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Three Easy Pieces to Stopping the Wisconsin Badgers' Offense

MADISON, WI - OCTOBER 15: Russell Wilson #16 of the Wisconsin Badgers runs with the ball against the Indiana Hoosiers at Camp Randall Stadium on October 15, 2011 in Madison, Wisconsin. The Badgers won 59-7. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

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SPOILER ALERT -- Wisconsin's offense so far has been really, really good.  The Badger rushing attack, composed mainly of running backs Montee Ball and James White, have both averaged at or above 6.0 yards a carry. The team as a whole has averaged 5.87 yards per carry so far, good for 8th in the nation. 

And I haven't even gotten to Russell Wilson yet.  I doubted whether he could make the transition from the do-everything role he had to play at NC State to the master distributor role he's now playing at Wisconsin, but he's convinced me and then some.  Wilson's currently leading the nation in pass efficiency (210.94), is fourth in completion percentage (74.2%), and has a yards per attempt that is divine (12.2, 1st in the nation and 1.5 yards above 2nd place).  As if that's not enough, he's also averaging 7.6 yards a carry as well, first among players on Wisconsin that have more than two runs a game. 

After the jump, three ways that the Spartans can game plan for Wisconsin's explosive offense.

Star-divide

  • Don't sell out against the run.  While it may seem tempting given the Badgers' current and historical success on the ground, that's what they want you do.  There's a reason why Wisconsin is tied for fifth among BCS teams for passing plays of 30 yards per greater, and it's called one on one coverage thanks to opposing defenses putting eight men in the box.  While Wisconsin is eighth in the nation in yards per attempt another Michigan State opponent, Notre Dame, is seventh with 5.97 yards per attempt.  Michigan State held them 2.41 yards below the Irish's season average at 3.56 yards per carry.  MSU's proven they can stymie a high-caliber rushing attack, they shouldn't compromise their pass coverage to do so.
  • Treat Russell Wilson as one would any drop-back passer.  While Wilson has averaged 7.8 yards per carry, he's only ran 24 times this year, with 4 or 5 of those (help!  I know Joe Brennan has taken a few of the 8 sacks allowed by Wisconsin this year, but I don't know exactly.  Please and thank you.) being sacks.  While his running ability should definitely be respected, it shouldn't be emphasized to the point where a spy is used to keep that ability in check.  I'm much more concerned about the big passes from Wilson than I am the big runs.
  • DON'T GIVE UP THE BIG PASS YOU HEAR ME DON'T GIVE UP THE BIG PASS  As you've read earlier, Wisconsin is one of the best teams in the NCAA in completing passes of more than 30 yards (15, tied for fifth), more than 40 yards (9, tied for sixth), and more than 50 yards (4, tied for tenth).  The good here is that Michigan State is the best team in the FBS at preventing pass play of more than 10 yards and 20 yards.  While part of this can be attributed to playing subpar opponents and quarterbacks of dubious passing ability, they did a decent job of keeping Tommy Rees in check.  However, I don't think I'm making that big of an assumption by stating that Russell Wilson >>> Rees, and the secondary will have to play focused on every snap.

Three easy steps right?  Also, don't have a turnover margin of -3 like last game.  That almost put a damper on things.

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Not to take anything away from Wisconsin, but...

[caveat: I haven’t actually watched any of the Wisconsin games, just looked at box scores and statistics.]

Wisconsin’s offense has indeed been very good so far. They have put up a ton of yards and points.

BUT…

They put those numbers up against some mediocre-to-terrible defenses.

Wisconsin’s FBS opponents, and their current run defense / ranking (in YPA allowed)

1-5 UNLV 4.41 YPA (#74)
1-5 Oregon State 4.15 YPA (#63)
4-3 NIU 4.22 YPA (#66)
5-1 Nebraska 4.5 YPA (#82)
1-6 Indiana 4.99 YPA (#104)

All in the bottom half. But the run opens the pass, right? Allowing Wisconsin to pick defenses apart with Russell Wilson’s arm? Balanced attack and all that? Well…

UNLV 9.2 YPA (#119)
Oregon State 8.2 YPA (#110)
NIU 7.9 YPA (#103)
Nebraska 6.6 YPA (#36)
Indiana 7.7 YPA (#95)

The outlier there is Nebraska, obviously: Wisco put up 12.8 YPA against a second quartile Nebraska pass defense. But otherwise, Wilson has had success against a bunch of really bad pass defenses.

Bottom line is that Wisconsin has not played against a defense as good as MSU’s so far this year. Heck, I’d venture to guess that Wisco hasn’t played a team as good as MSU this year. I don’t think Nebraska is as good as previously advertised. And NIU, Wisconsin’s only other opponent on the shiny side of .500, got its four wins against: an FBS cupcake, 2-4 Army, 1-6 Kent State, and 4-3 Western Michigan.

