd were probably going to eat most of his minutes by tourney-time.
Btw, defense – Allen had the lowest KenPom steal percentage of any supposed perimeter “stopper” in the Big Ten for the last few years. Allen was at 1.1% last year whereas almost every other stopper I can think of (Nash, Nolen, Kramer) was north of 3%. We don’t have a lot to go on for defensive stats, but I suspect the loss of Allen won’t hurt as bad as MSU fans might fear.
Our defensive system doesn't emphasize turnovers
No one here is putting Allen in the same category as the best perimeter defenders in the league, but he is arguably the best WE had, and would probably have been better than anything we can replace him with this year. He was not nearly as quick, strong or fundamentally sound as Travis Walton, but he could do 3 things adequately: stay in front of the other team’s main perimeter threat to prevent dribble penetration, challenge 3pt shots, and switch when he needed to.
Walton as a Junior only had a 2.4 steal percentage but no one would have called him a lackluster defender. We’re perpetually well below the D1 average in steal percentage – we sacrifice it to seal off penetration and contest shots. Ideally Appling will be a sufficient defender right off the bat, or we’ll get better D from Lucas, Lucious and Summers to make up for the loss.
Don’t take our concerns for absolute pessimism – I’m pretty friggin optimistic about the upcoming season. I’d be even more optimistic if we had a little more backcourt depth, especially given Lucas’s injury situation, but the grass is very green even without Allen.
by TheCrestedHelm on Aug 20, 2010 8:33 AM CDT up reply actions
Yeah... but
it should and really is supposed to, we just DONT cause turnovers. Izzo likes to run with wing heavy teams like this. But you cant run without turnovers. Think about it.
Ooonst ooonst muthafucka!
I'd buy your argument if
the lack of turnovers were a one-year phenomenon last year. The fact is that, despite having some very good to excellent defensive players and teams over the Izzo era, we have never forced a large percentage of turnovers.
Ken Pomeroy has tempo free stats going back to 2003-04. We’ve finished in the top 30 in defensive efficiency in 5 of the 7 years he’s tracked stats for, and never finished higher than 108th in the nation in turnover percentage. Are you saying that one of the best coaches in college football has failed to get his team to execute his preferred defensive gameplan for 7 straight years?
I’m sure Izzo could get us to force a lot of turnovers if that is what he wanted from the team. Rebounding is a case in point – we’re always one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, because Izzo emphasizes rebounding. I’m sure if he emphasized forcing turnovers, we’d be just as successful at that, but he doesn’t, so we aren’t.
by TheCrestedHelm on Aug 23, 2010 9:33 AM CDT up reply actions
Defense and other Concerns
Obviously Appling is going to play some major minutes, and they need him to be competent defensively and maybe provide some spark on offense. But I don’t think Izzo will ask him to do too much, especially earlier in the season. Which is unfortunately when we will need him most.
I think we have to remember that there is still a big question mark surrounding Lucas. He’s coming off of a major injury. By all accounts he’s recovering nicely, but there is still no guarantee he’s going to be able to be the guy that consistently gets to the rim. or into the paint for pull up jumpers that we might be counting on. Especially early in the season. Hopefully I’m wrong, but I just think that if we’re trying to project how this team is going to do we can’t forget about this.
That’s why I think Lucious and Summers are going to be the keys to this team. They are the guys we can reasonably expect to make a major jump in production. Both have shown the talent to do it, but can we count on them game in and game out while Kalin gets back up to speed and Appling (and to a lesser extent Byrd) get acclimated. They need to do it both offensively and defensively.
I think both Summers and Lucious are athletic enough to pick be really good defenders, but they still need to prove it.
I mean we made it to the final four with those guys as the primary backcourt, so the potential is there. We just need to see it consistently.
Also, I agree that there are also questions about Draymond’s ability to stay with more athletic wings. But I have an irrational belief in this point that whatever Izzo asks his role to be he’ll find a way to get it done.
Lucas
If he can’t start at the beginning of the year (a possibility), the starting line-up could get really interesting. If Draymond isn’t on the wing (and I still vote no), it’s Lucious, Appling, Summers in the backcourt. Wild.
by intrpdtrvlr on Aug 19, 2010 10:01 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't think Lucas will be 100%
by the start of the season. Maybe by the time Big 10 play begins he’ll be close, but that is a whale of an injury to come back from, so he may not be back near his peak until late in the season. That situation would make ball handling a major concern. Lucious has not exactly been fantastic in that area (lets hope he improves). When Lucas went down with the ankle injury for a couple of games we didn’t even try Summers in that role, so that tells you all you need to know as far as him filling in as a primary ball handler, even in limited minutes. That leaves us with Appling as a potential option for significant minutes as a PG if Lucas’s minutes have to be limited while he’s still recovering.
by TheCrestedHelm on Aug 19, 2010 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions
But
according to Izzo and other sources, Lucas is progressing much faster than expected. I think hell be playing at about 75 percent to start and will be up to 100 by mid october at the latest.
Ooonst ooonst muthafucka!
freshman
im not counting on any freshman to provide any sort of filler role for a senior. i know appling is highly touted but again, he is 18 and has never played division one basketball. i do know that summers can shoot lights out, and out athlete just about anyone in the country. lucious carried the pg role for our team in the ncaa tournament, and he can shoot. green can bring the ball up the court and is a mismatch from the pg postions for anyone thats guarding him.
with those three, we have a very good team. assuming byrd is gonna jump in and play defense seems pretty radical. isnt he out with a foot injury currently? and to make matters worse, he is 18 nad has never played div one bball. Nix can guard big boys and hopefully roe has worked on his footwork. that will be crucial. more so than minutes for byrd and appling, two untested freshman, and one who is working on his own injury.
You know who else was 18 and never played D1 Ball?
John Wall, Carmelo Anthony, Derrick Rose, Greg Oden, Tyrus Thomas, Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon, OJ Mayo, Michael Beasley, Kevin Durant. And thats only playes that came in and were so good they immediately left. There are tons of impact freshman that DONT leave that year, but are still incredible players, i.e. Magic Johnson, heard of him? Now I understand that Appling may not be on that level, but to say that being 18 and never playing in college is simply stating a fact that really isn’t as crippling as you think. Many players make impacts as freshmen because they do acclimate themselves to the style of play and have the talent to do so.
Ooonst ooonst muthafucka!
you make my point for me
in fact you name every player he is not. i will move to iron mountain if appling is one and done. and really everyother player this post initially mentions thats played siginifcant minutes as a frosh have really unimpressive numbers, aside from chris hill and he is mostly forgotten.. his number numbers certainly will not comparable to John Wall, Carmelo Anthony, Derrick Rose, Greg Oden, Tyrus Thomas, Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon, OJ Mayo, Michael Beasley, Kevin Durant, and Magic Johnson—-(please dont patronize people, it makes you look immature).
theres a lot of mr. basketballs on that list up there…maybe one was an immediate star.
its simple fact. most to nearly all freshman are not total impact players that are going to carry a team. you should hope that our current juniors and seniors have put the work in and made the changes they need and hopefully appling can be a viable sub for 8-10 minutes a game, show some brilliance from time to time like lucas, walton, nietzel, brown, ager, hill, torbert, and taylor did.
when the games on the line, or even if theres some time but its tight, i want the ball in lucious, lucas, summers or greens hands. thinking other wise is pretty foolish.
Yeah...
What about Kalin Lucas as a freshman or E’Twaun Moore. How were they? Answer: pretty damn good. C’mon there are dozens upon dozens of true frosh that come in and are highly productive right off the bat and very few of them are one-and-done players.
by LickSplickidy on Aug 20, 2010 4:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Keyword: Most
I never said he would be one and done. I said he can easily make an impact despite being 18 and never playing D1 before. There is a lot to be said for experience yes, but talent can overcome a lot of rookie mistakes and inadequacies. I just feel that his lack of experience isnt a detriment as much as it is a simple fact. Hell get used to the style or he wont. Im expecting he does. And if he does than he will produce.
And its not patronization as much as hyperbole for effect when making a point. I apologize if you took offense.
Ooonst ooonst muthafucka!
Lineups
One thing that I think should be mentioned is that Izzo has, in the past, not put out the best 5 players at every position to start the game. He usually builds his lineups to get the most out of his team, which sometimes can mean having 1 or 2 guys capable of starting coming off the bench. If Byrd can play some defense, it wouldn’t surprise me if he starts. The last thing you want to do is put a shooter on the bench to get cold after warmups. Appling can get points any way he wants. A healthy lucas, Summers, Byrd, Roe and Nix would be a pretty good lineup out there. Then you can mix in frontcourt and backcourt guys like Loucious appling and Green together.
I agree with Crow13 ...
I think the kid is going to be special, he set the state scoring record in a championship game. He may be more like Shawn Respert, or, a mini-Magic/Skiles.
J Rich/2000 team
I know you limited it to guys who are more similar to Appling in terms of style. But I think an interesting comparison would be to a guy like Jason Richardson. And really there are some similarities to that 2000 team in general. I recognize, they don’t play the same game, but there are a lot of other similarities. Both were highly touted, (despite Appling’s AA status I think Jrich was a much bigger prospect). But both were coming in to a team coming off a final four trip, with a ton of veteran leadership. And actually both had to deal with injury questions to their point guard. If you recall, Cleaves got hurt early in that season and missed a month of time.
Well, here are jrich’s stats from that year, I’ll leave it to somebody with a better grasp of the more advanced stats you used above to compile them for him.
15.7 min/g, FG% .503, 3fg% .296, FT% .548, Reb 4.1, Pts. 5.1
His player bio on the msu athletics site said he scored in double figures 5 times, which I think is kind of important. That’s the type of impact I will be looking for from Appling. I don’t think we can or should expect him to be a primary scorer and ballhander every game. But I think we can expect him to have a handful of games where he can provide a lift. I’m picturing a mid january game against minnesota or penn state or something when Durrel is 1-9 and kalin is 2-7. Hopefully Appling will be able to pick those guys up and give us 12-15 points in those games when other guys are struggling.
by trivialstuff16 on Aug 19, 2010 12:32 PM CDT reply actions
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