FanPost

Mid-season Big Ten PORPAG

[Frontpaged!  --LVS.]

I wrote up a little PORPAG loving for the Mid American Conference (yeah, I just self-promoted ... myself ... in the first sentence and I feel no shame) that posted today. KJ caught wind of it on Twitter and when I mentioned that I was going to do it for the Big Ten but didn't want to step on any toes, he, well, summed up most MSU fans' feelings pretty succinctly.

So, in the absence of the PORPAG goodness from KJ, I'll bring a heaping load of it for the rest of the TOC-ers that can stomach something else that shows no MSU players in the top 15 of the Big Ten.

Quick little recap on Points Over Replacement Per Adjusted Game, from KJ's own mout -- er... fingers:

  • As a refresher, this stat is an attempt to measure the marginal points per game a player contributes to his team on offense above what a "replacement-level" player would provide.
  • Major caveats: (1) Basketball is a team, not an individual, sport and (2) this stat tells you nothing whatsoever about defense.

You can read some caveats here. This says nothing about defense, obviously, either.

I left the formula unchanged. This data adjusts to a 62 possession game, which is currently still the average number of possession's per game in the Big Ten conference play this year. It also leaves the "replacement level" at an 88 Offensive Rating (ORtg). From there, it's just plug-and-chug the usage rate (poss%) and minutes (minute%) to get the numbers. These are numbers for the entire season not just conference play, however. So keep that in mind, though we're far enough into the conference season that the complete lack of a non-conference schedule for Northwestern shouldn't be skewing a lot of things.

 

Rk Player Team Yr Poss% Min% ORtg PORPAG
1 Jordan Taylor WIS Jr 0.262 0.882 131.8 6.28
2 Jon Leuer WIS Sr 0.295 0.827 120.4 4.90
3 Jared Sullinger OSU Fr 0.268 0.780 123.6 4.61
4 Talor Battle PSU Sr 0.286 0.939 112.8 4.13
5 JaJuan Johnson PUR Sr 0.270 0.866 115.5 3.99
6 Darius Morris MICH So 0.289 0.860 112.6 3.79
7 John Shurna NW Jr 0.256 0.731 120.3 3.75
8 Jon Diebler OSU Sr 0.125 0.861 139.1 3.41
9 Demetri McCamey ILL Sr 0.255 0.815 114.4 3.40
10 Blake Hoffarber MINN Sr 0.196 0.862 119.3 3.28
11 Jeff Brooks PSU Sr 0.211 0.783 120.0 3.28
12 E'Twaun Moore PUR Sr 0.270 0.831 111.0 3.20
13 Jordan Hulls IND So 0.165 0.753 128.0 3.08
14 Keaton Nankivil WIS Sr 0.172 0.651 132.2 3.07
15 Michael Thompson NW Sr 0.210 0.895 114.0 3.03

 

Jon Leuer gets, I think, the majority of the pub as Wisconsin's offensive force, but Jordan Taylor's been just flat out insane this year. I double-checked the data (which was extracted from KenPom and is through Tuesday's games) and Taylor's  combining a slightly less usage rate than Leuer, but mitigates that with more minutes and a sky-high ORtg.  Badgers going 1-2 in this metric goes a long way to tell you why they're the second best team in the conference. The OT victory that they just pulled off at Iowa while I was writing this notwithstanding.

Pretty easy to guess the names after Leuer, though. Jared Sullinger's the run-away Big Ten Freshman of the year, Talor Battle is the driving force behind the surprisingly-not-abysmal Penn State squad, and JuJuan Johnson's been the best offensive Boilermaker this year. Darius Morris has shined in Ann Arbor as well.

I'm sure you can guess the top two Spartans on the list. Draymond Green checks in 19th over all and Kalin Lucas is right behind him in 20th. It's a free-fall before you find another Spartan in the 73-player field I have, though.