Add in the fact that Wisconsin hasn’t won at Spartan Stadium since 2002, and I’m liking MSU’s chances more and more.

While I have a chance, I’ll throw out my prediction: MSU 20, Wisconsin 17.

[all data from cfbstats.com]

by CPT Hoolie on Oct 20, 2011 1:53 AM CDT reply actions  

All good points.

But hey, I had to leave something for the game preview tomorrow. DANG YOU FOR SPOILING MY SURPRISES. Or not.

by Pete Rossman on Oct 20, 2011 5:21 AM CDT up reply actions  

Colin Cowherd loves MSU...

That’s all that should matter. Period. The guy is 70% against the spread and probably way better than that sraight up. He thinks Wisconsin wins this game close, but no way is it a blow out.

by TitaniumTim on Oct 20, 2011 6:50 AM CDT up reply actions  

Eff Colin Cowherd.

That guy is a douchebag.

"Everyone who drinks is not a poet. Maybe some of us drink because we're not poets." - Arthur Bach

by Spartan D on Oct 20, 2011 9:00 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

If Colin Cowherd told me the sky was blue

I’d look out the window expecting it to be neon orange.

That said, broken clock, blind squirrel, etc. I remember all too vividly what happened the last time Wisconsin came in here and played a night game with a highly ranked, unbeaten team. I don’t think we’re going to see a repeat of that, but at minimum we’ll keep it close.

I’m going to be out of commission for the weekend (making the trip up for the game), so I suppose I’d best get my pick in now too. MSU 27, Wisconsin 21.

I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.

by SpartanDan on Oct 20, 2011 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions  

Cowherd is a Tool

Colin loves him some Colin and is obnoxious on the air along with pretty much everyone that works at ESPN…I hate the fact that when Skip Bayless is wrong it is NEVER brought up but he thinks he is the smartest man alive. First take is the worst sports show on TV!

Back to the game we always play Wisconsin tough at home no way they blow us out. I also like that their strength the O Line is going up against our strength the D Line.

The key to the game is our Offense against their Defense if Kirk Plays well we don’t turn the ball over I think we win. Wisconsin’s Defense has not been tested against a good throwing QB like Cousins and I think we’ll be able to run the ball against them just call it a hunch.

Wisconsin has a history of choking in big hostile road games (hell who doesn’t in the Big Ten), but Spartan Stadium is going to be rocking so I’ll give the nod to us GO GREEN!

by MSUMC25 on Oct 20, 2011 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

Cowherd is hilarious

He’s clearly playing up a persona and doesn’t believe most of what he says. I wouldn’t trust him about anything

by hascow on Oct 20, 2011 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

Good points CPT

One other thing to factor in is that they have only played at home besides a neutral site game against N. Illinois. You know what Wisconsin’s road record in the Big Ten is under Beliema? 10-10. You know how many times Wisconsin under Beliema has beat a Big Ten team that finished in the top 25 on the road? 0.

Here are their road wins; 3 @ Indiana, 2 @ Purdue, 2 @ Minnesota, 2 @ Iowa, 1 @ Michigan.

Wisconsin is an excellent team and 3 weeks ago I thought we had no chance. However, when you consider our improved play, the cupcake schedule they’ve played at home, and their road record the last 5 years I really think we have a chance. I expect a close game Saturday night. If we can average 4+ YPC I really like our chances for the upset.

by Stones1981 on Oct 20, 2011 7:13 AM CDT up reply actions  

I don't like to compare schedules...

MSU has only really played one true road game @ Notre Dame. That’s it. One game doesn’t mean that much. With regards to schedules, Michigan was really that big of a game. They were clearly over hyped and ranked. So, that being said, cupcakes have been on both teams schedule’s.

by TitaniumTim on Oct 20, 2011 8:34 AM CDT up reply actions  

2 road games

You’re forgetting the other road game in Columbus, which is kind of a tough place to play.

"It was worth it. Every needle, every dose of medicine that I've taken. That's why you play the game. A chance to be on a Final Four team, a chance to win championships." Delvon Roe

by Ducking Delvon on Oct 20, 2011 8:49 AM CDT up reply actions  

As Ducking Delvon said we've actually played 2 tough road games

The main point I was trying to make is that Wisconsin under Beliema has been a different team on the road (as most college teams are).

by Stones1981 on Oct 20, 2011 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions  

Vs. ranked opponents

Stones, I like your stats and I completely agree with you that after that ND fail and Bucky’s drubbing of the Huskers I thought we were in for a hurt piece. Now I’m with you, I think it’ll be close and an old school Big Ten power game.

