Freedom's Just Another Word for Nothing Left to Lose: Wisconsin Preview
by KJ@theonlycolors on Feb 5, 2011 11:35 AM CST
in Michigan State Spartans Basketball
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PrintTHE KOHL CENTER, MADISON, WISCONSIN
SUNDAY: 1:00 PM ET
TV: CBS (Gus Johnson, Clark Kellogg)
ONLINE RADIO FEED: Spartan Sports Network
At this point, previewing the opponent hardly seems worthwhile. MSU's performance level hasn't correlated too closely at all with opponent quality over the last several games. So we'll keep this short.
If ever the statement "They don't beat themselves" applied to a team, it applies to this Badgers squad. Wisconsin leads the Big Ten in conference-only offensive efficiency (1.16) almost entirely on the strength of of turning the ball over on just 10.5% of their possessions and missing just 14.8% of their shots from the free throw line. Those are both insanely-low numbers for a team halfway through its conference schedule.
Wisconsin's been pretty good on defense too, ranking 3rd in the Big Ten in conference-only efficiency (1.03). Opponents are making only 33.1% of their three-point attempts and pulling down just 28.7% of offensive rebounding opportunities.
The Badgers have gone 4-1 since losing to MSU in the comeback OT thriller in East Lansing, winning at home against Illinois, Indiana, and Purdue and splitting road games against Penn State (loss) and Northwestern (win). Bo Ryan has the team operating at standard levels of computer-impressing efficiency; four of Wisconsin's six Big Ten wins have been by double digits, while all three loses have been in single digits.
Jon Leuer has upped his game even further, averaging 21.4 points/game over the last five games (converting 19 of 20 free throws attempts over that period). Delvon Roe will have a tough task replicating his defensive mastery of over Leuer the first time the teams met (Leuer was 3-9 from the field in that game). Jordan Taylor's been consistently good throughout Big Ten play, averaging 19.7 points/game, while Keaton Nankivil has given the team a very dangerous third scoring option by making 54.8% of his 3-point attempts in conference play.
On the Spartan side of the equation, psychoanalysis is the only game left in town. From Rexrode:
A three-hour meeting Thursday included the players signing a board in the team's film room. The non-seniors signed their commitment to the seniors. The seniors signed their commitment to the rest of the team. Then they all prayed together.
What does it mean?
"Right now it pretty much means nothing," Durrell Summers said. "Actions speak louder than words."
While a three-hour team meeting doesn't guarantee anything at all in terms of improved performance, it certainly would have been a bad sign if the team hadn't talked at length about pulling together and pulling up out of this nosedive. (On the other hand, I could have done without the various player quotes about teammates in that Rexrode post. Derrick Nix, in particular, could probably be a little less opinionated about other players considering he's only been making major contributions for two games. Get it all out of your system, I guess.)
(Also on the psychoanalysis front: While it seems pretty silly to count an ALL CAPS tweet as a positive indicator, if there's any individual anywhere with the credibility to pull this team together right now, Travis Walton is probably that guy.)
On paper, and off the paper for that matter, this game looks like as a big a longshot any MSU has faced in a long time: a road game in a place the team rarely wins even when it's playing well against a team that appears to be peaking in terms of offensive efficiency while attempting to bounce back from an utterly abysmal loss. KenPom predicts a 65-55 Wisconsin win, and that feels generous.
If there's a positive spin here, it's this: At this point, absolutely no one anywhere expects MSU to win this game. Maybe with the burden of expectations completely lifted, the team relaxes a bit on offense and starts making shots. If they come out with the intensity that the locker room come-to-Jesus moment would signal (in a Disney movie, at least), the defense could follow suit.
That's right: I'm telling you there's maybe some hope because there is no hope. I told you this preview may not be all that worthwhile.
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In a weird way, it is liberating. I’m excited about the possibility of a win tomorrow in part because the idea of any win is exciting at this point. If MSU’s season had been going smoother, I’d be chalking this up as a loss and looking ahead to more winnable games. Since there aren’t many games looking “winnable” right now, tomorrow is as important as any.
Does any of that make any sense? I can’t tell right now. Regardless, go Green! Let’s sweep the Badgers and get this thing on track.
