Preview -- Wisconsin at Michigan State
by Pete Rossman on Oct 21, 2011 5:15 AM CDT
in Michigan State Spartans Football
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YOUR MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. THE WISCONSIN BADGERS
SPARTAN STADIUM, EAST LANSING, MI
TV: ESPN RADIO: SPARTAN SPORTS NETWORK: (AFFILIATES)
EAST LANSING VISITORS GUIDE: HERE!
TICKETS: HERE!
31 points. That's been Wisconsin's least margin of victory so far in a 48-17 victory over Nebraska 20 days ago in Madison. While the Badgers' composition may be decent (Nebraska) to weak (everyone else), they've destroyed every team they've played so far. They've put up less than 40 points in one game this season. Wisconsin is a very good team, but are they of national championship caliber?
After the jump, a look at the Badgers on offense, defense, special teams, and the standard prediction.
ON OFFENSE
Good is an understatement for how well Wisconsin has moved the ball this season. The Badgers are 8th in the nation with 523.2 yards per game, and sadly for MSU, that's not the most impressive part. They're leading the nation with 7.8 yards per play; that is a lot. They've attained a lot of this yardage through explosive plays. Wisconsin is second in the FBS with 22 plays of 30+ yards, and tied for third in the FBS with 13 plays of 40+ yards.
Behind many of these explosive plays is the Badgers' rental at quarterback (no criticism, MSU did the same thing with Brandon Wood), Russell Wilson. I wasn't sure if the way Wilson played (a playmaker supreme) would be a good fit at Wisconsin (hand the ball off, convert third downs when needed, throw deep a few times a game), but I was wrong. Wilson leads the FBS in passing efficiency and is rightfully one of the leaders to win the Heisman. He'll have receivers to throw to, as Nick Toon is back from injury. Below, we have an exclusive photo of NickToon.
He looks great. But seriously, a healthy Toon and receiver Jared Abbrederis are two primary targets along with tight end Jacob Petersen.
I haven't even gotten to Montee Ball and James White yet. The two primary running backs for the Badgers have been fantastic this year, both averaging 6.0 yards or more per carry. The 5'11", 210 lb. Ball gets more of the carries than the 5'10", 195 lb. White (107 to White's 69), and 12 more touchdowns (16 to 4) as well. Even though Ball has a little more mass, I'm not sure it matters who gets the ball more. It appears both kill weak defenses just as dead.
ON DEFENSE
While the Badger offense has gotten the majority of the media's attention this Fall, the defense has been almost, if not as efficient. At 4.4 yards allowed per play, Wisconsin's defense is tied for 10th among all FBS teams in that metric. While the stout defense may not be based on plays behind the line of scrimmage (UW is tied for 45th in the FBS with 6.33 tackles for a loss per game), it's still nonetheless been very, very effective.
While J.J. Watt, the Thor of last year's defense has left, inside linebacker Chris Borland (5'11", 245 lbs!!) has returned from a shoulder injury that made him miss most of last season. Borland's averaged 1.43 tackles for a loss per game this season, good for a tie for 24th in the nation in the statistic. He's the new playmaker on the Badger defense, and the Big Ten freshman of the year in 2009 is making up for lost time. He'll be a tough one to control.
Wisconsin has also done a very good job of limiting quarterbacks' efficiency. They've held opposing passers to a rating of 103.83, 13th in the nation (number one? MSU, at 84.39). However, they've allowed teams to complete 59.1% of their passes, which places them right in the middle of the pack (60th) in that metric. There's a reason for that -- they've allowed only three passes of more than 30 yards all season; only three teams (Penn State, Mississippi State, USC) have allowed less. Their philosophy is clear -- bend, but don't break.
Defending the run? Wisconsin can do that as well, albeit not as effectively as they defend the pass. They're allowing 3.48 yards per carry, placing them 38th in that statistic. While the run would seem to be somewhat effective, one has to take into consideration the passing offenses UW has faced has faced has well. The one passing offense in the top half of the FBS in passing efficiency, Nebraska(PSYCH! UN is 70th in passing efficiency), Northern Illinois managed to complete 17 of 27 passes for 173 yards. That's a yards per attempt of 6.7, which isn't great, but isn't bad either.
ON SPECIAL TEAMS
For field goals, the data set is incomplete. Kyle French filled in as well as he could for Philip Welch while the latter was nursing a groin injury; French made both of this two kicks from inside the 30 and missed two kicks longer than 50 yards. Welch, 17-22 for his field goals last year and 8-11 from 40-49 yards will be more than adequate. The punter is Brad Nortman, and although he hasn't had to punt much, he's averaging 43.4 yards per punt, 26th in the FBS.
Wisconsin hasn't had many kick returns (15 total), but James White is the primary kick returner and he's averaged a little over 21 yards per return. Wide receiver and punt returner Jared Abbrederis is dangerous however. He's returned one punt for a touchdown so far this year and has averaged 22.8 yards per return. He must be watched.
FINAL THOUGHTS AND PREDICTION
This game is a strange one to predict. Almost all of the tangibles seem to favor the Badgers, while almost all of the intangibles (College GameDay presence, night game, Homecoming, emotion over Gholston suspension) seem to favor the Spartans. I have no idea how to pick this game -- part of me feels like Wisconsin might falter when facing an opponent at their caliber, but on the other hand they've blown out every team they've faced, and look to be one of the college football elite this season. Despite what some blogs are saying, I think this game will be close. I don't know how they'll do it -- it may be an anomalous Wilson interception, it may be me being a homer -- but I think MSU pulls this out by the slimmest of margins.
FINAL SCORE: MICHIGAN STATE 21, WISCONSIN 20
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I've seen this movie before...
Hyper-accurate Wisconsin quarterback paired with unstoppable run game thanks to massive dairy-fed offensive line comes to East Lansing right after lambasting a puny opponent as a tune-up….
Prior to the MSU game last year, Scott Tolzien was 64 for 84, a 76% completion rate. How’d he do in East Lansing? His worst game of the season, as it turned out: 11 for 25, 44% completion rate, 127 yards.
Prior to the MSU game last year, Wisconsin’s rushing offense was averaging 257.5 yards/game. How’d they do in East Lansing? 165 yards.
I would argue that MSU’s defense is even better this year.
Now, it’s entirely possible that Wisconsin has figured out all the answers, and that Russell Wilson will remain hyper-accurate, and Montee Ball will follow his massive O-line through MSU’s young D-line and smallish linebackers.
[It’s also entirely possible that MSU’s offense leaves the defense out to dry (due to turnovers, inability to score TDs, 3-and-outs, or what-have-you). But unless East Lansing features another trash tornado, even an average Kirk Cousins performance will result in a better day than against Michigan. Wisconsin’s pass D has been solid statistically – #10 nationally at 5.6 YPA allowed – but against three really bad passing offenses: #117 UNLV (4.9 YPA); T-#90 Indiana and Oregon State (6.3 YPA), plus #42 NIU and #44 Nebraska. Prior to the Michigan game, MSU’s passing offense was averaging 7.9 YPA, which would be in the #40 range nationally. Assuming Cousins and the receivers regress to the mean, MSU is in good shape to gain yardage through the air.]
In my mind it’s equally likely that Wisconsin fails its first road test; that the aforementioned Spartan youngish D-line and smallish linebackers dial down the blitz aggressiveness, play gap control, blanket Wisconsin TEs, and spy on Russell Wilson; and Wisconsin leaves East Lansing for the second year in a row on the short end of the scoreboard.
I also am very confident that we won’t see a half-dozen personal foul penalties either. MSU had committed a grand total of two personal fouls in the previous five games, both against Ohio State. [Michigan: you’re d*mn right, it’s you!]
Sorry, Jonathan Frantz @ OTE, but “There’s no way the Badgers slip on the road in East Lansing for the second year in a row” is speculative and is inadmissable as evidence. There are plenty of ways for Wisconsin to slip on the road in East Lansing for the second year in a row.
MSU, 20-17.
Dialing down blitzes
One big benefit that the OSU and UM games give us is that we blitzed so much and so effectively that Wisconsin has no choice but to prepare and gameplan to stop us from doing that again. If you’re right about dialing it down, I think that gives us a strategic advantage in doing something they’re not expecting.
"It was worth it. Every needle, every dose of medicine that I've taken. That's why you play the game. A chance to be on a Final Four team, a chance to win championships." Delvon Roe
by Ducking Delvon on Oct 21, 2011 8:14 AM CDT up reply actions
Who flinches first?
Both teams’ adrenaline will be flowing Saturday night. As you mentioned, turnovers may dictate the workload on MSU’s defense and impact. Consider how Wiscy ‘s offense may lose their prowess if Wilson throws a pick within the first few possessions. RW’s accuracy on the road was more than dubious at NCS.
I can only hope FB #42 TA finds Wiscy’s Borland first!
by MayoSpartan on Oct 21, 2011 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions
Boiled Down
This year: Wisconsin O is better than last year. MSU D is better than last year. The WI stats will come down, ours will go up. Both teams can make all the stats arguments they want, but I’m starting to follow Narduzzi when he says stats are for losers (I do like stats, they lead to fun posts on the internets).
We have more guys capable of making plays on D and this is a game that may be decided by turnover margin and special teams.
Raise a beer if you want Good Keyshawn to show up… Also, Nick Hill, feel free to break off some big kickoff returns.
Forgot to add
Their post and ours barely touch on Gholston. He is a big DE with the speed, emphasis on speed, to chase down Russell Wilson. I don’t know much about Freeman, Drone, or Strayhorn, and as Rexrode says Calhoun which I’m sure surprised everyone.
Go get him Marcus Rush.
Very capable replacements
Drone in particular is a guy who was listed as an “OR” at starting DE when the season began. Freeman has been in on the 3rd down packages quite a bit last season and this season. Strayhorn started as a walk-on, but worked his way into the playing rotation over the last couple years and is now a fifth-year senior. All are active, athletic, and have significant game experience. They don’t match Gholston’s physical presence or raw skills (honestly, who does?) but the dropoff should not be severe.
"It was worth it. Every needle, every dose of medicine that I've taken. That's why you play the game. A chance to be on a Final Four team, a chance to win championships." Delvon Roe
by Ducking Delvon on Oct 21, 2011 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions
I posted this at OTE
Wisconsin is a different team on the road (as most college teams are). Under Beilema they are 10-10 on the road in the Big Ten with zero of those wins against teams that finished the year in the top 25. They’ve lost 3 straight in East Lansing. Last year Wiscy’s avg. margin of victory at home was 32 points while on the road it was 11. Russel Wilson’s completion percentage dropped 9% and his YPA went down 1.8 yards on the road in 2010.
I hope their pattern of not playing as well on the road continues this Saturday. At the same time we can’t make some of the same mistakes that we’ve made the last two games and still expect to win. Turnovers and penalties have turned what should have been very comfortable wins against OSU and UofM into somewhat close games. A big key for me is whether we can average at least 4 YPC. Cousins is a much better QB when he has a good running game.
I’m waiting till gametime to make my prediction.
I think...
That you guys lost the ability to talk any smack after that Capitol One Bowl “showing” ;-)
And your bowl game went how?
I have no problem saying Alabama was a lot better than us. By year’s end, the rest of college football might be saying the same.
You won't get an argument out of me
Wisconsin played a terrible gameplan against TCU and they were simply the better team that day. Can we all agree that tO$U and their tainted Sugar Bowl win is the real enemy here?
Make no mistake....
OSU is persona non grata around these parts. I, for one, will never forgive the cheating rat bastards for costing us a Rose Bowl berth.
But don’t bring up the Cap1 bowl when you lost to a non-AQ team in your bowl game.
"Everyone who drinks is not a poet. Maybe some of us drink because we're not poets." - Arthur Bach
Splitting hairs
TCU by 2 or Alabama by 42, it doesn’t really matter. My original point was that bringing up the game from last year, or smack talk of any sort, is pretty pointless. These are two very different teams than 2010.
ummm
I don’t think you understand the point of smack talk… it’s to talk smack.
And on that note nana-nana-boo-boo stick your head in badger poo poo. GO STATE!
"We were a little fat and sassy" -Tom Izzo
by itsalwaysunnyinEL on Oct 21, 2011 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions
In that case
I’ll let you have your smack talk since it’s going to be the only highlight of your weekend!
ooooohhhhhhhhh snapp
Glad I could open up your mind to the true meaning of “talking smack.”
"We were a little fat and sassy" -Tom Izzo
by itsalwaysunnyinEL on Oct 21, 2011 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Wisconsin fan
If Wisconsin does win, which we all know how well they play in big road games… I hope you get rewarded with playing Bama in your bowl game and see if your still talking then.
by MSUMC25 on Oct 21, 2011 9:08 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I hope so too
I’m from Alabama originally and they are my second favorite team. I hope we get the chance to play the best.
The past is the past
live for today, dream for tomorrow.
That "Buckys 5th Quarter" is an interesting place
Reading that linked article and comments, I kind of feel like I am arguing with my grandpa with the whole “time of possession is a huge metric” argument.
"It's a trap!"
Whoa whoa whoa whoa
…whoa
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves
by SpartyFever on Oct 21, 2011 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions
No - I don't think they're even in the neighborhood as UM.
Badger fans seem to be a pretty good bunch from what I’ve seen.
"Everyone who drinks is not a poet. Maybe some of us drink because we're not poets." - Arthur Bach
ND & UofM redefine obnoxious
So far, this badger is fine by me.
by MayoSpartan on Oct 21, 2011 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions
Not even close
Any person I’ve ever met that went to Wisconsin or is a fan of Wisconsin has been cool and down to earth. They always reminded me of MSU fans. Michigan and OSU fans are delusional douche bags and let’s not forget that.
by MSUMC25 on Oct 21, 2011 9:18 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Hey now
We aren’t all bad. For the record, I think a lot of the guys over at B5Q have no idea what they’re talking about.
I linked my MSU-grad friend the “Why the Badgers will win comfortably at Michigan State” article with the disclaimer “This is the dumbest thing that I have ever read”.
It's not the dumbest thing I've EVER read
I just think the idea that Bielema’s road record was not really even taken into account or addressed as a valid point was a huge oversight and weakness of the article. I honestly have no idea what to expect one way or the other and that’s rooted in the weakness of the Badger Schedule. Nebraska was a quality win, WE THINK, but they did almost lose to OSU at home.
Anyway, like I said to a Michigan fan I know and like last week. “Good luck, I hope your team loses by 3 in a well fought game.”
I'm glad you think so!
But I really don’t see my Badgers rolling Sparty. Like you said, there is no concrete reason for me to believe that Wisconsin is more than smoke and (admittedly very shiny) mirrors. MSU is a good team built on defense and a power running game, playing at home, in a rivalry game with BCS implications. That’s about as tough as an opponent gets.
I'm gettin' that funny feeling again....
All last week, I had all kinds of nervous, yet positive, energy leading up to the UM game. I’ve been relatively calm this week, but after reading some previews and some smack talk from Bucky fans today, I can feel it coming on again…..AND I LIKE IT!
MSU 31
UW 27
"Everyone who drinks is not a poet. Maybe some of us drink because we're not poets." - Arthur Bach
Hope Bielema gets that feeling again, too!
My anxiety tones down a but when I recall Bret melting down on the sideline in 2009 and his tactical miscues during the second half of the Rose Bowl.
by MayoSpartan on Oct 21, 2011 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions
Offense...
MSU’s. State won’t survive if the D has to keep coming out. Against the mass and talent of Wisconsin, that could wear out the D. This would be great game (the real first game) for all aspects of the offense to get in gear. Consistency on offense will be crucial, I believe.
Where have I heard that before...
Look, I’m all for giving credit where credit is due. Wisconsin has been great this year. No doubt about it. Russell Wilson saved that program for a year. Good for them. But, um, and I don’t mean to be rude, but… their fans are become just like Ohio State’s and Michigan’s. Yeah, I said it.
I heard the same exact crap last week ALL week from my Michigan friends. “Oh, you can’t stop Denard”. “Our defense is SO much better than last years.” “We beat Notre Dame and you didn’t.”
The one that bugs me the most is the Denard crap. Its the same for Wilson. Sure he has a decent arm, but who exactly has he thrown against? UNLV (119th), Oregon State (110th), Northern Illinois (103rd), and Indiana (95th) are all at the bottom in YPA. Nebraska is the only team in the top half and they’re at 36. So its not like he has done this against superior competition.
Where I’m going with this is that Michigan State is more battle-tested so far this year than Wisconsin. Say what you will about Ohio State, but going to the Shoe, no matter how the team is doing, is no small feat, and our defense CRUSHED them. Michigan is our bitter in-state rival and our defense, while way over-aggressive, crushed them (for the most part).
All that to say, I think with all the intangibles, and Wisconsin’s lack of any kind of road game, plus Wilson’s inconsistencies on the road while at NCState, we win by 7. 34-27.
Bleeding Green and White since 1989.
And Notre Dame
Not to mention going to Notre Dame and our defense holding them to 275 yards. No one has been able to do that this year. I love Kirk, I think he and the offense will get the job done, but our defense will win this game for us.
I hope it shuts Bucky up real quick.
Bleeding Green and White since 1989.
And I quote
“Wisconsin should know we’re coming,” Lewis said. “They have a good offense, and that quarterback. But they should just know our defense is coming. And just like any other team, if they’re throwing the ball up, our DBs are going to go get it, our linebackers are going to go get it and our linemen are getting after the quarterback. And they’re going to hurt him.”
Don’t throw stones in glass houses, Sparty.
Don't see anything
To inflammatory here. It’s confidence from a defense that has done well. Would be more surprising if he said “we are going with a combination Neville Chamberlain and French defense, hope Wilson is ready to be slapped with throw pillows.”
In otherwords, it’s a more quotable way of saying we’re going to D up and attack.
by msuduster on Oct 21, 2011 1:13 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
In a void, I'd agree
Except one of your defensive studs just got suspended for 1. Throwing a punch and 2. Trying to open Denard Robinson like a soda bottle. Maybe the “And they’re going to hurt him” bit wasn’t the best phrasing when you take that into account.
Unless you guys want to be Thug U 2.0?
He was suspended for the punch. The helmet twist was not mentioned by the big ten. He got 15 yards, end of story.
As for thug U, our number of personal fouls really isn’t out of line.
I chalk it up to being a rivalry game.
Wisconsin should want us to pile up personal fouls. Who doesn’t want 15 yards free??
by msuduster on Oct 21, 2011 2:03 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
If you think every team in the country doesn't try to hurt the opposing QB (within the rules of the game), then you're ignorant.
Unless Joe Bauserman is the opposing QB – defenses LOVE seeing him back there.
"Everyone who drinks is not a poet. Maybe some of us drink because we're not poets." - Arthur Bach
by Spartan D on Oct 21, 2011 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I didn't say that I think that
But saying that the day after one of your players tried to hurt an opposing QB outside the rules of the game is pretty stupid.
Reasonable to say
So far, you ’re remarks are all well grounded and I agree with your point of the ill timed bravado of young Mr. Lewis. Actually, saying that to an undefeated team he has never started a game against … I hope would make Trenton Robinson sit down with Mr. Lewis and explain the benefits of being the predator instead of the prey. Seems to be the principle of playing safety.
LOL
Bauserman…
"We were a little fat and sassy" -Tom Izzo
by itsalwaysunnyinEL on Oct 21, 2011 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions
15 plays, 84 yards, 7:57, Touchdown
That was the game-sealing drive in the 4th quarter last year. It was also the 4th drive of the game that was longer than 4 minutes (Wisconsin had 1 drive longer than 4 minutes, and it was 4:07). Also of note, MSU did not have a single 3-and-out in last year’s game (punted once following a 5-play drive and turned it over a couple times after only 3 plays). These are the most encouraging signs for me in looking at the ability of our offense to not only move the ball, but control the clock and keep their offense off the field. We’ve done it before. Now let’s do it again.
"It was worth it. Every needle, every dose of medicine that I've taken. That's why you play the game. A chance to be on a Final Four team, a chance to win championships." Delvon Roe
by Ducking Delvon on Oct 21, 2011 12:53 PM CDT reply actions
logic fail
Hmmm am I missing something? All of the tangibles aka “things that matter” seem to favor the Badgers, while almost all the intagnibles aka “things that literally have nothing to do with the outcome of the game” seem to favor MSU.
Therefore, I pick MSU to win. I am a Spartan fan.
Yes - you're missing the meaning of the word "intangible"
It doesn’t mean irrelevant, it means hard to measure.
"Everyone who drinks is not a poet. Maybe some of us drink because we're not poets." - Arthur Bach
This must a positive sign for the football program
There has been a rash of trolls signing up for SBN just to subscribe to this blog and troll. Seriously, dude, you didn’t even sign up for a team you liked. You exclusively signed up to hate on us brahs. Troll on, troll. Keep on trolling and don’t look back.
Spartans, I say this is progress.
More literally, it means not touchable
So yes, we cannot touch crowd noise, and measuring its effects are hard. But only a fool would ignore it when empiricism shows that home field matters.
Schadenfreude ist die schoenste Freude
Weird things happen sometimes.
Like, explain to me how a middling JLS squad in 2004 beat an undefeated Wisconsin team. WONDERS NEVER CEASE.
by Pete Rossman on Oct 21, 2011 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Isn't that the same year
That you lost that triple overtime game to Michigan in the big house? The one where Braylon Edwards single-handedly brought UM back from 17 down in like 6 minutes?
Yeah, I bet that one stings a little more than Bucky’s loss to JLS!
Four in a row...
…heals a lot of wounds, guy. What was it that happened to your boys against the worst U of M team since LBJ again?
by witless chum on Oct 22, 2011 12:04 AM CDT up reply actions
Last chance
Anyone have a change of heart?
Here’s my last minute prediction…
WI 27
MSU 20
Dear Spartans, please make me look stupid.
by msuduster on Oct 22, 2011 7:15 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
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