Penn State 66, Michigan State 62 - Where Did It All Go Wrong
by Pete Rossman on Jan 8, 2011 3:23 PM CST
in Michigan State Spartans Basketball
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PrintBlame for this loss on the transfer of Chris Allen would be greatly misplaced. Michigan State didn't need another perimeter defender and efficient shooter. Attributing this loss to the departure of Raymar Morgan would be apt, for all the attributes he brought to the court MSU needed in spades today. Rebounding, scoring inside, and interior defense were MSU's downfalls this afternoon, as they limited Talor Battle but no one else on Penn State's team in a 66-62 loss.
Let's break down this tragedy by the four factors (note - I'm taking all my numbers for this game from SCACCHoops, I'm sure Statsheet will have slightly different values later):
- eFG%: Despite what you may have seen, MSU actually won this category, 47.3% to 44.7%. That value for the Spartans is a few ticks below their season average, while the defense held Penn State to around its season average. The biggest problem came in the first ten minutes with the several unopposed drives Penn State had to the basket. It was the Syracuse game all over again.
- TO%: Penn State had the advantage here, but that doesn't mean MSU was negligent. The Nittany Lions posted their second lowest TO% of the season at 10.5%, with MSU registering an 18.0% - not great, but surely not an abysmal performance. The really dumb turnovers still exist however, such as another over-and-back call and a couple of inaccurate lob passes.
- OffReb%: This was the killer. Penn State collected 39.5% of their misses, their third highest total of the season behind performances against Lehigh and Furman. Michigan State was slightly below average at 34.5%, but that's beside the point - it is unacceptable to have another team receive second chances at that rate, and that's what ultimately cost MSU. While more bounces than normal went Penn State's way Je,ff Brooks often went up and over Spartan defenders to get the ball. This has to change.
- FT Rate: This was about even as well, with Penn State's 40.4% slightly greater than MSU's 36.4%. Getting to the line wasn't MSU's problem, as you're probably aware. Everyone who went to the line for MSU missed a foul shot today except - get ready for this - Derrick Nix. 10-20 from the line including key misses down the stretch clinched the loss.
As for players, let's address Draymond first - he shot the ball terribly today, but that was his only major misgiving. He had 10 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 blocks, 2 steals and 2 turnovers. Lucas and Summers were the two main scorers for MSU today (14 and 21 points respectively on decent shooting) and that should highlight part of the problem - this team needs more inside scoring. Nix, Sherman and Roe combined to hit 50% of their shots, but the lack of concerted effort to score points in the paint is a bit disconcerting.
In short, if you haven't calibrated your expectations for this MSU team, you better do so now. This loss wasn't like the fluke losses two years ago where the Spartans lost to hot-shooting Penn State and Northwestern squads, this loss can be blamed on a failure to collect rebounds and poor foul shooting. This team has little more than 72 hours to face an uber-efficient Wisconsin team that will tell if Michigan State has any hope of contending in the Big Ten this year. Let's hope they can pull it together.
One last note - I'm hearing a lot of talk about how this team has no heart, which is a bit misinformed. I'd say today came out flatly with a lack of defensive execution and a bit of an eagerness to settle for jump shots. This team needs to be more prescient on defense and be more assertive on offense, but to say they have no heart creates an excuse that's all too easy to hurl. "PLAY HARDER!" feels good to yell, but the way MSU's playing, won't change anything. They have the desire, now they need to play smarter.
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Nope
made them both. The rest of the team should take notes. Including Adriean Payne with his banked in free throw. ugh.
Smarter vs Harder
I’d say we need a bit of both. Whatever the problem is, this team has rapidly ascended the ranks of my least favorite Izzo teams ever. Revising expectations are never fun, especially in the drastic manner that is required after the first 15 games of the year. I’m not sure where to put the blame for today and this year as a whole, but there is a whole lot of it to go around.
At this point I struggle to realistically see anything better than 21-10 (12-6) and a 7-10 seed. Depressing.
Seems like a recurring theme
I’d say today came out flatly with a lack of defensive execution and a bit of an eagerness to settle for jump shots.
Saying "No heart" and "Not trying" are too easy.
It also ignores the structural problems the team has. Inconsistent post presence, too dependent on jump shots, no dribble penetrator due to Lucas’ injury, and no 3 man are all very real problems. Also, the summer of chaos didn’t help. Think about it. Allen was kicked off the team. Izzo nearly left. Our best player had major surgery. Summers, Roe, Payne, and Lucious all had surgery. Lucious was arrested. It continued into the season ans Lucious was suspended, Nix went AWOL, and Izzo was suspended. If it’s been exhausting to be a fan of this team, think of how exhausting it must be to be on the team. It has to take a toll at some point.
To me the problem seems pretty straight forward....
the players on the team need to learn how to better hold on to a ball once it hits their hand. They do that and a lot of other things fall into place. So many missed opportunities because they knocked the ball out of bounds or into the penn state player’s hands after the ball hit their hands.
the Ncaa tournament...
Is it possible we don’t make it?
Sure we are still in the top 25, but that’s based of potential, we have shown nothing that really says how good we are.
If we just lot to penn state. I see us losing to ohio state, at least once to wisconsin, purdue, illinois.
Is there a chance we dont’ make the tournament?
Only if State keeps sliding
I think a 10-8 conference record gets them in, a 9-9 one and it gets iffy. I think they should be able to get it together enough to get to ten wins.
10 wins is definitely enough and I don't think that will be an issue.
Can’t believe we’re having this conversation.
Illinois
Had 10 wins last year, including over MSU at and the Kohl Center and had a win in the Big Ten tournament but that wasn’t good enough. Hate to say it, but MSU making the tournament is not a done deal.
That Illini team...
Played a Buckeye-esque nonconference schedule. Not the best comparison.
by rook34 on Jan 8, 2011 10:59 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
They had a disaster of a non-conference schedule
Ours bears no resemblance whatsoever to that.
I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
You're right, SpartanDan and Rook34
Illinois not a good comp. The trouble with tough schedules, though, is that they only help if you win some of the tough ones. The value of MSU’s win over Washington is yet to be determined. They lost to Texas A&M, struggled to beat USC in OT and have two games each left with WSU and Arizona and plenty of bad loss traps available in the Pac 10. They’re 23 in one poll and out of the other. The win over Oakland is not worth much: they lost to Wright State, Valpo and Michigan and play in the Summit League. No votes in either poll, 81 in Kenpom. That’s all we’ve got.
My real concern is the way MSU lost to Penn State, who just played their usual game without shooting the lights out or having one player go off. It did not suggest that this was a fluke loss, which makes 10-8 in the conference look a LOT more challenging than it did a week ago.
I think we make the tournament. I still think it’s not a slam dunk.
Voice of reason
This team WILL be in the tournament. SOS, Non-conference wins over Washington and Oakland, plus at the very least 10 wins in the Big Ten. We’re in. As far as winning advancing in the tournament…. That’s a different story.
Well, yeah, if we go 6-12 we're not making it.
But with our non-conference schedule, 9-9 is very likely good enough and 10-8 is an absolute lock. And flawed as this team is, I’d be absolutely stunned if we were worse than 9-9.
I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
9-9 is not as far off as you might think
Illinois x 2, Wisconsin x2, Purdue x 2, OSU x1. Based on the non-conference play and the Big Ten play so far, it is not unreasonable to think that we won’t win any of those games which would put the total losses at 8. Especially when we squeaked out a win over NW by 3 points only to have them follow that up with 25 pt loss to the Illini. Throw in road games at Iowa, Minnesota, and Michigan and who knows.
A 12 win Big Ten season is looking like a great accomplishment right now.
Sweeps
If we’re swept by each of those three, we don’t deserve to make the tournament.
"And how much are intangibles worth? 10%? 20%?" - kj@theonlycolors
Definitely
But does everyone believe we will get swept? Definitely have not been playing great ball, but c’mon. They will win some of those, finish with an underwhelming Big Ten record and advance to the tournament. I’d also believe that this team would play with more of a sense of urgency down the stretch.
I don't
But I think it’ll be interesting to see if we can go .500 and get 4 out of 7.
"And how much are intangibles worth? 10%? 20%?" - kj@theonlycolors
Sure, it's possible.
But if we win our home games, and maybe one more on the road, we’ll be in. Sad that we’re having this conversation but it’s clear we were all blinded by last season.
by rook34 on Jan 8, 2011 4:39 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Making the tourney is not the issue.
This season was “National Championship or Bust” as I recall. I’m putting my money on “bust”.
In an added twist
Starting this season, it’s important to not be one of last four at-large to get it, bc that now means an extra game in the + 4 before the real tourney starts.
None whatsoever.
The tournament committee rewards tough schedules, and it’s hard to imagine tougher than our non-con + 19+ Big Ten games. 9-9 and a first round exit in the Big Ten tourney, I would be surprised if we missed but nervous enough to at least consider it a possibility. 8-10 and I think we have a chance (though we’d probably need at least one win in the conference tourney, losing to a 9-10-11 seed in the first round might be a killer). 10-8 and we’re not only in, we’re almost certainly a single-digit seed.
I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
IMO
Rebounding and interior defense are the issues with this team. The TO% is bad, but it’s not significantly worse than previous years (I admit a gut feeling on that, I didn’t look it up). In the past they could overcome the TO problem with tough post defense and terrific rebounding. If they don’t do those things, they become an ordinary team.
Izzo runs a small team out there with 3 guards a lot, and Summers really isn’t a consistent defender or rebounder. He was overmatched today against Brooks. They miss Morgan a TON.
Payne better get up that learning curve quick if they are going to make another run to Final Four.
I want the former Draymond to return
I really appreciate the guy, but if he is going to play the game as a jump shooter, it is going to be a long season. The occasional outside shot – fine, but he needs to be providing points in the paint and he needs to be near the rim as he is our best rebounder. I think it is up to Izzo to impart that wisdom on him. I imagine Draymond is trying to carry this team, and the result has been that he has gotten away from what he does best.
Remember when he used to score most of his points...
on put-backs and tip-ins? I miss that because it meant he was doing work cleaning up the boards if someone else missed instead of just missing himself with nobody else to clean-up his misses.
Frustrated, Not Hustling Back on D
It’s becoming somewhat of a trend for him to get frustrated at refs on the offensive end and then not getting back on D as fast as he normally does.
Izzo has Draymond’s back in regards to shooting outside. He talked about it in the pressor. Penn State’s coach was also quoted as saying that he was perfectly happy having Draymond on the outside and would let him shoot until he made a few. He said that he was much more dangerous in the paint than outside.
Defense
Agree on much of what has been said, especially about our struggles on the interior: relying on a 6’6" power forward and 6’8" “center” with reconstructed knees (or Sherman, who still gets pushed around; or Nix who struggles with stamina issues; or Payne who is still raw and misses defensive assignments) seemed an unsettling proposition from day one. Morgan was a terrific post-defender and much stronger than he seemed. But what seems missing to me, and what has marked Izzo teams in the past, was that ability to simply hold the opposition scoreless (or nearly so) for 4-6 minute stretches when necessary. In years past, we would have shut PSU down with about eight minutes left and pulled this out, no matter how ugly the offensive woes. It always seemed merely a matter of timely execution and defensive identity. My hope is that Izzo has communicated to Appling that his role, for now, is perimeter defense…that he will set the tone defensively, and anything we get offensively from him is gravy (it will be his team soon enough). He seems to be communicating this to Roe as well, based on what we heard in the news last week, and my hope is that he is that he is trying to change this unit into one with some kind of defensive identity. I’d be happy to win a bunch of 59-55 slugfests in the Big Ten again.
by RobbingGormanThomas on Jan 8, 2011 5:14 PM CST reply actions
that would be nice
But you won’t grind out a lot of games in the Big Ten, if you can’t make foul shots and suffer regular metal lapses on offense and defense. I’m not sure what it is, but this team seems to really lack mental fortitude.
Bob Strauss said of Jimmy Carter that he had used up all his luck getting to the White House. I’m starting to think this team used up all of its luck in last year’s March tourney.
Disagree on Appling.
He needs to be more than just a perimeter defender. The kid has a ton to offer on the offensive end, but is really deferring…too much. To become dangerous by tourney time, MSU needs both Appling AND Payne to be important, productive members of the rotation. Otherwise, forget it. There just isn’t enough talent/firepower in the group as it stands.
KSU & MSU=Misery Support Partners
Only 2 preseason top 5 teams currently nowhere near the top 5
Both took it on the chin from unranked conference foes today; I think the games may have ended at the same time
One or both will no longer even be top 25 come Monday
Both lost to Duke
Both widely picked to win their conference
Both led by undersized PG’s hoping to play in the NBA next year; although Pullen is free from major injury as far as I know so he probably has a… leg up
There may be statistical similarities too but I’m too frustrated to look.
I’ll leave that stuff to the stat heads here at TOC.
"We’ve just got to try to bring our all 40 minutes of every game"
Defense, Defense, Defense (and rebounding)
This game was a perfect wake up call for me. The wife asked me why we lost and I wasn’t able to come up with a reason. We didn’t play terrible, PSU didn’t play out of their mind, Battle didn’t go apeshit, we’re just not good enough right now to win games in which WE don’t get breaks or things don’t fall right for us.
In earlier losses this season I’ve seen it said (I think even by this blog) that it’s due to offensive efficiency issues. We might have them but we’ve always had the and we could overcome them if we were the same lock down defensive and rebounding teams we’ve had in the past. We’re not. Maybe we can get there, but probably not this year. That’s disappointing but probably not surprising in hindsight when you realize we really have no true center or wing player who can defend and rebound like Morgan could (as has been pointed out by other comments).
IMO, Izzo should go all in on defense and hope for the best. If a player doesn’t box out, sit him. If a player doesn’t get back on D, sit him. If a player gets shoved under the basket every time down the court (I’m looking at you Sherman), sit him. Same w/ TO’s. Lucious tosses an ill advised lob that ends up in the band, put in the walk on. If we can keep games ugly and low-scoring, we have enough offensive players to win at the end (I know it didn’t happen today but that’s b/c we couldn’t stop them or get boards).
The team needs to play like they’re underdogs and scrappers, like we have in the past. After this game, maybe they’re realize that’s what they are.
Wait Until March
That seems to be the mantra and it appears the Team has bought in. We are going nowhere fast at this point and we better take care of today and let “March” take care of itself. This Team has NO inside presence at all. Delvon still has no offensive game and he is a junior. Day Day has fallen in love with the jump shot instead of gutting in out down low. Kalin & Durrell are not anywhere near what they were last year and do not get me started on Korie. Did I mention the FT shooting? I do not know what is going on but it does not appear to be Spartan Basketball.
Need to stop checking SI Power Rankings
Last time I checked, MSU had climbed in to the bottom of the rankings and promptly lost.
Checked again yesterday and MSU was in…
Some Thoughts:
I think players can get too much blame sometimes(I know I do a lot of blaming) just as coaches often get too much credit. I think Ed D deserves some credit here. He knows his rotation, he had a favorable mismatch and exploited it successfully, he largely used Battle as a decoy, he got his team to outrebound what used to be one of the top rebounding teams in the B10.
I think Coach Izzo is struggling with this team. This team clearly can’t handle prosperity or compliments yet every comment of his this week that I heard or read were overwhelmingly positive. He actually said he had nothing but good things to say. Positivity clearly didn’t work. This after the failed cartoon and scouting report sessions before the Texas game or playing the fatigue card before the Cuse game. I hope he finds the right button.
Roe and Lucious are barometers for this team. When they struggle it doesn’t bode well.
Roe got into foul trouble and the rebounding went south. Lucious just didn’t do much.
Appling – He’s not Charlie Bell. IMO he doesn’t need to be but is that why he wasn’t in to guard Battle in the endgame? I get that he was shaky on offense but if he’s such a good defender why wasn’t he in?
Foul shooting – Exactly. I don’t think it’s a slump anymore for Green.
Never thought I’d see a game where Nix is the best FT shooter. But good job Nix.
Now The Journey is going to be ruined this week and next. First episode features MSU back when times were good and I bet the next episode is going to contain scenes from this game.
"We’ve just got to try to bring our all 40 minutes of every game"
Well this is even more depressing...
http://noise.typepad.com/hey_joe/2011/01/almost-unexplainable.html
Sounds like they’ve moved past the angry-about-losing stage and are just resigned to being depressed. Sounds like a team primed to absolutely fall apart. Hope they don’t and they defy all logic and magically turn into a great team… I just don’t see it happening though.. pieces just aren’t there.
On the bright side
The MSU women are 15-1 after knocking off U-M in Ann Arbor today and are ranked 11th nationally I believe. Their only loss is to #1 ranked Baylor. How bout some TOC love for our girls in green.
It might be a long season
Let’s face it. This Spartan BB team is just not that good. That’s reality.
Lapses in concentration, focus, mental toughness, and spotty desire all lead to what we have all witnessed thus far. Add soft leadership and this team has a real soft underbelly. We are in for a .500 B10 season. Good thing the March field expanded from 64 to 68 teams. Looks like a squeaker.
rexrode article
sure make it seems like the team needs to have a fire. Get some swagger. Or even play harder. I’ll take first hand interviews and player reactions over stats anyday.
also interesting in article was izzo saying he doesn’t think it matters that green takes longer jump shots, while psu’s coach said that’s what they were trying to do, keep him away from glass where he’s more dangerous.
but ugh! If only we could hit free throws this would all not matter, until the next game at least.
Late to the party...
…but anyone notice how close this year’s team and last year’s team are in all the four factors except for rebounding on both sides of the ball and FTA/FGA on defense?