"And how much are intangibles worth? 10%? 20%?" - kj@theonlycolors
quotant quotables
good quotes on rexrode from the team. def. worth a read.
i 100% see this team winning in wisconsin. iif ever there was a time where an inspiried performance, now is the time. i see both lucas and summers being very agressive attacking the basket. postpplayers virtually body slamming people for rebounds. im excited for this game.
and go packers?
100%?
Our fanbase has clearly gone insane from the tribulations of this shipwreck season. A team meeting with a vow of playing harder means nothing. How they play on the floor means everything – and they will play lousily. The second things go sour, they will collapse.
100%
thats an insult brotha. im far from insane and was actually the first to say something was wrong with durrell, now thats the general consensus. statetradomus.
were winning this game. i am a golden god.
Well, i'm not 100%
but I do think this is a good time for a big game. Teams can sometimes band together after adversity like this, especially against a rival (our biggest rival in the last 10 years IMO). I still believe we have an incredible good amount of individual talent, but, you know … team sport
luttez pour les seuls couleurs, vert et blanc
Great, great headline
I can think of countless times that Tom Izzo teams have been written off as done. For some reason this team and program is at it’s best the more doubters it has.
I think back to Drew Sharp essentially calling seniors Alan Anderson, Kelvin Torbert, and Chris hill “losers” after they got beat by Iowa in the Big Ten Tournament. They responded by going to the Final Four, beating NCAA bluebloods Duke and Kentucky in the process.
When Shannon brown left early lots of people predicted the NCAA tourney stretch was going to come to an end. Drew Neitzel put them on their back and they got there. Sealing it with a win over #1 Wisconsin.
Hell even last year. They lose the first game of the B10 tournament. Izzo is benching/suspending players. MSU gets a 5 seed and becomes a popular pick for the 12/5 upset. They then lose Kalin, people really write them off. and they go on a run.
Now, everyone is writing them off. The NCAA tourney streak is assumed to be over. Mike Valenti is calling them out, the detroit columnists are taking shots at them. If they can’t come together now, then it ain’t happening.
Of course the major hole in this theory is that if they couldn’t circle the wagons after losing at home against Michigan I don’t know how much closer your back canbe to the wall than that.
I’m not confident by any means about this game. But at this point, almost nothing would surprise me short of Kalin and Durrell getting into a full fledged fist fight with Izzo and Nix. Anything else seems to be entirely in the realm of the possible
Am I the only one who are disappointed with Summers words?
Really.. you have a 3 hour meeting trying to create some unity on the team - and his take walking away from that is ‘it is meaningless’?
Really.. you have a 3 hour meeting trying to create some unity on the team - and his take walking away from that is ‘it is meaningless’?Guess that shouldn’t surprise me since this is the same kid who things that the hall-of-fame-to-be coach is wrong in regards to what he thinks it takes to have a winning team.
Summers...
I think what he’s saying is that until they prove they can play, the meeting means nothing. They can say all they want in a meeting room, but it wont actually mean anything until they start winning basketball games. Dont get me wrong, Summers never seems to give 100% or even care that much, but dont take his quote the wrong way…
Hopefully
Izzo has said to Summers:
“I know you dont want to be here Durrell. But if you want to ever have a chance of being drafted, making millions and playing in the NBA you need to start actually playing with some sense of urgency. Otherwise you can have a great career in Turkey”
Maybe, even if he doesnt care about his team, he can care about his life.
Forget the psychologist
Do we have a staff hypnotist? We need someone who can convince this team that they are the 1999-2000 Spartans, who dispatched Wisconsin four times.
Well I have no idea what to expect
I could see us making things competitive and losing close. I could see us losing big. I really have a hard time picturing how we come out of Madison with a win, but I guess we’ve got the freedom of hitting rock bottom on our side, so maybe that will help in some perverse way. I will say this team seems to play to the level of the competition more than any other team I’ve watched over the years, hence the nail biters and overtime games against just about everyone from Wisconsin (top of the league) to U of M and IU (more toward the bottom). I guess that gives me a little hope. I’m really not sure how much a team meeting can do.
