Who Are the Best Decision Makers in the Big Ten?

[I haven't had time to digest this. But when Mike Rogers crunches a bunch of numbers, they get bumped. -KJ]

One of the better basketball blogs I've started following -- "better" is contingent on the fact that you enjoy some heavy math and basketball nerdery -- is the Basketball Distribution blog penned by Nathan Walker. I'm not an NBA fan, but he dabbles in college data as well.

Today he posted something he calls Offensive Decision Percentage (OD%). Looking it over, it seemed simple enough and I figured that with some spare time today, I'd throw this together for the Big Ten. I used the College Basketball section of the Sports Reference empire to grab the raw stats for every player in the Big Ten. Plug-and-chug and away we go.

Firstly, this data is for the entire season. Secondly, I imposed a minimum of 350 minutes played (average from all of the players is around 366 minutes this year, so 350 seemed like a decent cut off). Below are your top 15 "decision makers" in the Big Ten this year.

Rk	Player	Tm	Class	Pos	OD%
1	Lewis Jackson	PUR	JR	G	0.616
2	Ryne Smith	PUR	JR	G	0.608
3	Bill Cole	ILL	SR	F	0.608
4	Aaron Craft	OSU	FR	G	0.602
5	Darius Morris	MICH	SO	G	0.600
6	Jordan Taylor	WIS	JR	G	0.596
7	Josh Gasser	WIS	FR	G	0.594
8	Jon Diebler	OSU	SR	W	0.587
9	Jordan Hulls	IND	SO	G	0.586
10	Demetri McCamey	ILL	SR	G	0.583
11	Jared Sullinger	OSU	FR	F	0.580
12	Tim Frazier	PSU	SO	G	0.575
13	Jeff Brooks	PSU	SR	F	0.571
14	Luka Mirkovic	NW	JR	F	0.568
15	John Shurna	NW	JR	F	0.567

Nary a Spartan in sight. In fact, 16th and 17th on the list are also Wildcats in Alex Marcofullio and Michael Thompson. As you can see, it's pretty guard-heavy, which one would expect.

Now, your MSU Spartans on the list, with the same 350 minute stipulation.

Rk	Player	Tm	Class	Pos	OD%
1	Draymond Green	MSU	JR	W	0.537
2	Delvon Roe	MSU	JR	F	0.517
3	Kalin Lucas	MSU	SR	G	0.515
4	Korie Lucious	MSU	JR	G	0.487
5	Keith Appling	MSU	FR	G	0.463
6	Durrell Summers	MSU	SR	W	0.405

Draymond I'd expect to see atop the list (or near it), but I wouldn't peg Delvon Roe as being (marginally) in second place.

Now, this is all great and whatnot, but we don't have a baseline yet. Well, instead of just having the straight-average OD%, I calculated the average for each position I used -- Forwards, Guards, Wings which, again, were categorized based on player's height. I only did this because after I grabbed all the data, I realized I was skipping over the listed position on the Sports-Reference page.

Armed with this, I came up with OD+, which is Adjusted Offensive Decision Percentage. It's adjusted for the positional average -- can we really hold forwards and guards to the same 'decision making' standards? I don't think so -- and puts it on a scale where 100 is the average and each point above/below that is equal to 1% better than average.

Using that, here are the top 10 guards.

Rk	Player	Tm	Class	Pos	OD%	OD+
1	Lewis Jackson	PUR	JR	G	0.616	116
2	Ryne Smith	PUR	JR	G	0.608	115
3	Aaron Craft	OSU	FR	G	0.602	114
4	Darius Morris	MICH	SO	G	0.600	113
5	Jordan Taylor	WIS	JR	G	0.596	113
6	Josh Gasser	WIS	FR	G	0.594	112
7	Jordan Hulls	IND	SO	G	0.586	111
8	Demetri McCamey	ILL	SR	G	0.583	110
9	Tim Frazier	PSU	SO	G	0.575	109
10	Alex Marcotullio	NW	SO	G	0.560	106

Again, nary a Spartan in sight. Purdue's well represented as are the Badgers. Not surprising. Darius Morris shines for the Wolverines. He ranked well in PORPAG I posted yesterday and this might help explain that to a degree.

