FanPost

Who Are the Best Decision Makers in the Big Ten?

[I haven't had time to digest this. But when Mike Rogers crunches a bunch of numbers, they get bumped. -KJ]

One of the better basketball blogs I've started following -- "better" is contingent on the fact that you enjoy some heavy math and basketball nerdery -- is the Basketball Distribution blog penned by Nathan Walker. I'm not an NBA fan, but he dabbles in college data as well.

Today he posted something he calls Offensive Decision Percentage (OD%). Looking it over, it seemed simple enough and I figured that with some spare time today, I'd throw this together for the Big Ten. I used the College Basketball section of the Sports Reference empire to grab the raw stats for every player in the Big Ten. Plug-and-chug and away we go.

Firstly, this data is for the entire season. Secondly, I imposed a minimum of 350 minutes played (average from all of the players is around 366 minutes this year, so 350 seemed like a decent cut off). Below are your top 15 "decision makers" in the Big Ten this year.

Rk Player Tm Class Pos OD%
1 Lewis Jackson PUR JR G 0.616
2 Ryne Smith PUR JR G 0.608
3 Bill Cole ILL SR F 0.608
4 Aaron Craft OSU FR G 0.602
5 Darius Morris MICH SO G 0.600
6 Jordan Taylor WIS JR G 0.596
7 Josh Gasser WIS FR G 0.594
8 Jon Diebler OSU SR W 0.587
9 Jordan Hulls IND SO G 0.586
10 Demetri McCamey ILL SR G 0.583
11 Jared Sullinger OSU FR F 0.580
12 Tim Frazier PSU SO G 0.575
13 Jeff Brooks PSU SR F 0.571
14 Luka Mirkovic NW JR F 0.568
15 John Shurna NW JR F 0.567

 

Nary a Spartan in sight. In fact, 16th and 17th on the list are also Wildcats in Alex Marcofullio and Michael Thompson. As you can see, it's pretty guard-heavy, which one would expect.

Now, your MSU Spartans on the list, with the same 350 minute stipulation.

 

Rk Player Tm Class Pos OD%
1 Draymond Green MSU JR W 0.537
2 Delvon Roe MSU JR F 0.517
3 Kalin Lucas MSU SR G 0.515
4 Korie Lucious MSU JR G 0.487
5 Keith Appling MSU FR G 0.463
6 Durrell Summers MSU SR W 0.405

 

 

Draymond I'd expect to see atop the list (or near it), but I wouldn't peg Delvon Roe as being (marginally) in second place.

Now, this is all great and whatnot, but we don't have a baseline yet. Well, instead of just having the straight-average OD%, I calculated the average for each position I used -- Forwards, Guards, Wings which, again, were categorized based on player's height. I only did this because after I grabbed all the data, I realized I was skipping over the listed position on the Sports-Reference page.

Armed with this, I came up with OD+, which is Adjusted Offensive Decision Percentage. It's adjusted for the positional average -- can we really hold forwards and guards to the same 'decision making' standards? I don't think so -- and puts it on a scale where 100 is the average and each point above/below that is equal to 1% better than average.

Using that, here are the top 10 guards.

 

Rk Player Tm Class Pos OD% OD+
1 Lewis Jackson PUR JR G 0.616 116
2 Ryne Smith PUR JR G 0.608 115
3 Aaron Craft OSU FR G 0.602 114
4 Darius Morris MICH SO G 0.600 113
5 Jordan Taylor WIS JR G 0.596 113
6 Josh Gasser WIS FR G 0.594 112
7 Jordan Hulls IND SO G 0.586 111
8 Demetri McCamey ILL SR G 0.583 110
9 Tim Frazier PSU SO G 0.575 109
10 Alex Marcotullio NW SO G 0.560 106

 

Again, nary a Spartan in sight. Purdue's well represented as are the Badgers. Not surprising. Darius Morris shines for the Wolverines. He ranked well in PORPAG I posted yesterday and this might help explain that to a degree.

The Wings:

Rk Player Tm Class Pos OD% OD+
1 Jon Diebler OSU SR W 0.587 121
2 David Lighty OSU SR W 0.549 114
3 Tim Jarmusz WIS SR W 0.546 113
4 Jeremiah Rivers IND SR W 0.542 112
5 Draymond Green MSU JR W 0.537 111
6 William Buford OSU JR W 0.524 108
7 D.J. Byrd PUR SO W 0.517 107
8 Jereme Richmond ILL FR W 0.517 107
9 Kelsey Barlow PUR SO W 0.513 106
10 Mike Bruesewitz WIS SO W 0.513 106

 

And now Ohio State joins Purdue as teams with multiple guys in the top ten. Diebler -- who I'm 90% sure came in the same recruiting class as Scoonie Penn and Michael Redd -- has a sizable lead on teammate David Lighty. You had to know Draymond would rate in the top five or so in this metric for his position.

And, finally, the forwards:

 

Rk Player Tm Class Pos OD% OD+
1 Bill Cole ILL SR F 0.608 118
2 Jared Sullinger OSU FR F 0.580 113
3 Jeff Brooks PSU SR F 0.571 111
4 Luka Mirkovic NW JR F 0.568 110
5 John Shurna NW JR F 0.567 110
6 Dallas Lauderdale OSU SR F 0.551 107
7 Mike Davis ILL SR F 0.541 105
8 Trevor Mbakwe MINN JR F 0.534 104
9 Jordan Morgan MICH FR F 0.532 103
10 JaJuan Johnson PUR SR F 0.529 103

 

A couple Wildcats, Illini, Buckeyes, and no Spartans. Did you know that Bill Cole has a 50% minute percentage for Illinois and leads the entire nation (scroll down to 'all players) in Offensive Rating? Me neither. He's got the third best turnover rate in the country at 7.7% draws one more foul than he commits per 40 minutes, and has a 66.4 true shooting percentage and 64.8 effective field goal percentage. He's been a beast for Illinois.

Now, the top 20 in all positions, sorted by OD+:

 

Rk Player Tm Class Pos OD% OD+
1 Jon Diebler OSU SR W 0.587 121
2 Bill Cole ILL SR F 0.608 118
3 Lewis Jackson PUR JR G 0.616 116
4 Ryne Smith PUR JR G 0.608 115
5 Aaron Craft OSU FR G 0.602 114
6 David Lighty OSU SR W 0.549 114
7 Darius Morris MICH SO G 0.600 113
8 Tim Jarmusz WIS SR W 0.546 113
9 Jordan Taylor WIS JR G 0.596 113
10 Jared Sullinger OSU FR F 0.580 113
11 Josh Gasser WIS FR G 0.594 112
12 Jeremiah Rivers IND SR W 0.542 112
13 Draymond Green MSU JR W 0.537 111
14 Jeff Brooks PSU SR F 0.571 111
15 Jordan Hulls IND SO G 0.586 111
16 Demetri McCamey ILL SR G 0.583 110
17 Luka Mirkovic NW JR F 0.568 110
18 John Shurna NW JR F 0.567 110
19 Tim Frazier PSU SO G 0.575 109
20 William Buford OSU JR W 0.524 108

 

Depressed enough between this list and the PORPAG numbers and, well, witnessing the games on television (or in person) yet? At least Draymond's there.

All Spartans, minimum of 100 minutes (to include guys like Nix and Sherman).

 

 

Player Tm Class Pos OD% OD+
Draymond Green MSU JR W 0.537 111
Mike Kebler MSU SR G 0.561 106
Garrick Sherman MSU SO F 0.541 105
Delvon Roe MSU JR F 0.517 100
Austin Thornton MSU JR W 0.477 99
Derrick Nix MSU SO F 0.504 98
Kalin Lucas MSU SR G 0.515 97
Korie Lucious MSU JR G 0.487 92
Keith Appling MSU FR G 0.463 87
Durrell Summers MSU SR W 0.405 84
Adreian Payne MSU FR F 0.390 76

 

Another huge cliff from Draymond to anyone else in a metric. I'd like Lucas to rate better than he does. I was kind of shocked he is below-average. Considering the season, though, I guess it's not too surprising. Appling and Summers really haven't been good -- not shocked given the relative lack of assists that Summers dishes out.

In case you were interested, here's the baseline OD% I got for each position:

F - .515
G - .529
W - .483

Thoughts?

This is a FanPost, written by a member of the TOC community. It does not represent the official positions of The Only Colors, Inc.--largely because we have no official positions.

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