 

Rk Player Team Yr Poss% Min% ORtg PORPAG
19 Draymond Green MSU Jr 0.254 0.732 109.4 2.47
20 Kalin Lucas MSU Sr 0.263 0.778 106.1 2.30
41 Durrell Summers MSU Sr 0.217 0.741 101.0 1.30
46 Delvon Roe MSU Jr 0.158 0.606 106.5 1.10
58 Keith Appling MSU Fr 0.149 0.529 99.3 0.55
64 Derrick Nix MSU So 0.193 0.183 103.3 0.34
65 Garrick Sherman MSU So 0.134 0.309 100.7 0.33
66 Austin Thornton MSU Jr 0.141 0.282 100.8 0.32
70 Korie Lucious MSU Jr 0.206 0.471 92.1 0.25
72 Mike Kebler MSU Sr 0.098 0.133 102.7 0.12
73 Adreian Payne MSU Fr 0.193 0.212 84.2 -0.10

 

The ranking on the left of the table is their overall ranking in the conference (of the players that are on KenPom's conference leaderboards). Durrell Summers is much maligned for many things -- most notably I'd guess is the apparent "lack of progression" in matching his great play from last years NCAA Tournament  run -- but he's still been an above-average player. KJ's right, Summers is what he is: a good-but-not-all-time-great Spartan like what he gave glimpses of last spring.

Delvon Roe may have committed to defense, but he's still got a decent PORPAG rating. Appling's PORPAG only tells half the story with the tenacious defense he's been playing in conference play. To me, that's been the most enjoyable thing I see when watching MSU. I didn't expect Appling to not only buy in, but be as quality as a defender as he's been in his first year in East Lansing.

Austin Thornton has a better ORtg than I would've guessed. As does Mike Kebler. Both are doing probably as much as you could expect out of both.

Adreian Payne's been a solid defensive player in my opinion this year, but still shows how much room he's got for improvement. He's a project big-man with enormous upside.

I know KJ and co. said that when Korie Lucious was dismissed from the squad it was going to hurt. They also said, though, that if you were to lose one of the regulars from the rotation, offensively, it'd be him you'd miss the least. This bears that out. He's been the least efficient offensive regular -- and by a sizable margin -- which combined with his minutes and usage produced about as bad of a PORPAG as you could find in the conference.

The entire list is below.

 