Raymar meant that much? Combination of losing him and Allen leading to much smaller lineups?
I vote for more minutes for Nix.
It all starts with rebounding
We are just not where we have been in years past – not even close. I don’t know whether it’s the smaller lineup or what, but we just aren’t getting it done. I don’t mind Green taking a couple outside shots – he’s shot very well overall from the three point line this year and if he want to hoist up one or two from out there that’s fine (he took only 2 3s yesterday so he wasn’t just jacking it up from out there all game long). He’s right where he was last year in the rebounding dept. so our dropoff can’t be attributed to him. If you need a 6’6" guy to be your primary post scorer on offense you’re a team that is going to have trouble scoring down low against larger opponents. I don’t care how talented he is, Green is going to have some trouble getting his shot off against a guy like Dallas Lauderdale. Penn State had Brooks, Jones, and Jackson, all of whom out-height Green, to roll out against him. It’s no wonder he had trouble shooting yesterday.
Roe gave us one rebound in 20 minutes yesterday. I know he had some foul trouble but if he’s going to be the defense and rebounding first guy he has to do better than that. He also has to be able to inhibit the offensive production of a guy like Jones or Brooks, but both went off yesterday. I feel for the guy but by all accounts he’s as healthy as he’s ever been this year but is not producing at even last year’s levels. He has to at least get back to last year’s effectiveness.
Overall, defense is not the problem – Kenpom has us ranked number 15 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Our offense is 52nd. We are allowing too many teams too many second chance opportunities compared to years past, but overall our D has been up to the challenge. We’re struggling on the other end – turnovers, failure to rebound, missed free throws, it’s multiple things but we need to correct at least one to have a decent season.
Agree with TCH
In our glory days we had some power forwards – Annagonye, Hutson, Ballinger, Grainger, Zack.
Our last four year PF/C was Paul Davis. Ginger and G were allowed to develop and were very good as seniors. Raymar was mostly up and some down. Sherman and Nix may get there and Delvon is not a scorer. This year may be the dreaded “rebuilding”.
Rebuilding
Sure, it’s not on par with the past couple MSU teams. If this is rebuilding year, I’ll take it. Compare it to the down years for UCLA, UNC, Kentucky, Indiana, the 2010-2011 Spartans are much more palatable. If it weren’t for the big preseason expectations, I’d imagine everyone would view this season in a completely different light.
You can look at it that way if you want to
but this group returned a ton from a B10 championship and Final Four season – not exactly the definition of a rebuilding season. They’ve crapped the bed so far, plain and simple. I don’t believe there is any NBA talent in the playing group, but they still should play better than they have thus far.
My point was ...
We have no one that can score 15 – 20, consistently, at the 4/5. Herzog was a bust and Sherman/Nix are developing (rebuilding), whereas, Ginger and G were able to
contribute after not playing much in their freshman/sophomore years. I dread facing Leuer and Nankivil, tomorrow.
My point is...
The fanbase (myself included) is spoiled with great team after great team. It’s safe to say that the past couple of seasons the Spartans overachieved. Instead of being content or even mildly disappointed with the mediocre season thus far, a majority of fans are ridiculously negative towards the players and have completely given up on them. Things could be much worse. Trying to give some perspective is all.
I agree to some extent
I think the expectations were a little unrealistic, especially given the big health question marks for two of our better players, and had we been 15th pre-season instead of 2nd maybe we’re all not so disappointed. I also have a hard time saying the sky is falling, or being hugely disappointed, if this season comes up somewhat short. In the context of other hard falls by top programs, this year hasn’t been all that disappointing. Plus, after two straight final four runs and conference titles it feels greedy to expect more.
I WILL be disappointed if we finish any worse than a few games behind the Big Ten champs, and/or miss the NCAA tournament. We should be capable of competing for the Big Ten title, or at least finish even with Purdue sans Hummell. This team also has enough talent and experience that earning a decent seed in the NCAA tournament is a reasonable expectation.
I wouldn’t exactly call this a rebuilding year – next year will fit that bill a little better. We’ll have Lucious back, but other than that our entire backcourt will be freshmen, redshirt or otherwise, and sophmores. Yes, we’ll have some experience in the front court, but other than Green we don’t have anyone that has proven to be a consistently reliable presence. So we’ll have experience question marks, any of whom could turn into what we need by next year, or they could stay the same in which case we’ll be complaining about the rebounding, missed free throws, and lack of post scoring again.
by TheCrestedHelm on Jan 10, 2011 1:02 PM CST up reply actions
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