Michigan at Michigan State -- A Preview
by Pete Rossman on Oct 14, 2011 5:30 AM CDT
in Michigan State Spartans Football
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YOUR MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. THE MICHIGAN WOLVERINES
SPARTAN STADIUM, EAST LANSING, MI
TV: ESPN RADIO: SPARTAN SPORTS NETWORK: (AFFILIATES)
EAST LANSING VISITORS GUIDE: HERE!
TICKETS: HERE!
MICHIGAN ON OFFENSE
Denard Denard Denard Denard Denard Denard Denard *deep breath* Denard Denard Denard Denard Denard. He's accounted for 67.4% of Michigan's yards on the season. I'd say he's the catalyst to their offense, but using the word "catalyst" implies that he takes all the parts and makes them work in harmony. That isn't true, because for all intents and purposes he is the offense, and he does a darn good job at that. His average of 7.06 yards per carry is very good (29th in the nation), and he's been making secondaries pay with his arm for selling out against the run with 9.7 yards per passing attempt (tied for 5th in the nation). His weakness? The interceptions, obviously. Robinson throws an interception on 7.69% of his attempts. This is highest in the FBS, and now that Stephen Garcia is wandering the wilderness of Sakerlina, only one FBS quarterback currently has an interception percentage above 5.1%. It's clear what MSU needs to do -- maximize the risk, and minimize the rewards Denard can bring.
Given that Denard has more rushing yards than UM's top three running backs combined, one would think that Michigan's running backs might not be effective; that thought would be erroneous. Fitzgerald Toussaint and Vincent Smith are listed as co-starters, and both are fairly small (5-6, 172 for Smith, 5-10, 195 for Toussaint). Their small statures have not diminished their effectiveness however, as Toussaint has ran for 5.4 yards per carry, and Shaw has averaged 7.4 yards per carry. Even though they're listed as co-starters, Toussaint has twice as many carries as Smith and third back Michael Shaw, so I'd assume he gets the majority of non-Denard carries again.
Brady Hoke's tenure at Michigan has allowed the Wolverines to rediscover the position in football called the "tight end". Tight end Kevin Koger has the third most receptions (10) on the team. The two ahead of him are wide receivers, and have slightly different roles. Jeremy Gallon leads the team in receptions, and can often be seen stretching bubble screens from three to more than three yards. Junior Hemingway is the big play threat. His average of 26.7 yards per catch is third among all FBS receivers, but that value could be magnified by a small sample size (15 receptions on the year). Regardless, this a very good group of receivers that can cover up some of Denard's mistakes if need be.
The offensive line is very good, often getting out to the second level to spring Denard, the running backs, or Denard for big gains. This is to be expected when your youngest player on the line is in his third year in the program.
MICHIGAN ON DEFENSE AND SPECIAL TEAMS
The stat that's been prevalent throughout news outlets on Michigan's defense -- The 12.5 points allowed per game, tied for fourth in the FBS along with LSU. While that's impressive, the Wolverines are allowing 336.5 yards per game, which ranks them 30th in the FBS.
Phil Steele has a metric called "yards per point", or YPP. It's exactly what you think it is -- the number of yards a team needs on average to score a point. For example, If a team attained 200 yards and scored 20 points, its YPP would be 200/20 = 10. The average YPP in the FBS last year was 13.7. Michigan is holding opponents to 26.1 yards per point, which is unsustainable. Somewhere along the line teams are going to start turning those yards into points.
That said however, the Wolverine defense is significantly better than last year's. The defensive line is still the most skilled unit, and Mike Martin and Ryan Van Bergen will once again cause problems for the offensive line. Michigan must be blitzing a fair amount, because strong safety Jordan Kovacs (reference for basketball fans -- Kovacs:football::Zack Novak:basketball) is tied for second on the team on tackles with four along with back-up strong side linebacker Jake Ryan; defensive end Craig Roh leads the team with 4.5. While the UM defense does have weaknesses to be exploited, I doubt we'll see Michigan State rip off several big plays like they did last year.