Rk Player Team Yr Poss% Min% ORtg PORPAG
1 Jordan Taylor WIS Jr 0.262 0.882 131.8 6.28
2 Jon Leuer WIS Sr 0.295 0.827 120.4 4.90
3 Jared Sullinger OSU Fr 0.268 0.780 123.6 4.61
4 Talor Battle PSU Sr 0.286 0.939 112.8 4.13
5 JaJuan Johnson PUR Sr 0.270 0.866 115.5 3.99
6 Darius Morris MICH So 0.289 0.860 112.6 3.79
7 John Shurna NW Jr 0.256 0.731 120.3 3.75
8 Jon Diebler OSU Sr 0.125 0.861 139.1 3.41
9 Demetri McCamey ILL Sr 0.255 0.815 114.4 3.40
10 Blake Hoffarber MINN Sr 0.196 0.862 119.3 3.28
11 Jeff Brooks PSU Sr 0.211 0.783 120.0 3.28
12 E'Twaun Moore PUR Sr 0.270 0.831 111.0 3.20
13 Jordan Hulls IND So 0.165 0.753 128.0 3.08
14 Keaton Nankivil WIS Sr 0.172 0.651 132.2 3.07
15 Michael Thompson NW Sr 0.210 0.895 114.0 3.03
16 David Lighty OSU Sr 0.216 0.778 115.8 2.90
17 Christian Watford IND So 0.287 0.673 111.1 2.77
18 William Buford OSU Jr 0.232 0.733 111.9 2.52
19 Draymond Green MSU Jr 0.254 0.732 109.4 2.47
20 Kalin Lucas MSU Sr 0.263 0.778 106.1 2.30
21 Zack Novak MICH Jr 0.135 0.858 119.7 2.28
22 Trevor Mbakwe MINN Jr 0.231 0.729 108.3 2.12
23 Ryne Smith PUR Jr 0.114 0.563 139.9 2.07
24 Luka Mirkovic NW Jr 0.202 0.617 113.9 2.00
25 Josh Gasser WIS Fr 0.144 0.640 122.6 1.98
26 Matt Gatens Iowa Jr 0.188 0.752 110.2 1.95
27 Bill Cole ILL Sr 0.117 0.499 141.6 1.94
28 Mike Davis ILL Sr 0.183 0.777 110.0 1.94
29 Ralph Sampson MINN Jr 0.196 0.723 109.6 1.90
30 Drew Crawford NW So 0.235 0.734 104.6 1.78
31 Mike Tisdale ILL Sr 0.207 0.634 108.9 1.70
32 Tim Hardaway MICH Fr 0.240 0.707 104.0 1.68
33 David Jackson PSU Sr 0.187 0.736 107.2 1.64
34 Tim Jarmusz WIS Sr 0.095 0.579 134.9 1.60
35 D.J. Richardson ILL So 0.160 0.737 109.2 1.55
36 Lewis Jackson PUR Jr 0.183 0.611 110.3 1.55
37 Melsahn Basabe Iowa Fr 0.229 0.599 104.9 1.44
38 Aaron Craft OSU Fr 0.166 0.699 107.7 1.42
39 Mike Bruesewitz WIS So 0.142 0.514 118.2 1.37
40 Jordan Morgan MICH Fr 0.207 0.590 105.5 1.33
41 Durrell Summers MSU Sr 0.217 0.741 101.0 1.30
42 Victor Oladipo IND Fr 0.240 0.447 107.2 1.28
43 Jereme Richmond ILL Fr 0.222 0.518 104.1 1.15
44 JerShon Cobb NW Fr 0.176 0.571 105.9 1.12
45 Alex Marcotullio NW So 0.154 0.501 111.0 1.10
46 Delvon Roe MSU Jr 0.158 0.606 106.5 1.10
47 Brandon Paul ILL So 0.232 0.523 102.2 1.07
48 D.J. Byrd PUR So 0.147 0.482 112.2 1.06
49 Jarryd Cole Iowa Sr 0.158 0.566 105.7 0.98
50 Andrew Jones PSU Sr 0.137 0.765 102.1 0.92
51 Dallas Lauderdale OSU Sr 0.127 0.447 112.4 0.86
52 Stu Douglass MICH Jr 0.163 0.698 99.9 0.84
53 Al Nolen MINN Sr 0.190 0.443 103.3 0.80
54 Verdell Jones IND Jr 0.293 0.555 94.3 0.64
55 Rodney Williams MINN So 0.169 0.605 97.6 0.61
56 Tom Pritchard IND Jr 0.090 0.436 111.6 0.57
57 Evan Smotrycz MICH Fr 0.193 0.474 98.0 0.57
58 Keith Appling MSU Fr 0.149 0.529 99.3 0.55
59 Colton Iverson MINN Jr 0.228 0.449 96.0 0.51
60 Bryce Cartwright Iowa Jr 0.261 0.751 92.0 0.49
61 Jeremiah Rivers IND Sr 0.128 0.576 98.4 0.48
62 Roy Devyn Marble Iowa Fr 0.198 0.446 95.8 0.43
63 Eric May Iowa So 0.200 0.634 93.3 0.42
64 Derrick Nix MSU So 0.193 0.183 103.3 0.34
65 Garrick Sherman MSU So 0.134 0.309 100.7 0.33
66 Austin Thornton MSU Jr 0.141 0.282 100.8 0.32
67 Terone Johnson PUR Fr 0.194 0.462 93.6 0.31
68 Tim Frazier PSU So 0.169 0.715 92.1 0.31
69 Zach McCabe Iowa Fr 0.185 0.520 93.0 0.30
70 Korie Lucious MSU Jr 0.206 0.471 92.1 0.25
71 Kelsey Barlow PUR So 0.195 0.483 92.2 0.25
72 Mike Kebler MSU Sr 0.098 0.133 102.7 0.12
73 Adreian Payne MSU Fr 0.193 0.212 84.2 -0.10

 

The only "full" roster of players included were for MSU. The rest are subject to the minimum of 40% minutes played that KenPom imposes for his conference leader boards. Thoughts?

This is a FanPost, written by a member of the TOC community. It does not represent the official positions of The Only Colors, Inc.--largely because we have no official positions.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join The Only Colors

You must be a member of The Only Colors to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Only Colors. You should read them.

Join The Only Colors

You must be a member of The Only Colors to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Only Colors. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker