It's Apt to Confuse Me*
by KJ@theonlycolors on Dec 12, 2011 9:24 PM CST
in Michigan State Spartans Basketball
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The script has been performed for so many years, it seems almost inevitable: high preseason expectations turn to a disappointing string of nonconference results, only to be followed by a resilient (if uneven) Big Ten performance and then, more often than not, a deep tournament run.
This Michigan State basketball campaign deviated from the script right from the start. For only the second time in 14 years, MSU entered the season unranked by the pollsters. This was to be a rebuilding year. Like the 2006-07 season, just making the NCAA Tournament would be, if not fully satisfactory, at least acceptable. With only two starters returning and six scholarship players taking the court for MSU for the first time, I, for one, was hoping to just scrape out one quality nonconference win and see if a stable rotation could emerge in time for conference play.
It's gone quite a bit better than that now, hasn't it? The losses against North Carolina and Duke on opposite coasts to start the season were frustrating--but mainly because MSU actually looked capable of pulling out the upset for substantial portions of each game. From there, a series of 20-plus point wins ensued, and the last two weeks have brought a pair of fairly comfortable wins against quality opponents--the most recent of which was earned in front of one of the more raucous crowds college basketball has to offer.
To see just how unusual these results have been, I've compiled data on MSU's pre-conference results over the last 10 seasons ("the KenPom era"), sorted by KenPom rank:
| Record vs. | Average | Record vs. | Average | Record vs. | Average | Record vs. | Average | |
| Season | Top 15 | Margin | 16-60 | Margin | 61-150 | Margin | 150+ | Margin |
| 2002-03 | 1-1 | 1.0 | 0-2 | (5.5) | 3-1 | 9.3 | 4-0 | 22.5 |
| 2003-04 | 0-3 | (11.3) | 1-2 | (2.7) | 1-1 | 9.5 | 3-0 | 10.7 |
| 2004-05 | 0-1 | (7.0) | 0-1 | (13.0) | 3-0 | 14.3 | 5-0 | 37.4 |
| 2005-06 | 0-0 | -- | 3-1 | 6.5 | 1-1 | (10.0) | 8-0 | 19.1 |
| 2006-07 | 0-1 | (2.0) | 2-1 | 3.3 | 5-0 | 19.6 | 6-0 | 21.0 |
| 2007-08 | 1-1 | 0.5 | 2-0 | 5.0 | 4-0 | 10.0 | 5-0 | 28.4 |
| 2008-09 | 0-1 | (35.0) | 2-1 | 0.3 | 3-0 | 13.3 | 4-0 | 30.3 |
| 2009-10 | 0-0 | -- | 1-3 | (4.3) | 2-0 | 21.5 | 7-0 | 23.4 |
| 2010-11 | 0-4 | (8.5) | 1-0 | 5.0 | 2-0 | 5.0 | 5-0 | 26.0 |
| 2011-12 | 0-2 | (8.5) | 2-0 | 11.5 | 1-0 | 13.0 | 5-0 | 28.2 |
Technical notes: Cutoff points for the categories were chosen based on my rock solid subjective judgment of what constitutes (1) scares-the-pants-off-you-, (2) frightening-but-not-keeping-you-up-at-night-, (3) friendly-but-still-quite-losable-, and (4) totally-cupcake-level opponents. Apologies for not using tempo-free numbers, but raw margin of victory is more intuitive and I don't think variation in pace is skewing things much here.
Bulleting through the four categories:
- MSU has only beaten two top-15 nonconference opponents over the last decade: Kentucky in 2002 and Texas in 2007. So the losses to UNC and Duke didn't set this team back relative to its predecessors.
- The wins against Florida State and Gonzaga, meanwhile, represent the best collective performance against the 16-60 category since at least 2005.
- Only one game played against the 61-150 group to date (Lehigh will be a second shot next Thursday), but the team beat Wisconsin-Milwaukee comfortably.
- The five wins against the bottom half of the nation have been as thorough as you could ask for (outside of the first half vs. Central Connecticut). No final margin below 20 points.
Put it all together, and I think it's hard to argue this nonconference performance isn't as good as, if not better than any by a Tom Izzo team since the 2000-01 season, when the team went unbeaten, defeating UNC, Florida, and Seton Hall along the way. (Interestingly, one of the couple of seasons--the other being the 2007-08 season--that matches up well is the 2006-07 season, when the team was similarly unheralded at the start of the year.)