The kickoff returns are nothing special as the main returner, Vincent Smith, only averages a little over 18 yards per return. Jeremy Gallon is a good punt returner however, as he's averaged a little over 10 yards per return in the six chances he's had this season. Hopefully Mike Sadler can get good hangtime and prevent returns, since I'm a bit concerned. Will Hagerup has only had three punts since coming off a four game suspension, and has averaged 37.7 yards on those three. Once again, small sample size rears its head, he should be better than that come tomorrow.
Brandon Gibbons is the field goal kicker, and he's made field goals of 21, 25, 32, and 38 yards this season. He's also missed field goals from 37 and 40 yards. In Ann Arbor, this counts as progress.
FINAL THOUGHTS AND PREDICTION
To me, the key to this game is to what extent MSU can capitalize on Michigan's mistakes. Denard Robinson is dynamic. The problem is that dynamic goes both ways, as Denard turns the ball over almost as often as he rattles off highlight reel plays.
In my mind, I keep recalling the 2008 game, where the game was close until the fourth quarter, when MSU finally wore Michigan's defensive line down and Javon Ringer was able to close the game out with several runs of 5 or more yards. That probably won't happen here, but I do think the game will play out somewhat similarly -- it's close for three quarters, and MSU capitalizes on a UM turnover and pulls away.
FINAL SCORE: MICHIGAN STATE 30, MICHIGAN 24
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Sorry, pet peeve
for all intents and purposes*
I feel as though Denard’s dynamic positive offensive plays will start to curb themselves again, now that we’re back in real B1G play (sorry Minnesota, but I’m not counting you). He’s one of those athletes whose mistakes are masked by the other team not fully comprehending how to tackle him – but when they actually have an idea of how to, he loses his confidence, his edge, and the game.
"That isn’t true, because for all intensive purposes he is the offense, and he does a darn good job at that. "
It’s, “for all intents and purposes”, you momo.
Key matchups. Michigan’s D-line vs. MSU’s O-line. Michigan’s O-line vs. MSU D-line. The winner of the line of scrimmage wins the game, for all intents and purposes.
You can say that about any game.
Whoever wins up front usually wins any game. To me the key to the game is Cousins if he plays well we win hands down, and that obviously goes along with the O Line playing well. Cousins can’t turn the ball over especially in the red zone we need to score TD’s. Our defense will turn them over I like our DB’s against their WR’s if DeTard throws up that jump ball crap were going to come down with it more often than not.
the team that scores more points...
will will. bottom line, if msu’s o-line performs well, msu wins.
A few minor quibbles
Michigan’s starting running back is named “Fitzgerald Toussaint”, not “Toussaint Fitzgerald” (although that would make his name even more awesome). Rich Rodriguez actually did utilize Koger and now-departed Martell Webb (who scored a TD in the MSU game) pretty well as tight ends and H-Backs while he was here; it’s just that Hoke is bringing more into the game more often. Jake Ryan has been the starter all year because Cam Gordon has been dealing with an injury, so he’s effectively the starter. He’s played incredibly well for being a redshirt freshman with a MAC-level offer list.
Back to analyzing the game — I don’t think Michigan State will be able to wear down Michigan’s front seven at all on Saturday; Michigan cycles in defensive linemen frequently to keep them fresh and fatigue hasn’t been an issue this year. You have the stable of really good running backs to do it, but Michigan should be able to push your offensive line around. If we can run the ball with some consistency and if our o-line can neutralize your great front seven, we should win easily, but that’s probably not going to happen.
Do you think you're slightly overrating your front 7?
Yes you rotate guys, but Martin and Van Bergen (and maybe Roh) are the only play makers along the defensive line. You’re 80th in the country in yards per carry given up and rank 51st in sacks with most of those coming off blitz packages. Your front 7 is definitely improved but I wouldn’t qualify it as anything more than average.
Now obviously MSU’s offensive line hasn’t been impressive this year so we’ll have to see how that match-up plays out. I just don’t see it as a huge match-up advantage as you seem to.