To your point about Wisconsin under Beliema on the road Vs. top 25, I like seeing that goose egg as much as the next Spartan but (and someone who’s got the numbers at hand check this for me please and thanks) I’m pretty sure I heard it twice this week on ESPN and Sirius College Sports that MSU is winless against top ten opponents under Dantonio so lets not get too caught up in the ranked stats.

by SGTSparty on Oct 21, 2011 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

Winless against top ten opponents....

MSU is 0-2 against Top Ten opponents under Dantonio: a 49-14 loss at then-#8 Penn State in 2008, and the 15-13 loss at home to then-#6 Iowa in 2009.

by CPT Hoolie on Oct 22, 2011 5:48 AM CDT up reply actions  

2010 Rose Bowl

They stole it from us. I hope we carry that sentiment into the game and come out ferocious. Let’s show them how it felt to play Alabama. I live in Madison, but will be traveling to EL to be at this game. We CAN win this game, and we CAN beat them again in Indy. Bucky wants our roses again this year? Come and take them.

by StickyGreen on Oct 20, 2011 5:20 AM CDT via mobile reply actions  

I blame Ohio State way, way more

for the bowl situation last year. If OSU loses one more conference game, that means UW and MSU at 7-1 = MSU Rose Bowl. I don’t think Wisconsin stole anything, they just had the good fortune to lose first and had the most time to rise in the BCS rankings from that lost.

by Pete Rossman on Oct 20, 2011 5:24 AM CDT up reply actions  

Honestly I do agree, but...

I’m a Spartan living in Madison. It sure as heck felt like they stole something last year. I want to beat those smug little badgers sooooo bad.

by StickyGreen on Oct 20, 2011 6:59 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

They lost first and we got absolutely blown out at Iowa. Had that loss been a close one things could’ve turned out differently.

I also blame OSU.

by Dano517 on Oct 20, 2011 10:11 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

OSU is the Problem

First OSU cheated their way to 11 wins last year, but even that aside their were 3 CO- Champions MSU, Wisc, OSU. MSU beat Wisc and Wisc beat OSU. What Co-Champ did OSU beat NEITHER and they still got to go to a BCS game. A matter of fact I don’t think OSU beat a single ranked team in the final top 25 rankings! I believe Iowa fell out of there after the loss to Minnesota.

The BCS is the problem it’s all driven by money and not play on the field. College football is the only division 1 sport not settled with a playoff. Pure Stupidity.

by MSUMC25 on Oct 20, 2011 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

The main thing that worries me...

Is that their rushing game has scored more points than MSU has as a team. Still Bielema is crap on the road. I’m going mSU 20-17.

by SpartanBDF on Oct 20, 2011 7:20 AM CDT via mobile reply actions  

Wisconsin has not been a good road team

Maybe, Cousins will be able to walk the streets of Madison with two fingers up.

by MSU1978 on Oct 20, 2011 7:23 AM CDT reply actions  

WI is cremating opponents

Yesterday there was an article about this and Boise State, basically as long as you kill the inferior teams it indicates a good performance against strong teams.

Wisconsin has definitely done this. How did Indiana run for that many yards? I missed the game so I’m not sure if it was broken tackles, big gaps on the line, etc.

I think our defense is really good, but we’ve only played one team with a run and pass threat, Notre Dame. Our D line didn’t get much pressure on Rees as I recall. I’m willing to bet WI has a better One line than ND. As stated, I think it comes down to our secondary and possible coverage sacks. Is Wilson a scrambler or pick up yards on designed runs? I’m worried about our linebackers vacating the middle and Wilson picking up 7-15 yards.

by msuduster on Oct 20, 2011 7:35 AM CDT via mobile reply actions  

Tough to tell

While I’m not totally sold on Wisc being the dominant team they appear to be so far this year, I can definitely see that the tools are there on paper. This is definitely going to test the balance of our defense; we can’t just rush 7 guys at the QB like we were doing against UofM, and this means more difficulty with things like contain and coverage.

I’m quite a bit more worried about us on the offensive side of the ball. Our offense hasn’t been that great this year, and we have had quite a few unforced (or almost unforced) turnovers. That likely isn’t going to get the job done against Wisc, and we are going to need more than a few points to win this one methinks

"It's a trap!"

by AdmiralAkbar on Oct 20, 2011 9:21 AM CDT up reply actions  

Just a quick thing-

About half of Indiana’s ground yards came on a 67 yard touchdown run where the linebacker called out the wrong coverage, and displaced the strong safety.

It obviously still happened, but it’s a correctable thing. Anyone who watched the game could tell the Hoosiers were not that effective on the ground.

Bucky's 5th Quarter The best site for Badger news on the web!

by John Veldhuis on Oct 20, 2011 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

secondary

I think our ability to stop Wisky depends largely on how well the secondary covers one-on-one. The DL will hold their own. Can we continue to aggressively blitz a team with an accurate QB? Secondary lapses that um and OSU could not convert will be fatal against Wilson.