Given all this failure to stick to the script, I hesitate to make any predictions about the rest of the season. But the forecast has definitely improved since the ball was tossed into the air at midcourt on the deck of the USS Carl Vinson. The team ranks 12th in the nation by KenPom's calculations, despite the numbers still partially accounting for the team's lower preseason ranking.
The team's defense is ranked a lofty #8--displaying some un-Izzo-esque top-40 rankings ($) in steal and block percentages. The roster's combination of athleticism and aggressiveness has helped compensate for its relative inexperience--although the team has been pretty darn good across the board defensively, limiting opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 42.5% and an offensive rebounding percentage of 24.5%.
The team's offensive ranking stands at #44. Perhaps the most astonishing aspect of MSU's success to date has been that, to the naked eye, the offensive attack has been just as disjointed as you would have expected. Turnovers have, per usual, been a bugaboo, as the team has posted a 21.6% turnover percentage (only one 25%-plus implosion, though: 28.6% vs. UNC). Eight players have scored in double digits at least once, but only one (Green) has done it in more than half of the team's games (Appling's right at 50%, with 5 in 10 games). Increased team cohesiveness and individual consistency are real possibilities as the calendar turns heading into conference play.
The old script has worked pretty well for Tom Izzo over the last 10 years, but the opening act of this new script has been startlingly enjoyable. Stay tuned to see how the remaining acts play out.
*Context, for those of you who didn't grow up listening to cassette tapes of music from the 1960's and 70's on family road trips.
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Not sure if this turned up in another thread BUT
Se’Von Pittman de-committed and joined Urban Meyer as expected. Just bad news all round for MSU defensive line with Pickleman and Strayhorn out for the bowl game.
Our DE depth is good for now though
Gholston and Rush are both pretty young, and supposedly one of the freshman has been impressive on the scouting team.
Schadenfreude ist die schoenste Freude
Screw Pittman
We are loaded on the D-Line anyway Meyer backed up the O$U brinks truck and that was that. I heard that dumb ass can barley read a book and if his heart was into Ohio then it can stay there.
I, too, wish Pittman a healthy and successful (but not too successful) college career.
I barley have any more thoughts on the matter.
by lesmanalim on Dec 12, 2011 11:07 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
I think...
…you should get oat of here for that, sir or madam.
Seriously, it’s trashy behavior for people on the internet to rip on teenagers because they didn’t go to the college where we have liked them to.
by witless chum on Dec 13, 2011 7:23 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I just think he "hopped" to a conclusion
But I agree with most of the TOC posters that it’s poor form to flame a 17 y/o boy online because he changed his mind about where he wants to go to school. We know nothing about him or his personal situation, so I say let the kid live his life, and if going to tOSU over MSU turns out to be a mistake, it’s HIS mistake to make & learn from.
Now, grown men relentlessly hounding him to change his mind after he made his initial decision this summer to go to MSU? THAT’s another story . . .
by MSUDersh on Dec 13, 2011 12:29 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
The flax are the flax
You really need to take a 17-year-old’s commitment with a grain of malt…
by Lump of Clay on Dec 14, 2011 8:57 AM CST up reply actions
Another reason to hate Ohio State...
…but I won’t rip on Pittman – his life, his decision.
I hope OSU gets nailed to the fucking wall by the NCAA. (which obviously won’t happen because apparently, OSU is not subject to the same rules as the rest of us)
"Everyone who drinks is not a poet. Maybe some of us drink because we're not poets." - Arthur Bach
The defensive proficiency is what heartens me the most about this squad
especially given the number of new contributors. If Izzo has enough confidence to keep a 10 man rotation and spread out some of the minutes, that will do a lot to help keep up the intensity as we slog through the Big Ten schedule.
Green
Is currently leading the team in points per game, rebounds per game, steals per game and assists per game. I’m seriously curious about who the last Spartan to lead all four of those categories was.
He’s also barely behind Payne in blocks per game.
Schadenfreude ist die schoenste Freude
Good start to the season...
Great article. I was happy that coming into the season we were not ranked and I feel better about this team already that I ever did last season. We always seem to do well when we’re not supposed to. Looking forward to keeping this momentum going into the Big Ten season.
One other thing… your 2nd bullet that reads: The wins against Florida State and Gonzaga, meanwhile, represent the best collective performance against the 16-60 category since at least 2005. Shouldn’t that say 2007 rather than 2005? According to the chart provided, we were 2-0 in 2007-2008 against teams ranked 16-60.