No
Martin and Van Bergen are the two best players in the front four, but Craig Roh (who looked like he would be supplanted by Jibreel Black, a pretty solid pass rusher who can’t hold up against the run) has overcome an illness and is playing really well after a slow start. Other than that, we have Will Campbell — a huge former five-star that is having a Kevin Grady-esque career, minus the alcohol problems — backing up Martin and two walk-ons splitting time at the other DE spot across from Roh. None of those guys should scare you. At linebacker, we’re pretty well set: Kenny Demens has locked down the middle linebacker spot and is an above-average Big Ten player, Jake Ryan and Cam Gordon make the SLB spot a plus, and Brandin Hawthorne emerged from the mess that was our WLB situation and is functional. It’s not a great front seven, but they should be able to handle MSU’s patchwork offensive line. Yes, I know that everybody says that they’re starting to gel, but they’ve only played two games since Burkland went out — beating up on CMU and notching only ten points against an OSU defense with their best defensive lineman out isn’t really saying a whole lot.
I was specifically referring to this:
In my mind, I keep recalling the 2008 game, where the game was close until the fourth quarter, when MSU finally wore Michigan’s defensive line down and Javon Ringer was able to close the game out with several runs of 5 or more yards. That probably won’t happen here, but I do think the game will play out somewhat similarly — it’s close for three quarters, and MSU capitalizes on a UM turnover and pulls away.
and I’m thinking that MSU will need to jump out early and put up some quick points to put us in a hole. We’ve been the ones pulling away in the fourth quarter this year.
I guess I don't see it as a guaranteed match-up advantage as you do
Not saying your front 7 couldn’t make life tough, but I think it’ll be closer to an even match-up. Our rushing offense has been bad with us being 94th in yards per carry, but the offensive line has done pretty well in pass protection with us giving up only 5 sacks this year which ranks 18th. Compare those two rankings to your 80th ranked rushing defense and 51st ranked pass rush and it’s pretty close.
The big difference is depth
Michigan’s front 7 is already deeper than any point during Rodriguez’s tenure. Yes, RR had warm bodies to sub in, but now there are actual guys who can play football there. I think there’s a difference between MSU wearing down the front 7 throughout the game (which I don’t think will happen because of aforementioned depth) and calling Michigan’s front 7 an “advantage” (which I don’t think is necessarily true).
TL/DR version: I agree with you that it will be a close matchup. Cliche alert!: whoever wins the battle in the trenches wins this game.
by Rob Rogacki on Oct 14, 2011 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions
Ummmmm......it's still the same guys as last year
Hoke may have brought in a “monster” recruiting class, but are any of those true freshmen playing? If not, those are all RichRod guys providing your depth.
"Everyone who drinks is not a poet. Maybe some of us drink because we're not poets." - Arthur Bach
Two things
Another year’s worth of experience and a defensive coordinator that relies on actual coaching acumen instead of furry voodoo dolls to do his job.
by Rob Rogacki on Oct 14, 2011 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
UM's defensive line is at least...
…decent, and probably good. Our offensive line is at most mediocre and probably bad. This is a decided advantage for them. There will be multiple instances Saturday when Martin will single-handedly blow up plays. MSU’s O-line is just going to have to fight through that on hold up sufficiently for things to end well overall. It’s ok to admit that UM has certain advantages in this game. It is a good thing when your team beats another good team.
Amen
Our run blocking was much better against OSU even though out YPC was low because in the fourth quarter we were working on clock and they had 8 in the box to stop us from running.
I don’t think there is even a question that OSU’s front 7 is more talented than Michigan’s, but we got to prove it tomorrow.
I will say,
I think it’s really nice of the athletic department to hold a football game for fans in town for Midnight Madness.
"And how much are intangibles worth? 10%? 20%?" - kj@theonlycolors
Should be a great game
If we’re able to average at least 4 YPC I like our chances. We haven’t ran the ball well this year, but Michigan hasn’t been that good at defending it either.
Michigan’s offense is absolutely dangerous. Their yards per play is very impressive. Their offense vs. our defense should be a great match-up. I think we’ll be able to slow them down a bit though. The one legit defense they played (ND) held them to 130 yards through 3 quarters.
I’m glad you brought up the yards per point stat. Another stat that gives me hope is their ‘luck’ with fumble recoveries. In games Michigan has played their have been 22 fumbles and they’ve recovered 17 of them! Fumble recoveries are completely random so hopefully regression starts to set in this game.
I can’t wait for Saturday.
Fumbles
Also interesting is the fact that of the 17 turnovers they’ve forced, 12 of them have been fumbles, which, like you mention, are an unpredictable, luck-based event. Are they really the result of better defensive play, where their players now have unusually great ball-stripping ability? Or have they just gotten an unlikely high share of good bounces through 6 games? My guess is that it’s closer to the latter.
"It was worth it. Every needle, every dose of medicine that I've taken. That's why you play the game. A chance to be on a Final Four team, a chance to win championships." Delvon Roe
by Ducking Delvon on Oct 14, 2011 8:40 AM CDT up reply actions
They definitely deserve credit for forcing 15 fumbles
but it’s the fumble recoveries that are random. I know that at least 3 of those 15 forced fumbles have been the other team just dropping the ball with no contact from Michigan, but that still leaves them with 12 forced fumbles which is impressive.
This game worries me because Michigan is a good team who’s improved, but they also seem to have the karma gods on their side right now.
Karma gods indeed,
what with Denard picking up Toussaint’s fumble (I agree with the typo: Toussaint Fitzgerald would be even more awesome) and Rees letting the ball slip like so much jello from his hand…yeah, we get some props for forcing fumbles, but we also must do a lips-to-chest-to-sky whathaveyou in thanks for The Random.
This is going to be an awesome game, but the real question in my mind: The State News vs The Michigan Daily, flag football death match of the nerds. Where are the previews for that match?
by KleinoTheGoBlueRhino on Oct 14, 2011 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions
ruh roh
thanks for the correction!
by KleinoTheGoBlueRhino on Oct 14, 2011 11:07 AM CDT up reply actions
I have been a ball of nerves all week waiting for this game.
I can’t imagine how the players must feel.
The lines will determine the outcome of this game. I believe the Spartans have the edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball – they just have to play to their potential.
Also important is the MSU secondary. You know Robinson will be throwing some balls up for grabs. If our guys can come up with a couple of those (or at least knock them down), we’ll be in good shape.
"Everyone who drinks is not a poet. Maybe some of us drink because we're not poets." - Arthur Bach
I think this game will determine, once and for all,
just how intentional/good Denard’s underthrown jump balls have been. I’ll take ‘em, as a UM fan, but I hold my breath every time he heaves it up. It’s kinda terrifying. Maybe he’ll throw one or two up on second and short as a kinda-sorta attempt to stretch the D, but I figure it’ll be all hitches and sweeps and maybe even a little triple option trickery.
by KleinoTheGoBlueRhino on Oct 14, 2011 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions
I think this game will determine, once and for all, just how intentional/good Denard’s underthrown jump balls have been. I’ll take ‘em, as a UM fan, but I hold my breath every time he heaves it up. It’s kinda terrifying
To comapre this to something that our MSU brethren can relate to, it’s the equivalent of Jonathan Ericsson on the penalty kill or a Brad Penny start.
by Rob Rogacki on Oct 14, 2011 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions
Wind
Right now, the forecast for gametime is showing winds of 28 mph. That should make field position/direction and kicking extremely important, which I have to think favors MSU, with Conroy and Sadler.
"It was worth it. Every needle, every dose of medicine that I've taken. That's why you play the game. A chance to be on a Final Four team, a chance to win championships." Delvon Roe
christ
even with all of UM’s improvements, it’s kicking teams are still the stuff Blood Tears
by KleinoTheGoBlueRhino on Oct 14, 2011 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions
Even if the wind was nonexistent, I still think MSU has the edge
If Gibbons kicks the ball and it doesn’t spin sideways, that’s a minor victory for UM fans.
by Rob Rogacki on Oct 14, 2011 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions
Me no likey
Yes, U of M has a bad kicking game, but we’re the team that will be relying more on the pass. 28 to 40+ mph is easily enough to make passing more difficult. Maybe we benefit because our QB has a stronger arm whereas theirs, when he does heave it up, is likely to be more affected by the wind – i.e. maybe we get some interceptions because those underthrows are more underthrown and off target than normal.
They’ll be in the first truly hostile environment they’ve faced all year (no, Evanston Illinois does not count as hostile for the visiting team). I think we will move the ball and, if we can avoid turnovers, turn those drives into points. On D I am concerned that we’ll be able to slow down Denard. If we can limit their running game I don’t see them beating us passing, but that’s a big if.
by TheCrestedHelm on Oct 14, 2011 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions
Maybe it's a reverse of the 2004 game!
I was at Mich Stadium and the wind was crazy. UM was the stodgy old-school manball and MSU was new-fangled hybrid spread. Now the situation is about reversed. 4th quarter Michigan had the wind, MSU was down to Dowdell, and Carr let it open up. MSU stalled while Michigan finally went into Braylon Mode. Perhaps that reverses too with Cunningham X-Play in the 4th.
Was this a mistake?
The offensive line is very good, often getting out to the second level to spring Denard, the running backs, or Denard for big gains
Or just clever?
Still not sold...
I’m not sold on MSU defense actually beating a real team.
I’m not sold on UM’s defense being more scheme than talent.
I am sold on Mattison probably being the best coach involved in this game which gives Michigan an advantage whether Denard plays well or not. He has made mistakes but none of them have been critical and when the game is on the line…ice in his veins. Borges appears to be very intelligent with his playcalling and out-scheming the defenses.
I am really looking forward to watching Worthy vs Molk and Lewan vs Gholston…those might be the most entertaining matchups in this game
I guess a bit OT
But I come here and read our preview and it is well done and humorous at times without taking digs at Michigan. Now step over the MGoBlog’s preview and while it has good insight it begins with unnecessary shots at MSU. I just don’t understand why they can’t help themselves, is it really needed to talk about the Situation (no one is happy he was here) or over analyze a tattoo?? I’m glad that Pete and the rest of the staff always keep it classy on their end. Makes me proud to be a member of TOC
GO STATE! BEAT MICHIGAN!
by JadeMonkey23 on Oct 14, 2011 3:37 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Just the usual over there
Of course there are “juggalo” references in there, which I still don’t understand.
"It's a trap!"
by AdmiralAkbar on Oct 14, 2011 6:13 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree
The “Juggalo” thing from that article that was I think last season, guess what?
Nowhere in the description of those guys is there a mention of MSU gear, nor is there any Spartan gear on them in the pic (though IDK if that pic in the article is actually the ones the author supposedly encountered).
IMO, assuming this encounter actually happened, it was a couple of anti-Wal Mart Wolverines, as opposed to Spartan alums or fans. Probably just a couple of PWT DBs who are sick of the PWT U-M DBs that they live in the trailer park in Ypsi with.
HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE
After I complain...
…about the estimable Brian Cook being a dick, I’m going to yell at my cat for shedding.
by witless chum on Oct 14, 2011 7:55 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Visions of 2004 going through my head, unfortunately.
The expected high wind is definitely not good news for us. It might make Denard’s jump ball throws more comically inaccurate than usual, but it’ll be more disruptive to Cousins (who can actually put the ball where he wants it more often than not under normal circumstances). It will make field goals much more difficult, but Michigan couldn’t really do those anyway except from chip-shot range. It will make returning punts a bit trickier, and I’m already holding my breath every time Martin is back there attempting to field one. Basically all of the areas it affects were advantages for us without the wind and probably aren’t anymore.
Remember, in 2004, despite Lloyd Carr eventually remembering “hey wait, I have Braylon Edwards and they’re trying to cover him with Mini-Me, maybe we should throw to him more” and despite having to rely on Dowdell instead of Stanton for a half, if the wind dies down just a little bit we win on the last play of regulation (when a 52-yard FG into the wind, on an untimed down thanks to an admittedly dubious PI call, fell just a couple yards short). I have a nasty feeling that the wind is going to screw with us again tomorrow.
I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
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