Brian at mgoblog has a good article and links to another regarding MSU snap-timing and A-gap double blitzing.

by Dano517 on Oct 20, 2011 10:20 AM CDT via mobile reply actions  

Agreed

I think your right, it seems like MSU has always struggled when its secondary struggles. That said IF we can control the run And we can get some good heat on Wilson, which he really hasn’t seen much off yet this year, then I think our secondary could have a big day. They’ve been very opportunistic this year and if we can get Wilson to throw some passes under duress then we could see a some INT’s and a nice turnover margin.

by SGTSparty on Oct 21, 2011 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

3 steps sound easier than they really are

All do respect to this article’s author, you can write a bullshit three steps to beat any team, that doesn’t make it realistic. Also, about the comment with Russell Wilson’s rushing, he has only run if he ABSOLUTELY must, and each time he has looked composed and gotten a ton of first downs. Last week you played a fast quarterback that is run-first and breaks down under pressure, welcome to the opposite of that.

Badgers: 34 Spartans: 20

by Badgers7 on Oct 20, 2011 12:05 PM CDT reply actions  

You're right that

It’s easier said than done. And this write up kind of reminds me of the prognosticaion on Bucky’s 5th Q right now.

But hey, that’s why they play the games!!!

by MSUDersh on Oct 20, 2011 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

God bless Badgers Fans

Always nothing but classy. Given that this Wisconsin team is obviously the greatest football team in the history of the sport you’re probably right that MSU doesn’t stand a chance and there probably is no reason to either talk about or even play the game.

by MooTheKow on Oct 20, 2011 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

Also -

They poster is ‘due’ respect – not ‘do’ respect.

by MooTheKow on Oct 20, 2011 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

It isn't realistic

But it is possible. And this comes from a dyed-in-the-wool Badger fan. The fact is, Wisconsin really hasn’t played a defense like Michigan State yet, much less on the road. Nebraska had talent, but no cohesion; that much is evident by their performances against Washington, Ohio State, etc. The rest of the teams we’ve played are laughably bad on that side of the ball.

Michigan State is going to play relentless defense. This is more their game of the year than it is ours (with all undue respect to tO$U). Do I think Wisconsin has the horses to overcome Michigan State? Yes. Do I think Michigan State has a shot to take Wisconsin out of their comfort zone for the first time all year? Absolutely.

I like UW by 4 at the half, 13 at the final whistle.

by fennec3x5 on Oct 20, 2011 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

Reading comprehension issues?
After the jump, three ways that the Spartans can game plan for Wisconsin’s explosive offense.

The article is about 3 ways to game plan for just your offense. No where does he say it’ll be easy. The whole introduction is full of compliments about your offense.

by Stones1981 on Oct 20, 2011 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I'm pretty sure you missed the point of the article

The title employs a little tool called sarcasm. No one here or anywhere thinks state can just come in and use 3 theoretical ideas to beat a great Wisconsin team, all three of those steps are very complex with a lot of moving parts. That is why college football coaches get paid like they do, not many people can do their job. They are just a well informed preview of some things we might try to beat you guys.

As far as your point on Russell Wilson goes, I agree with you, but what you’re saying is exactly what Pete was saying in the article, treat him as a passer, not a runner. If we treat him as a runner, he’ll throw right over our blitzes.

by one23 on Oct 20, 2011 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

My concern is a potential letdown after the um game

I know WE have been wrapped up in the whole Gholston thing; question is, has our team been wrapped up in it? How (or if) it has affected the team? Do we play with a little less fire than we might normally for fear of penalties? Are we still fixated on the um win? Are we gonna come out flat? Prior to last week, I liked our chances against Whisky, but not so sure today. I just hope our coaches earn their paychecks and keep them focused. I don’t know how this week’s practice went – poor practice produces piss-poor performance.
Call me a nervous nelly about this one.

by tomax powers on Oct 20, 2011 5:51 PM CDT reply actions  

Letdown

I’m with you regarding the let down after U of M. We have the gnarliest October schedule in the NCAA and pretty much everyone has said so, add in to that the emotions spent at O$U and last week and thats a recipe for a let down. That said, I think under the lights, at home, on homecoming vs. the team everyone expects to be the waiting at the end of the year to play the first Big Ten championship game and I think the boys will be up.

As for coming out with less fire on Defense, I don’t see that happening. Based on the coaches comments I heard this week I think the coaching staff loved the aggressiveness and toughness. Given Dantonio’s straight edge nature my humble guess is he would have come out stronger against Gholston except that he didn’t want the team to play any less passionately, just smarter.

by SGTSparty on Oct 21, 2011 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

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