Big Ten Basketball Bradley-Terry Projections: 7 Games In

Our last look showed Ohio State solidly at the top, Illinois-Wisconsin-Purdue as the second tier, and us at the head of a close pack fighting for fifth (and the only one of the pack with a realistic shot at moving up). Two weeks later ...

  Pom Rank Pom WPct BT Rank BT WPct MABT Rank MABT WPct
Ohio St 1 0.9823 1 0.9928 3 0.9855
Purdue 9 0.9669 14 0.9428 12 0.9693
Wisconsin 8 0.9682 16 0.9362 14 0.9665
Minnesota 42 0.8821 19 0.9289 31 0.9198
Michigan St 26 0.9251 23 0.9178 28 0.9236
Illinois 14 0.9444 25 0.9142 18 0.9545
Northwestern 48 0.8578 54 0.8365 37 0.9011
Penn St 53 0.8518 67 0.8073 63 0.8461
Michigan 66 0.8091 73 0.7939 62 0.8476
Indiana 69 0.8019 119 0.6245 97 0.7234
Iowa 81 0.7652 140 0.5718 108 0.6896

 

Relative to last time: Penn State has shot up the rankings (especially under Pomeroy's system), Minnesota (aided by a 3-0 record including a win over Purdue) has actually managed to jump us in one system (although that one also has us leapfrogging Illinois), and Michigan has slid back.

After the jump: Projections (ignoring home court, as always) and our win probabilities for every remaining game. Conference title projections are based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Basic Bradley-Terry (W-L Only)

Team WPct Current Average wins 18-0 15-3 or better 12-6 or better 9-9 or better 6-12 or worse 3-15 or worse Outright title Share of title
Ohio St 0.9928 7-0 17.26 45.99% 99.58% 1 - (1 in 1.08M) 1 - (1 in 238B) N/A N/A 98.80% 99.74%
Purdue 0.9428 6-1 12.38 N/A 5.47% 74.37% 99.79% 1 in 326k N/A 0.22% 0.85%
Wisconsin 0.9362 5-2 11.61 N/A 0.82% 54.35% 98.88% 1 in 11,900 N/A 0.04% 0.30%
Minnesota 0.9289 4-3 11.14 N/A 0.21% 41.07% 96.75% 0.07% N/A 0.00% 0.06%
Michigan St 0.9178 4-3 10.75 N/A 0.09% 30.07% 94.69% 0.12% N/A 0.00% 0.03%
Illinois 0.9142 4-3 10.54 N/A 0.06% 25.03% 92.64% 0.21% N/A 0.00% 0.02%
Northwestern 0.8365 3-5 7.40 N/A N/A 0.10% 21.22% 25.93% 0.11% 0.00% 0.00%
Penn St 0.8073 3-4 6.69 N/A N/A 0.05% 10.54% 45.87% 0.62% 0.00% 0.00%
Michigan 0.7939 1-6 5.33 N/A N/A 1 in 561k 1.31% 79.73% 9.38% 0.00% 0.00%
Iowa 0.5718 1-6 2.98 N/A N/A 1 in 919M 1 in 20,900 99.52% 68.58% 0.00% 0.00%
Indiana 0.6245 1-6 2.91 N/A N/A 1 in 8.96B 1 in 51,400 99.71% 71.43% 0.00% 0.00%

 

Ohio State's jumped out to a commanding lead (being unbeaten gives an enormous lead in these rankings unless there's a major difference in strength of schedule, and there isn't enough to overcome 3 losses for Purdue or more for everyone else). It appears to be a five-way battle for second place, with Purdue having about 3/4 of a game advantage over Wisconsin and all five in good shape to make the tournament (Illinois should be safe from a repeat of last year's fate - 10-8 and out - with a better non-conference schedule and better record against it). Northwestern and Penn State remain fringe bubble candidates at best, but if either can get to .500 they have a shot (Northwestern's non-conference schedule has little to recommend it but does include a win over Georgia Tech; Penn State's win over Duquesne is surprisingly valuable but losing to Maine may prove to be their doom). Michigan could fight their way into an NIT bid but it appears odds-against at this point.

Margin-Aware Bradley-Terry

Team WPct Current Average wins 18-0 15-3 or better 12-6 or better 9-9 or better 6-12 or worse 3-15 or worse Outright title Share of title
Ohio St 0.9855 7-0 15.93 9.26% 87.27% 99.92% 1 - (1 in 10.6M) N/A N/A 81.51% 92.06%
Purdue 0.9693 6-1 13.12 N/A 16.36% 87.45% 99.95% 1 in 2.08M N/A 5.24% 12.78%
Wisconsin 0.9665 5-2 12.38 N/A 5.12% 74.81% 99.73% 1 in 87,100 N/A 1.94% 6.00%
Illinois 0.9545 4-3 11.28 N/A 0.48% 44.72% 97.52% 1 in 43,500 N/A 0.17% 1.07%
Michigan St 0.9236 4-3 10.17 N/A 0.04% 17.55% 87.94% 0.50% N/A 0.03% 0.24%
Minnesota 0.9198 4-3 10.04 N/A 0.04% 16.33% 85.07% 0.83% N/A 0.03% 0.21%
Northwestern 0.9011 3-5 8.00 N/A N/A 0.48% 36.22% 14.46% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
Penn St 0.8461 3-4 6.53 N/A N/A 0.04% 8.73% 50.71% 0.91% 0.00% 0.00%
Michigan 0.8476 1-6 5.39 N/A N/A 1 in 182k 1.67% 77.90% 9.24% 0.00% 0.00%
Iowa 0.6896 1-6 3.22 N/A N/A 1 in 269M 0.01% 99.11% 61.18% 0.00% 0.00%
Indiana 0.7234 1-6 2.94 N/A N/A 1 in 3.54B 1 in 41,600 99.67% 70.36% 0.00% 0.00%

 

Here Ohio State's lead is somewhat less formidable, with Purdue, Wisconsin, and Illinois all at a higher rating (in terms of win percentage against an average opponent) than in the basic system. Even so, it's Ohio State's to lose. We're in 5th in both methods, but here it's much closer ahead of Minnesota and a full game behind Illinois. Again, six teams look solidly in, and Northwestern's chances actually look better here (though still not especially good).

Upcoming MSU Games

Pomeroy Basic Margin-Aware
Mich 85%, -10 74.4% 68.5%, -4.5
Ind 85%, -11 87.0% 82.2%, -8.5
@Iowa 67%, -4 89.3% 84.5%, -9.5
@Wisc 18%, +8 43.2% 29.5%, +5
PSU 80%, -8 72.7% 68.7%, -4.5
@OSU 10%, +12 7.5% 15.1%, +10
Ill 58%, -2 51.2% 36.6%, +3
@Minn 46%, +1 46.1% 51.3%, -0.5
Pur 45%, +1 40.4% 27.7%, +5.5
Iowa 88%, -11 89.3% 84.5%, -9.5
@Mich 60%, -2 74.4% 68.5%, -4.5

 

Keep in mind that Pomeroy's projections include home court but the other two do not.

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