I wrote up a little PORPAG loving for the Mid American Conference (yeah, I just self-promoted ... myself ... in the first sentence and I feel no shame) that posted today. KJ caught wind of it on Twitter and when I mentioned that I was going to do it for the Big Ten but didn't want to step on any toes, he, well, summed up most MSU fans' feelings pretty succinctly.
So, in the absence of the PORPAG goodness from KJ, I'll bring a heaping load of it for the rest of the TOC-ers that can stomach something else that shows no MSU players in the top 15 of the Big Ten.
Quick little recap on Points Over Replacement Per Adjusted Game, from KJ's own mout -- er... fingers:
- As a refresher, this stat is an attempt to measure the marginal points per game a player contributes to his team on offense above what a "replacement-level" player would provide.
- Major caveats: (1) Basketball is a team, not an individual, sport and (2) this stat tells you nothing whatsoever about defense.
You can read some caveats here. This says nothing about defense, obviously, either.
I left the formula unchanged. This data adjusts to a 62 possession game, which is currently still the average number of possession's per game in the Big Ten conference play this year. It also leaves the "replacement level" at an 88 Offensive Rating (ORtg). From there, it's just plug-and-chug the usage rate (poss%) and minutes (minute%) to get the numbers. These are numbers for the entire season not just conference play, however. So keep that in mind, though we're far enough into the conference season that the complete lack of a non-conference schedule for Northwestern shouldn't be skewing a lot of things.
Jon Leuer gets, I think, the majority of the pub as Wisconsin's offensive force, but Jordan Taylor's been just flat out insane this year. I double-checked the data (which was extracted from KenPom and is through Tuesday's games) and Taylor's combining a slightly less usage rate than Leuer, but mitigates that with more minutes and a sky-high ORtg. Badgers going 1-2 in this metric goes a long way to tell you why they're the second best team in the conference. The OT victory that they just pulled off at Iowa while I was writing this notwithstanding.
Pretty easy to guess the names after Leuer, though. Jared Sullinger's the run-away Big Ten Freshman of the year, Talor Battle is the driving force behind the surprisingly-not-abysmal Penn State squad, and JuJuan Johnson's been the best offensive Boilermaker this year. Darius Morris has shined in Ann Arbor as well.
I'm sure you can guess the top two Spartans on the list. Draymond Green checks in 19th over all and Kalin Lucas is right behind him in 20th. It's a free-fall before you find another Spartan in the 73-player field I have, though.
The ranking on the left of the table is their overall ranking in the conference (of the players that are on KenPom's conference leaderboards). Durrell Summers is much maligned for many things -- most notably I'd guess is the apparent "lack of progression" in matching his great play from last years NCAA Tournament run -- but he's still been an above-average player. KJ's right, Summers is what he is: a good-but-not-all-time-great Spartan like what he gave glimpses of last spring.
Delvon Roe may have committed to defense, but he's still got a decent PORPAG rating. Appling's PORPAG only tells half the story with the tenacious defense he's been playing in conference play. To me, that's been the most enjoyable thing I see when watching MSU. I didn't expect Appling to not only buy in, but be as quality as a defender as he's been in his first year in East Lansing.
Austin Thornton has a better ORtg than I would've guessed. As does Mike Kebler. Both are doing probably as much as you could expect out of both.
Adreian Payne's been a solid defensive player in my opinion this year, but still shows how much room he's got for improvement. He's a project big-man with enormous upside.
I know KJ and co. said that when Korie Lucious was dismissed from the squad it was going to hurt. They also said, though, that if you were to lose one of the regulars from the rotation, offensively, it'd be him you'd miss the least. This bears that out. He's been the least efficient offensive regular -- and by a sizable margin -- which combined with his minutes and usage produced about as bad of a PORPAG as you could find in the conference.
The entire list is below.
|62||Roy Devyn Marble||Iowa||Fr||0.198||0.446||95.8||0.43|
The only "full" roster of players included were for MSU. The rest are subject to the minimum of 40% minutes played that KenPom imposes for his conference leader boards. Thoughts?