Race for the Roses 2011: Week 8
by SpartanDan on Nov 14, 2011 8:00 AM CST
in Michigan State Spartans Football
Email
PrintLast week's results:
- Michigan State 37, Iowa 21: An early onslaught put this one out of reach early, as the lead was 31-7 at halftime. Iowa's not out of it yet, but the odds are not good at all. On the other hand, MSU now just has to beat two of the four teams that are not yet bowl eligible to claim a division title.
- Nebraska 17, Penn State 14: A closing stretch that looked plenty brutal before turmoil enveloped the Penn State program got off to a bad start on the field too. Nebraska led 17-0 midway through the third before a Penn State rally fell short. This result keeps both division races well in play; had Penn State won along with MSU, both teams would have had an opportunity to clinch next week without any further help.
- Purdue 26, Ohio State 23 (OT): The Buckeyes looked to be about to escape with a last minute touchdown catch by Jordan Hall, but Purdue blocked the PAT to leave the game tied at 20. Ohio State was held to a field goal in OT, and Robert Marve snuck into the endzone for the win for Purdue. The Buckeyes remain alive for the title, but a nasty closing stretch and needing help makes it very unlikely. On the other hand, Purdue just needs one more win to reach bowl eligibility.
- Michigan 31, Illinois 14: This game was something of a turnover-fest (three by each team). Michigan was already up 17-0 before Illinois crossed midfield, and it never got closer than 10 from there. Michigan remains alive in the West, but their chances of getting the help they need have dropped.
- Wisconsin 42, Minnesota 13: Paul Bunyan's Axe will not be joining Floyd of Rosedale in the Minnesota trophy case this year. Montee Ball set a Big Ten record with his 27th touchdown of the year, and Russell Wilson went 16 of 17 passing on the day.
- Northwestern 28, Rice 6 (non-conference): Dan Persa threw for 372 yards (almost 50% more than all of Rice's total offense, rushing and passing) and the Owls never really threatened, breaking the shutout only in the final five minutes. Like Purdue, the Wildcats need only one more win to reach bowl eligibility.
After the jump: Summary tables and the division race breakdowns.
West Division
No-Margin Summary
| Team | Wins | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Bowl | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State | 6.64 | N | 65.48% | 33.35% | 1.17% | N | N | N | N | N | Y | 88.29% |
| Nebraska | 5.21 | N | N | 31.69% | 57.46% | 10.85% | N | N | N | N | Y | 11.06% |
| Michigan | 5.40 | N | N | 48.48% | 43.36% | 8.16% | N | N | N | N | Y | 0.63% |
| Iowa | 3.60 | N | N | N | 7.43% | 44.90% | 47.67% | N | N | N | Y | 0.03% |
| Northwestern | 3.15 | N | N | N | N | 26.65% | 61.93% | 11.41% | N | N | 88.59% | N |
| Minnesota | 1.45 | N | N | N | N | N | 4.71% | 35.41% | 59.89% | N | N | N |
Margin-Aware Summary
| Team | Wins | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Bowl | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State | 6.63 | N | 63.58% | 35.67% | 0.75% | N | N | N | N | N | Y | 91.02% |
| Nebraska | 5.13 | N | N | 23.11% | 66.61% | 10.28% | N | N | N | N | Y | 8.47% |
| Michigan | 5.59 | N | N | 62.58% | 33.55% | 3.87% | N | N | N | N | Y | 0.50% |
| Iowa | 3.64 | N | N | N | 7.05% | 50.07% | 42.88% | N | N | N | Y | 0.01% |
| Northwestern | 3.28 | N | N | N | N | 32.41% | 62.73% | 4.86% | N | N | 95.14% | N |
| Minnesota | 1.27 | N | N | N | N | N | 1.48% | 24.30% | 74.22% | N | N | N |
Michigan State
Record: 8-2 (5-1 in conference)
Ranking: 16th (+5 from last week) no-margin, 21st (+8) margin-aware
Division record: 3-1 (wins over Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa; loss to Nebraska)
Remaining games:
| Opponent | No-Margin Prob | Margin-Aware Prob | Avg Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 96.3% |
97.9% | +26 |
| @Northwestern | 68.0% |
65.0% | +4 |
Distribution of possible records:
| 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No-margin | 65.48% | 33.35% | 1.17% |
| Margin-aware | 63.58% | 35.67% | 0.75% |
A big win in the toughest game left on the schedule shifts the odds strongly in our favor.
How we can win the division:
- Win both games (65.48% no-margin / 63.58% margin-aware). This gives us the outright title.
- Win one game + Nebraska loses a game (22.78% / 27.43%). In this case we would, at worst, be tied with Michigan.
- Lose twice + Nebraska loses twice + Michigan loses to Ohio State (0.03% / 0.01%). We cannot win any tie with Nebraska (except the BCS scenario described below), so we need two losses from them, but we hold the tiebreaker over both Michigan and Iowa. This would leave us tied with Michigan and possibly Iowa.
- Lose twice + Nebraska loses to Iowa but beats Michigan + Iowa beats Purdue + Minnesota wins twice + BCS standings (0.002% / 0.0002%). Michigan, if involved in the tie, drops out on head-to-head; MSU, Iowa, and Nebraska are tied in head-to-head, division record, record against division opponents down the standings (everyone beat Michigan; Minnesota and Northwestern finish tied at 3-5 and everyone split those two), and common cross-division opponents (none), so the BCS decides it. MSU would have to be the highest ranked team and at least two spots ahead of Nebraska, or the second-highest and only one spot behind Iowa.
Probability of winning the division: 88.29% no-margin / 91.02% margin-aware, plus the minuscule chance of a BCS tiebreaker scenario. The biggest hurdles are already past; all we have to do is win two games that we should win. Even if we lose one, there's not much help necessary.
Clinch this week if: we win and Nebraska loses to Michigan.
Nebraska
Record: 8-2 (4-2)
Ranking: 17th (+9), 17th (+1)
Division record: 2-1 (wins over Michigan State, Minnesota; loss to Northwestern)
Remaining games:
| Opponent | No-Margin Prob | Margin-Aware Prob | Avg Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| @Michigan | 38.5% |
26.9% | -7 |
| Iowa | 82.4% |
85.9% | +12.5 |
Distribution of possible records:
| 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No-margin | 31.69% | 57.46% |
10.85% |
| Margin-aware | 23.11% |
66.61% |
10.28% |
The Huskers have passed the first of two major road tests down the stretch; next up is a chance to eliminate Michigan from the division race (Nebraska can survive a loss, but not without massive chaos; Michigan cannot).
How they can win the division:
- Win twice + MSU loses a game (10.94% / 8.42%). Nebraska would own the tiebreaker on head-to-head.
- Beat Iowa + MSU loses both games + Michigan loses to Ohio State + either Iowa beats Purdue or Minnesota beats Northwestern (0.07% / 0.04%). The three-way tie between MSU, Michigan, and Nebraska would be tied on head-to-head and division record, so the record against the next team or group of teams is decisive. If Iowa finishes ahead of Northwestern (by beating Purdue and Northwestern losing to Minnesota), Michigan drops out of the tie for losing to Iowa and Nebraska holds head-to-head over MSU. If they finish even (with only one of those last two results occurring), it goes to record against common opponents from the other division; Michigan lost to Ohio State but Nebraska and MSU beat them, so Michigan drops out again.
- Beat Michigan + MSU loses twice + Iowa loses to Purdue (0.05% / 0.01%). Head-to-head sweep of the Michigan schools decides it.
- Beat Michigan + MSU loses twice + Iowa beats Purdue + Minnesota wins twice + BCS standings. See MSU section for details; Nebraska would have to be the top-ranked team and two spots ahead of Iowa, or second-ranked and one spot behind MSU.
Probability of winning the division: 11.06% / 8.47%, plus the very-unlikely BCS tiebreaker scenario. Did their job this week, but the best chance they had of getting the help they needed went by the wayside.
Eliminated this week if: they lose and MSU wins, or they lose and Northwestern and Purdue both win.
Iowa
Record: 6-4 (3-3)
Rating: 60th (-9), 49th (-8)
Division record: 2-2 (wins over Northwestern, Michigan; losses to Minnesota, Michigan State)
Remaining games:
| Opponent | No-Margin Prob | Margin-Aware Prob | Avg Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| @Purdue |
42.1% |
50.1% | 0 |
| @Nebraska |
17.6% |
14.1% | -12.5 |
Distribution of possible records:
| 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No-margin | 7.43% |
44.90% |
47.67% |
| Margin-aware | 7.05% |
50.07% |
42.88% |
Iowa went from controlling their own destiny to needing an absolute miracle.
How they can win the division:
- Win twice + MSU loses twice + Nebraska beats Michigan + Minnesota loses at least one game (0.03% / 0.01%). This results in the MSU-Nebraska-Iowa three-way tie that can get as far as the BCS standings, but with Northwestern having a better record than Minnesota, Iowa (by virtue of being the only team among those tied to beat Northwestern) wins the tie before it gets that far. Nebraska must be involved in the tie or MSU wins directly on head-to-head.
- Win twice + MSU loses twice + Nebraska beats Michigan + Minnesota wins twice + BCS standings. See MSU section for details; Iowa would have to be the top-ranked team and at least two spots ahead of MSU, or the second-ranked team and one spot behind Nebraska.
Probability of winning the division: 0.03% / 0.01%. They could not afford a slip-up against either of the contenders left on their schedule; getting one puts them in a very dire situation as far as reaching Indy goes.
Eliminated this week if: they lose, or MSU wins, or Michigan wins.
Michigan
Record: 8-2 (4-2)
Rating: 18th (+5), 10th (+2)
Division record: 2-2 (wins over Northwestern, Minnesota; losses to Michigan State, Iowa)
Remaining games:
| Opponent | No-Margin Prob | Margin-Aware Prob | Avg Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska | 61.5% |
73.1% | +7 |
| Ohio State | 78.8% |
85.6% | +12 |
Distribution of possible records:
| 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No-margin | 48.48% | 43.36% |
8.16% |
| Margin-aware | 62.58% |
33.55% |
3.87% |
Michigan has a good chance of getting to 10 wins, but with one of the losses coming to a team that's a game ahead of them with two relatively easy ones to play, they may have to be satisfied with a second-place finish in the division.
How they can win the division:
- Win twice + MSU loses twice (0.57% / 0.47%). This gives them the outright title.
- Beat Nebraska + Nebraska beats Iowa + MSU loses twice + Purdue beats Iowa + NW beats Minnesota (0.06% / 0.03%). This ends up a three-way tie between Nebraska, MSU, and Michigan with head-to-head and division record equal; if Northwestern finishes ahead of Iowa, Michigan would advance as the only team among the three to defeat Northwestern.
Probability of winning the division: 0.63% / 0.50%. Chances of getting the help they needed are very, very slim.
Eliminated this week if: they lose, or MSU wins.
Northwestern
Record: 5-5 (2-4)
Rating: 68th (+7), 61st (+5)
Remaining games:
| Opponent | No-Margin Prob | Margin-Aware Prob | Avg Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota |
83.2% |
92.5% | +17 |
| Michigan State |
32.0% |
35.0% | -4 |
Distribution of possible records:
| 4-4* | 3-5* | 2-6 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No-margin | 26.65% | 61.93% |
11.41% |
| Margin-aware | 32.41% |
62.73% |
4.86% |
* = bowl eligible
Have to like their shot at bowl eligibility now, needing only one win and hosting Minnesota.
Probability of bowl eligibility: 88.59% / 95.14%
Minnesota
Record: 2-8 (1-5)
Rating: 108th (no change), 111th (-1)
Remaining games:
| Opponent | No-Margin Prob | Margin-Aware Prob | Avg Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| @Northwestern |
16.8% |
7.5% | -17 |
| Illinois |
28.0% |
19.8% | -9.5 |
Distribution of possible records:
| 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| No-margin | 4.71% |
35.41% |
59.89% |
| Margin-aware | 1.48% |
24.30% |
74.22% |
To no one's surprise, Wisconsin slaughtered Minnesota; the effect on the ratings and probability in the remaining games is negligible.
East Division
No-Margin Summary
| Team | Wins | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Bowl | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | 5.95 |
N | 22.28% |
50.89% | 26.83% | N | N | N | N | N | Y | 55.66% |
| Wisconsin | 5.13 | N | N | 31.98% | 49.27% | 18.75% | N | N | N | N | Y | 41.72% |
| Ohio State | 3.66 | N | N | N | 9.59% | 47.26% | 43.15% | N | N | N | Y | 2.62% |
| Purdue | 4.32 | N | N | N | 43.10% | 46.15% | 10.76% | N | N | N | 89.24% | N |
| Illinois | 3.18 | N | N | N | N | 33.17% | 51.72% | 15.11% | N | N | Y | N |
| Indiana | 0.29 | N | N | N | N | N | N | 0.93% | 27.33% | 71.74% | N | N |
Margin-Aware Summary
| Team | Wins | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Bowl | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 5.62 | N | N | 65.74% | 30.93% | 3.33% | N | N | N | N | Y | 75.96% |
| Penn State | 5.54 |
N | 5.73% | 43.00% | 51.26% | N | N | N | N | N | Y | 22.29% |
| Ohio State | 3.74 | N | N | N | 8.62% | 56.97% | 34.42% | N | N | N | Y | 1.72% |
| Purdue | 4.20 | N | N | N | 35.01% | 50.04% | 14.95% | N | N | N | 85.05% | N |
| Illinois | 3.04 | N | N | N | N | 18.71% | 66.12% | 15.17% | N | N | Y | N |
| Indiana | 0.32 | N | N | N | N | N | N | 0.64% | 30.69% | 68.67% | N | N |
Penn State
Record: 8-2 (5-1)
Ranking: 21st (-7), 27th (no change)
Division record: 3-0 (wins over Indiana, Illinois, Purdue)
Remaining games:
| Opponent | No-Margin Prob | Margin-Aware Prob | Avg Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| @Ohio State | 54.8% |
40.2% | -2.5 |
| @Wisconsin | 40.7% |
14.3% | -12.5 |
Distribution of possible records:
| 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| No-margin | 22.28% | 50.89% | 26.83% |
| Margin-aware | 5.73% | 43.00% | 51.26% |
I have less confidence in these numbers than I do most of the others; I don't think any computer system has a variable for "team just fired the man who has been their head coach since Vietnam amid the worst scandal in college football history".
How they can win the division:
- Beat Wisconsin in the final week, regardless of what happens this weekend (40.68% / 14.26%). They would be the only team at 6-2.
- Beat Ohio State + Wisconsin loses to Illinois (14.98% / 8.03%). Again, they would be alone at 6-2.
Probability of winning the division: 55.66% / 22.29%. The Nebraska game took away most of their margin for error, but Ohio State's loss gives extra hope should Penn State split their last two.
Clinch this week if: they win and Wisconsin loses.
Wisconsin
Record: 8-2 (4-2)
Ranking: 25th (+3), 8th (no change)
Division record: 2-1 (wins over Indiana, Purdue; loss to Ohio State)
Remaining games:
| Opponent | No-Margin Prob | Margin-Aware Prob | Avg Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| @Illinois |
53.9% |
76.7% | +8 |
| Penn State | 59.3% |
85.7% | +12.5 |
Distribution of possible records:
| 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| No-margin | 31.98% | 49.27% | 18.75% |
| Margin-aware | 65.74% | 30.93% | 3.33% |
The shifts in probability here are less because Wisconsin dump-trucked Minnesota (it's news when a good team doesn't) and more because both remaining opponents took a fall this weekend.
How they can win the division:
- Win twice (31.98% / 65.74%). This gives them, at worst, a tie with Penn State and the head-to-head tiebreaker.
- Beat Penn State + Ohio State beats Penn State + Ohio State loses to Michigan (9.74% / 10.22%). Three-way tie would be no good because OSU would hold the head-to-head sweep; even if Purdue joins in, Wisconsin and Ohio State would both be 2-1 and Ohio State would win the remaining two-team tie. This gets them to a two-way tie with Penn State (or possibly a three-way tie with PSU and Purdue), which they win.
Probability of winning the division: 41.72% / 75.96%. They got the help they needed to regain control of their own destiny.
Eliminated this week if: they lose and Penn State wins.
Ohio State
Record: 6-4 (3-3)
Ranking: 43rd (-7), 35th (-3)
Division record: 3-1 (wins over Indiana, Wisconsin, and Illinois; loss to Purdue)
Remaining games:
| Opponent | No-Margin Prob | Margin-Aware Prob | Avg Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State |
45.2% |
59.8% | +2.5 |
| @Michigan |
21.2% |
14.4% | -12 |
Distribution of possible records:
| 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| No-margin | 9.59% | 47.26% | 43.15% |
| Margin-aware | 8.62% | 56.97% | 34.42% |
Losing your easiest remaining game is a good way to knock yourself out of realistic title contention. Still mathematically alive, but they need a fair bit of help.
How they can win the division:
- Win twice + Wisconsin loses to Illinois + Wisconsin beats Penn State (2.62% / 1.72%). This results in a three-way tie which Ohio State claims via head-to-head sweep. (If Purdue joins the tie, Wisconsin and OSU are both 2-1 in the tie, and OSU has the tiebreaker.)
Probability of winning the division: 2.62% / 1.72%. Fighting a serious uphill battle now.
Eliminated this week if: they lose, or Wisconsin wins.
Purdue
Record: 5-5 (3-3)
Rating: 69th (+9), 71st (+5)
Remaining games:
| Opponent | No-Margin Prob | Margin-Aware Prob | Avg Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa |
57.9% |
49.9% | 0 |
| @Indiana |
74.5% |
70.2% | +6 |
Distribution of possible records:
| 5-3* | 4-4* | 3-5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| No-margin | 43.10% | 46.15% | 10.76% |
| Margin-aware | 35.01% | 50.04% | 14.95% |
* = bowl eligible
Purdue took a major step toward bowl eligibility with the win over Ohio State; now they have two chances to get win #6, with one a toss-up and the other having them a significant favorite.
Probability of bowl eligibility: 89.24% / 85.05%
Illinois
Record: 6-4 (2-4)
Rating: 50th (-10), 54th (-11)
Remaining games:
| Opponent | No-Margin Prob | Margin-Aware Prob | Avg Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin |
46.1% |
23.3% | -8 |
| @Minnesota |
72.0% |
80.2% | +9.5 |
Distribution of possible records:
| 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| No-margin | 33.17% | 51.72% | 15.11% |
| Margin-aware | 18.71% | 66.12% | 15.17% |
Getting smoked at home by Michigan put an end to any chance of Illinois sharing the division title, although they already had no chance to win the tiebreakers.
Indiana
Record: 1-9 (0-6)
Rating: 115th (+2), 112th (no change)
Remaining games:
| Opponent | No-Margin Prob | Margin-Aware Prob | Avg Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| @Michigan State |
3.7% |
2.1% | -26 |
| Purdue |
25.5% |
29.8% | -6 |
Distribution of possible records:
| 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No-margin | 0.93% | 27.33% |
71.74% |
| Margin-aware | 0.64% |
30.69% |
68.67% |
Purdue's upset of Ohio State makes the easier of Indiana's two games tougher still. Indiana has not won multiple Big Ten games in a season since 2007, and they're 100:1 or worse to change that this year.
28 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
So you're saying: The Huskers do have a chance!
Good stuff, like always.
My question to all of you Spartans though is the following:
Are you all really going to be pulling for MICHIGAN this coming Saturday?
Doesn’t that go against everything you have been brought up to believe in?
You do know that even a brief, fleeting thought of supporting Michigan by a Spartan, in any form or fashion, will unleash the curse of all curses and turn you immediately into a, oh, the horror, a Vielfrass, for the rest of your life?
I'll be rooting for the proverbial giant meteor to strike Ann Arbor (of course, I root for that EVERY day).
But, it won’t matter what happens in AA if we win out.
"Everyone who drinks is not a poet. Maybe some of us drink because we're not poets." - Arthur Bach
This is simply one of those situations where I'd be gleeful is UM loses (as I always am), and I wouldn't be entirely disappointed if they win
Never do I root for the UM program to succeed, ever. So, yeah, no worries there.
by cwel87 on Nov 14, 2011 9:25 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Won't be rooting for them to win
But we all know that the one time we need them to do anything they will get blasted by 25 at home to a team that can’t pass the ball
ugh
by asmith19 on Nov 14, 2011 9:31 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Taylor Martinez can't pass? What are you talking about? :)
He did have his best passing games against NW and PSU, though it didn’t help against NW and against PSU there were actually several passes that were dropped (hit them right in the hands!).
And I saw today that he has surpassed Turner Gill & Vince Ferregamo at NEB in passing yardage, as a sophomore, and he is improving immensely in his game management skills.
I wouldn't say I'll be rooting for them
so much as rooting against Nebraska. I’m not sure we have grounds to get up on our high horse if a particular team gets blasted by Nebraska. We were that team a couple weeks back.
by TheCrestedHelm on Nov 14, 2011 1:14 PM CST up reply actions
I was hoping for 2-0 myself
Perhaps the UNL long snapper can send one over his punter’s head in the game’s waning moments.
No Problem Rooting for Michigan this week.
We’ll pound IU and then if Michigan wins I’ll send them a post card from Indy and the B1G title game.
Nope
Maybe once. I rooted for them to beat Tebow in old Lloyd’s last game. But Hokype has annoyed those tender feelings right out of me.
Spartans need to carry their own water and win both and too hell with what Michigan does or doesn’t do.
by witless chum on Nov 14, 2011 1:59 PM CST up reply actions
C'Mon guys!!
Don’t even BEND the rule. No rooting for “those guys”. Always for the best situation: We win both our last 2, they lost their last 2, recruits take notice, our DOMINANCE continues and extends. NO WANING!!!
If we NEED a win from them, I'll root for it.
I may feel dirty about it, but if Nebraska hadn’t lost to Northwestern I would absolutely be rooting for Michigan this week. Spite for a rival does not trump what’s best for us.
I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
Technical Question
Is Purdue technically still alive for the championship game?
Suppose:
PSU loses both remaining games (OSU/Wisc)
OSU beats PSU but loses to Michigan
Wisconsin loses to Illinois but beats PSU
Purdue wins out (Iowa/Indiana)
Illinois wins out (Wisc/Minn)
That would create a 3-team tie at 5-3 between PSU, Wisconsin, and Purdue. All three teams would also be tied in the division at 3-2. The next tiebreaker is “The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, and 6) .”
OSU and Illinois would be tied for 4th at 4-4. Purdue is 2-0 against those teams. Wisconsin would be 0-2. PSU would be 1-1. (It works if Ilinois loses to Minnesota, too, since Purdue would be the only team of the three to have beaten OSU.)
Far-fetched (although the Wisconsin-Illinois result is the only really far-fetched individual result), but I think that works. Purdue acquaintance of mine is trying to hold out hope (no pun intended) for a complete late-season ascendance.
by KJ@theonlycolors on Nov 14, 2011 3:03 PM CST reply actions
Tiebreaker #1 is worded poorly, but -
I’ve seen it interpreted as a sort-of expanded head to head, basically considering only games amongst the tied teams:
Wisconsin would be 2-0 (beat Purdue earlier in the year, and PSU in your scenario)
Penn State 1-1 (again, they already beat Purdue and would lose to Wisconsin)
Purdue 0-2 (already lost to both PSU and Wisconsin)
The conference should try and word that one more clearly though, “The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other” is not very clear.
That's how I've interpreted it - head-to-head among the tied teams.
I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
Hmmm
"The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other."
is different than
"The records of the three tied teams against each other will be compared."
I agree it’s very poorly worded—and that it’s very inclusion in the first tie-breaker list is odd—but everything else I’ve read indicates the intent was for division record to be the first tie-breaker.
by KJ@theonlycolors on Nov 15, 2011 8:12 AM CST up reply actions
True, but the wording is consistent with the rest of the tiebreakers.
“The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, and 6)” and “The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents” could be similarly interpreted to mean you’re comparing their records to those of the other teams rather than their records against those other teams.
I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
Good point
And I fully concede I misinterpreted the rules.
by KJ@theonlycolors on Nov 16, 2011 8:23 AM CST up reply actions
Wisconsin would have the head-to-head sweep, wouldn't they?
I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
Yeah, if that is indeed the first tiebreaker
And, after some Twitter inquiry, I’m coming around to that interpretation.
by KJ@theonlycolors on Nov 15, 2011 10:13 AM CST up reply actions
Figuring out who to root for in AA is such a tough choice...
Since (based on a small sample size since joining the BT), the ’Huskers seem to be a program built on institutionalized arrogance that rivals UM.
Tiebreaker #1
I get what you’re saying, and it’s probably fairer to interpret it as a head-to-head measure, but Adam Rittenberg’s take is that the whole idea of the tie breakers is to whittle the number of tied teams to two, and then look at head-to-head if necessary. He writes:
If three or more teams tie atop a division, the following methods will be used in order to determine a champion or reduce the glut to two, where a head-to-head tiebreaker then can be used:
(1) Records of the teams
(2) Records of the three tied teams compared within their division
(3) Records of the teams against the next-highest teams within the division
(4) Records against all common conference opponents
etc….
Notice in (1) he does NOT say “records of the teams against each other”
Now, Rittenberg may be wrong, and the likelihood of this happening is approximately 0.00006723%, but I think it’s still mathematically possible.
That seems impossibly stupid.
If they’re tied, records of the teams can’t break the tie. That’s why it’s a tie.
I realize I’m trying to impart logic into the proceedings of a conference that couldn’t figure out sensible division names, but they can’t possibly write rules that mind-bogglingly stupid, can they?
I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
This.
As dumb as the conference might be, the rule would not say “If the records are tied, look at the records.”
"It was worth it. Every needle, every dose of medicine that I've taken. That's why you play the game. A chance to be on a Final Four team, a chance to win championships." Delvon Roe
by Ducking Delvon on Nov 15, 2011 8:13 AM CST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on The Only Colors
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
