Race for the Roses 2011: Week 4


Last week's action:

  • MSU 28, Michigan 14. The game itself has been more than adequately covered already; as far as the division races go, it provides a critical tiebreaker edge.
  • Penn State 23, Purdue 18. The kicking game was Purdue's undoing, as they missed a FG, a PAT, and a two-point conversion attempted to tie the game midway through the fourth (where a PAT would have been enough had they made the first). That's the second time PSU has let one of the Big Ten's bottom-feeders hang around, but they now sit at 6-1 despite some very erratic QB play.
  • Wisconsin 59, Indiana 7. I guess Indiana can be proud that they held Wisconsin to 24 fewer points than last year.
  • Ohio State 17, Illinois 7. Ohio State couldn't throw the ball and didn't really even try (four passes attempted on the day, a number that Army thinks is low), but when your opponents keep wrecking themselves with inopportune turnovers and some incredibly inept end-of-game management you don't really need to.
  • Iowa 41, Northwestern 31. Iowa raced out to a quick 17-0 lead, but when Northwestern came back to tie it in the third quarter Hawkeye fans must have been having flashbacks to their frequent inexplicable losses to the Wildcats. Then the Hawks ripped off another 17 straight in the first half of the fourth quarter.

This week's games and standings tables after the jump.

Bye Weeks: Michigan, Ohio State

Game of the Week: Wisconsin @ Michigan State
While both teams will still control their own destiny for earning a possible rematch, a loss would remove any remaining margin for error. Wisconsin can stake their claim to a spot in the national title race should the presumed favorites (the winners of the Bama/LSU game and the Bedlam rivalry) stumble; MSU really needs this game to have a chance at a BCS at-large bid should we fail to reach and win the conference title game. (The realistic chances for a BCS at-large are to get to 11-1 but lose in the title game, or to lose at Nebraska, finish 10-2, fail to reach the title game, but jump the loser.) The no-margin ratings have this game a dead heat (Wisconsin is the nominal favorite with a 50.2% chance to win), but margin-aware is much higher on Wisconsin (67%, 5-point favorites).

Mismatch of the Week: Nebraska @ Minnesota
Lots to choose from for this category, actually, with the bottom four all in competition against top or mid-tier teams, but this one gets the edge for featuring the worst of the Big Ten tire fire teams. Home field cuts Nebraska's edge down to 90% in the no-margin ratings, 93% (18 points) in the margin-aware.

Other Big Ten Games
Illinois @ Purdue: Illinois 72% no-margin, 62% (3.5 pts) margin-aware
Indiana @ Iowa: Iowa 85% no-margin, 89% (14.5 pts) margin-aware
Penn State @ Northwestern: Penn State 81% no-margin, 75% (7.5 pts) margin-aware

Projected Standings: No-Margin System

West Division

Team Rank Avg wins 8-0 7-1 6-2 5-3 4-4 3-5 2-6 1-7 0-8 Bowl Outright Share
Michigan St 21 6.11 7.66% 28.48% 37.27% 21.04% 5.06% 0.47% 0.01% N/A N/A 99.99% 40.78% 69.99%
Michigan 14 5.33 N/A 11.85% 33.26% 34.59% 16.50% 3.54% 0.26% N/A N/A 100% 12.48% 34.34%
Nebraska 16 4.98 N/A 6.30% 25.45% 36.95% 23.59% 6.83% 0.86% 0.04% N/A 99.96% 9.49% 27.27%
Iowa 52 4.22 N/A 1.33% 10.21% 28.16% 35.12% 20.03% 4.78% 0.39% N/A 94.85% 3.08% 11.36%
Northwestern 97 1.84 N/A N/A N/A 0.21% 3.39% 18.82% 41.27% 30.12% 6.20% 13.25% * 0.05%
Minnesota 115 0.85 N/A N/A 1 in 245k 0.02% 0.35% 3.31% 16.41% 40.67% 39.24% 0.02% * *

 

Michigan State is still ranked third in the ratings among the teams in the West (due to much weaker out-of-conference opposition than Nebraska or Michigan), but the fact that that loss is out of conference and our conference record is still unblemished gives us the edge. Nebraska and Iowa both have control of their own destinies as well; Michigan does not (they need us to lose at least twice). Northwestern's skid has left their bowl hopes in tatters.

