Unsung hero, at last
by KJ@theonlycolors on Dec 30, 2011 12:50 PM CST
in Michigan State Spartans Basketball
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PrintThe list of things that have gone right for Michigan State so far this basketball season is a long one (look at ALL THAT GREEN). Nearly every player in the rotation has met, if not exceeded expectations, and received corresponding praise by the media and fanbase. Perhaps overlooked in the early success have been the contributions of one Austin Thornton.
Over the last couple years, I've been skeptical about Thornton's potential to be a regular positive factor on the court (despite my wife's affection for him, and walk-ons generally). While no one could question Thornton's effort level, his proclivity to turn the ball over on offense and foul excessively on defense, to me, signaled a fundamental problem in terms of matching up physically with good Division 1 competition. On top of that, he's never been able to show any of the shooting ability that defined his (very, very good) high school career.
So, entering his fifth season in the MSU program, I expected that, if anything, his playing time would decrease, as players like Russell Byrd and Brandan Kearney emerged as alternatives off the bench. To the contrary, however, Thornton has earned a regular spot in the rotation as one of the first options off the bench, playing between 12 and 24 minutes in every game but one (the Florida State game).
A look at Thornton's major tempo-free indicators over the last three seasons is after the jump.
| 2009-10 | 2010-11 | 2011-12 | |
| Minute % | 13.1 | 27.3 | 42.1 |
| Offensive Rating | 83.7 | 92.8 | 107.9 |
| Possession % | 14.7 | 14.3 | 14.2 |
| 2-Point % | 38.7 | 45.0 | 42.1 |
| 3-Point % | 20.0 | 19.4 | 22.2 |
| Free Throw Rate | 9.8 | 21.1 | 81.1 |
| Free Throw % | 100.0 | 93.3 | 86.7 |
| Assist Rate | 8.8 | 11.5 | 11.9 |
| Turnover % | 27.1 | 23.4 | 22.2 |
| Off Reb % | 8.6 | 9.0 | 6.8 |
| Def Reb % | 12.3 | 13.0 | 16.3 |
| Steal % | 0.9 | 0.8 | 2.7 |
| Fouls Created/40 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 3.2 |
Thornton remains a limited part of the offense, but he's been much more efficient with the possessions he does consume. This hasn't been a function of improved field goal shooting (although those numbers have improved of late--he's shot 4-8 from beyond the arc over the last 7 games). Rather, he's found ways to take advantage of his stellar free throw shooting ability, getting to the line at a higher rate than anyone else on the team (just ahead of Adreian Payne). Meanwhile, his ball-handling numbers haven't been stellar, but they've been acceptable.
The frequency with which he gets fouled is almost certain to decline in Big Ten play--a number of the fouls to date have been in loose ball situations where Thornton just beat his man to the ball. And he's only scored a total of 2 points in MSU's 5 games vs. quality opponents. But, overall, Thornton is making some strides on offense.
It's on defense where the improvement has really been sizable. Thornton has managed to do two things that are normally at odds with one another--dramatically increasing his steal rate while dramatically reducing the frequency with which he fouls. (And that's not just a function of weaker nonconference opponents--he has 4 steals and 4 fouls in the 5 games vs. quality opponents.) Plus he's bumped his already impressive defensive rebounding numbers up a bit.
In short, Thornton has been able to position himself in the role traditionally reserved for walk-ons at MSU: defensive stopper (Tim Bograkos, Matt Trannon, Mike Kebler). And he's showing versatility in that role. Wednesday night, Tom Izzo put him in the 4 spot for several key possessions in the second half, and he held an otherwise very hot Christian Watford scoreless.
It's been a long road to get here, but the preferred walk-on spot Izzo gave to Thornton four-plus years ago--and the work Thornton has put in over that time to improve his game--is paying significant dividends now.
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THIS TIMES A MILLION.
I was remarkably close to writing a FanPost dedicated to this very topic, but KJ did so much more effectively than I could’ve.
Thornton gets more flak than any other Spartan and a large part of it is undeserved. Sure he turns the ball over and he’s certain to look goofy/uncoordinated on a few possessions. But everyone ignores what he provides this team (great defensive rebounding, solid defense recently, and a low not-inefficient usage rate).
I look at this way — he’s the Ryan Raburn of the Michigan State Spartans. For whatever reason, people have made up their mind that they really dislike his game and even though he continues to provide contributing value, people ignore it and focus on what their eyes tell them — that he’s unathletic/uncoordinated/undeserving.
So thanks for this KJ. Hopefully it goes a ways in changing the AT Atmosphere.
by The Birchman on Dec 30, 2011 1:16 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
The difference between the bellyaching about Raburn is that there's a marketplace of replacements to consider.
Austin Thornton can’t be traded, nor can MSU just pick up a free agent to replace him. Those who want to move Thornton to the end of the bench have to make the case that his minutes are better filled by either Byrd or Kearney, or that MSU should essentially use a 7-man rotation.
The comparison was more...
… Because of the way he LOOKS when he plays and the number of bumbling, laughable mistakes he’s made, people tend to immediately ignore his positive contributions by assuming that he’s ONLY good for goofiness.
Does that kinda make sense?
by The Birchman on Dec 30, 2011 1:28 PM CST up reply actions
So true...
It’s to the point that I’ve heard people call AT’s shots “lucky” the same way they call some of Raburn’s catches “lucky.” Both AT and Raburn have shot/caught hundreds of thousands of balls in their lifetime, give them some credit when it’s due.
by Gran-the-Man on Dec 31, 2011 9:13 AM CST up reply actions
I agree
I never understood the bashing he gets every game. Thornton probably would have been better suited to play at a MAC school or something but instead he chose to forgo mutliple scholarships offers to play at MSU because he wants to be here. He works hard, he hits shots once in a while and he’s a pest on defense. Is he the best defender we’ve had? No. He’s not really the best at anything, and I do wish that Byrd or Kearney would step up and take some minutes, but I give AT a lot of respect for his effort. This year he’s actually been effective as well, and I feel like he’s probably a leader seeing how he’s the only senior aside from Green (Wood doesn’t count). I always hope that someday we’ll have a game where AT scores 25 and shuts up his haters (that won’t happen but I’d love it if it did).
And lo, the commentariat did explode.
But I agree – people tend to lock in on AT’s high turnover percentage while completely disregarding his quieter contributions.
Unsung yes, but . .
HERO???
He hasn’t won us a game with his D or his O. He’s been a better contributor this year (to my surprise). He hasn’t hurt us, he’s provided service, done what he’s been asked. My fear is that he’s shown a pattern of taking his past non-failures and propelled himself into a larger role which has always resulted in his downfall (thru turnovers, bad shooting and playing D without moving his feet). Remember the opening 2 games of the year? He didn’t look good at all.
If he understands his role, doesn’t try to enlarge it, and just plays the game we need him to play, he can help us. If he tries for more, we’re in trouble.
Whether he's "won" a game is immeasurable in a team sport.
Besides, that’s hardly the standard I would apply to the 8th man.
so then,
what is your standard of HERO? My point is that is a pretty strong word. Not the one I would use when I consider AT’s contributions. That’s all.
Okay, I'll go for unsung role player.
Although there was the time AT slayed that hydra.
by lesmanalim on Dec 30, 2011 2:36 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Well I think the point was that AT does a good job at what he's supposed to
By your definition no he’s not a hero. But KJ’s point is that AT is actually an effective player in some respects.
not disagreeing
Most important, in my opinion, is that he plays HIS role going forward. If his play complements the others, I can foresee a lot of positives for our team.
He can help another step up and be the hero, by getting a key rebound, feeding the ball to the open person, taking the necessary foul or playing decent defense. That’s his role. The past 10 games or so, he’s done it well.
The guys can play
and I’m not disregarding that. The thing that puzzles me is when we have key game situations and he’s in there turning the ball over getting a ton of minutes while our McD’s all american (who needs as much experience as he can get) rides the pine. I like Thornton, but he’s a walk on getting more minutes than what seems appropriate when we need to groom our up and coming scholarship talent.
But at some point
It’s about actually winning the game. There IS a reason he plays.
He’s a very good defensive rebounder and better defender as of late. He saves possessions and gets them back. He doesn’t use very many either, which means he tends to net positive.
Just because he’s a walk-on and doesn’t have explosive scoring ability, doesn’t mean that the key minutes he’s getting are being wasted. Izzo’s a very bright coach, he knows what he’s doing.
by The Birchman on Dec 30, 2011 1:35 PM CST up reply actions
I hear ya
And everyone else who says similar things. I just wonder if Izzo has taken a personal interest in Thornton because he’s a phenomenal “practice” player, but that something mental is just holding him back in games. I agree with all the points you make, but it seems like BK or Byrd could match a lot of that but just aren’t really even getting the same opportunities.
by StickyGreen on Dec 30, 2011 1:49 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
::Shrug::
It depends on what you’re looking for though. Byrd has really demonstrated no ability to shoot the ball efficiently and he’s much more of a liability on defense than AT is.
And BK is kind of a toss-up — I don’t know that I’ve seen enough of him to know WHY he’s not playing, but there’s gotta be a good one. Maybe defense/rebounding?
by The Birchman on Dec 30, 2011 1:55 PM CST up reply actions
Its size
kids got a great handle and can get to the rim but he simply can’t muscle it out with big time competition. AT can.
BK and Byrd
BK is just not in the physical condition to be a consistent contributor right now. Seriously, he’s close to 25 pounds underweight.
Byrd has missed what equates to light years in bball. About a month ago he began practicing full time for the first time since he graduated high school two years ago.
The team is doing much MUCH better than most people predicted. Whether people like it or not, Austin has contributed to that. If Izzo feels we’re better off with Austin on the floor rather than BK, Byrd, or anyone else…I think he knows what he’s doing.
I'm not disagreeing with Izzo
And never said he doesn’t know what he’s doing. Guess I’m just not on the AT train as much as you all.
Until Byrd or Kearney
play as well and effectively as he does there’s no choice but to play him. I support Izzo in his decision to play AT simply because he shoots better than Byrd so far and Kearney doesn’t make any sort of impact. At least with AT we know he’ll get us a couple extra possessions through steals and rebounding.
Got no beef with Thorton
but he just doesn’t pass the eye test. He is complete and utter non-factor on his best day and a liability on others. When I think of past walk-ons I think of less than exceptional ball players that play successfully with aggressiveness and passion. While I have no doubt Thorton tries/wants to be that guy, it translates on the court to awkward shots, turnovers and fouls.
I think the only thing that is unfair is that people think he has more of a negative impact than he actually does. Warm body that does not do much to help or hurt the team on the court.
Doesn't pass the eye test?
Get some glasses. I trust Tom Izzo’s eyes more than yours and the way he sees it-Thornton has a spot in the rotation.
For years now Izzo has won a hell of lot more than he has lost. He knows how to determine if a player is a liability or a non-factor. Evidently he would disagree with your assessment of Thornton.
Exactly.
The “Eye Test” is terribly subjective. And when it comes to something that’s THAT subjective, I’ll side with the guy who’s been to a few Final Fours and has a Championship ring to show for it.
Plus, the eye test doesn’t align with the numbers posted above. I’m guessing that was KJ’s point entirely — he may not look great doing it, but the numbers seem to paint a pretty positive picture of what AT brings to the table.
by The Birchman on Dec 30, 2011 1:58 PM CST up reply actions
First off Thorntons been on scholarship for two years
And he was actually recruited unlike other successful walk-ons. So that obviously means that Izzo has seen something in him for a while. I think the fact that we’ve seen AT for a few years now means we get fed up with him. If Kebler and his roles were switched we’d be bagging on Kebler and hailing AT as a great story. Both work(ed) hard, and both are/were solid role players. Thornton IS that guy and as of late he’s really stepped up in terms of limiting mistakes. Some of it’s mental, and now I think he’s used to getting big minutes and being under a lot of scrutiny.
Count me among the former Thornton detractors
and I am here to eat some crow. He looked terrible to start the year and I was among those who clamored for Kearney and Byrd to take his minutes. While I’d still like to see those two get more experience (neither played against Indiana), Thornton has definitely proven himself worthy of the 15-20 min a game he gets.
Obviously this is all based on his current form. A return to the 20 min, 3 reb, 3 turnover, 0-3 shooting days of the past would certainly change things, but for some reason it feels like this isn’t a fluke. For the umpteen billionth time Tom Izzo has proven himself smarter than me at basketball. You win this round Tom.
by steinfi2 on Dec 30, 2011 1:58 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
You'll find he wins most rounds.
What with all the Final Fours he’s been to.
by The Birchman on Dec 30, 2011 2:01 PM CST up reply actions
Im sure you and Tom will meet again
in a couple years when Keenan Wetzel or one of the new walk ons is getting minutes lol
Co-signed on all counts.
I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
Another thing
In all seriousness, can someone who feels Austin is a detriment to our success cite an example of us losing a game we should have won due to his presence on the floor?
It's not like that
It’s that we’ve got a lot of young talent that isn’t seeing minutes, and Austin is seeing a heck of a lot. He’s not a detriment now, sure, but was he last year and the year before? How did he get better? By getting playing time. How are the other guys going to get better? same way.
Do you really think he was the problem last year?
Really? He played last year more than he should have, in a bigger role than this season, because circumstances beyond his control dictated it. Sure his ability is not up to the others. But if people really don’t understand that ability is not everything in college sports, well…I don’t know what else to say.
You can also hurt a player’s development by putting him out there when he is not ready physically or mentally. There are a myriad of possible reasons for guys with more ability to have to sit right now while Austin plays. Really, there are.
Yeah Kearney getting beat up won't help him
And part of the reason I think Byrd isn’t seeing minutes is because he airballs more shots than he makes. What does that do to ones confidence? Not good things I’ll tell you that.
AT is a 5th year senior.
I would hope that (as those stats upstairs show) he has grown into his role. BK and Byrd will be here for a few more years. They’ll get their chances (and will more than likely be a larger part of the offense that AT is now). No need to rush things.
Remember a large part of our problem last year (and the 2 years before that if that is possible on btb FF teams) was chemistry. These guys seem to genuinely like each other and work hard to “prove” they belong on the floor. Maybe a pwo, getting their minutes will inspire BK and Byrd to realize what hard work can bring.
I have a love/hate relationship with AT
I think he works extremely hard and embodies much of what it means to be a Spartan and I love that. I don’t think he makes a ton of mistakes or at least more than most others but they do sometimes seem to standout for whatever reason. The hate part (which is way too strong a word for this purpose but…) is that I think he’s playing at his ceiling and just doesn’t have the athleticism to do some of the things we want our players to do. It doesn’t show up often but when it does, like a breakaway layup getting pinned, it becomes glaringly obvious. Sometimes he can’t finish or is just the tiniest bit slower and it’s frustrating that we have a player like that on the floor. I think Kebler was a guy who had the athleticism but not the bball skills, AT is the opposite. That’s’ why we want the horses in there instead, BK and presumably Byrd. If you’ve ever played with these kinds of athletes, and I did a little bit when I was at MSU, it’s ridiculous how even the smallest difference in quickness/strenght/athleticism becomes magnified in live play. I remember playing a pickup game with Kirk Manns who was the slow shooting guard on the team and thinking how friggin’ fast he was against us schlepps. Just amazing.
All that said, he has proven some real worth at times and I’m guessing the intangibles are large as well. And if Izzo believes in him and plays him then that’s good enough for me, even though I will wonder aloud nearly every time he makes or fails to make a play that I think a better athlete makes.
Really?
IMO Kebler had that lateral quickness on D that made him a better defender. Maybe stronger but I’m not sure I’d agree on that one either.
by Drew Perkins on Dec 30, 2011 5:27 PM CST up reply actions
half empty/half full
Two different discussions need to be distinguished in the posts above. one is whether AT has improved this year, relative to past years. This strikes me as undisputable. Did he even make a single three point shot last year? I suspect he has already had twice as many foul shots as he had all last year. The second is about how useful he is to the team. Here, with all due respects to KJ, I think the jury is still out. He is no longer the utter defensive liability he was in previous years, but I certainly would not put him in the class of previous walk ons, like Trannon or Kebler, who became defensive stoppers. He is becoming a respectable shooter, and I trust Izzo that his current upside is higher than either Byrd’s or BK (Izzo has never played people based on their potential — at MSU, you earn your minutes). Nonetheless, AT is a classic tweener, who is too slow to play in the back court, or on the wings, yet not strong enough or bulky enough to play under the basket. If he was an amazing shooter, his offense might compensate, but this has not been the case, at least so far, and I don’t see why he would suddenly improve. My sense is the fact that he gets playing time simply reflects a team weakness, even if the “walk on gets to play” story is always nice. If AT is still getting 15 minutes a game at the end of the season, it will mean that Byrd and BK have not progressed, and this team will be the weaker for it.
I think we'll see him get 12-15 minutes
in many games even if they improve. Here’s hoping they do. Obviously if someone’s better they should play but I think Byrd and Kearney’s time will come next year.
He seems to be passing the table test
In the first couple games he was bringing nothing to the table(no poise, no leadership), while taking a lot off of the table(airballs, turnovers, poor defense). Then the UALR game happened and he was the best player on the floor that day and passable ever since.
I can live with AT in the rotation if he’s going to be a pest getting to loose balls and under skin. He obviously knows the playbook very well and he’s Coach Izzo’s comforter.
All that being said, I’m not convinced that BK can’t do what he does.
PS If you’re still monitoring the comments KJ, I’m dying to know Nix’s usage rate this season. I don’t have a kenpom sub.
Thanks for the post.
"The $hi+'s chess it ain't checkers!"
Also
You can get it from Statsheet.com if you don’t want to pay: http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/player/michigan-state/2-derrick-nix
That is awesome
I didn’t know all of that info was on statsheet.
"The $hi+'s chess it ain't checkers!"
Right now, I like him
I’ve said it before & will say it again, AT is good at two things – aggressively going after long rebounds, and free throws. Like Spartyball above said, in the UALR, we saw that come out, a part of his game that had been hidden since high school (apparently).
As long as he keeps the turnovers & jump shots to a minimum, and brings the effort on loose balls he’s shown the last several games, I’m fine with him as a 12-15 mpg wing sub. I think the overal benefit that he brings exceeds what BK or Byrd would right now. This season is now in full “win now” mode, so I’m cool with him staying in the rotation if he plays this exact same type of game.
I am have to root for AT
Izzo puts him on the floor to contribute to the teams success. He shoots FTs well, he now knows where he should be on the floor (floor balance offensively, not losing his man defensively), he has tenacity in trying for rebounds, and spot up shooting has improved somewhat.
He does not have a basketball body and the offense usually stalls when the ball is received by him. He has the shortest arms for a player his size. He does not have the length to contend for more boards or to contest shots. There is nothing dynamic. When the ball is passed to him, the defense is let off the hook and it is time to reset.
Byrd and BK and BD need time to fail a bit. Byrd and BK must not be showing it in practice. BD needs to be on the floor in crunch time.
I wish nothing but the best for AT but his time on the floor creates a ceiling for our Spartans.
April Fools Day Post Right?
I know this it’s a couple months away, but the article is intended to be a joke right? Hero and AT spoken in the same sentence?
I have watched every game this year, with the exception of 1, and have been a huge fan of MSU basketball for 16 years, barely missing any game.
AT is the WORST, in the rotation, player that has ever worn an MSU jersey. By far. When he is on the court, the other team has a power play—a 5 on 4 opportunity for what seems like 20 minutes a game. He is a defensive liability. He is a horrible ball handler, passer, and shooter. Just watch his teammates on offense, they don’t even want to pass to him, because it will result in some sort of turnover. It’s painful to watch him try to rebound, flopping around into other players (some people call that ‘hustle,’ but it’s a lack of ability).
I’m sure he’s a real nice guy, but an MSU b-ball player he is not.
Yeah I'm closer to this than KJ's opinion here
The good thing is, he’s gone from a black hole to mostly not noticeable when he’s on the floor. Which is a step in the right direction.
It's this strange hatred that bothers me.
You’ve gone ahead and made up your mind and are kinda ignoring the point of this post.
Your eyes are telling you a different story than the numbers posted above. He’s a very solid rebounder (you consider that flopping? Seriously?), he’s playing solid defense and his steal rate is proof of that, and — though he’s a limited offensive player — he knows this and doesn’t use very many possessions as a result.
I promise you he’s not the worst rotation player of the Izzo era. This is just a case of refusing to believe that your original impression may have been incorrect, I feel.
by The Birchman on Dec 31, 2011 1:47 PM CST up reply actions
I take it all back
AT has been the man in this game. I’d talk more but my mouth is full of crow. Happy new year!!
by StickyGreen on Dec 31, 2011 4:00 PM CST via mobile reply actions
KJ's timing was just a hair off on this one
Or perhaps, spot on, because Thorton finally had his first moment as a hero on the court in my opinion – the three he nailed to make it 62-55 with a little over three minutes to go.
At that point, UNL had gotten two straight baskets & was getting momentum back. AT got the ball on the wing and confidently went up with it. The lead never got any closer, and the game was all but sealed at that point.
Absolutely his finest moment in a Spartan uniform. I have to say I’m still bearish on AT, but if he can continue to perform offensively at even 70% of the level we saw yesterday, he’ll leave on a positive note and hopefully leave this team with at least another Final Four.
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