The Wings:

Rk	Player	Tm	Class	Pos	OD%	OD+
1	Jon Diebler	OSU	SR	W	0.587	121
2	David Lighty	OSU	SR	W	0.549	114
3	Tim Jarmusz	WIS	SR	W	0.546	113
4	Jeremiah Rivers	IND	SR	W	0.542	112
5	Draymond Green	MSU	JR	W	0.537	111
6	William Buford	OSU	JR	W	0.524	108
7	D.J. Byrd	PUR	SO	W	0.517	107
8	Jereme Richmond	ILL	FR	W	0.517	107
9	Kelsey Barlow	PUR	SO	W	0.513	106
10	Mike Bruesewitz	WIS	SO	W	0.513	106

And now Ohio State joins Purdue as teams with multiple guys in the top ten. Diebler -- who I'm 90% sure came in the same recruiting class as Scoonie Penn and Michael Redd -- has a sizable lead on teammate David Lighty. You had to know Draymond would rate in the top five or so in this metric for his position.

And, finally, the forwards:

Rk	Player	Tm	Class	Pos	OD%	OD+
1	Bill Cole	ILL	SR	F	0.608	118
2	Jared Sullinger	OSU	FR	F	0.580	113
3	Jeff Brooks	PSU	SR	F	0.571	111
4	Luka Mirkovic	NW	JR	F	0.568	110
5	John Shurna	NW	JR	F	0.567	110
6	Dallas Lauderdale	OSU	SR	F	0.551	107
7	Mike Davis	ILL	SR	F	0.541	105
8	Trevor Mbakwe	MINN	JR	F	0.534	104
9	Jordan Morgan	MICH	FR	F	0.532	103
10	JaJuan Johnson	PUR	SR	F	0.529	103

A couple Wildcats, Illini, Buckeyes, and no Spartans. Did you know that Bill Cole has a 50% minute percentage for Illinois and leads the entire nation (scroll down to 'all players) in Offensive Rating? Me neither. He's got the third best turnover rate in the country at 7.7% draws one more foul than he commits per 40 minutes, and has a 66.4 true shooting percentage and 64.8 effective field goal percentage. He's been a beast for Illinois.

Now, the top 20 in all positions, sorted by OD+:

Rk	Player	Tm	Class	Pos	OD%	OD+
1	Jon Diebler	OSU	SR	W	0.587	121
2	Bill Cole	ILL	SR	F	0.608	118
3	Lewis Jackson	PUR	JR	G	0.616	116
4	Ryne Smith	PUR	JR	G	0.608	115
5	Aaron Craft	OSU	FR	G	0.602	114
6	David Lighty	OSU	SR	W	0.549	114
7	Darius Morris	MICH	SO	G	0.600	113
8	Tim Jarmusz	WIS	SR	W	0.546	113
9	Jordan Taylor	WIS	JR	G	0.596	113
10	Jared Sullinger	OSU	FR	F	0.580	113
11	Josh Gasser	WIS	FR	G	0.594	112
12	Jeremiah Rivers	IND	SR	W	0.542	112
13	Draymond Green	MSU	JR	W	0.537	111
14	Jeff Brooks	PSU	SR	F	0.571	111
15	Jordan Hulls	IND	SO	G	0.586	111
16	Demetri McCamey	ILL	SR	G	0.583	110
17	Luka Mirkovic	NW	JR	F	0.568	110
18	John Shurna	NW	JR	F	0.567	110
19	Tim Frazier	PSU	SO	G	0.575	109
20	William Buford	OSU	JR	W	0.524	108

Depressed enough between this list and the PORPAG numbers and, well, witnessing the games on television (or in person) yet? At least Draymond's there.

All Spartans, minimum of 100 minutes (to include guys like Nix and Sherman).

Player	Tm	Class	Pos	OD%	OD+
Draymond Green	MSU	JR	W	0.537	111
Mike Kebler	MSU	SR	G	0.561	106
Garrick Sherman	MSU	SO	F	0.541	105
Delvon Roe	MSU	JR	F	0.517	100
Austin Thornton	MSU	JR	W	0.477	99
Derrick Nix	MSU	SO	F	0.504	98
Kalin Lucas	MSU	SR	G	0.515	97
Korie Lucious	MSU	JR	G	0.487	92
Keith Appling	MSU	FR	G	0.463	87
Durrell Summers	MSU	SR	W	0.405	84
Adreian Payne	MSU	FR	F	0.390	76

Another huge cliff from Draymond to anyone else in a metric. I'd like Lucas to rate better than he does. I was kind of shocked he is below-average. Considering the season, though, I guess it's not too surprising. Appling and Summers really haven't been good -- not shocked given the relative lack of assists that Summers dishes out.

In case you were interested, here's the baseline OD% I got for each position:

F - .515
G - .529
W - .483

Thoughts?

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