Three Ways Michigan State Can Prevent a Letdown Against Nebraska
by Pete Rossman on Oct 26, 2011 5:30 AM CDT
in Michigan State Spartans Football
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PrintThe last game in an absolutely brutal four game stretch for Michigan State, Saturday's match at Nebraska could prove to ultimately decide the Legends division. While the Spartans have already had a successful season, a win in their first meeting since the 2003 Alamo Bowl would cement October of 2011 as one of the legendary months (if such a thing has been ever defined) in MSU football history. A win over the Huskers for the first time ever (Nebraska leads the series 5-0, with Nebraska winning the last regular season meeting 55-14 in 1996 in Lincoln.
While MSU has been on a roll lately, a letdown could be likely after an emotional finish like last week's. After the jump. Three ways how Nebraska could hurt the Spartans, and how MSU can guard against such pain.
- The Nebraska rushing attack. Job number one for MSU against Nebraska will be to stop the Cornhuskers on the ground. This attack is co-chaired by running back Rex Burkhead and quarterback Taylor Martinez, and to devastating effect. UNL ranks 12th in the nation in yards per attempt at 5.50, and both Burkhead and Martinez are among the top 40 rushers in the nation in yards per game. The good news is that Michigan State played an even better rushing team last week in Wisconsin (7th in the nation at 5.81 yards per carry), the bad news is that MSU can't rely on the Spartan Stadium crowd to goad the Huskers into false starts.
- Taylor Martinez not throwing the ball. Martinez is extremely effective when he keeps the ball in his hands; he averages 5.78 yards per carry -- coincidentally, the same amount as Burkhead. This rushing prowess is starkly contrasted with his passing game, as he ranks 68th in the FBS in pass efficiency. His completion percentage is even worse, as he is 89th in the FBS at 55.0%. The defensive game plan for Nebraska will hopefully be much the same as it was for Michigan -- stack many defenders in the box, force third and longs, and make Martinez beat MSU through the air, where Robinson, Lewis, Adams, Dennard et al. will be waiting.
- Linebacker Lamonte David's internal GPS towards the ball carrier. As a team, Nebraska's defensive numbers have left something to be desired, in no small part due to the loss of defensive tackle Jared Crick for the season due to a torn pectoral muscle. Although they're 42nd in total defensive yards allowed, they're 71st in the FBS in yards allowed per carry (4.33), 99th in sacks per game (1.29), and 114th in the FBS in tackles for a loss per game (3.86). Butkus candidate semifinalist weakside linebacker Lamonte David remains though, and he is ferocious. He leads the Huskers in tackles (64), tackles for a loss (7th), and is second in sacks (2). If the offensive line can keep track of him, that'll be a big step towards victory.
Those are a few of my keys to victory. What are yours?
Don’t forget to show support for your favorite coach by voting him as the 2011 Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year at www.coachoftheyear.com
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2 more ways Nebraska can (will) hurt the Spartans
Special teams: Ameer Abdullah is a speedy freshman, averaging 30+ yards on kickoff returns & 10+ yards on punt returns. Brett Maher: If FGs come into play, we’ve got another super kicker in Maher, having missed only 1 FG attempt at 54 yds. He’s nailed a few alrady over 50.
Memorial Stadium: The fans play a big role when playing at home, and I hope they are on show all MSU fans attending what hospitality is about. I’m sure MSU is use to this kind of environment, playing often at Michigan & Wisconsin, but I think (hope) that the Big Red force will be behind the Huskers all the way on Saturday.
You should team up with Jon over at Corn Nation to provide their analysis of the game – they are normally pretty honest & straight-forward about Nebraska’s +s/-s. I hope those of you from MSU that will be attending the game will have a good time there. Tailgaters will be up & at it early Saturday morning, and are always open to inviting the visiting fans to join in. 11 a.m. seems way to early for a game though to thoroughly enjoy Football Saturday in Lincoln!
GBR!
A Husker in Germany
by MSS1960 on Oct 26, 2011 6:06 AM CDT reply actions 2 recs
Is Memorial Stadium...
…pretty loud? We may be used to going to Ann Arbor, but that’s a pretty quiet 100,000 people, though their renovations are supposed to have changed it.
Just hope that their isn’t something about the Great Plains that makes MSU’s mojo not work west of the Mississippi, something our recent derps at Iowa would suggest.
by witless chum on Oct 26, 2011 8:11 AM CDT up reply actions
Loud? I wouldn't say it is too loud but one often has to scream at your neighbor to be heard
when things are really crazy!