I will make one point about that Final Four team with Anderson, Hill and Torbert – they underachieved only in relation to a historically good Illinois team, and if you look at their statistical profile you can see the potential for a deep tourney run in plain sight. They were “losers” only if your expectations are completely out of whack – I think they only lost 3 conference games, which would win an outright conference title a lot of years. This team does not have that kind of profile. Stats aren’t everything, but they’re not nothing either.
I too wish Nix would keep his mouth shut about senior leadership. He’s had his own issues with attitude this year, and hasn’t exactly had to fight to come back from a career threatening injury like one of those seniors he’s talking about has, nor has he accomplished anything near as much in his career.
Agreed.
Illinois fielded the best team in school history in 04-05. That was a very good Spartan team.
Meetings, meh. Something had to be said after the pantsing in Iowa. Wish it hadn’t been aired publicly. But that’s modern sport, I suppose.
Nix needs more accomplishment on the floor prior to running his mouth. Really, really wasn’t his place to be speaking out like that.
I don’t know what to expect. I just hope for a really good effort. That place is almost impossible to win in, and if any of Hightower, Valentine, or Burr are there, it becomes impossible with all the flopping that they reward up there.
Let’s hope for a good stand by our guys, regardless of result. Sad that it’s come to that, but that’s where I am with this team.
It's National TV
So you can be sure that Hightower and Valentine had the game on their request list before the season started. I’m betting at least one of them will be on the floor.
I really wish it weren't national TV
There’s the potential for a major pantsing in this game. The one silver lining of the Iowa game was that no one who doesn’t get the Big Ten Network saw it. I hope we come out a play well, but if we don’t the game could get very ugly.
by TheCrestedHelm on Feb 6, 2011 8:00 AM CST up reply actions
I was kind of thinking...
I’m actually glad it is. I think it will be just that much more pressure and the team can play hard (and maybe lose) or wilt. Go Green!
by spartanbballfan on Feb 6, 2011 9:01 AM CST up reply actions
The only thing we can hope for to make this a worse scenario
is a tandem of Hightower/Valentine reffing. Heck let’s throw in the older hobbit looking guy too. As if it’s not already impossible to win AT Wisconsin…
I don’t know what pictures Bo Ryan has of refs or whatever but I’ve never seen anything like the way the game of basketball gets set back 100 years like it does every game at the Kohl Center.
I wish it were this easy
I’ve played a lot of basketball in my past and I know what it is like to play with talented individuals but bad chemistry. It’s not something that just gets rectified after a 3 hour meeting. It’s not as easy as player rededicating themselves.
Go look at the B10 records of the 6 Izzo teams that made it to the Final 4. All have had less than 4 losses in the B10. So, maybe they didn’t win the B10 title, but 15-3, 14-4. That’s really good in a competitive league. Those teams played good basketball for good chunks of the year.
This team is a different animal. We have some serious physical issues. No imposing player inside. A lack of depth and height on the outside. A very weak bench. Defensive liabilities all over the place.
We are what we are and right now we are an NIT team. I really hope I’m wrong. Go Izzo! Go Green! Go White! I’d like to see nothing more than Bo Ryan’s face turn sour again.
by greensincebirth on Feb 5, 2011 10:38 PM CST reply actions
I think you ARE wrong.
They’d have to win 2 more league games and a B10 tournament game to qualify for the NIT.
We certainly are playing
like a fringe-NIT team, that’s for sure. But, Crashing The Dance has us at a #9 seed, with multiple other at-large teams with worse seeds (Penn St #11, Alabama #14, Boston College #12, Kansas St. #11). You can completely disregard current projections if they keep playing the way they have been, though.
It's not easy being green, this season
Who would have thought hoops would be so frustrating? It had to happen eventually, although, the run has been great. Still (and always) a huge Spartan fan. FFTOC.
From a Purdue fan.
I’ll be cheering on Sparty today, not for the good of our standings but for a team I greatly respect and hold in high regard. Try to take a step back from microanalyzing and realize that you all still have a dangerous team capable of beating anyone. Izzo will not let this team roll over anymore. Go Green!
Oh, they'll roll over, all right.
Hide the children.
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