Yeah, although those wins were by slimmer margins (by 3 vs. Missouri and 7 vs. BYU).
Was going with 2005, as we beat 3 teams in that category that season (and the loss was in 3OT vs. Gonzaga).
by KJ@theonlycolors on Dec 13, 2011 7:20 AM CST up reply actions
Could you explain "We always seem to do well when we're not supposed to"?
I’ve heard/seen this from many State fans and I just don’t get it. Nobody could’ve predicted Izzo’s career when he first started so that first run was “unexpected”. After that, however, it is not unreasonable to expect the team to do well when the coach displays that kind of ability. And several times since then the team has done well (03, 05, 08-sort of, 09,10). You’re telling me nothing was expected from any of those teams?
02 and 07 were the years which the teams did not have one senior, so expectations were low. If you want to say expectations were low this year, ok. But they’ve already shown that they[re good enough to finish decently in the conference standings and making the tournament should not be a concern to anyone (UNLESS THERE IS A MASSIVE MELT DOWN).
Looking back at 03
That was a bit of a surprise. And it was just 2 years removed from the 3 consecutive final fours.
But by 05 questions began to surface if it was all Izzo would ever do. That team had a hell of a senior class which jumped on board during the Flintstone days. The junior class was stacked too. Add in Shannon Brown…….To say expectations were low for that team is inaccurate.
I’m perplexed when I hear State fans say the team does better when it isn’t expected to do so. I know last year sucked, I know. I get it. Really, I do. But there isn’t much to support the claim that MSU bball excels when the pressure is off because A) It’s a program that is rather high profile now, so doing reasonably well consistently is expected (and should be)………
B) There haven’t been many seasons under Izzo when the team came from out of nowhere to greatly exceed expectations (except for maybe near the beginning; 97-99).
Yep, this team is made from the Izzo fabric
and that alone makes them enjoyable to watch. They have grit and a cohesiveness that helps make them greater than the sum of their parts. They work and they’re gamers and those two things alone will make them dangerous in March. What I like is that they’re not only winning these non-conference cupcake games but they’re doing it in a way that seems they’re in control the whole game. Central Conn was the only game (other than UNC/Duke) that I felt a little uneasy about and actually I never really felt like we were out of those first two. A marked difference from some past teams who seemed to wilt on that big stage and get down by 20 in the first 5 mins only to have to battle and scrap to make it respectable.
Can’t wait to see this team in person next Mon night!
The best thing about it is respect
Michigan State is a program I respect greatly because you have had so much success over the last decade, but you recognize it is earned. This article proves that. Each season is different, and your program recognizes that nothing is given. so many schools fans and programs think that once a certain level of success is achieved it is their right to have that success without earning it again.
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
by BoilerTMill on Dec 13, 2011 7:11 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
You've got a point about entitlement
But I’m a fan that expects MSU bball to be good pretty much every year. Why? Because we have one of the best coaches in the country who has all of the resources to do things the way he feels necessary to win. And more often than not he wins.
That does not mean that I do not recognize the competition. But I think it is reasonable for us to expect good things every year while acknowledging that it will not go our way every single year.
That's the big difference
You expect to be good every year, but you recognize it is earned too against tough competition. There are teams (Notre Dame football, Indiana basketball) that think it is their God-given right to be great regardless of work and others should bow because of it.
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
by BoilerTMill on Dec 13, 2011 10:30 AM CST up reply actions
Yeah, I know what you mean.
When you look at it, everything that MSU has has been earned the old fashion way. From the very beginning. Maybe that’s why we don’t have fans with that attitude (sometimes I think our fanbase is too modest, but hey……).
by Conor Boyle on Dec 13, 2011 10:49 AM CST up reply actions
I would rather be Michigan State than Indiana any day
People respect you.
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
You mean like Michigan football?
"Everyone who drinks is not a poet. Maybe some of us drink because we're not poets." - Arthur Bach
by Spartan D on Dec 13, 2011 10:51 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
When something goes wrong, we're the first to admit it
Excellent song choice for the title, sir. I think the concept in general works well for MSU fans when it comes to our basketball teams of late.
The block and steal numbers are interesting. Last year’s team actually set an MSU record for blocks in a season with 167 (4.91 per game). This year’s team is roughly on pace for a similar result, averaging 4.7 per game. This has been the trend recently, with guys like Naymick, Roe, Green, and Payne getting a lot more blocks. In fact, 4 of the top 5 seasons for team blocks have occurred in the last 5 years. People forget that until a few years ago, Matt Steigenga (a small forward) held the career record for blocks with 97.
The steals, on the other hand, are way up so far. The ‘98-’99 team, probably the apex of “Izzo” defense, with all 4 Flintstones locking guys down, had 298 steals in 38 games (7.84 per game). This year’s team has 88 through 10 games, or 8.8 per game. While that pace may be difficult to keep up (and it would tough to duplicate the 38 games played), I don’t see it dropping off too much either. Appling, Trice, Green, and even Nix seem to be quite good at getting their hands on the ball on D.
"It was worth it. Every needle, every dose of medicine that I've taken. That's why you play the game. A chance to be on a Final Four team, a chance to win championships." Delvon Roe
8.8 spg?
Wow that is a ridiculous number.
I took a look at our team statsheet page, and a number that suprised me is that MSU, even with it’s high turnover rate, has actually gotten the ball back from opponents more than has turned it over, 152 MSU to 161 opponent (or TO% of 21.7% for MSU, to 23% for the other team).
How do our net turnover numbers stack up in the B1G & nationally?
IDK if MSU officially sells them, but there have been some great ones
this ESPN photo gallery has some great pics.
Shockingly, I couldn’t find any for sale on the MSU website, too bad bc I have some expart Spartan friends who would love to hang these on their walls overseas.
This place claims in the header to be the “Official Athletics Site of MSU,” though I’m not 100% sure if that is accurate. But it does have a lot of choices – even canvas wraps like my favorite groupon, Canvas on Demand!
I found this link to the page for Mark Terrill, who is credited with the pic in the column; maybe you can email/call his office for more info. If he doesn’t own the pics outright, they should be able to direct you to whomever now owns the rights to his work from that day.
Welcome back
I knew you couldn’t quit this blog for good. I agree the early returns are much better than expected. The defensive numbers are really encouraging. Luke Winn at Sports Illustrated has looked at defensive efficiency as a predictor of tournament success, and basically you have to be really good defensively to make a deep tourney run.
I’m not ready to predict a deep run at this point, but if we stay in KenPom’s top 10 in defensive efficiency we should win our share of games. Offensively I expect some continuing improvement, as guys get used to their roles and learn the offense better. We are really young and inexperienced at a lot of positions, so we should have some room for growth, though it is hard to see how our defense could get much better.
The B1G has 5 teams in Kenpom’s top 15 – it may be a brutal year in the conference, although the numbers can’t be trusted all that much this early in the season. Two teams that do look for real – Duke and UNC have performed below expectations in terms of wins and losses, but they’ve played absolutely brutal preconference schedules if KenPom’s stats can be trusted this early on.
Loves Me Like a Rock is the best song on that album, IMO.
by TheCrestedHelm on Dec 13, 2011 11:44 AM CST reply actions
Agree with pretty much all of this
KJ. I’ve missed you.
Also, I agree we need some offensive consistency and improvement. Appling needs to start scoring 12 a game or so every night, I recall some people talking about the fact that Stockton was taunting Appling for being an All American with only 4 points at the time. Stockton has no right to trash talk, he walked on at this hall of famer dad’s university, it’s basically like when MJs kid was on Illinois. BUT there is validity to the fact that Keith set scoring records in high school, was a member of the US National Team this summer and should frankly be finishing more, although I recognize his improvement managing the game.
I think our biggest thing is going to be consistent contributions, it’s nice having a different player step up each game, but I feel like offensively too many people have disappeared in different games. Dawson is clearly hurt or having some sort of issue, Payne and Nix tend to alternate in who shows up, but I love their D and the way they’ve been developing, Byrd has frankly been useless. Perhaps its the foot injury, mixed with some clear confidence issues, but come on kid you got recruited by MSU to shoot threes, have a little swagger instead of airballing nearly every one because he’s shaking out of nervousness. I still think Byrd is a huge key to success this year, if he starts stroking it and playing solid D in something like 12-15 minutes the offense clicks much better, we have a viable perimeter threat who can be passed to by Trice or Appling (our other 3 guys) and Green and do work down low more often. Plus it gets AT out of the rotation. Of course the KenPom stats say our Offense is fine, but statistics sometimes don’t tell the whole story.
I've been relatively pleased with Appling so far
He’s learning a new position, so I think some inconsistency is expected. I like the fact that he didn’t try to force things too much in the last game – he knew Green was the go-to guy and he went to him often rather than taking Stockton’s bait and trying to do too much to prove a point. Plus, he’s a really good defender, and still fairly young. He’s had some offensive outbursts already – with more experience at the point I think he’ll score a little more consistently.
As for the other folks, Nix finally seems to be coming into his own. I don’t think he’ll ever be entirely consistent offensively – he seems to have games where he just can’t hit an uncontested layup – but his defense has come along nicely and on those off nights I think he, too, is being a little more patient and not forcing things.
Payne is still young and developing but his improvement over last year is pretty evident. I’m hoping Dawson will start playing a little more like he did against UNC before he tweaked his knee at some point in the near future – that spot, be it him or Byrd, has been kind of a non-factor in a lot of games. On the other hand Trice is playing great – much better than we had any right to expect.
by TheCrestedHelm on Dec 14, 2011 12:24 PM CST up reply actions
byrd
Sorry Loney, your delusional if you think byrd is going to contribute. The guy blows, and I think people have the wrong expectations for Dawson this season. Just because he came out big to start, against smaller teams, people thought he was gonna be 15 and 10 a night. The reality is yes, he is going to do that some nights, when the match up is good, against teams that are a little smaller because this will allow him to get those easy put backs he loves. However, it is clear that at least early on in his career he is going to have quite a few games in which he struggles. He is Raymar Morgan but with any development he will be much better. If Dawson allows the coaching staff to develop him he will start to put up the numbers he had at the beginning of the season much more consistently. It would be nice if we could see some signs of that soon though. Great start to the season so far though, Appling is starting to develop nicely at the point, he is almost unstoppable when he is in the open court though, would be nice to utilize that more often if Trice plays better more consistently.
Byrd
He’s a scholarship player, I think you’re underestimating his talents. He is still recovering from a few foot surgeries and he will improve. I mean, look at Kalin last year coming back from injury, he was not anywhere near the player that he was before injury when the season first began. Then as it went on, he got more and more comfortable, and by the end of the season he was pretty close to being back. Now I know Byrd is not Kalin by any means, and it has taken him a while to get into any sort of rhythm (still waiting), but this is his freshman season, as he wasn’t really even able to practice last year. He spent 18 months away from the game, I think he will eventually improve into a contributor, it just may not be this year.
18 months away from competitve basketball - exactly
I’d cut Byrd some slack!
"And how much are intangibles worth? 10%? 20%?" - kj@theonlycolors
No kidding
And just because he isn’t ready to contribute much now as far as playing doesn’t mean he won’t in the future. It wouldn’t hurt to be a little nicer to our players, either.
by witless chum on Dec 15, 2011 8:00 AM CST up reply actions
I agree Byrd deserves some slack given the injury situation
I like Dawson too, and am not expecting him to be all that consistent as a freshman. Calling him Raymar Morgan at this point is an insult to Raymar – Dawson is no where near the player Morgan was by his junior and senior year. With improvement he could be as good or better, but right now he’s maybe on par with the freshman version of Raymar Morgan – certainly not the guy who graduated.
by TheCrestedHelm on Dec 16, 2011 11:30 AM CST up reply actions
First half of his sophomore season
before he got sick with mono, Raymar was off the charts good – I believe Dickie V rated him a first team mid season All American that year.
If Dawson erupts like that this season, watch out, this team could go really far.
Jon Deibler shot 28% from 3 point land his freshmen year
his sophomore year he jumped to 41, then 42, then 50% as a senior. Little early to be giving up on the kid.
byrd
was speaking more in terms of him contributing this year, not at all ruling out him contributing in future, should have clarified that. The reason I believe this is sooner or later he is going to get phased out of the rotation and miss his opportunities.
KJ - I had hoped that you would return to your roots
I like this team, no prima donnas and it looks like they have one leader in Day-Day. This year is partly sunny/cloudy, although I think we will compete.
One very positive trend
This team has gotten out of the gate much quicker than recent teams and that has been extremely beneficial. Over the last several years, in a substantial number of games, we’d hit the first time out with 6 or fewer points. This year we are starting well and not getting in holes that we need to spend enormous energy to overcome. If that sort of consistency continues, we should be competitive in every game.
Good to read your musings, K.J.
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