And if you are worried about your mojo, it might start having issues west of the Mississippi, but once it is west of the Missouri River, it will definitely start having some major problems! :)
It has the ability to get up there
My ears were ringing against Ohio State during the comeback, but I wouldn’t say that on average it’s anything too incredible as far as 85,000 seat stadiums go.
"My hardest job is to convince the people of Nebraska that 10-1 is not a losing season." - Tom Osborne
I think you're spot on about the Nebraska rushing game
I was discussing this with some of the folks at Corn Nation (such a great blog name), and told them I saw UN having a similar style of team as MIchigan — speedy, try-to-do-it-all quarterback leading a team, backed up by average receivers. The biggest difference is obviously UN has a monster running back, whereas Michigan did not. I feel like Narduzzi’s approach to this will be similar to how he approached the MIchigan game — heavy amounts of blitzing up the middle, flush Martinez out of the pocket, and watch out for Burkhead. If we can make him pass, just keep Lewis and Robinson on their A game and wait for the interceptions to come to us.
Offensively… I just don’t know anymore. I thought for SURE that Wisconsin was going to shut down our running game, because so many teams have proven to be able to in the last two years. It’s not that I doubt our running backs, and our OL seems to have figured itself out as well, it’s just that we’ve seen basically a feast or famine in the running game for a while now. That said, if we need to, I’m pretty sure Cousins can pass on their secondary all day. I’m really hoping to see more TE use in this game, because our TEs ALWAYS come through for us, and they’re almost always open on every play they aren’t blocking on.
Pfeh, I don’t know.
"The open threads on game days are like fevered dreams: Everyone is hammered and then shit gets burned." - Truffle Shuffle
by The Ghost of John Hannah on Oct 26, 2011 7:36 AM CDT reply actions
at this point in the coach D regime i trust the coaches.
i think it’s interesting that the majority of analysis is about what our D can do against nebraska. every game is winnable because of our ability to stop the opposition.
between last year and this year, it is clear that the talent — and especially the depth — on the roster is upgraded and perfectly suited to run the defense as expected. and from what i’ve seen in our defensive scheming and execution, the coaches are doing a very good job of exploiting our opponents’ tendencies and weaknesses. witness the double A-gap blitzing against michigan. the snap timing between molk and DR was obvious on tape, and it wasn’t something that could change at halftime. they saw it and exploited it to great effect.
i don’t know what nebraska’s tendencies are apart from the statistics that we can all mine, but i trust coach D and narduzzi to find them and scheme for them. and then i trust them to make adjustments post-halftime.
We need to be able to run the ball
and we should be able to. Nebraska has given up a lot of yards on the ground and that was with Crick. Fresno (4.8 YPC), Washington (4.7 YPC), Wisconsin (4.6 YPC), and OSU (5.9 YPC) all had very good days rushing against Nebraska.
If we’re able to win this game and finish off this brutal October 4-0 I’ll be so impressed with this team.
In all honesty, just show the Spartan defense this video
Highlights:
“Spartan defense didn’t stop Denard Robinson, the wind did”
“The defense is just another B1G defense…good, but not great”
“Wisconsin was the better team, MSU just got lucky”
On the other hand, the Pelini presser was pretty complimentary to MSU. Perhaps he should talk to his QB about giving the opposing team some fodder for the flame.
The video seems to be on the fritz
Here is an audio link, the fifth one from the top
by SpartyFever on Oct 26, 2011 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions
Also
“I don’t think Nichol was in for the TD. They should have gone to OT”
by SpartyFever on Oct 26, 2011 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions
Good to know his eyesight is awful.
Seriously, you’d think a guy would know not to spout off like that.
I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
I wouldn't take ANYTHING Martinez says in his interviews to heart.
If you were a Husker fan, you would understand why. He simply and nervously says the first thing that comes to mind when they interview him, and many times, it comes out less than tactful.
Regarding the game, this is one of the last games I would ever feel comfortable betting money on. What worries me as a Husker fan, is that this NU team has completely underwhelmed and, at times, been very disappointing. MSU has a great chance to walk out of Lincoln with another W if our offense can’t sustain long scoring drives against MSU’s stout D.
On the other hand, MSU has shown their inherent ability to fall apart at any given time, as long as I can remember (they did lose to Notre Dame, for crying outloud)
Even if I wasn't an MSU alum & die-hard fan
I don’t know if I could ever put money on a State football game – they are far too unpredictable, and like you said, have an unfortunate history of crapping the bed at the worst possible time (likewise, they also have a history of pulling off upsets that otherwise seemed like a completely safe bet the other way).
Not the Same Old Spartans
Aren’t we like 19-4 (10-1 in the Big Ten) over the last stretch?
2010-11 Calendar Year Losses – Texas Tech, Iowa, Alabama, ND
With wins against ranked opponents, or on the road, or trap games, or come from behind.
I was tempted to bet on this game, but 4 is a low number. I’m looking forward to Iowa, all the dillusional Iowa fans and scared MSU fans will run the line up to MSU +7, it’ll be great.
i once bet on MSU losing to Kentucky in basketball..
..thinking I could at least make some cash if MSU lost, or I would happily ‘pay’ for a victory, etc, something like that..
Chris Hill hit an uncontested three as time expired to beat the spread. Double loss, karma gets me right in the face. I no longer bet on my team.
You know who h reminds me of in that interview?
Tate Forcier. And it’s because of the attitude.
Yeah, I realize that he was being interviewed by a Detroit guy, so maybe some type of machismo he was throwing out to show that the MSU media isn’t even worthy of his time, but it makes him look like a petulant, immature child.
This reminds me of the attitude that Forcier used to show – pouting at the end of the bench when he wasn’t playing, skipping out on scheduled post-game conferences when he lost, and talking sh*t & making asinine comments to the media when they did catch up with him. Not to mention his tweetfest when he decided to leave M, blaming the school/football team for giving up on him & forcing him to leave.
Hopefully, Coach Bo will point to people like Cousins or even (gasp!) Denard as examples of how a QB should conduct himself in public.
The difference between Martinez in Forcier...
Forcier arrogantly ran his mouth and Twitter account. Martinez appears arrogant and “petulant” because he agonizes talking to the media. He’s an invert, and does not do well, personally, in the spotlight.
He’s a low-key fella, just isn’t very self-aware while talking with the media. Hopefully he can let his feet and arm do the talking for him during the game.
Thats fair
And makes sense, I’m dealing with a tiny sample size (one interview) so obviously that doesn’t come close to telling this kid’s entire story.
Alright, I finished listening to the audio
Either he’s trying very hard to downplay the hype, or he’s completely uninformed about MSU’s D.
Funniest part of that video
Is the comment section below. One comment, from Rita Smith: “Throw it to the guys in red, not green.”
Made me laugh.
by SpartyFever on Oct 26, 2011 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions
Lack of an edit button
Been a fail for a long time
by SpartyFever on Oct 26, 2011 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions
I was thinking....
….you Huskers knew more about your player’s belly buttons than we typically do.
by witless chum on Oct 26, 2011 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Between the bulletin board material here
And the massive chip that already existed with out team (look at Robinson’s interview with Adam Rittenberg after the UW win) I do not think motivation should be an issue. This team feels disrespected, and one week of grudging credit will not change that.
Schadenfreude ist die schoenste Freude
After watching many years of MSU
I could care less if we’re disrespected. In fact, I revel in it now. Let them talk their talk. As long as we keep pounding them on the field, they can downplay us all they want.
by SpartyFever on Oct 26, 2011 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Coming from a Husker fan...
We would much rather be disrespected than constantly over-rated. 4 years straight there has been pre-season national championship talk about the Huskers. I’ll take the disrespect than unachievable expectations.
Agreed, and the Legends thing...
I’m sure that a team of many MSU firsts, or firsts in a long time, would love to add 1st Legends Division Champion to the list, and this weekend is a huge step in that direction.
O-line is key
I think our D should be able to contain the Nebraska running game enough to win. For me, the big question is how the patched-up offensive line performs. If Baker and Bell can run the ball, we should be ok. If they can’t, Cousins is going to be pressured and it could get dicey. Of course, turnovers are always a potential issue, particularly with the slippery fingers we’ve seen of late.
Martinez & Robinson
If Martinez doesn’t think that the MSU Spartan defense didn’t stop Robinson two weeks ago, then he has something coming on Saturday. He mentioned that the wind was the only thing that held Robinson in check against Michigan State. It’s gonna be a long day for that young man.
Do not taunt Happy Fun Ball the Spartan defense. You might live to regret it.
I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
Stick it to Delany
Walking into Lincoln, the home of Big Jim’s prized acquisition and putting them down? Fantastic.
http://pittsfieldindex.blogspot.com/
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Pittsfield-Ratings-Index/142673082487903
by PittsfieldIndex on Oct 26, 2011 8:36 PM CDT reply actions
I just don't have a good feeling about this game
I’d like to think that MSU can put together another shutdown defensive performance.
But the overaggressiveness on the part of the LBs — seen at the end of the Wisconsin game, when Wisco scored 2 TDs to tie it up — is still an issue for those teams that are able and willing to exploit it. I have images in my head of repeated RB wheel route TDs (from the MSU-PSU finale a couple of years ago).
I can’t decide if this game reminds me more of last year’s Iowa game or last year’s Illinois game. I hope it turns out more like the latter than the former.
I’m going to go with my head rather than my heart and say Nebraska, 27-24. Sure hope I’m wrong.
I think most Husker fans are in the same boat as you are.
Nebraska has not been consistent in any of its games, having 1, perhaps 2 good quarters, and 2 really bad quarters. If you had a chance to see the Huskers vs Buckeyes, it was like watching two different Husker teams if you compare their 1st half performance with their 2nd half performance.
If we can finally put together a complete game, like all Husker fans are wishing & hoping for, I think the Huskers will come out on top. Martinez has to keep his head, not try to push things, and Beck has to be a little more patient in his play calling.
I don’t think it will be a high-scoring game, and I think it will be close, just as you have predicted, with Nebraska coming out on top.
It's tough to get up for that many games in a row.
I’m not especially worried about the LB issue you’re talking about, though – a lot of that is because Russell Wilson is just not fair (he’s too good with his legs to leave him alone when scrambling and keep covering Ball, too good with his arm to abandon the RB and go after him). Martinez’s arm is not that good; he strikes me as much closer to Denard than Wilson.
I do think this will be a very close game; can’t decide which way it will go, though. On one hand, I think getting up for four huge games in a row (Ohio State, in hindsight, may not have been but it felt like it at the time) is hard for anyone to do (Texas 2008 had their only loss come at the end of a similar gauntlet); on the other, if anything can achieve that, the comments Martinez made about our defense probably will.
I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
That's a good point
Nebraska is obviously a run-first offense (run-pass balance is 68%/32%). They just don’t throw the ball that much. So the quickness of the OLBs probably offsets the screen/wheel threat.
Here’s a RPS question: Does Nardo call run blitzes on Saturday? Or does he load up the box and play gap control?
Does anyone else think the early game helps us? I’m not sure a bunch of 18-22 year olds could get amped up again for another prime time game. Also, it’s always been my experience fans are more subdued for early starts.
I’ve never been to memorial stadium, but I will assume it gets crazy loud for afternoon and night games. Stadium looks beautiful, would love to see a game there sometime.
As long as we fill the gaps and defend the option ok we can leave the receivers in single coverage. Not trying to disparage their WRs, but they don’t have Michael Floyd running post routes. I like our secondary and bringing corners off the edge a la Johnny Adams.
by msuduster on Oct 27, 2011 8:34 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Three more ways MSU wins in Lincoln ...
Pete seems to focus on the defense stoping the Husker running game and MSU having a running game. Pete probably knows more about football than I. While I have watched this season, and specifically the last four games, a few more areas of concern about our Spartans come to mind:
1) As touched upon by CPT Hoolie, STOP the big gainers via the Husker PASSING game. MSU LB’s and DB’s can’t bite on fakes and stick to their assignments to prevent wheel routes, over-pursuing and miscommunications leading to blown coverages. Our front 7 should prevent T-Magic from having time, but the broken plays could kill us with our often miss-ed assignments leaving wide-open Wolvie and Badger receivers to drop a sure TD pass… can’t hope to get that lucky …. again.
2) Open field tackling – DB’s must wrap up with each and every tackle. T-Magicv & Burkhead’s shiftiness and ability to get a few extra yards on each play tells me its essential to hold em up and gang tackle these guys.
3) MSU OFFENSE must put points on the board in the 2nd half and 4th qtr. Each of the past three games, OSU, scUofM and Wiscy, all had MSU rely on our defense to win it by not giving up more TD’s, but all 3 came back to make it close. So, the offensive production is key (no shit) And, is it a question of creativity or calling plays the worked earlier to start each series or what? I don’t know, but the offense has to keep the MSU D of the field at the end of the game score in the red zone.
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