East Division

Team Rank Avg wins 8-0 7-1 6-2 5-3 4-4 3-5 2-6 1-7 0-8 Bowl Outright Share
Penn State 15 6.04 7.35% 26.92% 36.13% 22.48% 6.45% 0.66% N/A N/A N/A 100% 31.38% 55.95%
Wisconsin 11 6.04 7.89% 26.89% 35.30% 22.23% 6.77% 0.88% 0.04% N/A N/A 100% 32.01% 56.81%
Illinois 25 4.96 N/A 5.71% 24.53% 37.59% 24.92% 6.71% 0.55% N/A N/A 100% 6.50% 20.02%
Ohio State 42 3.50 N/A N/A 1.98% 13.75% 33.70% 35.07% 14.08% 1.43% N/A 84.50% 0.22% 2.34%
Purdue 84 2.96 N/A 0.05% 0.92% 6.62% 22.00% 35.82% 27.19% 7.40% N/A 29.59% 0.11% 0.91%
Indiana 110 1.17 N/A N/A N/A 0.03% 0.68% 6.43% 26.00% 42.84% 24.03% 0.03% * *

 

Penn State actually has an infinitesimal lead in terms of average wins, largely due to not having had their bye week yet (thus three wins in the books rather than two). Illinois drops way back, and Ohio State's bowl chances are greatly improved by the road win against the Illini. Purdue has a tough fight ahead for bowl eligibility but it's not hopeless.

Projected Standings: Margin-Aware System

West Division

Team Rank Avg wins 8-0 7-1 6-2 5-3 4-4 3-5 2-6 1-7 0-8 Bowl Outright Share
Michigan St 20 5.98 5.09% 24.60% 39.89% 24.68% 5.42% 0.32% 1 in 18,900 N/A N/A 99.99% 29.34% 60.34%
Michigan 11 5.79 N/A 23.79% 40.98% 26.37% 7.79% 1.02% 0.04% N/A N/A 100% 23.26% 52.69%
Nebraska 15 5.00 N/A 5.34% 25.79% 39.42% 23.31% 5.59% 0.54% 0.02% N/A 99.98% 7.92% 24.78%
Iowa 49 4.16 N/A 0.91% 8.45% 27.12% 37.28% 21.63% 4.34% 0.27% N/A 95.39% 2.13% 8.99%
Northwestern 81 2.00 N/A N/A N/A 0.26% 4.40% 22.62% 43.46% 26.10% 3.16% 20.81% * 0.04%
Minnesota 115 0.53 N/A N/A 1 in 9.60M 1 in 86,500 0.05% 0.86% 7.81% 34.11% 57.17% * * *

 

The gap is somewhat closer here, in part because Wisconsin (ahead on MSU's schedule, not on Michigan's at all and already played by Nebraska) is rated much more highly. But the order is the same.

East Division

Team Rank Avg wins 8-0 7-1 6-2 5-3 4-4 3-5 2-6 1-7 0-8 Bowl Outright Share
Wisconsin 7 7.00 31.66% 42.26% 20.87% 4.71% 0.48% 0.02% 1 in 432k N/A N/A 100% 71.28% 89.35%
Penn State 26 5.61 1.86% 16.76% 36.53% 31.61% 11.69% 1.54% N/A N/A N/A 100% 8.70% 24.31%
Illinois 36 4.42 N/A 1.45% 11.60% 32.49% 37.44% 15.59% 1.44% N/A N/A 100% 1.24% 5.94%
Ohio State 35 3.51 N/A N/A 1.35% 12.46% 36.20% 36.43% 12.73% 0.82% N/A 86.44% 0.08% 1.12%
Purdue 74 2.98 N/A 0.01% 0.54% 6.27% 23.16% 36.96% 26.33% 6.72% N/A 29.98% 0.03% 0.33%
Indiana 103 1.04 N/A N/A N/A 1 in 15,500 0.28% 4.03% 23.01% 45.00% 27.68% 0.01% * *

 

Factor in Wisconsin's obscene margins of victory and Penn State's nailbiters and this race looks much less interesting.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join The Only Colors

You must be a member of The Only Colors to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Only Colors. You should read them.

Join The Only Colors

You must be a member of The Only Colors to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Only Colors. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker